Monday, January 17, 2011

1-17-11 Nighthk11 Chat 1

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the chat on 1DFA (membership required)

1. Government and budget will be passed before the Arab Summit to be held in Iraq
2. Recent visit by high ranking Arab leaders was a "look see" to either support Iraq hosting the summit, or find a different place
3. Issue of Dinar going global is now a global requirement
4. Budget is not needed for them to RV
5. Regardless of what you hear, the US will assist in the formation of the government, RV, and security for the summit
6. Deadline has passed (like all others) and now a sense of urgency is required to bring closure
7. Night is holding to this month for RV
8. They already committed to the release of the smaller denominations coins and cannot move forward without the smaller bills in banks and the price change of goods
9. Civil unrest is looming over the country because people were promised certain things concerning their money and they will not wait forever
10. Night's information comes from diplomatic means and he cannot divulge more about his source(s)
11. US debt will match GDP in March of this year--the RV must happen because we will be broke
12. This is the final push

1-17-11 Emailed rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
Information below was sent to me in email.

1. Person who worked for Congressman says was told by his source in DC that  pre-RV in Jordan and Kuwait is correct and the US will definitely be able to cash in soon
2. Information that Steve, Check and all the mod's info has been accurate
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********** OK PD Family i don't make many post and i am not trying to bring any false hope to anyone. For the record i just left the US House of Representative working for Congressman Charles Boustany Jr. 7th District of Louisiana with offices in Lake Charles,La. Lafayette, La and Washington DC. For the record my name is ******** ******* and what I have to say is that after speaking with my contacts in DC Steve and Check and all the MOD's info has been accurate thus far. I was told on Friday by my source that the Pre RV in Kuwait and Jordan is correct and the US will definitely be able to cash in Dinars really soon. He did have a date but he thought that it would not say because he said remember we are dealing with Iraq and things go back and forth. I will although post more as i get it.

1-17-11 Recap of the day's events/postings


Facts:
9.       More on the budget

Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
1.       Skype message
3.       Skype message
5.       Topguner chat
6.       Southbound chat on PD
7.   Emailed rumor
8.   Nighthk11 chat 
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Nothing for today!

Where Are We At?
1.       It’s been quite a slow day today!  Not too many interesting news articles, and oddly enough, not too many rumors.  I say the latter because tomorrow is supposed to be RV day!  I would think there would be no end to the rumors of a potential RV for tomorrow.  It remains to be seen.  Although a little slow today, we continue to see news of the government formation.  Parliament voted on the committees and the National Alliance provided nominees for the Ministry of the Interior.  There was an opinion piece out there today suggesting that completing the security positions may take more than 2 months!  Remember how there was supposed to be a vote on Maliki’s nominee for the security position this week?  I haven’t seen anything yet.  In other government formation news, there was a move to delay by 2 weeks the vote on the Strategic Policy.
2.       The more interesting news is related to the Kurdistan Alliance.  They did not seem too happy with anything today.  They rejected the budget (even though it is moving on for the second reading tomorrow), and they threaten to leave the government.  The Kurds are supposedly the King makers in this whole government formation.  We need to watch how this plays out.
3.       The budget is moving forward, and there was an article that mentioned they want to complete it in record time.  That sounds good, but let’s sees what happens over the next few days.  The second reading is tomorrow.   Hopefully the second reading will go through without any need to redo the budget.  We’ll keep a watchful eye on that.

What’s Left?
1. Reading of the budget for the second time.
2. Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (7)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Announcement of agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI

What’s It All Mean?
1.       I’ll start with the Kurds and them threatening to quit the government.  We’ve seen this behavior before as it relates to Iraqi politicians.  They clearly seem to be flexing their muscles to get someone to compromise, which is not something the Iraqi’s do very well.  I doubt that they will quit the government.  I’m sure that the US would not let it get to that point and would likely send Biden back over to mitigate the issues and bring it to an agreeable solution for both parties (one way or another).  That said, this is something I’ll keep my eye on because even Maliki commented that if they pull out, he cannot form a government.  Another thought that crossed my mind is that this may be old news.  Recall that news for us is at least a few days late.  Could this have been an issue that Biden ironed out while there last?  Maybe. 
2.       Ok next up….exchange rates.  I’ve not seen a thing about them today.  Delayed again?  Waiting for the dust to settle before displaying them (i.e., waiting for the IQD RI/RV)?  Hope we don’t have long to wait.
3.       With regards to the RI/RV, see my blog from today.  There are still those that stand by their assertion that the RI/RV did take place in Kuwait and Jordan.  Dinar Daddy believes that situation to be true, but he doesn’t believe in the idea that there is a partial rollout of the RI/RV.  He believes in the big bang approach, which is not what is happening.  Therefore, he doesn’t believe it has started.  I look at Dinar Daddy’s write up today with some reservation on his statements.  I’m not sure how anyone can say something did not happen and be 100% confident they are right.  Over the last few days, we’ve all seen people say they’ve heard or seen first-hand that people have exchanged.  Yet, Dinar Daddy says that no one did, and he was pretty vocal about that (if one can be vocal in writing!).  At this point, the only thing that I personally can be 100% confident in saying is that I haven’t cashed out! 

1-17-11 Southbound chat on PD

Highlights/Thoughts

The implication here is that the said Dinar dealer is possibly staffing up to handle volume.

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[southbound] a certain currency dealer is training new employees in the art of bank wire transfers
[southbound] reported saturday...just got it this afternoon...don't know when rv is but good news
[southbound] friend who claims imf source says tomorrow..i don't know
[southbound] brand new employees would need training in wiring i assume

1-17-11 Dinar Daddy's Take

Highlights/Thoughts

1. ME bank situation is true
2. Kuwait's rate was .36
3. No one cashed in
4. Kuwait and Jordan banks were not authorized to do this and were stopped by the US Treasury
5. Biden was sent to Iraq to mediate the security files
6. Nothing will happen until the government is announced, budget is passed, and the HCL (Hydro-Carbon Law) is passed
7. Dinar Daddy can no longer support Okie Oil Man
8. Any information that the RV will come in "piece meal" is, in his opinion, completely false and made up
9. Breitling and Dinar Daddy feel the RV could happen by March
10. If no RV by March, the next window is June when the DFI funds are no longer protected

Everyone is entitled to their opinions! One more thing....point 1 and point 8 somewhat contradict each other.

1-17-11 What could we be seeing?

Highlights/Thoughts

As I was watching a chat, I saw someone suggest something that I think could be a real possibility. If you believe in what is rumored to be happening in the ME, then consider this. Perhaps we are seeing an RI, and perhaps we will see the RI here first. Then, when the government is formed and they've completed the budget, they may RV at the higher rate we've been hearing ($5.27). So, RI now at $3.27 here. Then, at a later date, RV at the $5.27 rate.

Maybe huh? Much better than waiting for them to finish the government. What do I have to support this? There is this posting that says the removal of the zeros may proceed from the CBI. There are the rumors of the RI in Kuwait and Jordan. Then, there was the security related article today that suggested that the security positions would not be filled until March. Recall the smartcards were loaded with 250 IQD. I really don't think any of those who received that smartcard can live that long on such meager hand outs.

1-17-11 Skype message

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Deleting of zeros may proceed from the CBI
2. Government is preparing the legal framework
3. Government to develop the mechanisms for implementing and monitory

There are a couple things to bear in mine. First, we receive news days late. Sometimes up to 3 more days late. The second thing, and I think I mentioned this in an earlier posting, is that I believe Parliament needs to vote on such matters involving changes in currency. Perhaps they already voted on it. If so, and if they've already done the legwork on the mechanisms mentioned above, this could be why we're hearing about Kuwait and Jordan.
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[******] look at this----> The Iraqi Dinar deleting of zeros idea may proceed from the Iraqi Central Bank and the Government is preparing the legal framework and after the legislation of Parliament back the government again to develop the mechanisms for implementation and monitoring and all that would be the process runs smoothly and without obstacles, and is expected to increase the functions of government in the management of the economy and increase the responsibility of the Bank CBI in the design and management of monetary policy as well as to increase the burden of the Ministry of Finance to contain the imbalances and to support economic stability. But the real impact might not be clear in the first period for the replacement of currency, that is, here is the value of the Iraqi dinar at the beginning and during the replacement process, and the degree of disorder expected and how it changes the structure of prices, particularly prices and the prices of basic foodstuffs, and how stock prices will change, and the most serious is the prices as the prices of transport services for self-employment, wages and salaries and wages of health education.
 

1-17-11 Topguner chat

Highlights/Thoughts

1. What is rumored to be happening in Kuwait and Jordan is part of the plan per Top
2. The RV is a process--not a flip of the switch
3. Process started over a week ago, but stalled
4. Biden went there to get it back on track
5. Kuwait's rate was low because of debt repayment

I agree with point 5 above. I find it interesting that Kuwait's rate was rumored to be so low. However, the lower the rate is, the more Kuwait stands to make when the real rate comes out. Since Iraq owes them so much, it makes perfect sense to allow Kuwait a much lower rate.

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0:38 AM [Skunny] do we have a collective thought on this ME bank crap? did anyone cash in like first reported? do we think the banks acted alone and then were told to back off? what's the discussion on here been about?
10:39 AM [Skunny] fill me in dagnabit
10:39 AM [bwilson52] Top seems pretty confident that it was the real deal.
10:39 AM [Topguner] no skunny it is all part of the process.... them getting dinar into thier central banks without taking it out of CBI
10:39 AM [KingWm] Topguner Skunny gm
10:39 AM [Skunny] Topguner ahh so CBI?
10:39 AM [bwilson52] ah.......speak of the devil
10:39 AM [Topguner] been told that and belive it
10:40 AM [Skunny] Topguner that makes some sense
10:40 AM [bwilson52] that actually makes a lot of sense.
10:40 AM [JRCivic] morning Topguner
10:40 AM [Topguner] i have been told the RV is a process not a flip of the switch
10:41 AM [Skunny] Topguner agreed
10:41 AM [Topguner] it started over a week ago...got stalled... Biden got it back on track
10:41 AM [Topguner] 2 good sources have said it started... over a week ago...
10:41 AM [bwilson52] top. what about the rate issues. Were they getting the RV rate or something else agreed to by these various countries?
10:41 AM [Skunny] Topguner dont be making me like biden
10:41 AM [Skunny]
10:42 AM [Topguner] on kuwait it was also debt repayment...thats why we saw the .35
10:42 AM [Topguner] me either Skunny...in my opinion he was finally earning his pay!..lol

1-17-11 First hand experience rumor

Highlights/Thoughts

1. First posting regarding this person's call with someone who is directly connected to Forex and the IMF
2. Forex/IMF person could not divulge all information otherwise could face severe consequences
3. Person said he can say that this is now a very real and legitimate investment

The information below was emailed to me.
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OK guys, listen to this. I am NOT a guru, I am NOT a pumper. I have NEVER posted any info, intel, or rumors here, so please hear me out. I have been in this for years now, and all the buzz has stirred things up for sure. So, I asked my dad if he would call John, a friend of ours who is directly connected with Forex and the IMF. He is a currency securities advisor. So, then I said let's not make this a "my dad's friends buddy blah,blah,blah. So, I called him myself, and talked to him directly. I take full responsibility for this, this is the coversation straight from his mouth to my ear!

John-"Well hello young man, How's the game?

Clint-"Hey John! It's getting there, knocking the winter rust off. I'll be brief, I just want your insight on the dinar RV. Any ideas of rates or dates?"

John-(laughing) "Well buddy, that is a bigger question than you are probably aware of, anyway, I have been exposed to substantial info that I wish I could pass on, unfortunately I can not. I am bound by many entities, rules, and codes of conduct. For anyone in my position, or similar, to pass on info, or even educated scenarios based on privileged information could have severe consequences. Your dad, hell your whole family is just like my family, and if I could help buddy, I would, it is just not something I can do, I am sorry"

Clint-"I understand, I would never want to put you in a bad situation, I just was trying to get something halfway reliable. The rumors of RV, scam, new currency,LOP, I never even know if this is gonna happen, I am getting scammed, or what!"

John- (laughing) "Let me tell you a few things I can tell you. Currency, trading, unrecognized currency, politics,CBI, U.S., RV, all this stuff gets really complicated buddy, and not many people understand who plays what role. So many people get a fraction of fact, and make an equation of s*it. I am not sure if you know what the LOP refers to, but that is not even realistic at this point. I could sit here for hours just explaining to you the factors, players, chain of events, and all that stuff, and even then not sure it would make much sense to you. Let me tell you this. IQD speculation in 2004-2006 was a very very unrealistic shot in the dark. But it was NEVER a scam. The scam was the dealers, and the guys passing off the bullcrap dinars. As time has elapsed, the speculation has become much more possible. Now we have seen a chain of events that the IQD becoming of value is certain. How about this, you just hold your dinar, don't worry about losing money, don't worry about a scam, don't worry about things like LOP, and just relax. Have the piece of mind you made a good investment at a good time, and you wont have to wait til 2012. How's that little buddy?"

Clint-"Good enough, at least it's something solid, and makes me feel a little better. Thanks J-Bird! See ya at the Traveler's!"

John-"Good talking with ya buddy, maybe next time we talk, you'll be cashing in(laughing) Gotta run buddy, Bicycle!"

All I got, but it's from me to you, it's real, FROM ME, not several other connections. The IS REAL, RELIABLE, and LEGIT.
I hope this gives us a little piece of mind. Not as juicy as the other "intel", but heck it made me feel better, and I wanted to share it with you guys!
Have a fantastic day! I wish I had more!

1-17-11 Southbound chat with daytrader

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Confirmations regarding Kuwait and Jordan are real
2. Admin trying to cash in at a BoA in FL
3. Rate of $2.22, but will rise 

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8:06 AM [southbound] just had 2 calls...don't get bummed because we are still on for this week...confirmations are real regarding jordan and kuwait
8:08 AM [daytrader007] Kuwait had RV, then Jordan, now USA. Praise the Lord.
8:21 AM [daytrader007] moma I have been waiting 3 years and I have never been so happy about this investment. Tues looks good for RI.
8:24 AM [daytrader007] Who's ready to cash in on Tues or Wed?
8:25 AM [daytrader007] The Admin is trying to cash in at BOA
8:26 AM [daytrader007] Does anyone here live in FL because FL BOA has a rate.
8:27 AM [BondLady] do u have a link day trader
8:28 AM [daytrader007] No website. but some banks are open today. Like TD bank
8:28 AM [daytrader007] TD in the Northeast. They said they will be cashing in Dinars
8:29 AM [daytrader007] North East. NYC. I believe they will be ready by Tues or Wed.
8:30 AM [JBK] daytrader007 I thought you said some banks in fla were open today and were cashing in. Where. Tell All......
8:31 AM [daytrader007] She got a low rate of 2.22 to start. But it will go up in 3 days or so.
8:32 AM [daytrader007] I am not a pumper, lol
8:32 AM [daytrader007] I am just a happy investor like you all
8:34 AM [daytrader007] You all need to wait till Tues and Wed and walk into the banks in your area and check. The banks don't give out the info via phone so don't call. they are trying to tell people this is a scam because of big brother.
8:36 AM [daytrader007] You all need to relax and wait for Tues before you judge OKIE, Steve or Daytrader007
8:38 AM [daytrader007] Mike I am waiting for things to play out just like you. The signs are there.

1-17-11 National Alliance nominates four names for the interior portfolio, including Qanbar

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of the article

1. National Alliance nominates four names for the Ministry of the Interior
2. There is a candidate for the Iraq Ministry of Electricity who seems to be a viable candidate
3. Maliki made a reservation on a candidate from the List because they already have many nominees for the Ministry of Defense

1-17-11 Budget

Highlights/Thoughts

This was emailed to me. We already know the status of where the budget stands, but I thought the last sentence of this article was interesting. See it in red below.  Let's hope they really do move quickly and without any objections.  If they can get passed the 2nd reading with no problems, then the 3rd reading should be a rubber stamper.  Then, it goes to vote.  Finally, it will be published in the Gazette.

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Sunday 16/01/2011 14:38 Baghdad (news) .. Parliamentary sources said that the House ended the first reading of the federal budget during today's meeting. The source (of the Agency news) on Sunday: ended the House of Representatives during its session today the first reading of the federal budget for 2011, explaining that the second reading will be two days later. The source added: The process of approving the budget will be after completion of the holiday visit of forty. The head of the House of Representatives Osama Najafi had announced in a press conference today that "the Council received the budget after making amendments to it by the cabinet four days ago and he was serious by adopting in record time after discussed with the Minister concerned and look at the speculative accounts. / End / (4. T. M)

http://translate.goo...n&u=ikhnews.com

1-17-11 Kurdish Alliance rejects the budget as presented by the government

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article.

1. The Kurds rejected the budget as presented by the government
2. Rejected on the basis that the government is not committed to the proposals submitted by the Finance Committee of Parliament on the user desire to dominate the provincial councils

Click here for the article where it says there are 14 laws that harm the interest of the Kurdistan region

Base on the last two postings, it appears the Kurds are not happy with things right now. Recall that Frank26 has always said that the Kurds are in control. We have to keep an eye out on what happens with these last two postings. Having the Kurds quit the government would not be a good thing.

1-17-11 Mass change: the Kurdistan Alliance has threatened to quit the government in the event gave us a ministerial portfolio

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of the posting to get to the details of the article

1. The Kurdistan Alliance has threatened to quit the government
2. Maliki said he was under heavy pressure from Barzani, who recently visited Iraq, to not grant a ministrial post for the MDC
3. If Maliki gave the ministrial post to the Kurds, they would withdraw from the government and the government could not be formed

1-17-11 Kuwait Amir grants KD 1,000 for every citizen on nat''l celebrations occasion

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. 1,000 KD to be paid to every Kuwaiti citizen including those born until 2/1
2. Food ration to be offered for free between 2/1/2011 and 3/31/2012

This is the news Blaino spoke about yesterday on the GET call. He suggested this was part of a deal that was made between Iraq and Kuwait. Blaino was suggesting that Iraq is paying for this.

1-17-11 House of Representatives Voted Overwhelmingly to Form All Parliamentary Committees

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Voted to form the parliamentary standing committees of the 26th Commission and members of the Chairmen and rapporteurs.
2. There were some objections to committees and members

This is interesting because I just read another article suggesting they did not vote in this meeting.

1-17-11 Auctions for Monday

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

 

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1815)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 17-JAN-2011. The results were as follows:
DETAILSNOTES
Number of banks21
Auction price selling dinar / US$1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$-----
Amount sold at auction price (US$)205,950,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)-----
Total offers for buying (US$)205,950,000
Total offers for selling (US$)-----
Exchange rates
Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets

1-17-11 National Alliance: Strategic policy vote delayed again; 2 weeks needed for completion of study

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of the article

1. MP for the National Alliance said that the Strategic Policy vote will be postponed 2 weeks
2. The reason for the delay is a need for a full study

This impacts Allawi's position since he is head of the Strategic Policy Council.

1-17-11 Opinion of Iraqi List member: Appointing security ministers may require more time; Possibly after Arab Summit

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of the article

1. MP (member of Parliament) said that it may take more than 2 months to complete the security positions! What?!
2. Minister of defense, interior, and national security positions will be resolved after the Arab Summit to be held in Baghdad in March
3. Denied that Biden did anything to help resolve the security positions. Said this is an internal issue.

Once again, if you believe the government must be fully formed, then you're looking at an RI/RV on or after March.