2-7-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     CBI auction results

2.     Spokesman: Kurds secured Iraqi intelligence institution

3.     Source: Maliki's desire to remain al-Obeidi as defense minister reason to delay the nomination of candidates for security ministries

4.     Barzani and Talabani talk over Goran statement today

5.     The Iraqi government recognizes the current year budget after an increase of three billion dollars

6.     Parliament voted unanimously to provide the ration card items

7.     Nujaifi announce its support for the reduction of the salaries of the three presidencies and the salaries of ministers and deputies

8.     budget: Iraqi Parliament further postpones second reading

9.     Iraq: Large Movements of Oil in the South Will Improve Economy;

10.  Maliki's meeting with heads of parliamentary blocs led to important results

11.  Ashour: meet Maliki, Allawi-will prove whether anticipated national partnership remain or collapsed

12.  Council given 48 hours to amend draft budget

13.  Talabani Proposed the Appointment of a Turkmen Deputy IV

14.  Sharif Salim: Blocks Meet Soon to Resolve the Crisis Census

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Kaperoni’s Thoughts – February RV?

2.     Night chat from yesterday

3.     Med chat

4.      

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     MTT rumor

2.     Skype chat – PD rumor

Where Are We At?

1.     Today was a busy news day.  There were so many articles that I couldn’t get to all of them.  But I get the general idea of where things are going.  For the most part, news fell into 3 categories: 1) Budget; 2) GOI trying to address concerns of protestors; 3) Familiar news about them trying to resolve issues over government formation.  The Kurds were able to secure the Intelligence position.  That was probably the only forward movement I saw today.  The other news is related to Allawi and Maliki meeting soon to resolve their differences.  We also saw news of why there have been delays related to the security positions.  It was said that the reasons for the delays is because Maliki wants his people in and has been rejecting candidates so that he can get his preferred candidates in.  In other Maliki news, his meetings with the leaders of political blocs was said to be productive.  Also, it was said that the meetings between him and Allawi would bring an end to the obstacles preventing finalization of the National Council of the Supreme policies. 

2.     In budget news, Parliament delayed the second reading of the budget until 2/13.  There was another article saying that the budget would be returned to the ministerial council on Thursday.  They council would then have 48 hours to make amendments.  It is then expected to go to Parliament on Sunday.  Other news on the budget divulged the reasons for the delays.  The article said that the reasons for the delay is because Maliki didn’t provide his adjustments.

3.     There were quite a few articles about the government’s knee jerk reactions to the protestors’ demands.  I didn’t get to summarize many of these articles, but suffice it to say that there were plenty of them today.  In short, it appears that the GOI is trying to appease the people by trying to address their concerns.  We saw some of this when Maliki took a 50% pay cut.  Today saw a few articles about the ration card.  The first was related to Parliament agreeing to increase the financial allocations for the ration card, and wanting to investigate why the program hasn’t worked well in the past decade.  A study will be presented tomorrow.  Another article reported that the Ministry of the Interior will be returning 255 billion to the treasury due to over 1000 administrative corruption, and over 300 cases of financial corruption! 

4.     There was news about the census today.  The MP said the reason for the delay in the census is because there is no political consensus on when it should be done.

5.     With regards to rumors, Kaperoni is optimistic about an RV by end of month.  He’s looking for the GOI to be approved by Parliament before seeing the RV.  In terms of the GOI formation, he feels things are moving forward.  Med was saying the budget wasn’t the important thing.  Instead, the IMF and World Bank loans were the important items.  He feels the delays in the budget will feed the fire of protestors since the GOI can’t do anything to address their concerns without an approved budget.  Night has been consistent on the budget.  He’s been saying it isn’t required for the RV.  Night was told everything was done as of last Thursday.  We are only waiting for the RV.  Multiple sources have told him to expect the RV this week.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the second time (scheduled for Sunday)

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.     Today was all about getting news out to the Iraqi’s about the things the government “wants to do for the citizens”.  Maliki opened the floodgates when he made it public that he wanted to return half his salary to the treasury.  Now, the rest of the government is trying to follow his lead to quiet the protestors.  Although, I did briefly scan one article where it was said some in the National Alliance disagreed to reducing their salaries by half.  Meanwhile, the protesting continues.  Given the recent actions (whether they are genuine or not), the GOI’s actions give the appearance of a sense of urgency related to addressing the citizen’s concerns (i.e., lack of services, complaints about the ration cards, food, etc.).  I wonder if this was just an opportunity to divert attention away from what really matters….completing the government and the budget?  While there is forward movement on government formation, I’m not seeing the same sense of urgency as I see on matters of the citizen’s concerns.

2.     Just when I thought we were getting close to finishing the budget, it goes backwards a step!  Personally, I don’t think we’ll see the budget finish until the government is finished.  I’m not saying that because we know that they need a full government to ratify the budget.  Instead, I say that because they will constantly adjust the budget if they know they have the time, and they know they have the time because the government isn’t yet fully formed.  I’m confident the pace of completing the budget will quicken if the pace of forming the government speeds up. 

3.     I haven’t heard news of the census in a while.  It’s interesting to see it pop up now.  It seems like all things relevant and necessary are coming together towards the finish line to be finished up.  The census is tied to the HCL.  It has been rumored that the HCL would need to be passed prior to the RV.  But, they may need to complete the census prior to passing the HCL.  If this is truly the case, then I hope they get agreement on the timing of the census and get it done.

4.     I love the rumors that say we should see the RV this week.  We all want the RV done, and done yester-year!  Given that there are still reported outstanding issues between Allawi and Maliki on a number of issues, we still do not have an announced government, and neither of these to items appear to be close to being finished this week according to news, it’s hard to line up behind the thought of an RV this week.  On the other hand, if everything is done and we’re just reading made up news, then I wish they’d hurry up and just RV!   Do they not know how much time goes into reading all these articles?!

2-7-11 Med chat

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. The Council of Ministers approved the budget yesterday--not Parliament since they did not convene
2. The budget wasn't important. The fact that the IMF and WB loans were approved
3. The RV will happen on their time
4. It is impossible to have a free market economy without a foreign exchange currency
5. WB is already in Iraq discussing the transition for Iraq from an institutional market economy to a free market
6. Reason for delay in budget is because of Maliki and something he did not do
7. Delaying the budget will feed the fire of protesters
8. Without the budget being passed, they cannot address the issues of the protesters
9. News of yesterday hasn't change. They still have been approved to borrow and the WB is there starting to make changes

2-7-11 Sharif Salim: Blocks Meet Soon to Resolve the Crisis Census

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. An MP from the Kurdistan Alliance said there will be meetings between representatives of the political blocs to resolve the census crisis
2. He said there are some authorities that justify the delay of the census and base the cause of the delay on technical problems
3. He said the truth is the lack of political consensus between the political blocs to hold a census now
4. The MP said the census is important to so that Iraq can obtain the correct information about the population and housing in Iraq
5. He said they need to conduct the census as soon as possible and without exception

2-7-11 Talabani Proposed the Appointment of a Turkmen Deputy IV

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Talabani called for changing the law of his deputies and increased the number from 3 to 4
2. He put forth a bill amending the law governing the issue of the VP to the Iraqi Council of Representatives in order to add the 4th VP of the Republic
3. The 4th VP position is for the Turkmen

2-7-11 MTT rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

1. MTT says big screen TVs and bleacher seats are being set up all over Baghdad
2. Security at Baghdad airport is high
3. Foreign dignitaries from all over the world are arriving
4. They do believe Biden is there
5. Believe RV is the reason for all of the above

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CONFIRMED from 3 different dinar sites: update announcement just now from MTT: big screen TV's and bleacher seating are being set-up all over Baghdad--security at Baghdad airport is high, foreign digitaries from all over the world are arriving, they DO believe Joe Biden is there They are saying that only one event would garner this type of attention--the RV

2-7-11 Council given 48 hours to amend draft budget

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. The budget will be sent back to government for revisions; the Kurd's comments will be taken into account
2. The article explained the history of what has transpired with the budget and the issues between the parties
3. It was agreed that the draft budget will be returned to the ministerial council on Thursday, and the council will have 48 hours to make the necessary amendments and to resubmit to Parliament

2-7-11 Skype chat - PD rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE IF YOU DO NOT LIKE READING RUMORS

1. Yesterday's last major obstacle was a big one, but is now gone
2. Latest news is we should see it in the next 24 hours
3. Just received phone call from IMF source, possibility of tomorrow for RV looks even better

**************************************************************************
[*******] OK, yesterday I heard that the last major impediment was gone (a big one). We should see it by Tues. I really thought we'd see it this morning. I will get on the phone today and see what else I can find out
[********] latest news is that we should see it in the next 24 hrs. I am confused as to why we didn't see it by this morning, but I was given a window of Mon. - Tues.
[*******] Just got another phone call - Looks even better that we will see an RV by tomorrow!!!!!!! Per IMF source!!!!

2-7-11 Nighthk11 chat from yesterday

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Budget is not needed for RV
2. Only portion of the budget related to the RV is the funding for the new lower denominations that bear the Kurd language
3. In regards to the HCL or Article 140, is because of the census, which distributes funds to the provinces based on density of population
4. Maliki signed the Barzani agreements a month ago, but then attempted to change the conditions, which caused the delay
5. The government, budget, and rV were all done last Thursday
6. The government is done but not yet announced
7. Night was informed Saturday that the dignitaries have not all arrived (this was his response as to why there is a delay)
8. Iraq has never met a deadline or been on time
9. Night is trying to confirm Biden is there and that the Iraqis have been informed they can begin trading their large bills for smaller denominations
10. It is vitally critical that Iraq be seen as a stable government
11. Night says multiple sources are saying this week for RV
12. With the budget being done, they can pay De La Rue for the lower denoms to be delivered
13. Maliki and the Court have been placed in check--for now
14. They will be dealt with later
15. The Council will be in place this month with Allaw as the head and all the power intact. Maliki has already been informed of this

2-7-11 Ashour: meet Maliki, Allawi-will prove whether anticipated national partnership remain or collapsed

<b>Highlights/Thoughts</b>
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1. An adviser to the List said the upcoming meeting between Allawi and Maliki will prove whether there will be national partnership on the Erbil agreements, or whether the agreements have collapsed
2. He said the formation of the National Council of senior policy will be one of the most important themes of the meeting, and the work will begin after a vote in Parliament
3. The adviser said there are new proposals to resolve some differences on the Council

2-7-11 Kaperoni’s Thoughts – February RV?

Highlights/Thoughts
CATEGORIZED AS RUMOR. PLEASE IGNORE IF YOU DO NOT LIKE READING RUMORS

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1. Appears GOI is moving forward
2. Kap is waiting for the GOI is approved by Parliament, but there appears to be signs this is getting done in short order
3. Budget is ready to go back to Parliament for a vote. May see this complete by Thursday of next week
4. Maliki and Allawi are meeting and with any luck Allawi may get his Strategic Council by end of next week
5. Demonstrations by Iraqis can only help speed up the process as long as they don't get out of hand
6. Contracts with other countries and firms are expiring. Iraqi's are displeased.
7. Shabibi began removing the 3 zeros last summer with 70% or so being taken out of circulation
8. The remaining are being captured in banks throughout Iraq
9. Cannot reverse the process
10. The process is contributing to unrest among the Iraqis
11. Kap is optimistic the RV may happen by end of this month

2-7-11 OS: Maliki's meeting with heads of parliamentary blocs led to important results

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Maliki's meeting held last night between leaders of political blocs produced positive results
2. Sarraj said that it is likely we will see the approval of all agreements that were signed within the Barzani agreements within the next few days
3. Observers expect that the upcoming meetings between Allawi and Maliki will bring solutions to many of the outstanding issues in completing the line up, and will bring agreement to end the obstacles to the formulation of the Law of the National Council of the Supreme policies

2-7-11 Iraq: Large Movements of Oil in the South Will Improve Economy;

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. An MP for the coalition of state of law said there is a movement in the south to export the largest possible quantity of oil to improve the Iraqi economy
2. He said the operation of oil is an essential part and has begun to move on track
3. He also pointed out that the oil and gas law (HCL) will be launched at this session with no room to be postponed
4. He said more dialogue is needed and that there is no relationship between the approval of the HCL and the export of oil in the province
5. The law must be resolved

This explains why we saw the oil being exported out of the Kurdistan region even though the HCL wasn't yet approved.

2-7-11 budget: Iraqi Parliament further postpones second reading

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. An MP from the National Coalition said that Parliament decided to postpone the 2nd reading of the 2011 budget


This article sites the reason for the delay

1. Delayed due to non-arrival of Maliki's budget adjustments
2. Next reading scheduled on 2/13

2-7-11 Nujaifi announce its support for the reduction of the salaries of the three presidencies and the salaries of ministers and deputies

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Nujaifi supports the reduction of salaries of the 3 presidencies, ministries, and deputies as well as their aligning their grades with the current stage and in support of the national economy
2. He said legislation is required for the intervention of the Council of Ministers, and they need to submit a bill to reduce the salaries for Parliament's approval
3. He mentioned the salary of deputies and ministers should b equivalent to ten million dinars by law

2-7-11 Parliament voted unanimously to provide the ration card items

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. An MP from the List said the House unanimously approved the provision of the ration card items fully for the citizens
2. Parliament decided to form committees to investigate into the past decades and foot dragging in providing food for the citizens
3. They will increase financial allocations for the ration card according to a study provided by the Ministry of Commerce
4. The study will be presented to parliament on Tuesday

2-7-11 The Iraqi government recognizes the current year budget after an increase of three billion dollars

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. The cabinet approved the 2011 budget ($81.9 billion) on Sunday after an increase of 3 billion dollars and a deficit of $13.3 bil
2. The cabinet granted the MOF the right to borrow from the World Bank and the IMF
3. The deficit will be covered by surplus and the amounts retained in the 2010 budget as well as internal and external borrowing and savings derived from increases in oil prices
4. The MOF plans to borrow $4.5 bil from the IMF and $2 bil from the WB

2-7-11 Barzani and Talabani talk over Goran statement today

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Barzani will meet with Talabani today to deliberate over current Iraqi and Kurdish issues, especially the state by Goran regarding reshuffling the Kurdish cabinet and parliament
2. They will discuss the situation in Kurdistan, the recent political developments in the Iraqi arena, and filling the vacant Iraqi cabinet positions
3. The main point of this meeting, however, is to discuss Goran's comments
4. His comments were critically slammed by the majority in parliament
5. 9 post left to be filled and it is mentioned in the article that Maliki wants to incorporate women in his cabinet

This article says the Goran refuses to apologize for its statements

2-7-11 Source: Maliki's desire to remain al-Obeidi as defense minister reason to delay the nomination of candidates for security ministries

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Source said the reason for the late announcement of the names for the security ministries is the insistence of Maliki to keep the former Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi in office
2. Maliki has rejected other candidates because of this
3. Some in the List are ok with Obeidi, while others are not
4. Maliki is also insisting on the nomination of Adnan al-Asadi for the Interior ministry, but some in the National Coalition object to this

2-7-11 Spokesman: Kurds secured Iraqi intelligence institution

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. A spokesman for the Kurdistan bloc said the Kurds have been given the presidency of the Iraqi Intelligence Institution, but they were not given the name of the candidate
2. The allocation is now only an agreement between the political parties
3. The Kurds will not be given the defense, interior, or national security ministries
4. Reports suggest the List will get the 3 other ministries
5. The security posts will be debated in Parliament this week
6. The debate may stretch out to the coming week
7. 9 posts still remain to be filled

2-7-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1830)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 7-FEB-2011. The results were as follows:

Details	Notes
Number of banks	18
Auction price selling dinar / US$	1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$	-----
Amount sold at auction price (US$)	166,020,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)	-----
Total offers for buying (US$)	166,020.000
Total offers for selling (US$)	-----

Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets