1-26-11 Recap of the day's event/posting

Facts:

1.       CBI auction results

2.       Maliki’s ministers had not been consulted in the decisions recently taken by the Federal Court

3.       Current oil prices will fill a budget deficit

4.       Parliament calls for an end to the Fed Court for their mistakes

5.       Kurds visit Baghdad for talks on general budget

6.       Kurdistan accepted Intelligence instead of Department of Homeland security

7.       Delegation sent to Geneva to negotiate joining the WTO

8.       Parliament looking at the Fed Courts decision

9.       Iraqi  Federal Court confirms its decision

10.   Kurdish lawmaker believes budget to be adopted the following week

11.   Othman says Kurdish blocs will decide the issue of whether to vote in the House or within the National Council

12.   Melkert committed to resolving the issue of the disputed areas

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.       Chat regarding Maliki being the US’ choice

2.       Med chat

3.       A good opinion piece

4.       Okie Oil Man chat

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.       None

Where Are We At?

1.       Over the last couple of days, the CBI’s auction results have showed small amounts compared to what they normally auction off.  The last time it was this low was back in the 3^rd week of November.

2.       As it relates to government formation news, the storm brewed up by Maliki and the Federal Court still hasn’t cleared.  In fact, today’s news seems to be showing more and more government officials protesting the ruling.  Parliament will be reviewing the decision in their first meeting after the recess, and they will be asking the Federal Court for explicit reasons behind the ruling.  The Federal Court seems to be standing firm on their decision and says that it is binding and cannot be appealed. 

3.       Iraq continues to work on their accession to the WTO.  A delegation is in Geneva working with the WTO to review how Iraq is progressing.  To date, Iraq has passed 27 economic related laws and is working on additional laws that will open up their country to trade around the globe.

4.       In regards to the budget, there was another article stating that the budget deficit will be filled if the oil prices increase to $97 per barrel.  Also, there was news stating that the budget may not be passed until the first part of Feb.

5.       With regards to rumors, I’ll start with the good stuff.  There was an opinion piece that provided some history and reasons why the value of the Dinar will rise.  If you’re feeling like you’re on the down slope of the roller coaster ride, this might be a good piece to read to bring you back up a little!  This is in the rumor category because it is an opinion piece.  Now onto the real rumors.  It’s one person’s opinion that while we are viewing Maliki as the bad guy, he really isn’t the bad guy.  It’s everyone else!  This person believes that Maliki is actually trying to do what we all want him to do, which is get the government to RV.  This is why he did what he did in regards to the independent bodies.  On the flip side of this, we have those who believe that Maliki got himself into a fire storm and could pay for this by way of Parliament casting a vote of no confidence, which would oust him as the PM designate and possibly place Allawi in as the new PM designate.  I say PM designate because Maliki still has not yet formed a full government, or so we believe.  On that note, did you hear Obama’s speech last night?  He did say that Iraq has a new sovereign government.  Whether that means what we expect it to mean remains in question.  

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).

2.    Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.       Beginning with the government formation, there continues to be news of the mess that was created by the Federal Court’s ruling.  Although Maliki already said that he will return control of the CBI to the House, there are other independent bodies that remain under Maliki’s control per the Fed Court ruling.  News today was more geared towards the other ministries, but most, if not all of the articles referenced the CBI.  Furthermore, the Fed Court is not budging on their ruling.  Parliament, however, does have the right to make an amendment and could possibly resolve all of the issues.  One potential problem we could see is that Parliament can’t do much with Maliki not present in the meetings.  Maliki will be leaving this Sunday for a regional tour.  In other government related news, it appears that there is progress in the security ministry positions as evidenced by the Kurds giving up the Department of Homeland Security position.

2.       With regards to the CBI auctions being low, it has been said that the RV will happen after the auctions show low results or stop.  The reasoning is that Iraq would not want to sell lots of dinar right before an RV because they could have more money by keeping it instead.

3.      Lastly, something new came up today for me, in regards to executive order 13303, Okie said that executive order 13303 will expire and not be renewed on 5/12.  What this means is that we can no longer purchase Dinar after that date.  The theory behind the subsequent rumor is that the RV will be done by this date and we won’t have to worry about it.  There is a related posting about 13303 and “The Plan”.  It’s an interesting read on another person’s take on what might happen.

4.       The news of Iraq continuing their work on ascending to the WTO is good news.  The WTO has said in the recent past that one of the requirements of Iraq to ascend to the WTO is that they must close the gap between their currency and the US dollar.  What better way than to RV?!