1-29-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     Finance Committee: File federal budget on Sunday

2.     Parliament is hosting next Tuesday, the heads of agencies to discuss the decision of the Federal Court

3.     Deficit spending caused the failure to approve the federal budget

4.     Central bank calls on the government to take advantage of deposits banks instead of borrowing from

5.     Allawi confirms that the course of events would not affect the Arab summit

6.     Article IX of the constitution granted the Kurds the right to manage one of the security institutions

7.     Iraq’s parliament will reconvene Monday to discuss the Federal Court decision and the draft budget

8.     Not implemented the terms of the initiative Barzani

9.     A forthcoming meeting between Allawi and Maliki to discuss the outstanding issues

10.  Congress hoped in agreement Allawi and Maliki on the security ministries

11.  Bancor, the name of the global currency that a shocking IMF report is proposing

12.  Iraqi trade: WTO satisfied with Iraqi trade legislation

13.  State Law: near vote on council security policies by ministries           

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Night chats

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     RV rumor from PD

Where Are We At?

1.     Starting with the government formation news, there is still confusion as to when Parliament will meet to discuss the Federal Court decision and the budget.  Monday and Tuesday are the days that are being bounced around.   We also read news that Maliki and Allawi would meet either today or tomorrow to resolve outstanding issues.  The good news is that Allawi is back in town.  The not so good news is that the same article that said he’s back in town said Allawi was not aware of a scheduled meeting with Maliki.  Just as worrisome was the news that not much has been done to implement Barzani’s initiatives (form the government).  Recall that Barzani’s goal was to work with Iraq to complete the formation of the government.  On a brighter note, it does appear that Parliament met today to discuss how to vote on the National Council of strategic policies.  However, it appears that the State of Law doesn’t want the vote on the National Council of strategic policies to go to the House.

2.     On the budget front, there was news that the budget will go to the Standing Committee tomorrow.  It still remains to be seen as to when the budget will go to the House.

3.     On the rumor front, Night spent quite a bit of time today relaying information from his source to everyone on chat.  His source(s) are linking the regional issues to Iraq, which basically should be putting tremendous pressure on Iraq to quickly form their government or face similar situations to what is happening in Tunisia or Egypt.  They are also not happy with what Maliki has done in terms of manipulating the Federal Court to move the independent bodies under his control.  His sources say that Maliki will either be removed, or his powers will be severely limited.  They are tired of both Maliki and Allawi and want action instead of words. 

4.     Someone posted a report to the IMF that outlined a new global or common currency, Bancor.  It was said that this currency would replace all currencies and the author’s (on DD) posting mentioned this is a serious proposal.

5.     Ending this section on a positive note, Iraq made good progress with the WTO.  The WTO reported that they are satisfied with Iraq’s trade legislation! 

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).

2.    Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.     With regards to the government formation, Iraq has developed a bad pattern of delaying the completion of the final 9 ministries, and in completing the government.  Meanwhile, there’s tremendous unrest in the people within that region.  Night has said and continues to say that the unrest will become greater in Iraq.  If Iraq doesn’t complete their government and begin doing things that benefit their people, it is not difficult to imagine that the people of Iraq will increase their violence and demonstrations, and possibly escalate on par with Egypt. At this point, we can only wait and see what Parliament, Maliki, and Allawi do with the remaining items needed to complete the government.  I hope they break their pattern and form.  A mass uprising of the people In Iraq comparable to Egypt does not suggest to me that an RV would be right around the corner.  I do get a feeling from the articles that there is a sense of urgency from government personnel to get the government completed.

2.     The news of WTO’s satisfaction with Iraq’s trade legislation is good news.  This brings Iraq one step closer to being able to become a full member of the WTO, which is definitely something that we would want to see because it means there wouldn’t be anything in their way in terms of global trade.  Of course, there is one thing that Iraq must do, which the WTO said is a requirement.  They must close the gap between their currency and the dollar.  Or to put it in more common terms, they must RV.

3.     The Bancor news immediately brought to mind global settlements.  There was more rumor from the GET team about global settlements today, but I  didn’t read through the whole chat.  In either case, the Bancor currency information is interesting and a little unsettling.  I’m not sure what it would mean to the value of our investment post-RV. 

1-29-11 State Law: Near Vote on Council Security Policies By Ministries

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

Another tough article to interpret

1. It appears that there was a meeting today and that there is agreement to vote in the House for the National Council of strategic policies as well as candidates for the security ministries
2. There are concerns that the State of Law will vote no on voting for the the Presidency of the Council in the House
3. Voting in the House will give legitimacy to Allawi and his new position

1-29-11 Nighthk11 chats (2 chats from today)

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this posting on 1 Dinar

Chat 1:
1. Regional issues in the populace will not wane--it will intensify with Sadr gone
2. If there is no progress in this next session, look for UN to be more direct
3. Maliki will not be able to act with impunity.  He will be placed in check
4. Night is looking for Maliki to be removed
5. News is now flooding out regarding his activities of unlawful corruption
6. Events overlooked in the past are now being brought to the front highlighting these activities
7. There will be progress.  The government and people are demanding forward movement
8. Once the government is seated in full, Shabibi will act
9. Shabibi has been given the full backing by entities more powerful than Iraq can imagine
10. Their interest is the stabilization of Iraq which they are hoping will in turn quell the other ME countries.  Most notably our ally Egypt
11. Maliki will be dealt with either by Parliament or by the UN.  Moon is directly involved by his man Melkert
12. Melkert's report to moon and UNSC is NOT favorable in any sense
13. Failure to implement Barzani's initiative which was approved by the UN-US-UN Sec General will have dire consequences for both Maliki and Allawi
14. This failure has set the stage for direct UN intervention because the entire region is at stake
15. There will be a conference of Arab leaders under the UN to look for ways to resolve this crisis
16. Murbarak has already been warned by the US and UN against the use of his security forces and brutal methods against the people
17. Egypt's issues will not be settled unless Murbarak steps down or is removed
18. Many are openly advocating Maliki's demise from the political scene
19. There are rumblings in the pillars of power to replace him with someone else.  They want Allawi to stay put and assist in getting this under control
20. At this stage in events, it's about people not about the thugs in office
21. Should the leaders fail to heed the council it is within the rehlm of possibility that they will be removed as the regional situation cannot go the way of Lebanon
22. Night was told that they require action not words or promises as it would appear that they have used up all of that without any satisfaction
23. Now they have keyed on Iraq not so much because of Maliki, but their plans to stabilize the ME
24. If Iraq is done properly, it has the capacity to be an example of democracy
25. Look for action on the part of Parliament this week, Maliki's powers to be greatly curtailed, for the SFC to be disolved, and other changes that will be in the interest of Iraq and the region
26. All the changes will be directed by Moon, Biden, Obama and supported by Putin and the UNSC, which includes Hu of China
27. Egypt nor any government that is aligned with the US will fall
28. All that has been relayed to Night in the past 24 hours indicate that Maliki has incensed powerful people and they are tired of him
29. The information Night is relaying comes from people who are in the know or have better knowledge of what is going on and what is expected to happen.  They have stated direct intervention by diplomatic means
30. Night questioned from where and was told that these people run the world
31. There are a few issues that our in our favor: 1) Tunisia; 2) Maliki's attempted coup; 3) Sadr; 4) People rising up to make their voices heard


Chat 2:
1. Night believes Shabi will act immediately after the government is formed
2. Night spoke to someone in DC and they told him Maliki's family is in GB
3. Parliament may disolve the SFC or implement new laws that will severely limit their authority 
4. Night believes that both Allawi and Maliki understand the dangers of Iraq's people rising up and will act to head it off
5. The GOI and everyone in power in Iraq are watching what is going on in the ME and are worried because they have not done right by the people
6. If Iraq continues to postpone, they will be in lots of trouble
7. The US and UN will not help Iraq militarily because the people are exercising their constitutional rights
8. There is a possibility that a coup has been instituted in Iraq without our knowledge, but Night doesn't know for sure
9. Why would they refer to Allawi as the PM?
10. The Iranian's will not be able to stop this movement.  Their people have had it with them too

1-29-11 RV rumor from PD

[*********] Per IMF source (2 in fact) RV by Wed. One was 100% sure. One of them I have known for over 30 years

1-29-11 Iraqi trade: WTO "satisfied" with Iraqi trade legislation January 29, 2011

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. Trade ministry said that the WTO is convinced with the package of legislation passed by the Iraqi Council to support trade policy in the country
2. The WTO focused primarily on the tariff law and ratios set by the Customs Office of entry goods
3. Iraq is seeking permanent membership in the WTO rather than its current status of observer

1-29-11 Bancor, the Name Of The Global Currency That A Shocking IMF Report Is Proposing

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the posting on DD

This is an interesting read regarding a proposal to use the Bancor as a common currency.  The details of the concept are documented in a report, and it is something the IMF recommends.  Interesting.  I wonder if there is linkage to global settlements?  Should i have said that?! ;)

1-29-11 Congress hoped in agreement Allawi and Maliki on the security ministries

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. An MP of the List said they are waiting impatiently for a meeting between Allawi and Maliki to resolve the differences that hinder the completion of the formation of the government and the implementation of political agreements signed between the parties to the President in the government
2. Allawi returned from his trip
3. Allawi said there is no scheduled meeting with Allawi yet
4. The MP said there are commitments signed by the heads of political blocs, including Maliki, according to the initiative of Barzani

1-29-11 A forthcoming meeting between Allawi and al-Maliki to discuss the outstanding issues

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. An MP said that the National Council of the Supreme policies would top the agenda of the upcoming meeting between Allawi and Maliki next week

2. The meeting may not result in resolving all outstanding issues

3. The previous meeting between Allawi and Maliki failed to resolve sticking points, particularly with regard to the vacant ministries and the National Council of the Supreme policies

1-29-11 Not implemented the terms of the initiative Barzani

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. An MP said the initiative by Barzani to form a government has accomplished little
2. He pointed out that parliamentary blocs still have not agreed on the names of candidates to fill the open positions
3. Because there are no candidates, no names will be submitted during its next meeting
4. A woman was nominated for the Ministry of State

1-29-11 Iraq’s parliament will reconvene Monday to discuss the Federal Court decision and the draft budget

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Iraq resumes its sessions on Monday
2. They will discuss the decision of the Federal Court, vote on government formation, and discuss the draft Law of the National Council for the strategic policies
4. The issue of nine vacant ministries will also be on the agenda
5. Nassif said there was a campaign a few days ago to collect signatures to demand Congress to expedite the filling of the vacancies
6. An MP from the Kurdistan alliance said they are working of the next 2 days to address their issues on the budget before approving the budget
7. The cabinet approved the amendments to the budget last Tuesday

I highlighted "vote on government formation" because it was said yesterday that Allawi and Maliki were scheduled to meet this weekend to select candidates for all open positions. Let's hope they meet and actually come to agreement.

1-29-11 Article IX of the Constitution granted the Kurds the right to manage one of the security institutions

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. An MP for the Kurdistan coalition said the Kurds have the right to obtain the security institution in accordance with Article IX of the Constitution
2. Talabani said that the armed forces in Iraq should be represented in parallel between all components of the Iraqi people
3. Talabani said that the Kurds demanded that a share in the security institutions
4. The Kurds want a seat in one of these positions: the ministry of defense, interior, national security, two intelligence and counter-terrorism

1-29-11 Allawi confirms that the course of events would not affect the Arab summit Baghdad

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Allawi said that the events in the Arab countries (Egypt etc.) will not negatively affect the Arab summit to be held in Iraq at the end of March despite changes that may occur in some governments

1-29-11 Central Bank calls on the Government to take advantage of deposits banks instead of borrowing from

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1.The CBI developed a plan to take advantage of the surplus in cash deposits held in banks as an option for government borrow instead of borrowing from the CBI
2. The state has cash deposits of an estimated $32 tril Dinar
3. The CBI refused to lend the government $5 bil dinar of reserve funds to cover the budget
4. The CBI said that loaning the government money from the reserves is illegal

See related posting

1-29-11 Deficit spending caused the failure to approve the federal budget for 2011

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. National Alliance said the failure to approve the 2011 budget is due to a lot of deficit expenditure and resources of the Iraqi State
2. All existing resources in the budget doesn't cover expenditures required by the government
3. There are solutions that may determine 3 options which may cause borrowing from the CBI
4. It was noted that there is reservation regarding borrowing from the CBI
5. It was also mentioned that they could borrow from the IMF
6. The last option was to adjust the operating expenditures to match revenue

See related posting

1-29-11 Parliament is hosting next Tuesday, the heads of agencies to discuss the decision of the Federal Court

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. MP from the List said that parliament will host unrelated chairpersons to discuss the recent Federal Court ruling on the independent bodies
2. They will discuss this on Tuesday, and the purpose of the meeting is to get the chairperson's views
3. The MP from the List said the linkage of the independent bodies to the PM is a mistake and dangerous to the independent bodies

1-29-11 Finance Committee: File Federal Budget on Sunday

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. MP for the parliamentary coalition of Kurdish blocs said that the budget will go to the Standing Committee will receive the budget on Sunday
2. He said that after the House votes on the Finance Committee, the budget was in the Interim Finance Committee's hands and that the budget will be delivered to the Standing Committee on Sunday

1-28-11 Recap of the day's events/posts

Facts:

1.     CBI auction results

2.     Iraqi Dinar – Remarkable Rise Against Dollar

3.     Chuan Taha Barzani is Expected to Resolve the Crisis Intervention of the National Council

4.     Khalid Al Mulla calls for parliament for an emergency session

5.     Parliament will hold a special meeting to discuss the consequences of the decision to link the independent government bodies

6.     Parliament will tighten control over the bodies associated with the Council of Ministers

7.     Washington Post: Applying the provisions of the Federal first test of the partnership between Maliki and his rivals

8.     House of Representatives will vote on the budget without seeing the final accounts for previous years

9.     Arab League of Nations Summit (LETTER)

10.  Allawi declares its commitment to three candidates, and demands your intelligence

11.  Representative of the Secretary General of the UN in Iraq

12.  Maliki stressed the importance of continued political meetings and wise underlines its support for the Government

13.  Statement from IHEC

14.  Deputy rule out the possibility of candidates for the vacant ministries in the meeting of Parliament next Sunday   

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Frank26 posting from yesterday

2.     Night chat

3.     8ball chat

4.     Bank rumor    

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     Buckeye rumor

2.     RV unlikely in 2011 

Where Are We At?

1.     The CBI auctions were low again today.  This is now the 4^th day in a row.  The last time the auctions had anything close to 4 days in a row was back in June of 2010, when the auctions were low for 7 days in a row

2.     The Central Bank advisor today said that dinar will rise against the dollar in the coming period!  Need I say more?!

3.     Government formation continues as it has in the last few days.  We have news that suggest forward movement with promises of resolving the ministry positions, and we have news of Parliament blocs wanting to review the Federal Court’s ruling on the independent bodies.  The date for resolving the ministries is still up in the air.  There are article stating that Maliki and Allawi will resolve the ministry positions this weekend and there are articles that state that they will be resolved in the next week.  The UN and IHEC are expressing their concern of the ruling.

4.      In terms of rumors, the bank rumors in the US are still dominating this week’s news.  The information the banks are giving out about selling and exchanging Dinar appears to be consistent.  Banks will not sell Dinar, but they will buy Dinar.  Also, most are consistent about something happening with the IQD this coming week.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).

2.    Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.     With regards to the government formation, we need to watch for news this weekend regarding whether or not Allawi and Maliki actually meet to discuss all outstanding issues including the ministry positions.  There was one article saying that they would resolve all the ministry positions in their closed door meeting this weekend.  The only problem with this is that Maliki leaves for a regional tour on Sunday, and there was also news of Allawi not being in town.  So, I’m not sure if they

2.     I normally do not like bank news much.  I’ve heard all the bank rumors than I care to have heard, and I know I’m not alone on this.  However, the recent bank news is a little different this time around.  I’ve never heard of so many banks in the US saying the same things about the Dinar.  If they are correct, then perhaps we’ll see a rate change this coming week.