2-7-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     CBI auction results

2.     Spokesman: Kurds secured Iraqi intelligence institution

3.     Source: Maliki's desire to remain al-Obeidi as defense minister reason to delay the nomination of candidates for security ministries

4.     Barzani and Talabani talk over Goran statement today

5.     The Iraqi government recognizes the current year budget after an increase of three billion dollars

6.     Parliament voted unanimously to provide the ration card items

7.     Nujaifi announce its support for the reduction of the salaries of the three presidencies and the salaries of ministers and deputies

8.     budget: Iraqi Parliament further postpones second reading

9.     Iraq: Large Movements of Oil in the South Will Improve Economy;

10.  Maliki's meeting with heads of parliamentary blocs led to important results

11.  Ashour: meet Maliki, Allawi-will prove whether anticipated national partnership remain or collapsed

12.  Council given 48 hours to amend draft budget

13.  Talabani Proposed the Appointment of a Turkmen Deputy IV

14.  Sharif Salim: Blocks Meet Soon to Resolve the Crisis Census

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Kaperoni’s Thoughts – February RV?

2.     Night chat from yesterday

3.     Med chat

4.      

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     MTT rumor

2.     Skype chat – PD rumor

Where Are We At?

1.     Today was a busy news day.  There were so many articles that I couldn’t get to all of them.  But I get the general idea of where things are going.  For the most part, news fell into 3 categories: 1) Budget; 2) GOI trying to address concerns of protestors; 3) Familiar news about them trying to resolve issues over government formation.  The Kurds were able to secure the Intelligence position.  That was probably the only forward movement I saw today.  The other news is related to Allawi and Maliki meeting soon to resolve their differences.  We also saw news of why there have been delays related to the security positions.  It was said that the reasons for the delays is because Maliki wants his people in and has been rejecting candidates so that he can get his preferred candidates in.  In other Maliki news, his meetings with the leaders of political blocs was said to be productive.  Also, it was said that the meetings between him and Allawi would bring an end to the obstacles preventing finalization of the National Council of the Supreme policies. 

2.     In budget news, Parliament delayed the second reading of the budget until 2/13.  There was another article saying that the budget would be returned to the ministerial council on Thursday.  They council would then have 48 hours to make amendments.  It is then expected to go to Parliament on Sunday.  Other news on the budget divulged the reasons for the delays.  The article said that the reasons for the delay is because Maliki didn’t provide his adjustments.

3.     There were quite a few articles about the government’s knee jerk reactions to the protestors’ demands.  I didn’t get to summarize many of these articles, but suffice it to say that there were plenty of them today.  In short, it appears that the GOI is trying to appease the people by trying to address their concerns.  We saw some of this when Maliki took a 50% pay cut.  Today saw a few articles about the ration card.  The first was related to Parliament agreeing to increase the financial allocations for the ration card, and wanting to investigate why the program hasn’t worked well in the past decade.  A study will be presented tomorrow.  Another article reported that the Ministry of the Interior will be returning 255 billion to the treasury due to over 1000 administrative corruption, and over 300 cases of financial corruption! 

4.     There was news about the census today.  The MP said the reason for the delay in the census is because there is no political consensus on when it should be done.

5.     With regards to rumors, Kaperoni is optimistic about an RV by end of month.  He’s looking for the GOI to be approved by Parliament before seeing the RV.  In terms of the GOI formation, he feels things are moving forward.  Med was saying the budget wasn’t the important thing.  Instead, the IMF and World Bank loans were the important items.  He feels the delays in the budget will feed the fire of protestors since the GOI can’t do anything to address their concerns without an approved budget.  Night has been consistent on the budget.  He’s been saying it isn’t required for the RV.  Night was told everything was done as of last Thursday.  We are only waiting for the RV.  Multiple sources have told him to expect the RV this week.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the second time (scheduled for Sunday)

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.     Today was all about getting news out to the Iraqi’s about the things the government “wants to do for the citizens”.  Maliki opened the floodgates when he made it public that he wanted to return half his salary to the treasury.  Now, the rest of the government is trying to follow his lead to quiet the protestors.  Although, I did briefly scan one article where it was said some in the National Alliance disagreed to reducing their salaries by half.  Meanwhile, the protesting continues.  Given the recent actions (whether they are genuine or not), the GOI’s actions give the appearance of a sense of urgency related to addressing the citizen’s concerns (i.e., lack of services, complaints about the ration cards, food, etc.).  I wonder if this was just an opportunity to divert attention away from what really matters….completing the government and the budget?  While there is forward movement on government formation, I’m not seeing the same sense of urgency as I see on matters of the citizen’s concerns.

2.     Just when I thought we were getting close to finishing the budget, it goes backwards a step!  Personally, I don’t think we’ll see the budget finish until the government is finished.  I’m not saying that because we know that they need a full government to ratify the budget.  Instead, I say that because they will constantly adjust the budget if they know they have the time, and they know they have the time because the government isn’t yet fully formed.  I’m confident the pace of completing the budget will quicken if the pace of forming the government speeds up. 

3.     I haven’t heard news of the census in a while.  It’s interesting to see it pop up now.  It seems like all things relevant and necessary are coming together towards the finish line to be finished up.  The census is tied to the HCL.  It has been rumored that the HCL would need to be passed prior to the RV.  But, they may need to complete the census prior to passing the HCL.  If this is truly the case, then I hope they get agreement on the timing of the census and get it done.

4.     I love the rumors that say we should see the RV this week.  We all want the RV done, and done yester-year!  Given that there are still reported outstanding issues between Allawi and Maliki on a number of issues, we still do not have an announced government, and neither of these to items appear to be close to being finished this week according to news, it’s hard to line up behind the thought of an RV this week.  On the other hand, if everything is done and we’re just reading made up news, then I wish they’d hurry up and just RV!   Do they not know how much time goes into reading all these articles?!