2-2-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.       CBI auction results

2.       Iraqi: "al-Maliki to Reject All Candidates and Threatened to Choose His Own Minister

3.       Maliki: draft bill of the National Council for the strategic policy is contrary to the agreement Erbil

4.       Cabinet approves the recommendations of the Commission to ensure the protection of Iraqi funds

5.       Maliki: We will not waive the requirement for independent security ministries

6.       Sadrist movement calls for the disbanding the Iraqi parliament and hold new elections

7.       Barham Salih, confirms that the Kurdistan Region is preparing to re-export of oil very soon

8.       News for resolving the position of intelligence chief of the Kurdistan Alliance

9.       Iraqi Parliament asks Federal Court to reinterpret its resolution linking government independent bodies

10.   National Alliance: Ahmed Chalabi and the Interior Minister in the Maliki Government

11.   President of the Parliament, that all attempts to form a new federal court

12.   Iraq needs to quick fixes to guard against any popular revolt

13.   The Budget Law of the Council of Ministers to Amend

14.   Virginia Considers Dollar Collapse, Gold Currency

15.   Foreign (News): Senior GCC Official to Visit Iraq Thursday

16.   Barzani attendance to Baghdad meetings is not necessary: MP

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.       MTT rumor – South Korea land deal with Iraq

2.       PD rumor update on budget

3.       Skype chat rumor

4.       Okie Oil Man

5.       Okie Oil Man chat 2

6.       Topguner rumor

7.       MTT rumor

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.       PD rumor

2.       MTT rumor – Canadian RV this morning?

3.       Rumor regarding RV last night

Where Are We At?

1.       Looks like we’re on a CBI roller coaster ride.  Today’s auction was really high.

2.       In government formation news, it was reported that Maliki and Allawi’s disagreements are threatning to impede the completion of the government.  Also, it was said that Maliki sent  Allawi a letter letting him know that he was rejecting all the candidates for the ministries, including the security ministries.  Maliki is also still fighting the National Council formation saying that the draft violates the agreements made in Erbil.  He also said (again) that he is not in a hurry to fill the security ministries because he is no longer stuck (meaning there are no deadlines?).  However, in another article, Maliki said he will go to Parliament with the names of the candidates for the security ministries and will do that early in the month.  There was additional news about Parliament wanting to dismiss the Federal Court, but I think the news that came in late today is very interesting.  This news is about Barzani not needing to attend meetings in Baghdad because it isn’t necessary!  The article stated that the political blocs are in agreement regarding outstanding issues, and that the issues are minor and do not require mediation by Barzani.

3.       On the budget front, the news stated that the House will bring a draft budget law to the Council of Ministers on Thursday to modify (amendments) it.  It is then expected that the budget will be read and voted on by Paliament.

4.       On the rumor front, the rumors of an RV started early this morning.  It was rumored that Canada would be RVing followed by the US shortly after.  This did not happen.  However, there were additional rumors that the RV is tomorrow, and this is coming from many different sources.  Finally, on an MTT call, someone interrupted and said breaking news is that Nujaifi said that if the government isn’t formed, he will call for re-elections.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the third time (assuming it is not already done).

2.    Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.       If the article regarding Barzani not being needed any longer is true, this is good news.  It basically means that we are very close, if not already there, to seeing the government formed and formally announced.  Further, if the rumor of Nujaifi is true, this will put tremendous pressure on Maliki to finish the government ASAP.  He clearly wants to be a part of the government, but a move for new elections would force him out.  He will have no choice.  The other pressure point is Parliament’s strong desire to dissmiss the Federal Court.   This would likely result in a vote of no confidence in Maliki.  So, he loses either way.  It means he must finish if he doesn’t want to face either situation.  He must take what he can get and move on.

If neither of the rumors is true, then we’ll need to wait to see what happens with Barzani’s initiative.  This information to me is the most important information because Barzani was tasked to go to Baghdad to complete the government.  He’s been working on that for the past few weeks.  So, if he is not needed, this tells me they are closer to forming the government than would appear.  All of the other information about the disagreements over who should fill seats, and the information about Allawi’s new position cannot be too meaningful.  If it were, Barzani would have stayed to mediate discussion and bring those issues to closure.

2.       With regad to the budget, if it isn’t already approved as rumored, we’ll see Parliament complete the 3^rd reading followed by ratification.  Bear in mind, however, they need to have a full government to ratify the budget. 

2-2-11 MTT rumor

Highlights/Thoughts

This just came in on the MTT call....Nujaifi said that if the government is not formed by tomorrow, he will call for re-elections.

2-2-11 Barzani attendance to Baghdad meetings is not necessary: MP

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A leader in the Kurdstan blocs stated that it isn't necessary for Barzani to go to Baghad to attend meetings because it isn't necessary
2. The political blocs are in agreement regarding the outstanding issues
3. The political blocs must now implement the agreements that took place in Erbil and abide by it without the presence of Barzani
4. The current problems can now be solved without any mediation because they are minor and can be discussed in Parliament
5. Although the parties agreed that the interior ministry will be held by the National Coalition, and the defense ministry by the List, both parties are rejecting the other partie's candidates
7. There was a prior agreement to hand over the security positions to indpendents

2-2-11 Topguner rumor

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Top had a conversation with his group
2. Tonight is our night
3. Government has been done for months
4. Was told back in August that they could have formed well before that

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[Topguner] just got off the phone wih my group.....
[Topguner] everyone is hearing the same thing.....
[Topguner] tonight is our night
[Topguner] lots of different sources...
[Topguner] well let me put it this way.... there are going to be a LOT of people wrong tomorrow if this doesnt go...
[Topguner] just hearing it is going to happen tonight... so it seems is everyone else
[Topguner] Gov has been done for months....
[Topguner] this has all been delay tatitcs
[Topguner] i was told back in August that they could have formed the gov months before that
[Topguner] i have been told point blank...quit asking me about the government...its done and has been for sometime

2-2-11 Okie Oil Man chat 2

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Intel directly from Parliament
2. Projection for RV is tomorrow
3. If Parliament doesn't agree on issues now at hand, this will be prolonged until March 21

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[OKIE_OIL_MAN] this is intel directly from parliment--not rumor--fact--projection for r/v is tommorrow and if parliment does not agree on issues now at hand this will be prolonged till march 21------this is fact--period---

2-2-11 Okie Oil Man

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Okie cannot elaborate but said things are moving now
2. More intel expected later

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[OKIE_OIL_MAN] can not elaborate but things are moving---now!!!--infer what you wish--will not answer questions--get ready folks--sounds like were there
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] as per source just now coming in
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] I am only a messenger and report what source furnishes--
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] much more Intel expected later
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] pilots--let your gear down

2-2-11 Foreign (News): Senior GCC Official to Visit Iraq Thursday

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The Iraq Foreign Ministry announced that a senior GCC official will visit Iraq
2. The source noted that they will discuss a number of issues that concern both countries
3. They will focus on economic issues, increased trade, and diplomatic relations
4. The Minister will also discuss the Arab summit

2-2-11 Rumor regarding RV last night

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Person's brother, who is retired from the military, said his banker friend told him the RV went through last night
2. The brother's banker friend invested $100k
3. Banker says the rate is $5+ and $6+ at the CBI

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[******} new INTEL....I have never posted any intel on this site because of lack of trust of info , or person giving intel...that being said , i dont have link , or , something in writing! Now , i was just told , by my brother , who is retired from the military (20-25yrs) , that, per his banker , who is also good friend of his , that the r v went thru last night ....furtermore ,after learning of the news , the banker invested 100,000 usd into the dinar!!!!!! He goes on to say , that the rate is 5+ @ bank and , 6+ @ c b i side......NOW , dont go nuts....treat as rumor , but as for me , i am very excited!!!!!! ....remember , treat as rumor!!!!!

2-2-11 Virginia Considers Dollar Collapse, Gold Currency

Highlights/Thoughts

I am posting this because there are parallels to the information about global settlements. I will not summarize this article, but wanted to put out there for your reference if you are interested.

2-2-11 Skype chat rumor

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Person was told we should see the RV today or tonight
2. The bank code people are seeing, which shows 527, is not the rate
3. Was told rate of $3.86
4. Took 2 weeks to show Kuwait's RV
5. If the 2 week period holds true for Iraq, that would be tomorrow

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[12:11:56 PM] [****] I am being told that we will see it today or tonight and a rate of 3.86, I am told the 527 is the code, I can not see a 5.27 rate as that would be way over everyone in the ME and they do not have infrastructure in place. 10:29 AM [*****] *****] 527 code means rate to come, also when kuwait showed back on the forex it took two weeks to show the rv, so if that holds true for Iraq that would be tomorrow

2-2-11 The Budget Law of the Council of Ministers to Amend

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. 2 deputies from the Kurdish coalition blocs said the House will bring a draft budget law to the Council of Ministers on Thursday in order to modify it
2. On Thursday, it is expected that the budget would then be read and voted on by Parliament

2-2-11 Iraq needs to quick fixes to guard against any popular revolt

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A member of the House for the List said that Iraq needs to address all tracks in anticipation of any popular revolution such as those in Tunisia and Egypt
2. She said Iraq needs strong and popular political figures to expedite the resolution of many issues, including approving the budget

2-2-11 PD rumor update on budget

Highlights/Thoughts

1. His prediction was for today
2. He is still standing by his prediction for today
3. Says that there is news that the budget is approved
4. If the budget is approved, this means the GOI is set because they have to ratify it before it can be approved
5. Need to wait for the announcement on a day to day basis
6. He received 4 updates this morning. 2 said the budget was approved. 2 said it wasn't
7. Received an update that said both Shabibi and Maliki agreed on the RV and budget

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9:10 AM PST Feb 2 [*****] MY prediction as all know was for today. I am still standing by that and I do see the new news that the budget is aprooved and that was the plan and that means the GOI IS SET because the goi has to be ratified before the budget can be approved. Now if all this is true it is going to still be like the GROUND HOG PREDICTION. We will now be waiting for the announcement day to day , hour by hour till it is made public and then the activation that can be immediate or even a few days in the making. KEEP YOUR FOCUS on all intel and try to find the facts within. JUST LIKE ME THIS MORNING got 4 updates two said the budget approved two said it wasnt ??? both from good researchers . THEN I got updates that Shabibi and Maliki had agreed on the RV AND BUDGET so who do we believe. TIME AND ONLY TIME will tell. I am very confident all movement is positive and we are sitting in the right position this morning for things to change very fast. *******

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Separate but related info:
[10:52:31 AM]
[*********] just got call from Middle east high source budget passed...RV tomorrow

Here is a more in-depth chat related to the one above:

MTT call ... asking about *****from source: " Budget is passed... RV is imminent" and then about the validity of his source... says the source "gets an A - but it is iraq and things change... was a hush hush call, very quick... no numbers... and then the source is gone..." is the source getting good info... *****says... "yes, because of the postion of his source in the gov" ... *****..."within the next 48 hours, Fri gets nothing done then... maybe today 3 pm EST, around then or 2-4 am tomorrow... but i dont know, hoping it happens cant be far off" question for Buckeye by a caller - know your intel strong - question - 154 country updates... on UN side... look for NY Stock exchange to not be open then happen? *****- "yes" Contact in gov in Iraq, - budget is passed - not the gov being seated.... *****STILL TALKING..

2-2-11 President of the Parliament, that all attempts to form a new federal court

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Najafi told a press conference that Parliament will draft a law of the Federal Court and Supreme Judicial Council for reading and discussion before voting on it
2. He said there will be a new Federal Court in the coming period
3. The formation of the new court will be under Article 92, 93, and 94 of the Constitution
4. He said that the Court Act requires 2/3rds of the House and said that this is not easy and will require political consensus

Related article where Nujaifi speaks in a stronger tone regarding the attempt to reverse the decision
Related article showing conflicting ruling by the Federal Court

2-2-11 National Alliance: Ahmed Chalabi and the Interior Minister in the Maliki Government

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A source in the National Alliance said they have given their candidate to take over for the Interior ministry position
2. He said Mr. Chalabi gained the support of all blocs in the National Alliance
3. The source said that Chalabi would be the frontrunner for the job
4. He said there remains strong conflict between the political blocs for the defense and national security ministries

2-2-11 Iraqi Parliament asks Federal Court to reinterpret its resolution linking government independent bodies

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. All the political blocs, except the State of Law, requested the Federal Court to reinterpret their recent decision on the independent bodies
2. They also called upon the Finance Minister Rafie al-Issawi to discuss the draft budget
3. The House met to discuss the Court's decision yesterday, but were unable to change the situation
4. Parliament formed a committee headed by the Speaker of Parliament and included members of the Legal Comittee, who have contributed in the writing of the constitution to follow up on this matter
5. The List called for the dismissal of Federal Court for lack of impartiality and favoritism towards parties and personalities
6. The Supreme Council described the linking of the independent bodies under the PM as a step toward dictatorship

2-2-11 News for resolving the position of intelligence chief of the Kurdistan Alliance

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A political source said that the post of the Intelligence Chief will go to the Kurds, and this has been resolved once and for all

I am not sure if we can call this a done deal since this is just a political source. We'll have to keep an eye on this to see if other news confirms this.

2-2-11 Barham Salih, confirms that the Kurdistan Region is preparing to re-export of oil very soon

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The PM of the Kurdistan Regional Government said that they are beginning preparations for re-exporting of oil soon
2. He expressed optimism about the application of what has been agreed (referring to talks with Maliki a few weeks ago)

2-2-11 Sadrist movement calls for the disbanding the Iraqi parliament and hold new elections

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of the article

1. An MP for Sadr's bloc is calling to dissolve Parliament and to hold new elections
2. He said the political process in the country has come to a dead end
3. He cited the ongoing controversy over the formation of the Political Council for National Security

2-2-11 Maliki: We will not waive the requirement for independent security ministries

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliki will go to the Parliament early this month to provide the names of candidates for the security ministries
2. Maliki said on TV that the security ministries must be independent. He said he will not waive this requirement

2-2-11 Cabinet approves the recommendations of the Commission to ensure the protection of Iraqi funds

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The Council of Ministers approved all the recommendations of the committee formed to develop a mechanism to ensure the protection of Iraq's money

If this provides adequate protection for Iraq's money, then the DFI will no longer be needed. If it's not needed, then the 6/1 date may not be a good trigger date for an RV.

2-2-11 MTT rumor - South Korea land deal with Iraq

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Investigative journalist told person on call there is a government in Iraq
2. He said South Korea and Iraq are engaged in a land deal to build an embassy
3. SK offered land to Iraq, but Iraq wants more property
4. Deal says that if there is an improvement in the rate, SK will rebate the money back to Iraq
5. This transaction is coming up quickly, but no specific time specified
6. Person receiving information from journalist is trying to get transcript/contract

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Investigative journalist in Canada. When he provides info, it is thoroughly researched. He said there is a governemnt in Iraq. They negotiated land in South Korea to build and embassy. South Korea offered them a piece of land. He saidsaid Iraq didn’t want the piece of land. They wanted a bigger piece of land that cost more money. He said the contract says that If there was an exchange rate improvement in the situation, SK would rebate the money back to Iraq. This transaction is coming up pretty quickly. No timeframe specified, but the person will be getting a copy of the transcript.

2-2-11 Maliki: draft bill of the National Council for the strategic policy is contrary to the agreement Erbil

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliki said that the semi-official draft bill of the National Council for the strategic policy submitted by the List violates the agreements made in Erbil
2. He said the draft law has nothing to do with what has been agreed upon
3. He added that if it says "draft", the National Alliance will not approve or pass it in Parliament, where a Shiite alliance is the largest bloc
4. Regarding the Interior, National Security, and Intelligence ministries, Maliki said he is not in a hurry and does not have to accept the candidates if he is not convinced they are a fit
5. Maliki said he is no longer stuck as he was before the formation of the government

2-2-11 MTT rumor - Canadian RV this morning?

Highlights/Thoughts

MTT is saying on their call right now that Canada is supposed to RV now. The USA will be next in a few hours. There was a CNBC alert this morning. See below.

CNBC alert. CME (Canadian Mercantile Exchange) delays opening until 11:00 am

Someone on the call said that he didn't believe the RV would start in Canada. Should happen globally all at once.

2-2-11 PD rumor

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Expecting an announcement today regarding the minister of security
2. They could make the interim security minister permanent
3. Shabibi doesn't like the interim security minister
4. Appears that it is Shabibi's decision to make regarding the security minister
5. If they don't follow through like they promised, the RV will be a day to day decision as to when it will happen

I've never heard that Shabibi would make the decision on the security ministry. This doesn't mean it isn't true.

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[******] I AM EXPECTING AN ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY waiting for Shabibi to deside to trust the minister of security. IT is know he doesnt like the guy that is the interum security minister but it is his decision to make at this point. The KURDS are also aginst him but it doesnt remove the fact it can be done just as all these other decisions have been being made with interum people in place in the past two months. THEY ALSO COULD VOTE HIM PERMANENT TODAY AND COULD HAVE YESTERDAY WE DONT KNOW FOR SURE either way. ******* If they dont deside to follow through like they have promised again today then IT WILL BE DAY TO DAY decisions when the RV will happen. Plus people of IRAQ will start escalating unrest?? they are getting in dangerous ground. ******

2-2-11 Iraqi: "al-Maliki to Reject All Candidates and Threatened to Choose His Own Minister

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The disputes between Maliki and Allawi are threatening to impede the completion of the government
2. The List has the intention to evade the agreements that led to the formation of the government
3. Maliki sent a letter to Allawi ensuring the rejection of all candidates for the secruity ministries and other vacant ministries
4. Maliki asked him to provide alternative candidates
5. The 2 sides have been exchanging accusations in the last 2 weeks
6. The List began feeling the presence of an attempt on Maliki's part to repudiate Barzani's agreements and warned this could create a political crisis

2-2-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1827)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 2-FEB-2011. The results were as follows:

Details	Notes
Number of banks	18
Auction price selling dinar / US$	1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$	-----
Amount sold at auction price (US$)	190,514,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)	-----
Total offers for buying (US$)	190,514.000
Total offers for selling (US$)	-----

Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets