2-5-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     Maliki confirms news of oil contracts approval between GOI and Kurdistan

2.     Free block: I will not vote on the budget unless allocated 15% of the salaries of oil to the Iraqi people

3.     Parliament ends 29th session; Will reconvene Monday

4.     CBI warns of negative effects from delay in approving the budget in 2011

5.     Start The Kurdistan Alliance, confirms the second phase of the initiative Barzani soon

6.     Allawi, Jaafari to discuss with the Council for the high-level policy and complete the cabinet reshuffle

7.     Iraq Put the Name of a Former Colonel in the Army For the Post of Defense Minister

8.     Sources: Put Name of Baqir Jabr Al-Zubaidi, Vice President of Policy Board

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     None

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     Skype chat - RUMOR from Athena

2.     Blaino rumor

Where Are We At?

1.     Slow day today!  About the biggest news there was today in government formation is related to the fact that they met today in Parliament to discuss the first reading of the draft law of the Federal Court.  There seems to be much debate as to whether Parliament has the ability to submit draft laws and whether there is a violation of separation of powers between it and the executive branch.  Needless to say, there needs to be more discussion.  The next meeting is Monday.  Regarding the Council for the strategic policy, Allawi met with Jaafari to discuss ways to accelerate the completion of his cabinet and its role in supporting and developing the government.  Finally, more names are being submitted for open positions.

2.      In budget news, Saleh spoke out today about the delays.  He said the delays on passing the budget would weaken the economic growth of the country.  He said the budget was built according to an economic growth rate assumption of 10%.  The implication here is that they will not achieve the 10% growth due to the fact that they haven’t approved the budget; hence, they cannot start on major projects that will have a positive impact on the growth of the country.  In other budget related news, there were members of the Sadr bloc who demanded that 15% of the oil revenues go to the salaries of the people.  Another said he wanted 25%.  Both are saying they will not allow the budget to pass unless they get what they are asking for.

3.     On the rumor front, we have much of the same news.  Everything is done and we’re just waiting for the RV sometime this week.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the first third time

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.     From looking at the news regarding government formation, it still appears that there is a sense of urgency to get things done.  Yet, there are still outstanding issues that may take a little more time to resolve….meaning….no GOI within days.  More specifically, the issues between Allawi and Maliki on Allawi’s new branch of government may take some time to resolve.  Also, today’s news said that Allawi was calling on the Kurds to assist in resolving the issues between him and Maliki.  Could this get done in a day?  Maybe, but not likely.  I can see them spending another couple weeks at minimum just to get to the point where they are in agreement.  All this, of course, assumes the GOI is not done.  There are some who are saying they are being told it is.  I hope it is done for their sake.  If not, I hope they work hard to get it done within days and not weeks.  Remember, there is a GCC meeting on the 17^th of this month.  Frank said they would need to RV prior to the GCC meeting.  Otherwise, they would not be able to join the GCC.  But, to RV, Shabibi needs to see the government announced.  Less than 12 days to go.

2.     Regarding the budget, it has been days since we’ve heard news of the budget being read.  The last it was in Parliament, they reviewed the amendments.  It was then said that they would bring the budget to Parliament for a vote.  I haven’t seen any news on this.  It is rumored the budget is done and was already posted in the Gazette.   I find it interesting that there really is no news of the budget being voted on.  But wait!  They need a government to ratify it!  Maybe the budget is sitting on the table waiting for the GOI? 

3.     On the rumor front, I’m not seeing news line up with statements that everything is done.  Does this mean the rumors are not true?  Not necessarily.  Only time will tell, of course.  If we see an RV in the midst of all the news of Allawi and Maliki not agreeing on the government formation, then we know everything was done and those who said it were right.  If we do not see the RV, perhaps we need to pay more attention to what is being said in the news.

2-5-11 Blaino rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE THIS POSTING IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ A RUMOR

1. No delay
2. Budget published in the Gazette last Thursday
3. Required 2nd publishing of the budget was Friday, and the 3rd is today
4. Parliament meeting on Sunday will announce GOI
5. Shabibi is not in love with a certain minister
6. Talabani remains concerned about CBI/Maliki issue, but this problem should not have legs
7. Netanyahu discouraged Israeli people from buying IQD, but he is now encouraging them to get all they can now

***********************************************************************************************
[Blaino] OK, there is no delay. Things are progressing as they should.
Thursday the Gazzette published the GOI Buget, making it LAW! Required 2nd publishing
was Friday, 3rd publishing is underway now.

From the Green Zone: Parliment meeting on Sunday, Announcing GOI, "Baby, we got an RV!"
In other news: Shabibi not "in love" with a certain Minister, Talibani remains concerned
about the CBI/Maliki issue... however .... this problem should NOT have legs!

Thanks to the Answer Lady with contributions in other news from Topgunner! Great Peeps,
good Intel! [Blaino] Netanyahu had discouraged the Israeli people from buying IQD until
as recently as 6 months ago. Now he encourages them to get all they can... NOW!

2-5-11 Skype chat - RUMOR from Athena

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE IF YOU DO NOT LIKE READING ABOUT RUMORS

1. Intel Athena received last night says that we will see this tomorrow and be able to cash in on Monday
2. GOI is complete for sure
3. Banks are ready
4. We will be cashing in this week from all that he has heard
5. Heard the rate of $6.18, but believes it will be $3.18
6. All signs point to RV soon

***********************************************************************************************
. athena] I got some good intel late last night
athena] I am hearing the same thing that we will see this tomorrow and cash in Monday and I am hearing this from all sources
[athena] I do know that the goi is complete for sure as I have said
athena] banks are ready for us this week to cash out, they are done with training and have been ready, just waiting on cbi to release the rate
athena] We will be cashing in this week from all that I hear and believe
athena] ***** I have heard this rate of 6.18 but I myself believe the 3.86, I would love to see the 6.8 believe me, I think it is to high
[*****] ok....I am out of here. bye
[solidgold] athena That is great news and knowing your heart - I believe right along with you.
[17:23:49] *****: [athena] correct, Iraq needs this, notice Maliki cut his salary in half yesterday and today he says he will not seek third term
[2/5/11 11:38:54 AM]
.[athena] ***** I agree honey, I just have no time to read it right now and I have other info that cannot be shared that is all good
[17:36:41] *****: [athena] Things are looking really good and I am very happy what I have been given, all signs point to rv soon

2-5-11 Sources: Put Name of Baqir Jabr Al-Zubaidi, Vice President of Policy Board

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The source said that an MP from the National Alliance, al-Zubaidi, was put forth as a candidate for the post of VP of the Supreme Council strategic policies, which will be headed by Allawi

2-5-11 Iraq Put the Name of a Former Colonel in the Army For the Post of Defense Minister

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of the article

1. An MP from the List said they submitted Salem Daly for the candidate for the Ministry of Defense
2. The List is wary about blocs procrastinating to buy time for Maliki to nominate a candidate for the Ministry of Defense (MOD)
3. The MP said that Salem was an army Colonel and is known for professionalism and craftsmanship
4. She said that the speech on the nomination of Chalabi for the Interior Ministry can't happen because Chalabi doesn't have the professional or administrative capacity for the sensitive position
5. The MP said that the vacant ministries, including the security ministries, need to get resolved because the country is heading towards instability and hopelessness--especially after the Arab events that brought down governments
6. She indicated the security ministries would take months to resolve
7. She said the List has no alternative to the MEW candidate that has been rejected

2-5-11 Allawi, Jaafari to discuss with the Council for the high-level policy and complete the cabinet reshuffle

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Allawi met with Jaafari to discuss the Council for the policy
2. They discussed ways to accelerate the completion of his cabinet and the Council for the strategic policy and its role in supporting and developing the government

2-5-11 Start The Kurdistan Alliance, confirms the second phase of the initiative Barzani soon

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The head of the Kurdistan Alliance bloc said that the 1st phase of Barzani's initiatives ended and that the 2nd phase will begin soon
2. The first phase is comprised of the agreements made between Allawi, Maliki, and Barzani on the agreement of the formation of the Council on policy-making of the nation
3. The implementation of the second stage may have started
4. The second stage may require Barzani to visit Baghdad, or to hold another meeting in Arbil
5. The differences regarding the Council are about the nature of work of the Council
6. There is divergence from all parties about # 5
7. The most controversial issues is whether there will be a presidency of the Council or a public trust (believe this refers to whether the Council will play an oversight role as opposed to an advisor role with no authority)
8. There are disagreements about the nature of the implementation of mandatory resolutions of the Council, if there is 80% support

2-5-11 CBI warns of negative effects from delay in approving the budget in 2011

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. Saleh, the advisor of the CBI, said that delaying the budget anymore than it has already been delayed will weaken the country's economic development and will affect the rates of growth
2. The GOI confirmed that the existing gaps in the 2011 budget is an old legacy of the mechanism for restructuring of the budget in previous years
3. Saleh said the delays in the budget do not affect the monetary policy
4. The CBI noted that the budget was built according to the country's economic growth, which was estimated to be 10%
5. In the opinion of a number of deputies, delaying the budget will disrupt the process of construction, and delay and impede the movement of government and ministries

2-5-11 Parliament ends 29th session; Will reconvene Monday

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of the article

1. The House ended its 29th meeting
2. The first reading of the draft law of the Federal Court was completed
3. The next time Parliament meets will be Monday

Below is from another article regarding the reading of the draft of the Federal Court.  This article detailed more about Parliaments discussions on the draft law.  It appears that there was a debate on whether Parliament has the ability to submit draft laws and discussion on how it should be done.
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In the second paragraph the Council discussed the Federal Court decision on the mechanism for submission of proposals and draft laws, where focused interventions of Representatives, among other positions over the resolution, as some felt that the decision would shape the regime in Iraq from a parliamentary to a presidential, where they will be able to parliament legislation draft a specific law without the consent of the executive branch and that this decision runs counter to the principle of separation of powers required to expedite the enactment of the Federal Court and vote on candidates for membership of the Court, while others point out that the Federal Court decision stopped short of confiscating the role of the House of Representatives, and refer to the Government in issuing proposed legislation on some of the laws that need to money was a position acceptable to the Council, in addition to the assertion that many parliamentary systems give priority to the bills and this does not mean the inability of the House of Representatives to submit draft laws, as the court’s decision for a certain fact that the Atm the right of the Council in the performance of legislative role.

In response to the interventions of Representatives, said Safa al-Din Safi Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs that all authorities related to the legislation and the legislature does not have absolute power to issue laws if there was a violation of the constitution then interfere with the judiciary to overturn these laws.

He said the court ruling does not take away the right of the House of Representatives in the legislation of laws because it’s about the mechanism of presenting the draft law, noting that the Federal Court decision came in line with the mechanism of the legislature so there are no laws that are not shown on the Government and the State Consultative Council to review.

In his contribution to the President of the Council noted that this issue will be discussed by the committee of Parliament and special consideration in the decisions of the Federal Court.

2-5-11 Free block: I will not vote on the budget unless allocated 15% of the salaries of oil to the Iraqi people

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of the article

1. The Sadrists bloc will not vote on the budget unless it allocates 15% of oil revenues for salaries for the people
2. There are 140 to 150 signatures from House members to support this demand
3. They promised the people they will not vote on the budget unless this demand is met

2-5-11 Maliki confirms news of oil contracts approval between GOI and Kurdistan

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliki said that Kurdistan signed contracts with oil companies
2. There is an agreement that the GOI will receive the oil sold by SOMO