2-17-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.       CBI auction results

2.       Vote on the budget

3.       Maliki confirmed his commitment to political agreements

4.       Jaafar al-Sadr submit his resignation from the membership of the House of Representatives

5.       Melkert: I think after exchange of visits by prime ministers all issues especially those of the border will be solved

6.       House Held its 34th Led by Alngivi and Attend 235 Seats

7.       Maliki will hold a press conference later today addressing economic reform, protests, and Kuwait

8.       Parliamentary committee calls on Kuwait to cancel debt as it weighs on budget

9.       Deputy for Iraq: The Delay in the Final Accounts Will Not Prevent the Vote to Pass Budget

10.   Kurds are demanding reduction of fuel prices and the establishment of power stations, warning the spread of the demonstrations

11.   House of Representatives Completed Discussion of the Federal Budget for 2011

12.   Maliki: I will present candidates for the security ministries, the parliament in the absence of consensus

13.   Huani: Federal Court Act is still under study within the House of Representatives

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.       Skype chat - UN meeting results rumor

2.       Frank26 rumor

3.       Frank26 & Delta Info: KTF Missions 2/16/11

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.       Skype chat – PD Rumor

2.       Skype chat – Cagetrucker rumor

Where Are We At?

1.       In government formation news, Maliki that both he an Allawi are committed to the Barzani agreements.  More importantly, Maliki announced that he will present the names of the 3 security ministry candidate, and he says he has more candidates if there isn’t agreement.  In other news, Jaafar al-Sadr submitted his resignation today in protest against the deterioration of services and the inability of the GOI to provide anything for the people

2.       In regards to Kuwaiti news, Melkert said that he believes that all issues between Baghdad and Kuwait would be solved.  

3.       In budget news, there were several articles today suggesting that they were done with the discussions on the budget, but the date for the vote was not consistent.  Some articles say the vote will be on Sunday.  Others say the vote will be Monday or next week.  Also, Parliament called on Kuwait to cancel the outstanding debt owed by Iraq to Kuwait.  Additionally, they want the 5% of oil revenues they pay to Kuwait canceled.  Finally, a deputy for the List said that the final accounts for the past year will not hold up the vote on the budget, and the CBI said that it would be in an awkward position if the budget isn’t passed.

4.       In other news, Maliki held a press conference today to address the economic reforms, protests, and his meeting with Kuwait.  Also, the Kurds demanded a reduction in fuel prices and the establishment of power stations, and they warned that demonstrations would spread.  Finally, it was reported today that the draft law of the Federal Court is still under study with the Council of Representatives.

5.       In rumor news, it was reported that the RV was done and that we should see it within 24 hours, but we won’t be able to cash in until Monday or Tuesday.  Cagetrucker also reported the RV is done and said the UN was in an emergency meeting.  He also said Kuwait agreed and the UN will lift all sanctions now.  Frank reported that Maliki stated that the citizens will not have to pay for their electric bills from today forward.  He also said they would not need to pay for speeding tickets until further notice.  In his much longer report, Frank suggested that Kuwait’s meeting with Maliki a month ago resulted in Maliki telling him the value of the dinar would increase.  This, Frank suggests, is what made the PM of Kuwait give 20% of his 2011 budget to the people, and tell them he would pick up their food tab until next year.  Delta reporting on the US Treasury meeitngs and said he felt this is significant.  He also reported on what TV in Iraq is saying now regarding the GOI’s rejection of the 4^th VP, the demonstrations, and the budget.  He said TV said there is a good possibility that when Maliki returns, he would give over the 3 names for the security ministries.

What’s left?

1.    Vote on the budget

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.      February (on/after Tuesday, but sometime this week) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 

2.      February 20 – Vote on the budget

3.      February 17 – GCC Meeting

4.      February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

5.      February 25  -- Large demonstration online

6.      March 29-30 – Arab Summit

7.      May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies

8.      May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

9.      June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.       Beginning with the big news for me, which is related to Maliki’s meeting with Kuwait, Melkert’s statement that he thinks all issues between Kuwait and Baghdad would be solved is a big deal.  The UN lifted all sanctions from Chapter 7 except those relating to Kuwait.  What they essentially said is that in order for the remaining sanctions to be lifted, Kuwait and Baghdad would have to agree on the outstanding issues.  The fact that there was so much positive news from both sides, a committee will be established to work on the issues beginning in March, and taking into consideration Melkert’s statement tells me they have agreement.  I could be wrong, but I don’t think so on this one.  What this means is that the remaining sanctions can now be lifted, if I am right.  If we need to wait for the resolution of all the outstanding issues, then we will not see the RV until sometime after the middle of March.  That said, I do not think this will end up being the case given that violence is escalating quickly in Iraq.  They haven’t even finished their budget and they are giving away things almost every day.  If they drag out the RV, there will be nothing left for them to give away.

2.       What else could hold up the RV?  The government formation, of course.  However, things sped up after Maliki’s meeting with Kuwait.  He’s now ready to hand over more than 3 names for the security positions, if necessary.  So, this will not be the hold up.  I also do not believe Parliament will feel inclined to drag out the nominations given that the blocs eligible to receive those positions have all provided their candidates, and because of the escalating violence.  So I am expecting the three names any day now.

3.       On the budget, it feels to me they’ve been done with this long ago, but it feels like they’ve had to drag this out until it was close to the time for them to RV.  If that’s true, then we’ll see the RV shortly after they vote the budget in, and of course, after they have a full GOI.  The vote is this Sunday, or sometime next week.  Either way, there really isn’t much left for them to do on this budget.

4.       On the rumor front, Frank’s sugestion about Kuwait’s reaction to their meeting with Maliki is interesting.  Taking 20% out of your budget in an unplanned way would have a devastating impact on a country, if it couldn’t fill that gap.  So maybe Frank is right?  It makes sense to me from the perspective of Maliki’s short visit to Kuwait along with all the positive news that came out of that quick meeting.  Was that a meeting to just seal the deal?  Sure didn’t seem like they had any seriousl discussions, but Maliki came back ready to go, and he’s beginning to give away the Iraqi farm.  Interesting.  Regarding the other rumors, it remains to be seen whether those have legs or not. 

2-17-11 Frank26 & Delta Info: KTF Missions 2/16/11

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. Last month the PM from Kuwait came to visit Maliki
2. Shouldn't it have been the other way around given what Iraq did to Kuwait?
3. Our investment started with Kuwait and it will end in Kuwait
4. Moments after the Amir met with Maliki, he rushed back home to pull out 20+% of his country's 2011 budget and spread the wealth financially to Kuwait, and he also told them he would pick up their food tab until next year
5. How could have have made such a decision so impulsively when it wasn't in the budget?
6. Such a move would damage their MOF and MOP's budget, unless last month after their meeting te Amir told Maliki I am going home to please my people because you are going to raise the value of your currency of which I have been given much of
7. If this was the case, then there be issues in their budget
8. Frank thinks Maliki did not go to Kuwait to finish the RI
9. He says they found the rate in contracts and believe the rate will be lower than Kuwait's rate when the RI is announced
10. A committee will be formed to do whatever Maliki and the Emir discussed in privte
11. There are many interesting dates to study, and Frank will share

Delta
1. TV said that the UST and their deputies were busy meeting people
2. They met with the financial advisor committee that worked with Maliki and Shabibi on the reform of their currency's monetary policy
3. They reformed their monetary policy and created a map that they called Al Kharetah
4. Delta thinks it is significant that the UST is there going from meeting to meeting
5. TV said the GOI met yesterday and rejected the president's proposal for the 4th VP
6. TV mentioned the demonstrations in Wasit
7. They said so far demonstrations have been peaceful, but made it clear that there is great frustration
8. Delta says it is getting ugly no
9. The ME uprising is bleeding into Iraq now
10. Maliki made it clear to the representatives of each city that he wanted them to talk to the citizens
11. The demonstrations started peacefully and they calle out for the politicians to come out of the buildings to talk to them in the streets
12. As the hours went by, nobody came out and the yelling got louder
13. They finally resorted to burning a government building down
14. They did this because the mayor just bought a 70 mil dinar car
15. They yelled,"you do this while we are starving to death!!!"
16. TV said the budget has a good possibility of completing today
17. They also said that when Maliki returns from Kuwait, he is expected to turn in the remaining 3 ministries
18. They said as soon as the budget is done three hundred thousand jobs will be ready on 3/1 for Iraqi citizens
19. Frank calls attention to 2/24 and what the Emir is doing on that day

2-17-11 Frank26 rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WISH TO READ RUMORS

1. Maliki just announced to the Iraqi people that no one will have to pay an electric bill from this day forward
2. No one will have to pay a speeding ticket till further notice
3. He is trying to please the people and keep the peace
4. Frank will explain more tonight

I wonder if they factored that electricity expense in their 2011 budget? If not, how do they plan to pay this?

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[2:53:51 PM] Family from Frank!! Maliki just announced to the Iraqi people. That no one will have to pay a electric bill from this day forward!! That no one will have to pay a water bill from this day forward!! No one will have to pay a speeding ticket till further notice!! Maliki is trying to please the people and keep the peace!!! Frank stated that he will explain more tonight....Please take it to prayer and he looks forward to sharing more on tonights CC

2-17-11 Huani: Federal Court Act is still under study within the House of Representatives

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A member of the Kurdish blocs said the draft law of the Federal Court is still under study within the Council of Representatives
2. He said the nomination of judges, the selection mechanism, and how to vote on them in the House are still in the process of being studied and need to be discussed more

2-17-11 Maliki: I will present candidates for the security ministries, the parliament in the absence of consensus

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliki said they've delayed giving the names of the security ministries because of the other ministries
2. He said that he has the names of the 3 security ministries, and he has additional candidates in case there is no agreement on the 3 names
3. The remainder of the article provides historical reference to the ministries and related events

Great news!

2-17-11 Skype chat - UN meeting results rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

This is already in a summarized format.

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[12:56:23 PM] *******™: .Here is what really happened today at the UN Security Council Meeting.

1. Back-room deal to lift Chapter 7 was agreed to on Monday, December 13, 2010 (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

2. Today’s meeting HAD to take place in order for every Member Country of the UN Security Council to have their say and vote, a formality which must take place, but a formality that was already governed by Monday’s agreement. (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

3. Meeting was held in accordance with Robert’s Rules of Order which are guidelines for how to run a Parliamentary meeting to make certain of smooth, orderly meeting and to give all participants the courtesy and respect of their fair-say, i.e. again, today’s public meeting HAD to take place – not proper to be determined solely in a back-room deal.

4. Considering the many items that are on the Agenda, not just the few such as 660 and 661, it would take forever for Iraq to comply if they had to do so prior to completely being lifted from Chapter 7. (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

5. Thus, the agreement entered into on Monday was that the UN will vote to agree to lift Chapter 7 with the caveat that if Iraq does not stay in full compliance, sanctions will be immediately re-placed upon Iraq. (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

6. All sanctions against Iraq are listed on the linked-site listed below. The site then gives another link for more recent sanctions; however 660, 661 and the important sanctions are on this site.

http://www.casi.org….fo/scriraq.html

7. Japan gave strong speech when it took it’s turn at UN Security Council Meeting which focused primarily on economics, i.e. “show me the money”

8. The multitude of Kuwaiti claims cannot be resolved in a moment’s time; another reason why Chapter 7 has been lifted with caveat, i.e. you screw Kuwait and you will be right back in sanctions. (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

9. Too much need by world economies for RV – sanctions against Iraq must be lifted; thus the deal was done on Monday and what you saw today are the formalities. One example, France is bankrupt but they are sitting on a stack of Iraqi Dinar – they need RV ASAP. (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

10. The Iraqi govt has been seated, just hasn’t been announced (source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

11. Govt contracts and independent contracts have to be honored. The infrastructure of Iraq has to be re-built. They cannot wait for Iraq to comply with everything prior to Sanctions being lifted. Covered in Monday’s meeting. (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

12. The Iraqi people need money to sustain a reasonable, respectable, and humanitarian life-style, i.e. RV must take place soon or major revolt (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

13. We are talking about a Dictatorship being turned into a Democracy. This takes time, indeed – years. Thus, Monday’s agreement to lift Chapter 7 and then come right back with more sanctions if Iraq does not follow through on their part of the deal. (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

14. The world needs Iraq’s oil; now! Thus, Monday’s agreement to lift Chapter 7 and then come right back with more sanctions if Iraq does not follow through on their part of the deal. (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

15. RV must and will happen within days. Rate has been given to Bank of America and FED. They are waiting for orders to send the wire to every bank immediately upon receiving said orders. (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

16. Bank of America is the market-maker and FED facilitator on this deal. Know the history of Bank of America and you know this to be fact without even having a qualified source (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

17. The deal is finished. EVERY country wants to get their piece of the pie so there will be some more back-room posturing and negotiating with every country knowing in advance that they will have to “horse-trade” quickly as the deal is actually finished. (Source – Attorney/Client Privilege)

18. The men and ladies of the Iraqi Government are extremely intelligent and well-educated, i.e. they come from wealthy families and studied overseas, not at the Community College of Tikrit! They are lawyers, economists and the like educated at the London School of Economics, Harvard, Wharton School of Business, etc. (Source – this is your homework assignment)

19. RV is imminent. (Read above)

20. The fat lady is gargling (Source – eagle)

2-17-11 House of Representatives Completed Discussion of the Federal Budget for 2011

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The House completed the discussion of the budget in its 34th session
2. There is a proposal to deduct one dollar from every barrel of oil and allocate it to the citizens
3. The interventions focused on the importance of providing the final accounts of all ministries and increasing investment allocations for the ministries of service
4. They also discussed seeking to cancel the 5% of oil revenue payment to Kuwait
5. It was noted that Maliki received the final accounts for the years 2003 - 2008, but the final accounts for 2008 and 2009 are still pending
6. It was also pointed out that all the preparations for the census is ready, although there are some obstacles
7. The next Parliament meeting will be on Saturday

2-17-11 Skype chat - Cagetrucker rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

1. Cage confirmed with 2 sources that the RV is complete
2. The UN is in an emergency meeting
3. Kuwait agreed and the UN is to lift all sanctions now
4. The RV will happen

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[11:43:53 AM] [CAGEtrucker] 43 MINUTES AGO RV is complete UN is in an EMERGENCY meeting I have confirmed this with 2 other sources. Kuwait has supposedly agreed and UN is to lift ALL sanctions NOW and RV will occur I hope it is correct. THAT is latest word I hope it is true been verified by a few sources

2-17-11 Kurds are demanding reduction of fuel prices and the establishment of power stations, warning the spread of the demonstrations

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The Kurds are demanding a reduction in fuel prices and the establishment of power stations, warning demonstration will spread
2. The Kurdistan Alliance told the GOI to reduce fuel prices and allocate funds in the budget for the establishment of power stations in the governorates of Iraq
3. They also called for the ration cards to be increased to 25k from 15k
4. On the 8th of February, the Cabinet decided to allocate 500 billion dinars in compensation for citizens due to the lack of ration card items, and they increased the ration card to 15k
5. The Kurdish deputy presented these demands to the President of the House and expressed hopes that the demands would be met in order to curve the demonstrations occurring due to poor services and high prices of oil derivatives
6. In the last 2 weeks, Iraq has seen popular demonstration inspired by the events in the Arab countries
7. The demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt have led to the fall of their governments
8. The remainder of the article discusses the various demonstrations in Iraq

2-17-11 Deputy for Iraq: The Delay in the Final Accounts Will Not Prevent the Vote to Pass Budget

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A member of the List said that the absence of the final accounts for the past year will not hold up the budget
2. The House will vote on the budget before the final accounts are submitted
3. The CBI said it would be in an awkward position if it does not recognize the budget
3. An MP from the Sadr movement said a committee was formed and they found that 15% of the budget from the ministry of defense

2-17-11 Parliamentary committee calls on Kuwait to cancel debt as it weighs on budget

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The Economic Committee called for Kuwait to exempt Iraq from paying 5% of their oil exports, and for eliminating the remainder of Iraq's debts
2. 5% of Iraq's oil exports goes to the compensation fund for Kuwait in order to repay the debt Iraq owes to Kuwait
3. Iraq owes Kuwait 22 billion dollars
4. The remainder of the article discusses Maliki's visit to Kuwait, and provides an historical perspective relating to Iraq's relation with Kuwait as it pertains to Chapter 7

2-17-11 Maliki will hold a press conference later today addressing economic reform, protests, and Kuwait

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliiki will hold an afternoon press conference where he will address a range of issues
2. The most important topics will be economic reform, the ongoing demonstrations, and the results of his visit to Kuwait

2-17-11 Skpe chat - PD Rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. The RV is ready for launch within the next 24 hours
2. This does not mean you can cash in tomorrow
3. Cash in is likely Monday or Tuesday
4. They've been told Maliki is possibly going to RV today/tonight to avoid protesters destroying cities and properties over the holy weekend
5. He also wants to demonstrate that they are moving quickly to meet the demands of showing respect towards the needs of the people


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FROM DONNIE I'm going to keep this short because we have just received information the RV is ready for launch within the next 24 hrs. This does not mean you will be able to cashin tomorrow but most likely Monday or Tuesday. We are told M is possibly going to RV today/ tonight to avoid protestors distroying various cities and property in Iraq over the holy weekend. M also wants to demonstrate that they are moving quickly to meet the demands of showing respect towards the needs of the Iraqi people. Talk about taking it to the 11th hour, folks, this is where we truly are at this juncture of the RV. I will not give a rate simply for the reason we cannot confirm it, although I'm very sure we will all be very pleased with the results. As far as I'm concerned, we don't need anymore confusing information as this rollercoaster ride is coming to a complete stop within 24 hrs. Sit back and enjoy your day, the train is approaching the station. Pray for the Iraqi people and our troops! I look forward to seeing you in S.F

2-17-11 House Held its 34th Led by Alngivi and Attend 235 Seats

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A source in the House said that the House met today and the agenda included the second reading of the draft Council of the Magistracy
2. They also continued the debate on the budget

Note: Parliament will meet again on Saturday

2-17-11 Melkert: I think after exchange of visits by prime ministers all issues especially those of the border will be solved

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Melkert described the meetings between Maliki and the Emir of Kuwait as a success
2. He also said that he thinks that after their meeting, all issues, especially those of the border will be solved

This article discusses their agreements

Now this is what I was looking for! When the UN initially listed all sanctions except those relating to Kuwait, they basically said that Baghdad and Kuwait needed to "agree" on the outstanding items before they would lift the remaining sanctions. They didn't say they needed to address and complete all outstanding items. Yesterday's news mentioned that a committee would be formed and would meet in the middle of March to begin addressing issues. I do not believe we need to wait for the outcome of those meetings before we see Chapter 7 lifted in full.

2-17-11 Jaafar al-Sadr submit his resignation from the membership of the House of Representatives

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Jaafar al-Sadr resigned from the membership of the House today
2. His resignation comes in protest against the deterioration of services and the inability of government to provide anything for the people
3. He is in solidarity with the demonstrators who are demanding to confront corruption and unemployment

2-17-11 Maliki confirmed his commitment to political agreements

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliki said that he and Allawi committed themselves to all the completed agreements
2. He said they agreed on something and they committed themselves and will abide by all the details of the agreement according tot he context of the agreement concluded between the various political parties
3. He said they reject any new interpretations of any new agreements

2-17-11 Vote on the budget

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. An member of the List said it was agreed in the House to set Sunday as the day for a vote on the budget

This article says the budget might be completed on Monday

2-17-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1837)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 17-FEB-2011. The results were as follows:

DETAILS	NOTES
Number of banks	15
Auction price selling dinar / US$	1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$	-----
Amount sold at auction price (US$)	163,225,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)	-----
Total offers for buying (US$)	163,225,000
Total offers for selling (US$)	-----

Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets