1-14-11 Recap of the days events/postings

Facts:

1.       Biden meeting with Nufaifi President: Iraq looking to raise standard of living

2.       Biden’s visit making a positive impact – Taking care of security position

3.       US wants to lift all sanctions

4.       Demonstrations over non-payment of grants and repeated delays

5.       Iraq on the way to emerge from Chapter VII

6.       Federal reserve becomes most profitable bank in history

7.       United States would seek to resolve the question of compensation of Kuwait

8.       Kuwait will not stand in the way of Iraq getting out of Chapter 7

Rumors:

1.       Okie rumor from 1-13 – We are there

2.       Skype chat rumor – RV in 5 hrs

3.       Skype chat – Comments about Currency Chatter con call – RV in days or hours

4.       Bank rumor – Bank worker given standby notice

5.       Chat regarding rollout in ME

6.       More out-o- box thinking

7.       More rumors regarding ME RV

8.       Where are with the SDR updates?

9.       Summation of intel

10.   Good posting from PD

11.   Another bank rumor that was debunked

12.   Someone’s view on where we stand

13.   TK rumor

14.   Jordan bank information confirmation

15.   ME bank news can’t be true….

16.   Chase bank rumor

17.   Another Jordan bank confirmation

18.   Confirmation of $3.22 rate on OANDA

Where Are We At?

1.       Once again, we see today that Biden is driving closure to the issues preventing Iraq from exiting the remaining sanctions in Chapter VII.  Iraq and Kuwait must agree on the border issues and the compensation files.  It appears that the US may step in and handle the compensation files (pay Kuwait),  but that is speculation on my part.  There are some articles that to me appear to suggest this.  Your interpretation may be different.  In general, I saw a number of articles today about Biden and meetings with Iraqi officials.  Things are moving forward.

2.       As it relates to the National Security positions being filled and closed out, and to the official government announcement, there was an article that suggested the National Security positions would be filled before March.  If you assume that this constitutes completion of the GOI and that a formal announcement will follow, then we can assume that this will happen before March.  If you also assume that Shabi’s statement about redenominating will happen directly after government formation, then you will see that happen before March.  If you’re in this camp, then you probably don’t believe all the news about the RV happening in the ME with Kuwait and Jordan banks.

3.       Lots of rumors today.  Most are saying next week for cash out and there were plenty of bank rumors today with some claiming US banks will cash out.  I know for a fact that the Chase bank rumor was debunked.  We also saw more confusion over whether the Kuwait and Jordan bank information was either true or not.  You’ll have to decide for yourself which you want to believe.  The best of the rumor postings is related to the discussions about how this may be a slow rollout of the RV.  I suggest you take the time to read the discussions. Good stuff.

What’s left?

1. Reading of the budget for the second time.
2. Closure on Security positions (5 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Announcement of agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of Chapter 7
6. RV/RI

What’s It All Mean?

1.       Things are still moving forwards as it relates to Iraq getting out of Chapter 7.  There were a few articles related to the US wanting to see Iraq out of Chapter 7 and others that said Kuwait would not stand in the way of Iraq getting out of 7.

2.       As it relates to all the banking activity in the ME, we must still wait to see our rate here.  In the interim, the best we can do is watch the rumors fly in regarding this and decide for ourselves if the information is true or not.  If you’re like me, an absolute confirmation would make me feel really great that things have truly started.  Then, I can buy into the slow rollout approach.  I’m not saying I don’t buy into any of it, but the jury is still out since I’ve seen some conflicting information.  I am, however, hopeful!