2-18-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     Parliament will meet with heads of blocs and the Finance Committee to resolve the budget law

2.     President of the advisers in the Council of Ministers and Deputy U.S. Treasury discuss ways to develop the banking sector and economic in Iraq

3.     Iraqi authorities seek to calm public anger; First thousand kilowatts of electricity free to Iraqis

4.     Agreement to support the ration card trillion dinars and the budget vote Sunday

5.     Agreement on the re-opening of the Kuwaiti Consulate in Basra

6.     Parliamentary: Sunday to approve the budget .. and the establishment of the Fund's money for future generations

7.     Arab League summit confirms Arab Summit will convene as planned on March 29th; Cancellation would require a collective effort

8.     Iraq plans to join World Trade Organization

9.     Allawi announces the arrival at a crossroads with Maliki

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Skype chat - rumor regarding Steve I's info

2.     Confirmation from Nighthk11 on Steve I's info

3.     Topguner bank rumor

4.     Skype chat PD Rumor from Butch B: update

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     None

Where Are We At?

1.    Not much news today, but it’s a Friday.  In government news, Allawi said he is at a crossroads with Maliki regarding his Ministry of Defense position.  A source in the List said that they failed to settle on the Ministry of Defense and are at crossroads on the non-implementation of related agreements.

2.    Regarding the budget, Nujaifi met with the heads of the political blocs and the Finance Committee to resolve the financial budget, and he said the budget will go to vote this Sunday.  The members of Parliament present in the meeting all agreed on the need to approve the budget on Sunday.  They also agreed to support the ration card budget of 1 trillion dinar, which they already voted on today. 

3.    In other news, a number of Iraqi government experts and advisers and the Deputy US Treasury Department engaged in a joint technical cooperation in the field of economics, money, and energy.  The head of the advisers to the Iraqi government said they are focused on the financial and banking sector as well as strengthening the role of the private banks, which they said are highly necessary in the current stage and the next stages.  He also said the government is moving forward in the process of transition towards a market economy.

4.    Concerning the Arab summit, Libya mentioned that the summit would be postponed, but Iraq news today reported that Secretary-General of the League of Arab States said it did not receive any formal request to change the date of the summit.  It is still scheduled for 3/29-3/30

5.    Iraqi politicians were reported to be nervous of the anti-government protest happening across the Middle-East.  A Middle East analyst from HIS said that the steps taken by the GOI recently reveals they are nervous.  He also said that Maliki is paranoid about the situation because he realizes he won the PM spot for a second term primarily through cunningness, stubbornness, and with the help of Tehran

6.    The GOI affirmed today that it is working to join the WTO.  They stressed the necessity of building up Iraq’s economy by encouraging investment, organizing trade, setting the general budget and ratifying the oil and gas law

7.    On the rumor front, the banking news is back.  There were two confirmations of Steve I’s information regarding the pre-announcement of the RV in Iraq.  One of the confirmations came from Night, who said he was informed of the same.  Topguner reported that a friend in his group went to a Wells Fargo where the bank manager reported they just received a De La Rue machine and confirmed they increased their reserves by a factor of 3 to 4 times their normal amount.  He said they were told a big change was coming, but he didn’t know when.  Butch provided an update and essentially targeted the RV for this Sunday, but said the cash in would come shortly after Sunday.  He said the bank rate will be 5+ and the CBI rate will be 6+.

What’s left?

1.    Vote on the budget

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.     February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)

2.     February 20 – Vote on the budget

3.     February (but sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 

4.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

5.     February 25  -- Large demonstration online

6.     March 29-30 – Arab Summit

7.     May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies

8.     May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

9.     June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.     Beginning with the GCC meetings, I’ve seen nothing yet that says Iraq attended any GCC meetings.  Maybe this is because news is a few days late for us?  Not sure, but one thing is certain, they haven’t yet announced an RV to the world.  It was rumored that Iraq would surely want to RV prior to the GCC meeting.  Perhaps they did RV and haven’t announced it yet?  Also, perhaps they’ve met with the GCC and we just haven’t heard the news yet?  I guess we’ll just have to wait another day or two to see if any news of the GCC meeting surfaces

2.     Regarding the government formation and today’s news of Allawi complaining about being in a crossroads with Maliki over the Defense Ministry and the related agreements, you would think those two don’t read the news, talk to anyone, or venture out of the comforts of their homes.  If they did any of those things, I don’t think they’d be putting out news right now that might incite even more violence from the protestors—especially since we are nearing the 2/25 date.  On 2/25, it is being reported that there will be a huge mass of protestors (up to a million is what I’ve heard).  That’s a lot of people any way you look at it.  I sure wouldn’t want to give them anything to be upset about right now.  I certainly wouldn’t want them to think they’re a long way off from seeing a government formed and a budget passed.  Yet, we see today’s news saying that Maliki and Allawi still can’t work together.  Amazing! 

3.     On a brighter note, it does appear that the budget will be approved on Sunday.  Given yesterday’s news, it wasn’t as clear.  But today’s news made it very clear the budget will be voted on this Sunday.  The next thing that is needed is a full government, if it doesn’t come on Saturday when Maliki may hand over the names of the 3 security ministries.

4.     The other good news of the day is related to Iraq and Kuwait’s improving relationship.  The re-opening of embassies is a pretty big deal.  This to me is just another confirmation they have reached agreement on the outstanding issues.  Also, the news of Iraq affirming it plans to join the WTO is good news.  Remember, Iraq must close the gap between their currency and the USD in order to become a full member of the WTO.  The news about the Deputy US Treasury meetings is also good stuff.  Why would a country that has no plans of improving their economic situation be engaged in efforts to strengthen their financial and economic sectors?  Iraq has big plans to make a LOT of money in various non-oil sectors.  They cannot progress very far with a currency that isn’t globally traded and has very little value.  But not to worry!  Today’s article said the government is moving forward in the process of transitioning towards a market economy that will include an agricultural and private sector.    Market economy…..another good reason to revalue and have a global currency.  Still not convinced?  Why would any company (private sector) want to invest in Iraq when their currency isn’t worth much and isn’t globally accepted?  They won’t, but they are today.  Why would they do this?  They know what is about to happen.

2-18-11 Skype chat PD Rumor from Butch B: update

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

1. Butch stated last week that the rate was set Wednesday (2 Wed ago)
2. He said we should see the RV within 72 hrs, if not, it would be pushed back by 1 week
3. That 72 hr window closed this past Sunday night
4. This moves the window to 2/20
5. He expects we should hear definitive news on Sunday
6. Cash in should be shortly after Sunday
7. Rate was stated to be 5+ on the bank side and 6+ on the CBI side
8. Intel comes from a bank source through his brother, who is retired military

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[BUTCH B] I stated last week , that the rate was set wensday , (which would be two wensdays ago , now) , and that we should see an RV within 72hrs , If not , it would be pushed back by 1wk...that 72hr window closed this past sunday night ! So , that moved the window to this next sunday ...(2/20/11) !Hows that for a date...we should hear some diffinative news by sunday....Not to mention , all of the ppl on PD , who are also saying , by sunday!!! We should see something , in CONCRETE , for the RV , on sunday (2/20/11) cash-in shortly after...RATE was stated to be 5+ on the bank side , and , 6+ on the CBI side !!!!
[4:30:39 PM] [BUTCH B] Intel comes from BANK source ...Via my Brother , who is retired military ..

2-18-11 Allawi announces the arrival at a crossroads with Maliki

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Allawi said he is at a crossroads with Maliki
2. A source in the List said they failed to settle on the Ministry of Defense, and are at crossroads on the non-implementation of agreements on this subject
3. He called on Maliki to decisively fill the security ministries, including the Defense Ministry and based on the political agreements
4. A high MP House member demanded a re-writing of the Iraqi Constitution because there are a lot of gaps in the paragraphs according to the plan

Sounds like Maliki isn't going along with the Barzani initiatives where Allawi's Ministry of Defense position is concerned. Tomorrow's Parliament meeting should be interesting.

2-18-11 Iraq plans to join World Trade Organization

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The GOI affirmed that it is working to join the WTO and is planning to protect Iraqi funds outside the country
2. The GOI stressed the necessity of building up Iraq's economy by encouraging investments, organizing trade, setting the general budget and ratifying the oil and gas law

2-18-11 Arab League summit confirms Arab Summit will convene as planned on March 29th; Cancellation would require a collective effort

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on

1. The League of Arab States, on Friday, denied that the Arab summit would be put on hold due to the turmoil in the Arab world as declared by Libya
2. The Secretary-General of the League of Arab States said it has not received any formal request to change the date of the summit
3. He said that such a decision should be taken collectively by all Member States
4. Libya's news agency reported that the presidency decided to postpone the Arab summit
5. The remainder of the article provides historical reference on the topic of the summit and Middle East events

Another article stating the Arab Summit is a necessity and denied reports of postponement

2-18-11 Topguner bank rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. A person in Top's group went to a Wells Fargo branch
2. The branch manager told him they just received a machine that is just for counting foreign currency, the De La Rue machine
3. He also admitted that the banks in the region have had a LOT of cash delivered too
4. 3 to 4 times the amount of cash is what he said they have
5. The branch manager said they were told a big change is coming, but wasn't told when
6. Wells Fargo has told many they will never exchange Dinar

2-18-11 Parliamentary: Sunday to approve the budget .. and the establishment of the Fund's money for future generations

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A member of the Finance Committee from the Kurdish bloc said that they will be voting on the budget on Sunday
2. He said that all those present in the meeting stressed the need to approve the budget because they will initiate appointments and projects of interest to citizens and the country
3. The Finance Committee will decide the priorities, including whether to pass a national petrodollar, the price of oil per barrel to be used, allocation of funds for the ration card, social welfare, amounts for students in schools and universities, regional development, agriculture, services, health, and electricity
4. A member of the Finance Committee also said there is a request to block the Liberal of the Sadrist movement and the List regarding the allocation of 15% of state revenues to be disbursed to citizens as well as setting aside 25% of the budget in a special fund on behalf of the citizens of future generations, which they would not receive but would be invested and saved for them
5. She said the Finance Committee will continue their work to finalize the budget

2-18-11 Confirmation from Nighthk11 on Steve I's info

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

1. This is part of a chat from Night
2. Night confirms he received the same information regarding the pre-RV announcement, confirming Steve I's information

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12:03 PM [Nighthk11] with that being said where are we now?- very close to disclosure- Now there was a celebration in baghdad- there was an announcement to those gathered- it was about the impending rv and what could be expected with a rate announced- it was not the rv- just an announcement of what is to come and the rate
12:04 PM [Nighthk11] this is what was related to me- the figures quoted was over $3.00- so part of the rumor pans out

2-18-11 Agreement on the re-opening of the Kuwaiti Consulate in Basra

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliki's meeting with Kuwait produced positive results, especially as it is related to the details of the outstanding issues between the two countries
2. The Deputy Prime Minister from Kuwait said this is the first time they spoke in details and they have procedures for each subject. He said they have an agenda for the Joint Committee meeting to be held in March
3. He also said there is agreement between the two countries to reopen the Kuwaiti Consulate in Basra, and said their Consul Kuwait is waiting for re-delivery of the consulate building and property
4. Zebari said the talks included discussions on Iraq's right to use the sea lanes in accordance with International legitimacy resolutions and the proposals from Kuwait to help in this area
5. He also said both sides discussed all issues relating to Iraq's obligations regarding resolution 833 of the Security Council (border issue, missing Kuwaitis, property, compensation, and debt)

2-18-11 Agreement to support the ration card trillion dinars and the budget vote Sunday

<b>Highlights/Thoughts</b>
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A parliament source said the budget will be voted on during the meeting on Sunday, and he said the conferees agreed to support the ration card budget of 1 tril dinar
2. He said they discussed paragraphs 13 of the federal budget and noted there was a vote at the meeting to support the 1 tril dinar amount for the ration card
3. He said they also agreed to support the social protection system, the development of the regions, the service sector, agriculture, support for students, and allocating a portion of imports of pilgrims to the provinces
4. The Sadrists announced they will not vote on the budget if it is absent of allocating 15% to the Iraqi people
5. Much of the document provided historical reference of the events related to the budget as well as budget details

2-18-11 Skype chat - rumor regarding Steve I's info

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

1. This basically is someone's confirmation of Steve I's posting regarding what took place in Iraq (referring to the pre-announcement, the bleachers, etc.)
2. This person's source is not connected to Steve I

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[*****] This email was forwarded to me from my Father in law this morning. I wanted to share because it is just more conformation on what Steve has told us. I like it... go RV This Is From KME who is Very level headed and Trustworthy IMO:

The only thing new I can tell you is that EVERYTHING Steve said the other night has been confirmed by another source, from a different part of the world. There is NO DOUBT in my mind that the INTENTION TO RV has been announced in Baghdad, and was done at the "ceremony." What you need to keep in mind is that the RV itself HAS NOT BEEN ANNOUNCED in Baghdad, but the INTENT TO DO SO has been announced. In other words, NO ONE is cashing out in any part of the world right now. But the fact that we will be has been put out. Not to the public, but to the "high ups." This was announced to major world bankers and people who are handling LARGE projects for Iraq. The people that were at this meeting were INVITED. No one just showed up, and stumbled upon this ceremony. So, to put my "Common Sense Commando" point of view on things, I would say that we should be watching VERY closely in the near future (as in the next week or so.) Iraq CAN NOT wait very long before triggering this, because they know it will slip out to the rest of the world FAST!! I have received confirmed info on this. It's not that I CAN'T tell you who confirmed this, but that I WON'T. I didn't WANT to put that out there, but we all need that confirmation from time to time. I feel like you guys trust me, as I would NEVER lie about this. Just know that it HAS BEEN CONFIRMED by someone that is NOT connected to Steve. One positive confirmation from Steve is enough for me, but when you add another person that was in the crowd that day, it's UNSTOPPABLE. I have nothing to add to what you've already heard from Steve, so there isn't really a need to ask for more details. The INTENT has been announced, and we're now waiting on the firing pin to hit the rim of the RV bullet. That's really the only reason I said anything. Something this big could use as many confirmations as we can get. I hope everyone realizes how HUGE the info that Steve passed along, and the person that told me confirmed. No, the RV itself hasn't been announced (yet,) but this is the first time the INTENT TO RV has actually been announced to a group of bankers, contractors, and investors. I hope you all can grasp the severity of the activities at the ceremony. "The cat is out of the bag," as far as Iraq is concerned. They know they must move swiftly to wrap this all up. By the time the CONFIRMATION reached me, it was "secondhand" info. For what it's worth, the person who told me (firsthand info to him) is a person I would trust with all of my money. Very trustworthy

[*****] If you want to know what I think... I think the RV is done, but they can't ANNOUNCE until it's EFFECTIVE. It won't be EFFECTIVE until the budget is PUT INTO LAW. I believe it will be a "two birds with one stone" situation. I do not believe they will miss any window to ANNOUNCE it. It is happening soon, whether we believe it or not. Don't lose faith, we're almost there. I've never said that with so much confidence. Yes, it will be a very close announcement. The "2 birds" metaphor was referring to a simultaneous release. The GOI may be announced the same day, but not as a "hand-in-hand" relationship like the RV and Budget will have.

2-18-11 Iraqi authorities seek to calm public anger; First thousand kilowatts of electricity free to Iraqis

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Iraqi politicians are nervous of anti-government protest across the Middle East
2. Demonstrations against the lack of food, electricity and water have increased in recent weeks
3. Some of the protesters are expressing their anger directly at Maliki's new government
4. A Middle East analyst from IHS said it is certain that the steps taken by the GOI reveals they are nervous
5. They are not calling on the federal government to step down. Instead, they are demanding resignations of local officials as well as improvements in food rations and electricity
6. Iraq's power grid only supplies power for a few hours a day
7. The Electricity Ministry said that the Iraqis will get the first thousand kilowatts of electricity every month for free
8. The Middle East analyst also said that Maliki is paranoid about the new troubles and is making him feel insecure. He said Maliki realizes he won a second term as the PM primarily through cunningness, stubbornness, and with the help of Tehran
9. The remainder of the article is historical reference

2-18-11 President of the advisers in the Council of Ministers and Deputy U.S. Treasury discuss ways to develop the banking sector and economic in Iraq

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A number of Iraqi government experts and advisors and the Deputy US Treasury Department are engaged in a joint technical cooperation in the field of economics, money and energy
2. The head of the advisers to the Iraqi government said they are focused on the financial and banking sector as well as strengthening the role of private banks which are highly necessary in the current stage and the next stages, which will see more of the construction projects
3. He said the priorities of the government's work is directed towards the provisions of basic services to citizens and the development of the Iraqi economy in terms of diversifying its sources of non-oil revenue, particularly through the promotion of foreign investment and the Arab and local community
4. He said the government is moving forward in the process of transition towards a market economy that will include an agricultural and private sector, and pointed to the implementation of programs directed towards the reform of public companies that are state owned
5. The US Deputy Secretary gave his thanks and appreciation to the advisory board and expressed his authorities in the banking and specialized financial sector in the US will provide expertise to support and assist Iraq's banking and financial sector
6. The US will provide training programs, capacity development, give advice in addition to sending experts and specialist to Iraq when necessary

This is really good stuff!

2-18-11 Parliament will meet with heads of blocs and the Finance Committee to resolve the budget law

<b>Highlights/Thoughts</b>
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on TCN

1. A parliamentary source said today that Nujaifi met with the heads of the political blocs and the Finance Committee to resolve the financial budget bill
2. He stressed that the budget will go to vote in Parliament during Sunday's meeting

Let's keep a watchful eye on what Maliki does with the 3 security minister positions.  I would hope that he gives the names in Saturday's session.  If he does, then they could potentially have a full government by tomorrow.  They can then vote and ratify the budget on Sunday.  If Maliki doesn't hand over the names of the 3 security ministries, or if they can't come to agreement in Saturday's meeting, we might see the vote on the budget slip out to the first part of next week.