Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. Today was an extremely busy news day, and unfortunately, I could not get to all the news that I wanted to due to my schedule. So I apologize about that. I will say more about this another time. Let’s start with Allawi. News reported that he did abandon the post for the presidency of the Supreme Council. He faults Maliki for procrastination and not implementing the agreements. While he won’t run for the presidency seat, he made it clear that the List will still participate in the government. Then, the news reported that hours after his announcement, Allawi met with Sadr. He then met with the Supreme Islamic Council to discuss activating agreements reached among different political parties. He reported that “they” want to activate the national partnership to respond to the people’s demands and to take a unified position in Parliament and government to satisfy the people. Also, the Sadr front threatened to stop supporting Maliki’s government if he keeps up with his weak performance and failures. They hinted they will ally with Allawi to form a parliamentary majority in case the government fails to provide the people with what they need. Finally, the National Alliance said that the Federal Council would be a suitable alternative for Allawi in the absence of him getting the presidency for the National Council. He said the Liberals from the Sadrist movement agree that it would be appropriate for Allawi to chair the Federal Council, which parallels the Presidency of the Council of Representatives. It was noted that the Iraqi constitution stipulates that the federal legislative power shall consist of the House and the Federal Council, which will be aimed at link the House with the provincial councils, but that the Council did not yet enact a law
2. In other news, Talabani and Maliki met to discuss politics in Iraq and the Arab regions and the need to complete the Cabinet for the security ministers. They also discussed the demonstrations and the need for government to meet the needs of the protester’s demands
3. The minister of Human Rights visted Iraq for the purpose of reviewing Iraq’s progress in a number of different areas. The minister expressed the hope to support Iraq’s efforts in the area of the missing Kuwaitis, and he noted that this is important in ending the procedures of Chapter 7 sanctions on Iraq
4. A media spokesman for the ministry of electricity said that they asked China to give them a soft loan for the establishment of a major project to provide energy. In return, Iraq would grant China the right to a large project to establish maintenance centers, the transfer of national power grids to air and ground to organize the distribution of power stations, distribution centers, and establishment of sophisticated communications
5. On the rumor front, Med said that Shabibi has been busy eliminating debt behind the scenes. He also suggested that a mini coup is taking place where the Sadrists and the Islamic Council are teaming up with the List to move the power from Maliki to Allawi. Ray talked with Ali about the ration cards and was told that a one time arrangement has been made that allows citizens to get three times their normal monthly rations. He also said that Parliament is looking at candidates again and will make an annoucement next week on who is selected, and they will vote on the HCL next week
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3. February – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies (not sure if this will happen now that Allawi stepped out)
4. February 25 -- Large demonstration
6. March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011
7. March 5 – Maliki may hand over the 3 security ministry candidates and Parliament may vote on them
8. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
9. May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
10. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
11. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. Yesterday, I rattled off a few options with regard to what I thought might happen with Allawi’s decision to not take the presidency of the National Council. Option 4, which was for Allawi to return, was my choice. I just didn’t think he’d return that quickly! He’s clearly not interested in taking the presidency seat for the National Council. Instead, it appears that he’s “activating” agreements made with other political blocks in an attempt to either put serious pressure on Maliki to do what he’s supposed to do, or he’s working with the other blocs to gain control over Maliki through Parliament and majority. The combination of the List, Sadrits, and the Supreme Islamic Council will mean that Allawi will control the majority in Parliament. Also, Nujaifi said recently that Parliament is the supreme authority. When you look at all that has happened recently, it is clear that Allawi negotiated these arrangements a while ago. He knew he would need a plan C if his earnest attempts to get Maliki to comply by getting Barzani’s and the US’ assistance failed. Plan C then, was to gain agreement with the Sadrists and the SIC. Then, we see Nujaifi’s statement about Parliament being the supreme authority. Nice setup. Allawi steps out, “activates” prior agreements with the Sadrist and SIC, and they publicly begin to put pressure on Maliki. The Sadrists threaten to leave Maliki’s party if the doesn’t meet the demands of the people. They publicly announce they activated their agreement to form a uniform party. Then, we see recommendations from the Sadrists and the National Alliance about Allawi being suitable for the chair of the Federal Council, which has equal powers to the Presidency of the Council of Representatives. Maliki knows what this all could mean for him, and I have to believe he’s not feeling real comfortable about what he’s seeing.
2. In other matters, Iraq is moving forward on many fronts, which will help them rebuild and grow their country. There is news about banking reform, news of them obtaining loans from China to expand their ability to provide more electricity to the citizens, news of Maliki asking the MOF to find ways of eliminating the debt of their citizens, news of them eliminating their non-Paris club debt, news of them setting up an international trust fund that will be used to fund the reconstruction efforts, and the approval of the IMF on the accession of Iraq to the general system for the dissemination of data. These are all good and necessary steps required to create a stable and strong economy
3. This weekend will be an interesting weekend. Maliki is supposed to hand over the 3 security ministries either Saturday or Sunday, and Parliament should be able to vote on them. Maliki has said this many times. So, all we can do at this point is wait to see if he actually does it. Allawi is out of the way for now. However, as mentioned above, Allawi, the Sadrists, and the SIC are likely applying even more pressure for Maliki to complete the government now that they’ve joined together and basically voiced their displeasure with Maliki’s performance and failures. But, that’s all about this weekend. Tomorrow being Friday should be a slow news day, but we’ll see
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