Friday, March 4, 2011

3-4-11 My Last posting :(

Hello everyone,

This will be my last posting on this site. There are a few reasons for this. First, my schedule has been pretty hectic and I haven't been able to get to all of the articles that I feel you should know about. That has bothered me a lot. It make me feel guilty! Second, this obviously takes a lot of time, and it means time away from the family. Last, I believed for quite some time now that everything was finished. I was told this a while back before I started this blog. Since that time, I've written about quite a few news articles.

Much of what I've seen either made no sense or seemed like old news rehashed. When I say the articles didn't make sense, I don't mean that I didn't understand them. Rather, something just didn't seem right. Simply put. The news seemed made up. Today's news about Maliki meeting with the 3 security ministers was somewhat of the tipping point for me.

I think that news is GREAT on the one hand because we're really close to them actually admitting the GOI is done. On the other hand, being told that everything is done by a reliable source and reading and writing about these made up articles doesn't seem right because I don't believe the articles.

I've enjoyed helping those who benefited from the time I've spent on this site, and I've really enjoyed exchanging messages with some of you have emailed me. This has been a great experience in the short time it lasted. However, the better half of me just can't write another entry on articles that really aren't leading us to the truth. This is not to say that 100% of the articles are incorrect or false. But, it's my belief that enough are false such that we can't piece things together accurately enough to bring this home.

If you don't believe that, look at the best analysts there are out there. There are many. Each one of them has been wrong at one time or another. Every "RV must happen marker" has been wrong. It's not that they are bad analysts. In my opinion, it's just that we're given a very small amount of hidden and obscure truths and a lot of untruths. The net effect is that it makes it impossible for anyone to use articles to piece the puzzle together and get it right. Of course, the "Iraq factor" makes a liar out of the best of the analysts/gurus!

Given that, I'm left with just waiting for the moment! This journey has a positive end. I just don't know when it will end. But, when it does happen, I'll be happy that you all were patient and smart enough to wait this out so that you get to benefit from your investment. Of course, I'll be happy with my investment too! Be smart with your money and enjoy it for the rest of your lives! Lastly, don't forget that it is better to give than it is to receive!

Take care,


3-4-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1.     None

Where Are We At?
1.     Another scattered news day!  The only theme we have is related to the protests.  So I’ll start there.  Hundreds of citizens in Baghdad were protesting poor services and demanding the elimination of corruption.  Toops sealed off the scurity of all ports of entry and exit to the areas surrounding the green zone, and Baghdad Operations Command imposed a curfew on cars, motorcycles, and bicycles from midnight until further notice.  It was reported they were expecting massive demonstration and that curfews were put in place in other provinces.  No acts of violence or riots were reported at the end of the demonstrations.  However, 45 Arab companies decided not to participate in the Erbil Internation Expo due to the unrest in the Kurdistan region
2.     Iraq’s oil minister said that Iraq aimed to explort more than 2.2 million bpd in March and that they are building new facilities for exporting oil that will allow them to export an additional 1.8 million bpd
3.     Nujaifi discussed with Kuwait’s Amabassador the relations between the two countries and the works of the Joint Committee formed to settle the outstanding issues.  They also discussed Nujaifi’s upcomming visit to Kuwait
4.     Concering Article 140, it was reported the plan for the disbursement of compensation to the entrants and deportees is in the 2011 budget.  A commission on the implementation of 140 was informed of the progress and performance.  They decided to pay compensation to farmers who had their contracts canceled, and they formed a committee for the purpose of preparing controls about how to include divorced and widowed women
5.     In government formation news, the List said they are looking for a replacement for Allawi for the presidency of the National Council.  He said the List is keen on the formation of this Council to undertake correcting past mistakes, whether at the level of the government or parliament.  It was reported today that Allawi led an elaborate scheme designed to remove Maliki from power.  The plan was reported as being supported by the US, Britain, Saudis, and in coordination with many media leaders and members of the army and other security agencies.  The plan detailed how they would coordinate the demonstrations across the cities and what the demonstrators would do.  The plan expected that Maliki and others would be killed during the demonstrations held on the 25th.  It was reported that Maliki became aware of the plot and contacted Sadr, who then told his followers not to participate in the demonstrations.  The plan’s first attempt was thwarted, but there are many plans for settling accounts with Maliki.  The plans include a military coup
6.     Today, it was reported that Maliki met with the three ministers of security
7.     A deputy from the National Alliance said the Council of Representatives decided not to discuss the law of the National Council and 3 oil laws due to the conditions on the street.  Instead, they discussed the reasons for its upcomming events
8.     Concerning rumors, Night feels we will either hear bout the 3 security ministries being filled this weekend, or Maliki will be removed by force, if necessary.  He said that Maliki is on his own now and does not have US support given that he did not follow through on the Barzani agreements.  In other rumor news, someone reported on the status of the votes for the security ministers.  2 of the 3 were approved
What’s left?
1.    Vote on the budget – Done!
2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3.    Formal announcement of government
4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6.    RV/RI
7.    HCL

Important Dates
1.     February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2.     February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3.     February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 
4.     February 25  -- Large demonstration
5.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government; did not happen, unless it already happened and wasn’t made public
6.     March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011
7.     March 5 – Maliki may hand over the 3 security ministry candidates and Parliament may vote on them
8.     May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
9.     May 15 – Arab Summit
10.  May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
11.  June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?
1.     In government formation news, it appears that the List will move forward with filling the presidency of the National Council.  While the news of Allawi’s plan to remove Maliki from power was surprising and interesting, it’s a single data point as far as I’m concerned for now.  I’m not suggesting that it can’t be real, but I’m choosing to wait for more evidence that it is true.   That said, there was news today from two members of the List.  One said that it is too early for a vote of no confidence for Maliki.  The other said just the opposite.  This combined with the pressure from Allawi’s recent moves to activate agreements with Sadr and Hakim definitely puts pressure on him to perform.  Maliki will also continue to be pressed by the weekly demonstrations
2.     In other news, we continue to see Iraq working on Article 140 and the outstanding issues concerning Kuwait.  These are important issues that need to be resolved.  That said, this is not to mean that they must be resolved prior to the RV
3.     Concerning the news of Maliki meeting with the 3 security ministers, how is that possible?  On 2/13, it was reported that Parliament voted on 8 ministers.  However, it was reported that the 3 security ministers were not voted on and that Maliki has been the acting minister for the 3 security ministries.  Nothing has changed since that was reported on the news, which means that Maliki should still be the acting minister for the 3 security ministries.  But, he met with the 3 security ministries today.  How?  I can only think of one way.  They were selected already.  Now, is it possible that Parliament is just now getting around to voting on them?  Maybe, but one thing is certain, if he did meet with them today, they have to be in the positions.  This also means we’re real close to being done with the government formation!  But, this also means they have not been giving us the truth in the news….for a while.  That’s actually not surprising.  After all, we were told they finished the GOI at 12:30 on 2/2.  Don’t remember?  Read here  The same person who said this also said recently that Maliki will stay on as the PM for the full term, the US is backing him, and that we should see the RV in the middle of this month. Crossing my fingers!

3-4-11 Muqtada al-Sadr frustrates Allawi plot to topple al-Maliki?

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Well informed sources, documents, and unequivocal evidence of the existence of an elaborate scheme lead by Allawi, supported by the US and Britain, Saudi, and in coordination with many media leaders and member of the army and other security agencies have been developing a plan in London during the various meetings attended by many of the parties
2. The plan was designed to complete the anger of the masses and rally the people so that they would be angry and resentful of the lack of services during the demonstrations on the 25th of February
3. The article describes how the demonstrations would be coordinated in such a way that some of them would provoke clashes with security forces
4. It was agreed with the groups that the center of the demonstrators would withdraw from Tahrir to the top of the bridge of the Republic and then penetrate the bridge
5. Another would then control the masses in a peaceful way to buy time until the afternoon of that day
6. The first evening of large groups of conspirators would kindle fire in all public places and markets to create terror and penetrate the green zone
7. The were to burn the Council of Ministers and the occupation of embassies, destroy and burn the Baghdad Provincial Council and seize the radio stations
8. They were then to announce the fall of the Maliki government and the formation of an emergency government and attribute the invitation of Allawi to form the Government of National Salvation to the US
9. They expected that Maliki and several officials would be killed by military and security leaders loyal to Allawi
10. Maliki was aware of this plot
11. The article talks about Allawi's previous failed attempts at executing the plan
12. Maliki's efforts to pay the security authorities to contain the protests by dispersing them thwarted some of the schemes
13. But what foiled the plot in full is the success of Maliki's agreement with Sadr to take a position
14. Maliki sent a private jet to Iran and offered him schemes, evidence, documents, and copies of the maps that were distributed to groups
15. When Sadr returned, he told his followers not to adopt the demonstration and postpone it after 6 months and only by popular referendum in the fight against corruption and public service
16. The article states the first episode was thwarted but it may not end because there are so many plans for settling accounts with Maliki
17. They talk about seizing power from Maliki through military coup

Maliki's broadened powers seen as a threat

3-4-11 Maliki heads a security meeting

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliki headed an urgent meeting with the 3 security ministries: interior; defense; national security
2. They discussed the implications of today's events in terms of security
3. It wasn't revealed what mechanism may be employed to overcome the mistakes of the security forces in dealing with the demonstrations last Friday, and it was said those mistakes would not be repeated
4. Baghdad Operations Command announced a ban on vehicles roaming

This article says Maliki is the acting minister for the 3 security positions

What 3 security ministers?!  Did he meet with himself?  Did he set up 3 mirrors?  Or, were those ministries done back in February as someone suggested?

3-4-11 i parliament will discuss the causes of events in its upcoming session

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on TCN

1. A deputy of the National Alliance said that the Council of Representatives will discuss the reason for its upcoming events
2. He said they were supposed to discuss the law of the National Council and 3 oil laws, but the conditions on the street and demonstrations made the Council suspend those discussions
3. The remainder of the article provides an historical perspective on the government and their responses to the demonstrations

3-4-11 45 Arab companies withdrew from Erbil expo fearing turmoil

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on

1. The general director for Erbil international expos said that due to the unrest in the Kurdistan region, Iraq, and the Arab world 45 Arab companies withdrew from the fourth International Exhibition for the Construction Industry in Erbil
2. The expo is currently underway in the Kurdistan Region
3. 50 companies registered
4. 5 decided to stay while the other 45 opted out

3-4-11 The end of the Friday demonstrations in Baghdad

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The demonstrations in Baghdad ended after the protesters delivered their demands
2. They demonstrators called on the government to disclose the money spent on the ration card
3. They demanded better services and provision of ration card items, elimination rampant corruption in the joints of the state, and sacking of the governor of Baghdad and the President of the provincial council