Thursday, March 3, 2011

3-3-11 Recap of the day's event's/postings

Facts:


Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

Where Are We At?
1.     Today was an extremely busy news day, and unfortunately, I could not get to all the news that I wanted to due to my schedule.  So I apologize about that.  I will say more about this another time.  Let’s start with Allawi.  News reported that he did abandon the post for the presidency of the Supreme Council.  He faults Maliki for procrastination and not implementing the agreements.  While he won’t run for the presidency seat, he made it clear that the List will still participate in the government.  Then, the news reported that hours after his announcement, Allawi met with Sadr.  He then met with the Supreme Islamic Council to discuss activating agreements reached among different political parties.  He reported that “they” want to activate the national partnership to respond to the people’s demands and to take a unified position in Parliament and government to satisfy the people.  Also, the Sadr front threatened to stop supporting Maliki’s government if he keeps up with his weak performance and failures.  They hinted they will ally with Allawi to form a parliamentary majority in case the government fails to provide the people with what they need.  Finally, the National Alliance said that the Federal Council would be a suitable alternative for Allawi in the absence of him getting the presidency for the National Council.  He said the Liberals from the Sadrist movement agree that it would be appropriate for Allawi to chair the Federal Council, which parallels the Presidency of the Council of Representatives.  It was noted that the Iraqi constitution stipulates that the federal legislative power shall consist of the House and the Federal Council, which will be aimed at link the House with the provincial councils, but that the Council did not yet enact a law
2.     In other news, Talabani and Maliki met to discuss politics in Iraq and the Arab regions and the need to complete the Cabinet for the security ministers.  They also discussed the demonstrations and the need for government to meet the needs of the protester’s demands
3.     The minister of Human Rights visted Iraq for the purpose of reviewing Iraq’s progress in a number of different areas.  The minister expressed the hope to support Iraq’s efforts in the area of the missing Kuwaitis, and he noted that this is important in ending the procedures of Chapter 7 sanctions on Iraq
4.     A media spokesman for the ministry of electricity said that they asked China to give them a soft loan for the establishment of a major project to provide energy.  In return, Iraq would grant China the right to a large project to establish maintenance centers, the transfer of national power grids to air and ground to organize the distribution of power stations, distribution centers, and establishment of sophisticated communications
5.     On the rumor front, Med said that Shabibi has been busy eliminating debt behind the scenes.  He also suggested that a mini coup is taking place where the Sadrists and the Islamic Council are teaming up with the List to move the power from Maliki to Allawi.  Ray talked with Ali about the ration cards and was told that a one time arrangement has been made that allows citizens to get three times their normal monthly rations.  He also said that Parliament is looking at candidates again and will make an annoucement next week on who is selected, and they will vote on the HCL next week
What’s left?
1.    Vote on the budget – Done!
2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3.    Formal announcement of government
4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6.    RV/RI
7.    HCL

Important Dates
1.     February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2.     February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3.     February – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies (not sure if this will happen now that Allawi stepped out)
4.     February 25  -- Large demonstration
5.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government; did not happen, unless it already happened and wasn’t made public
6.     March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011
7.     March 5 – Maliki may hand over the 3 security ministry candidates and Parliament may vote on them
8.     March 29-30 – Arab Summit
9.     May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
10.  May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
11.  June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?
1.     Yesterday, I rattled off a few options with regard to what I thought might happen with Allawi’s decision to not take the presidency of the National Council.  Option 4, which was for Allawi to return, was my choice.  I just didn’t think he’d return that quickly!  He’s clearly not interested in taking the presidency seat for the National Council.  Instead, it appears that he’s “activating” agreements made with other political blocks in an attempt to either put serious pressure on Maliki to do what he’s supposed to do, or he’s working with the other blocs to gain control over Maliki through Parliament and majority.  The combination of the List, Sadrits, and the Supreme Islamic Council will mean that Allawi will control the majority in Parliament.  Also, Nujaifi said recently that Parliament is the supreme authority.  When you look at all that has happened recently, it is clear that Allawi negotiated these arrangements a while ago.  He knew he would need a plan C if his earnest attempts to get Maliki to comply by getting Barzani’s and the US’ assistance failed.  Plan C then, was to gain agreement with the Sadrists and the SIC.  Then, we see Nujaifi’s statement about Parliament being the supreme authority.  Nice setup.  Allawi steps out, “activates” prior agreements with the Sadrist and SIC, and they publicly begin to put pressure on Maliki.  The Sadrists threaten to leave Maliki’s party if the doesn’t meet the demands of the people.  They publicly announce they activated their agreement to form a uniform party.  Then, we see recommendations from the Sadrists and the National Alliance about Allawi being suitable for the chair of the Federal Council, which has equal powers to the Presidency of the Council of Representatives.  Maliki knows what this all could mean for him, and I have to believe he’s not feeling real comfortable about what he’s seeing. 
2.     In other matters, Iraq is moving forward on many fronts, which will help them rebuild and grow their country.  There is news about banking reform, news of them obtaining loans from China to expand their ability to provide more electricity to the citizens, news of Maliki asking the MOF to find ways of eliminating the debt of their citizens, news of them eliminating their non-Paris club debt, news of them setting up an international trust fund that will be used to fund the reconstruction efforts, and the approval of the IMF on the accession of Iraq to the general system for the dissemination of data.  These are all good and necessary steps required to create a stable and strong economy
3.     This weekend will be an interesting weekend.  Maliki is supposed to hand over the 3 security ministries either Saturday or Sunday, and Parliament should be able to vote on them.  Maliki has said this many times.  So, all we can do at this point is wait to see if he actually does it.  Allawi is out of the way for now.  However, as mentioned above, Allawi, the Sadrists, and the SIC are likely applying even more pressure for Maliki to complete the government now that they’ve joined together and basically voiced their displeasure with Maliki’s performance and failures.  But, that’s all about this weekend.  Tomorrow being Friday should be a slow news day, but we’ll see


3-3-11 Skype chat: Update from Ray (PD)

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS/OPINIONS

1. Ray talked with Ali
2. He asked about the ration cards that Joe P wanted to know about
3. Ali said Parliament fixed the problem last night
4. Iraqis will get a one time triple portion
5. Every person will get a card worth 250 dinar
6. They will take the card to the store and receive 3 times the normal portion of food items
7. A few months ago, there was a shortage of food items so the people were not able to get their monthly rations
8. This is a one time thing
9. He said Parliament is looking at candidates again and will make an announcement next week on who was selected
10. Parliament will also voting on various laws next week, including the HCL
11. He said Allawi made an announcement that he is supporting the current government 100$, and Ray thought this was huge news


*****************************************************************************

Steve,
Just got off the phone with Ali. Here is the latest he told me. I asked him about the ration cards that JoeP wanted to know about. Ali told me that Parliament fixed the problem last night. All the people will get a one time triple portion. He explained to me how it works. Every person gets a card with $250 dinar on it. This includes the children too. They take their card to the store and they receive so much rice, flour, oil and sugar. A few months ago there was a shortage of these food stuffs so people were not able to get their monthly rations. This month when they go to the store they will get three months of food instead of one month of food. As he said, this is a one time thing.

He also said that Parliament is looking at the candidates again and will make an announcement next week on who they selected. They are also going to be voting on various laws next week, including the oil and gas law. The money changer is hoping that they will announce the RV late next week.

In passing, he also said that Allawi made an announcement that he is supporting the current government 100%. I think this is huge news and he just said it in passing.

That is all for now. Will keep you and everyone posted when I hear more.

God Bless,

Ray

3-3-11 Al-Iraqiya Leader, Iraq’s Supreme Islamic Council’s Chairman, Discuss Activation of Agreements Among Political Blocs

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The chairman of the supreme Iraqi islamic council (SIIC) and Allawi discussed the activation of the agreements reached among different Iraqi political parties
2. They want to activate the national partnership to respond to the people's demands
3. Both sides discussed the most important political issues in Iraq as well as the necessity to activate the agreements concluded among different Iraqi political parties
4. They want to activate the agreements to take a unified position in Parliament and government to satisfy the people
5. The agreed on the creation of a real partnership that will carry out its commitments towards their people and aimed at achieving their demands
6. Adel Abdul-Mahdi also attended the meeting

This article talks about Allawi confirming his support for Sadr's demands for services and demonstrations

Allawi is clearly not out of the picture. He may have bowed out of the presidency for the Council, but he's busy activating agreements with SIIC and Sadr in a likely attempt to gain control in Parliament. Recall that Parliament said just a few days back that they are the supreme authority. That means Maliki is not. If Allawi is successful in garnering support away from Maliki and gets majority backing in Parliament, he will be in control and Maliki will not. Game is not over I guess.

3-3-11 Iraq’s Electricity Minister asks China for soft loans to finance the energy project

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The media spokesman for the ministry of electricity said asked China to give them a soft loan for the establishment of a major project to provide energy
2. Last month, the ministry of electricity announced its intention to launch licensing rounds for investment in the electricity sector in the country
3. The project includes the establishment of maintenance centers and the transfer of national power grids to air and ground to organize the distribution of power stations, distribution centers, and the establishment of sophisticated communications
4. He explained that if the Chinese government approved, the project will estimate the proportion of the loan, and the project will be granted to Chinese companies
5. They are waiting for a response from China on the soft loan

3-3-11 Med Chats (2): Dinar Speculator 3/3/11 1:30 & 6am

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. Interesting moves in the world of Iraqi politics
2. Most of were thinking Shabibi was not doing anything because the RV or removal of zeros has not hit the net in a while
3. Shabibi has been busy making deals with thousands of companies and individuals to pay off that debt internationally and to protect the assets abroad
4. It had to be no small task
5. Med was thinking the government was not the hold up
6. Now he is certain it is not
7. It looks like a mini political coup may be brewing against Maliki
8. The Sadrist (40 seats) and the Islamic Counsel (18 seats), and who are both part of the National Alliance, are not happy with Maliki
9. It looks like they are both making deals with the List to move the power from Maliki to Allawi
10. Med is not sure what else needs to be done to finish this
11. It might be implementing the free market or the things they are resolving now before the free market can be implemented
12. Time is on our side--not Maliki's
13. The fate of Maliki's government is in the fold and the economy has to move
14. The economy won't survive another year
15. Given the choice, they either move to a free market or flounder
16. Maliki gave them a timeline of 100 days
17. If his government does not produce the results, he will not see 101
18. Violations of constitutional rights will be his downfall
19. For government to be successful, they must provide power, water, jobs
20. USD is not allowed for use by the Iraqi people
21. Contractors on military bases are paid by the US Govt
22. If contractors are in Iraq for the Iraqi government, the government has USD to pay them
23. One issue many in Iraq are having with Shabibi is that he promised an RV in 2010
24. Many economist in Iraq are not happy he didn't give it
25. Now he says for sure in 2011; he said he was fine tuning things
26. Astro believes the hold up on the RV is procedural and not related to the 3 ministries

Chat 2
1. This thing with Allawi dumping the strategic counsel and mending fences with Sadr and with Hakim is piquing Med's curiosity
2. It's like Allawi didn't want the counsel. He wants the PM
3. The investigation going on could get serious and Med thinks it will hit the Daiwa party hard
4. Maliki is trying to control what is going on in the country by stopping twitter and facebook from being used
5. That is definitely a violation of the constitutional rights
6. Med does not see twitter and facebook helping Maliki
7. Maliki is backed into a corner and has half of Parliament against him
8. His countrymen are not calling for him to get the boot yet, but it is not far from going from a small fire to an inferno
9. The private sector and jobs will be the turning point
10. Med thinks they are in a real bind and they cannot get the water and electricity done in 100 days
11. If they tell the people they won't get things done in another year or two, that will put things over the top and there will be some type of major revolution
12. Could be by parliament or by major protests followed by a move by parliament against Maliki
13. If Shabibi is working on whatever is needed to ensure some type of success quickly in the private sector, stopping rising inflation, and moving to the free market, the dinar will have to change
14. Med believes that the move to the free market is not a long-term goal, but more about getting it done to settle debts and protect the assets abroad
15. This probably consumed all of Shabibi's time since December when he was told to start
16. Not much more to discuss as much is the same...unhappy people, discontent with the political scene, and their demands are the same
17. Parliament will be back in session and we will see what they do
18. If Parliament continues to postpone sessions, the people will not have confidence in Parliament and render them worthless

3-3-11 Sadr Front threatens to ally with Allawi

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The Sadr front threatened to stop supporting Maliki's government if he keeps up with his weak performance and failures
2. They front even hinted they will ally with Allawi to form a parliamentary majority in case the government fails to provide the people with the needed services within the 6 month deadline Sadr set
3. The Sadr front believes the 6 month deadline is more realistic compared to the 100 day deadline set by Maliki

3-3-11 National Alliance: a proper replacement for the Federal Council on Allawi Policy Council

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The head of the Alohraarvi Alttiaralsdri affiliated with the National Council said that Allawi abandon the presidency of the Council of strategic policies because he is convinced that the political blocs are not serious about enacting the Law of the Council
2. He said that the presidency of the Federal Council would be a suitable alternative for Allawi in the absence of the enactment of the Policy Board
3. He said the Board policies faced great difficulty for approval to enact the Law of the Council because there is no position like it in the Constitution
4. He said the Liberals from the Sadrist movement also agree that it would be appropriate for Allawi to chair the Federal Council which is parallel to the Presidency of the Council of Representatives
5. It was noted in the article that the Iraqi constitution stipulates that the federal legislative power shall consist of the House and the Federal Council, which will be aimed at linking the House of Representatives with the provincial councils in order to coordinate and resolve a lot of problems and outstanding issues, but that the Council did not enact a law so far

3-3-11 Minister meets the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross and with him looking file missing Kuwaitis

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The minister of human rights visited Iraq for the purpose of reviewing progress in the area of prisoners, missing persons, liberty of the blind people, and cooperation in the draft of blind person's freedoms
2. The minister said he is prepared to cooperate with any international organization specializing in the area of prisons and detention centers and that Iraq will seek to complete legislative action on the agreement
3. He also expressed the hope to support Iraq's efforts in the area of the missing Kuwaitis
4. It was stated that #3 is important in ending the procedures of Chapter 7 sanctions on Iraq
5. He said it isn't logical to keep this file on hold forever since Iraq has been working on all of the capabilities of what is in the resolution of this file (Chapter 7)

Iraq continues its work on getting out of the remaining sanctions in Chapter 7. We see this with all the news relating to Kuwait as well as in this article.

3-3-11 Talabani and Al-Maliki Confirmed Eligibility by Offering Services ... And Discuss the Security Crisis Ministries

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliki met with Talabani and discussed the political side in Iraq and Arab regions as well as the need to complete the Cabinet for the security minters
2. They also discussed the demonstrations and the need for government to meet the needs of the protester's demands
3. Talabani stressed the meeting was positive and addresse all issues concerning the political process in Iraq

3-3-11 Allawi announced he has abandoned the presidency of the Supreme Council policies

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Allawi gave up the presidency of the National Council due to Maliki's procrastination on the related legislation and implementation of the agreements from Erbil
2. Allawi stressed that this does not mean the List will withdraw from the political process
3. Barzani's agreement stipulated that the legislation of the Law of the National Council was to be completed one month after the formation of the government, but that didn't happen
4. The media office of the National Accord movement, led by Allawi, confirmed that he did give up the presidency and that the MPs from the list will remain in their places to exert the oversight role of government work
5. The remainder of the article provided historical reference on this

Hours after Allawi backs out, he met with Sadr
Allawi seeks to build positive relations with the Sadrists, the SCIRI, and the Kurds

The news of Allawi building relations with the Sadrists, SCIRI, and the Kurds tells me he's not out for good.  I wonder if he's just mustering up support for when Maliki's government fails?  Remember that Allawi said without his involvement in government, he gives Maliki about 6 months before his government crumbles.  One thing to note about Allawi is that his track record on dates is not too shabby.

3-2-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1847)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 3-MAR-2011. The results were as follows:
DETAILSNOTES
Number of banks17
Auction price selling dinar / US$1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$-----
Amount sold at auction price (US$)156,289,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)-----
Total offers for buying (US$)156,289,000
Total offers for selling (US$)-----
Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets