Wednesday, January 26, 2011

1-26-11 Recap of the day's event/posting

Facts:
1.       CBI auction results

Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
2.       Med chat
3.       A good opinion piece
4.       Okie Oil Man chat

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1.       None

Where Are We At?
1.       Over the last couple of days, the CBI’s auction results have showed small amounts compared to what they normally auction off.  The last time it was this low was back in the 3rd week of November.
2.       As it relates to government formation news, the storm brewed up by Maliki and the Federal Court still hasn’t cleared.  In fact, today’s news seems to be showing more and more government officials protesting the ruling.  Parliament will be reviewing the decision in their first meeting after the recess, and they will be asking the Federal Court for explicit reasons behind the ruling.  The Federal Court seems to be standing firm on their decision and says that it is binding and cannot be appealed. 
3.       Iraq continues to work on their accession to the WTO.  A delegation is in Geneva working with the WTO to review how Iraq is progressing.  To date, Iraq has passed 27 economic related laws and is working on additional laws that will open up their country to trade around the globe.
4.       In regards to the budget, there was another article stating that the budget deficit will be filled if the oil prices increase to $97 per barrel.  Also, there was news stating that the budget may not be passed until the first part of Feb.
5.       With regards to rumors, I’ll start with the good stuff.  There was an opinion piece that provided some history and reasons why the value of the Dinar will rise.  If you’re feeling like you’re on the down slope of the roller coaster ride, this might be a good piece to read to bring you back up a little!  This is in the rumor category because it is an opinion piece.  Now onto the real rumors.  It’s one person’s opinion that while we are viewing Maliki as the bad guy, he really isn’t the bad guy.  It’s everyone else!  This person believes that Maliki is actually trying to do what we all want him to do, which is get the government to RV.  This is why he did what he did in regards to the independent bodies.  On the flip side of this, we have those who believe that Maliki got himself into a fire storm and could pay for this by way of Parliament casting a vote of no confidence, which would oust him as the PM designate and possibly place Allawi in as the new PM designate.  I say PM designate because Maliki still has not yet formed a full government, or so we believe.  On that note, did you hear Obama’s speech last night?  He did say that Iraq has a new sovereign government.  Whether that means what we expect it to mean remains in question.  

What’s left?
1.    Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).
2.    Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)
3.    Formal announcement of government
4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6.    RV/RI
7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?
1.       Beginning with the government formation, there continues to be news of the mess that was created by the Federal Court’s ruling.  Although Maliki already said that he will return control of the CBI to the House, there are other independent bodies that remain under Maliki’s control per the Fed Court ruling.  News today was more geared towards the other ministries, but most, if not all of the articles referenced the CBI.  Furthermore, the Fed Court is not budging on their ruling.  Parliament, however, does have the right to make an amendment and could possibly resolve all of the issues.  One potential problem we could see is that Parliament can’t do much with Maliki not present in the meetings.  Maliki will be leaving this Sunday for a regional tour.  In other government related news, it appears that there is progress in the security ministry positions as evidenced by the Kurds giving up the Department of Homeland Security position.
2.       With regards to the CBI auctions being low, it has been said that the RV will happen after the auctions show low results or stop.  The reasoning is that Iraq would not want to sell lots of dinar right before an RV because they could have more money by keeping it instead.
3.      Lastly, something new came up today for me, in regards to executive order 13303, Okie said that executive order 13303 will expire and not be renewed on 5/12.  What this means is that we can no longer purchase Dinar after that date.  The theory behind the subsequent rumor is that the RV will be done by this date and we won’t have to worry about it.  There is a related posting about 13303 and “The Plan”.  It’s an interesting read on another person’s take on what might happen.
4.       The news of Iraq continuing their work on ascending to the WTO is good news.  The WTO has said in the recent past that one of the requirements of Iraq to ascend to the WTO is that they must close the gap between their currency and the US dollar.  What better way than to RV?!





1-26-11 Melkert: Committed to resolving the issue of the disputed areas

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of the article

1. Secretary-General of the United Nations said that it is time to solve the outstanding differences on the disputed areas, especially in Kirkuk
2. Melkert's visit to Kirkuk was dedicated to resolving the differences
3. Melkert hoped to reach agreement on many issues and found a desire to resolve the outstanding problems

1-26-11 Othman: House of Representatives will resolve the issue of vote on National Council

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article on TCN

1. Othman said that the Kurdish blocs will decide the issue of whether to vote in the House or within the National Council on the Law of the National Council for the strategic policies
2. He said there must be agreement by all political blocs in order to vote

1-26-11 Kurdish lawmaker doesn’t believe budget will be adopted next week, possibly the following week

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the link below to get the details of the article on DD

1. Kurdish lawmaker in the Iraq Council of Representatives said that the budget will be approved in the next week because of legal and technical problems
2. The budget will be read for a second time in the second week

1-26-11 Iraqi Federal Court Confirms «Final» Link Independent Bodies with Government

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of the article

1. The Federal Court confirmed its decision to link the independent institutions to the Council of Ministers instead of Parliament
2. The Court promised to study the possibility of responding to the request for interpretation of resolution presented by the CBI
3. Court's decision is binding and cannot be appealed

1-26-11 Okie Oil Man chat

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Maliki and Shabibi are in a power struggle
2. Maliki might face a no confidence vote, which would remove him
3. Obama will not renew 13303 after 5/12/11
4. Not renewing 13303 means Americans can no longer purchase Dinar
5. IMF is now in a position to control things

Read more about 13303 and "The Plan"
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[******] 10:14 AM PST [OKIE_OIL_MAN] too much to post--maliki and shabbi now in power strugle--code words last nite indicated at least a week till r/v-if then-more to follow-will post more when i can wade thru intel in from D.C. Last nite--imf and world bank heavily involved and it's a very convoluted situation-don't start with the rate and date crap--who knows for sure--will share more as day progresses
[******] 10:16 AM PST [OKIE_OIL_MAN] maliki possibility of a no confidence vote which would remove him
[******] 10:17 AM PST [OKIE_OIL_MAN] obama will not re-new 13303 after deadline of may 12-2011

[******] 10:17 AM PST [OKIE_OIL_MAN] obama will not re-new 13303 after deadline of may 12-2011; not removal only concerns investing and buying--nothing to do with our dinar we hold now
[******] 10:21 AM PST [OKIE_OIL_MAN] non renewal of 13303 has nothing to do with the dinars we now hold or our ability to cash in--parliment re-convenes feb 1-may or may not have implications on r/v
[******] 10:23 AM PST [OKIE_OIL_MAN] imf now in position to control situation--they have gone as far as they want to go--crunch time
[*******] Obama will not have to re-new 13303--will be moot point at that time. Do not worry about your investment-it is legal and binding on iraq to honor the value of their dinar internationally-- simply stated--your dinar is to have value-period-

1-26-11 A good opinion piece reassuring you of this investment

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this opinion piece

This is a good opinion piece offering facts and historical information about the Dinar. It also offers an explanation as to why the author feels the Dinar will increase.

1-26-11 Med chat from 2:37 am

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this posting on J4D (membership required)

1. Iraq must RV prior to the DFI extension expiring in June
2. They have debts to pay. If they do not have a tradable currency, it will force creditors to go after the assets being protected by the DFI
3. Iraq has waited 19 years to get the assets back that are protected by the DFI
4. Iraq is recruiting US companies and telling them that a valuation of the IQD is coming
5. Med is not concerned with it not happening. He's just concerned about what might come up next to delay it
6. Med is watching for the budget to be read and the remaining seats to be filled
7. No vote on ministry positions this Sunday since Maliki will be out of the country

1-26-11 Parliament Saturday looking dangerous decision of the Federal House and warn the government's control on the control

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Informed political sources confirmed that Parliament will discuss the recent Federal Court ruling allowing Maliki to take control of the independent institutions
2. In the opinion of Congress, the ruling is shrouded in mystery and the Constitution is clear on where the independent institutions should reside
3. The House will ask the Court to provide details of their decision
4. The relationship of the Electoral Commission for elections and Maliki after he accused them of manipulating votes
5. Chapter IV, Article (102) states that the Supreme Commission for Human Rights, the independent Higher Commission for Elections, the Integrity Commission, and other independent bodies are under the control of the House
6. Article (103) states that the CBI, Financial Inspection Office, Communications and Endowment are also part of the same section in 5 (meaning they should be under the control of the House)
7. The House should have a clear role in these decisions because it represents the decline of the democratic process and an attempt to circumvent the separation of powers

1-26-11 $$$$ Commerce Sent a Delegation to Geneva to Conduct Negotiations to Join the World Trade Organization $$$$

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of the article

1. Ministry of Commerce sent a delegation to Geneva for the 3rd round of negotiations on Iraq's accession to the WTO
2. The delegation includes officials from the department of economic relations
3. The purpose of the meeting is to clarify what progress Iraq has made in the way of its accession, and to discuss or review new requirements
4. Iraq passed 27 laws in the area of the economy, and some other laws are still under discussion. All of these laws aim to make Iraq's economy open and flexible and able to interact with the wold economies

Iraq has been slowly but surely working with the WTO to gain accession to it. Number 4 above pretty much says it all. They want to open up their country for trade around the world. This suggests that they cannot continue to keep their currency right where it is today. They can't because it is not globally tradable, and there is very little value. One of the requirements the WTO placed on them is to close the gap between the USD and their currency. At some juncture, they will need to RV/RI to meet this requirement. I see this news as a positive step towards what we all seek.

1-26-11 Kurdistan: Accepted Instead of National Security Intelligence to End Controversy Over Security Ministries

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Kurdistan announced they gave up the Department of Homeland security position to end the controversy over the security ministries
2. They are holding onto the Intelligence position
3. The selection of the candidates was made behind closed doors
4. The National Alliance will fill the DoH ministry

1-26-11 Chat regarding Maliki being the US' choice

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Maliki is great for Iraq because he is what they need
2. Maliki is tired of the games. The US is tired of the games
3. They will RV and they will do it on his timeline
4. Maliki is NOT being directed by Iran like many think. He is the link between Iraq and Iran
5. Maliki is working with the US to get this done
6. The others in a position to do this were not moving forward
7. Maliki is saying we MUST get this done now, and I (Maliki) will get it done now
8. Maliki was trying to do it the right way by trusting his government, but that didn't work
9. The world will not let this fail, and will not remove Maliki

The person who is saying this is someone with a connection to a very high source. I will leave it at that but wanted to let you know this is not just a chat forum member expressing an opinion.

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[Main speaker] morning all....
[Main speaker] Nada...I have one comment......
[******] comment away
[Main speaker] and this is in all my sincerity....
[Main speaker] Maliki is GREAT for Iraq....TRUST me
[Main speaker] he is what they need and will lead them to being one of the greatest democracys in the ME
[******]
[******] Main speaker. what was up w that stunt of his the other day?
[Main speaker] No stunt...he is tired of the games...
[Main speaker] the United States is tired of the games
[******] Main speaker so he did that because they won't RV?
[Main speaker] They will Rv...and now they will on his timeline
[Main speaker] Maliki is NOT being directed by Iran like many of the so-called experts think..he is the link between Iraq and Iran
[******] Main speaker i remember you saying that before
[Main speaker] just look at Sadr...BIG hint right there
[Main speaker] Yes, maliki has ties to Iran, but he knows who butters his bread...and that is the US. He IS working with us to get this done...the way we want it
[******] Main speaker Main speaker Not that I believe that, but I don't care if he's good for Iraq . . He may be tired of the games, but that's what politics and compromise are about. . . Maliki may be good now, but he's still a dictator wannabee and then never ends well . . . .
[Main speaker] Absolutely ******...Maliki told Sadr "Bye"
[******] not only is maliki behind giving the central ogvernment control of the bank
[******] the supreme court there backed him up when tehy voted on it last week
[Main speaker] That is the impression, ******, but only because we are looking at this through Western Civilization eyes
[******] so ****** this is a good sign
[Main speaker] the others in those positions had no "cajones" and were never moving forward..
[Main speaker] Maliki is saying we MUST get this done now
[Main speaker] and I will get it done
[Main speaker] Maliki can't do it all...
[Main speaker] and he was trying to do it the right way....by trusting his gov't...that didn't work...
[Main speaker] It will happen...not overnight, but it will...this is a fledgling gov't
[Main speaker] The civilized world and politics have their footprint all over this "plan"...We (the world) will not allow it to fail...that includes the expulsion of Maliki
[Main speaker] and it may...I hope it does too, but maliki is not going anywhere...He is OUR (USA) man

1-26-11 A delegation from the Kurdistan regional government to visit Baghdad for talks on the General Budget for 2011

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A delegation specialized in financial affairs is scheduled to visit Baghdad to resolve issues concerning the budget of the region

1-26-11 Deputy for the center: Parliament calls for an end to the Federal Court for their constant mistakes

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. MP for the coalition center Khalid Abdullah al-Alwani, called for the House to put an end to the Federal Court and said that they are the reason for the delay in forming the government
2. He said that their decision is a coup against the Constitution and its opinion is not binding on the House

Note: The Federal Court decision in regards to the CBI was settled yesterday when Maliki said he would return control of the CBI back to the House.

1-26-11 Current oil prices will fill a budget deficit in Iraq

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. Official from the Finance Ministry said that Iraq will fill the budget deficit (expected to reach $13.6 b at current prices) if oil reaches $97 a barrel
2. He said that borrowing from the CBI is not needed
3. In regards to the recent Federal Court ruling, he said that he expected the IMF to reverse the decision

1-26-11 INA / Iraq: Minister al-Maliki had not been consulted in the decisions recently taken by

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of the article

1. Member of Parliament and spokesman for the Iraqi Haider Mulla said that the ministers of his list will have a position on the decisions of Maliki
2. He also said that they were not consulted by Maliki (in reference to the recent Federal Court ruling on independent institutions)
3. He said the ruling is a violation on the Constitution
4. He said that the ruling is a coup against the agreements reached between the political blocs and Barzani

1-26-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1822)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 26-JAN-2011. The results were as follows:
Details Notes
Number of banks 10
Auction price selling dinar / US$ 1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$ -----
Amount sold at auction price (US$) 63,970,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) -----
Total offers for buying (US$) 63,970,000
Total offers for selling (US$) -----
Exchange rates
Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets