Friday, February 4, 2011

2-4-11 Recap of the day's events/postings


Facts:

Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
2.     Steve 1 update

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1.     Bank rumor

Where Are We At?
1.     They CBI auctions remain high.

2.     Today brought mixed news regarding the government formation.  On the one hand, it seemed that progress was being made because there was news of Maliki getting prepared to hand over names of candidates for the deputies, the ministries of electricity, trade, and women’s affairs.  He also is reported to be studying the names of candidates for the security positions…again.  Lastly, Maliki said he would fill all of the vacant ministries next week, with the exception of the security ministries.  So all that news sounds like there is progress.  On the other hand, it appears that Maliki and Allawi aren’t getting along again and are in need of Barzani’s assistance.  We even saw news of Allawi threatening to pull out of government again. 

3.     With regards to the Federal Court ruling, Parliament will be reviewing the draft of the Federal Court Act tomorrow. 

4.     Regarding the rumor of the rate per barrel equaling 14 dinar, that information was debunked as 2 people translated the article where it appeared.  The 14 was in reference to a 14% deficit in the budget—not the price per barrel. 

5.     In other important news, there were more demonstrations in Iraq today.  People in Iraq are protesting the lack of services and the fact that members of the House haven’t fulfilled their promises they made to the people during their elections

6.     The surprise news of the day had to do with Maliki asking the ministry of finance to reduce his salary by half and to deposit the savings into the treasury or use it in the budget.

7.     On the rumor front, there was another bank rumor suggesting that the bank was prepared for an imminent RV.  They ordered a currency machine and supposedly

What’s left?
1.    Reading of the budget for the first third time
2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)
3.    Formal announcement of government
4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6.    RV/RI
7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?
1.     The demonstrations are clearly having a positive effect on the government formation.  Maliki’s move to cut his salary today was likely a direct attempt, as Frank suggests, to appease the government and the people.  More importantly, Maliki’s move sends a clear message that the members of government must make sacrifices, including him.  Perhaps this will force Allawi to make concessions in order to complete the National Council of strategic policy issues, and the issues surrounding the security ministries.  Let's hope Maliki's move really does put pressure on everyone to finish the government.

2.     Next week, if Maliki does what he says he’ll do, we should see all the vacant ministries filled.  It’s not clear yet when the security ministries will be settled.  It has been rumored that Biden gave Maliki the names of the security ministries the last time he was there a few weeks back.  However, we haven’t seen Maliki make any decisions yet.  If he truly does have the names, and there is no disagreement, he should be able to bring the names to Parliament and settle it. 

3.     Regarding the budget, we should see the final reading this weekend.  Once approved, it will need to be ratified, which requires a full government.  So, even if the 3rd reading is completed, the ratification will need to wait for the announcement of the government.




2-4-11 Alsumaria News: Official Draft Budget Bill for the Republic of Iraq in 2011

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Alsumaria news received a version of the amended draft general budget law for 2011. This is the version that will be submitted to Parliament for a vote
2. The average price of oil being used is $73 per barrel
3. The full text of the budget is included in the article

Interesting that the price of oil being used is still $73. Yesterday's news said seemed to suggest that the budget was being delayed so that they could use a higher figure.

2-4-11 Iraqi Lawmakers Stressed the Need to Pass the Federal Court Act

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Members of the Iraqi Council discussed the need for the Federal Court Act in preparation for its approval
2. The claim comes after the Federal Court ruling on the independent bodies
3. A member of the List said the parliamentary blocs emphasized the necessity of activating the Federal Court Act, which was supposed to be approved in Parliament earlier
4. They noted that the great controversy during the past few days regarding the Federal Court ruling demands the need to activate the Federal Court Act
5. The Legal Committee members were invited to attend the House meeting tomorrow to discuss the draft Federal Court Act to help prove the constitutionality of the court or not, and to help determine whether their decision is binding or not
6. The member of the List said the country needs to gain the trust of the world, companies, and investors by improving the value of the dinar in order to encourage them to invest in Iraq
7. The National Alliance Deputy said the Federal Court's decision is binding
8. The article states that the Federal Court's ruling comes at the request of Maliki
9. The clusters look to the Federal Court decisions when it benefits them. When it doesn't, they question the constitutionality of the Federal Court

2-4-11 Steve1 update

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the detail of this posting on 1 Dinar (membership required)

1. Update provided by Ray in the form of questions and answers
2. I will not attempt to summarize. Instead, I'll highlight in bold those items that were of particular interest to me

*********************************************************************************
Question:
Can you tell us in more detail regarding the CBI Currency Auctions and if the banks actually receive cash?

Answer:
He said they received a combination of cash and wire transfers. Wire transfers was the greater amount.

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Question:
Do you know of current any bank mergers?

Answer:
He was not aware of any at this time.

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Question:
What are the main banks in Iraq?

Answer:
He said there are two main banks in Iraq. The Rasheed Bank and the Rafidian Bank. His nephew works at the Rafidian Bank which is across or down the street from the CBI.

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Question:
Do you know if the HCL law was passed or not?

Answer:
Heard of the law but was not aware of its status, but he did say that Kurdistan signed an agreement with the government allowing them to start pumping oil to sell.

***********************************************

Question:
Is the census done?

Answer:
He said it was not complete yet due to the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk were arguing with each about the census. They do not want to be included in the census because revenue to them would be affected by an accurate census count.

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Question:
Can he tell us more about the vacant ministries positions?

Answer:
He said that Maliki requested three candidates from each bloc to be considered for the remaining positions. They all refused and told him they would only send one candidate. He now has these candidates and is suppose to send his choices to Parliament in the next two to three days to be voted on. He said that their passage by Parliament should be no problem.


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Question:
What do you know about the status of the 2011 budget?

Answer:
He also heard that the budget would be completed this month.

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Question:
What do you know about the re-valuation of the Iraq Dinar?

Answer:
He told me that three months ago, all the bank managers had a meeting at the CBI with Shabibi. They were told that the dinar was going to revalue and go up, but they were not given a date or rate. They were only told that it would be soon. Two days ago his bank had an internal meeting and were told again the revalue would happening soon.


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Question:
What do you know about the lower new Iraqi currency?

Answer:
He said that new currency is already printed with the lower denoms along with coins too. The money is being stored outside of Iraq and will be brought in when the revalue happens. He also said, the CBI told the bank managers that the people of Iraq would have 30 days to exchange their dinars and people outside of Iraq would have 90 days.


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Question:
Are their any other current events ongoing that he can share?

Answer:
He also said that Exxon is running tv ads looking for workers to hire for work in the south of Iraq. All types of services were being hired.

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Rays comments to me:
He will be calling back home tonight and will try to get me more info. Looks to me that everything is almost in place and we should see an RV before long.



There you go folks, this is the best information we can provide to you. I will repeat myself, I am 200% confident of my investment in this country as should you.

Please have a great super bowl weekend and stay safe.

Ray and I will bring you additional information as we receive it.

Blessings to you all,

Steve

2-4-11 Frank post on Maliki's salary cut

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the posting on 1 Dinar (membership required)

1. Urgent message on Iraq TV saying that Maliki ordered the MOF to reduce his salary by 50% immediately, or by this month
2. Maliki receives over a million per month for his personal needs and body guards
3. He is trying to balance his salary with other GOI members
4. He instructed the MOF to put the savings into the 2011 budget
5. 90% of Iraq TV is covering Egypt. Maliki knows this. This action will cause the GOI to love him
6. The people will love him
7. Customs will go into effect on March 6th
8. If they collect taxes, then it can only mean they have a complete GOI before 3/6
9. Maliki is looking great now

2-4-11 Maliki to return 50% of his salary

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliki cut his monthly salary by 50% and will have the savings returned to the state treasury account
2. This will be effective this month
3. This will help reduce the disparity between salaries of employees in state institutions
4. Will also help reduce disparities in living standards for the people of Iraq, and will help with the budget

2-4-11 Prime Minister of Kurdistan: Official Export Field Taukei Will Begin At the Territory's Oil Minister

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Salih said that the process of exporting oil from the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which began two days ago was on a trial basis
2. On Thursday, they began exporting 11,000 barrels per day
3. They expect the amount of oil exports to rise

2-4-11 Bank rumor

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on PD (membership required)

1. UPS driver, who is a member of PD, was told be a military reservist that he took a 25k iqd note to the bank and gave it to a teller to see what she knew about it
2. She didn't know anything about it, but the manager saw the note
3. The reservists asked the manager whether he could verify if it was real and what the exchange rate is
4. The branch manager said that the bank just received a machine for currency verification
5. The note checked out and the manager told him that his 25k note would be worth $88k USD, but he could not yet exchange it

2-4-11 Okie Oil Man rumor

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Mission accomplished
2. Nothing left to be done
3. Just wait for the RV
4. Information is direct from Iraqi Parliament

2-4-11 Iraqi .. Considering withdrawal from the political process

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of the article

1. A source from the List said there is an imminent possibility the List will withdraw from the existing government
2. He said the relationship between the List and the State of Law has worsened significantly due to the recent agreements concluded between both parties
3. The National Council for the strategic policies is undecided because of the difference in opinion on where it should be voted

It should be noted that Allawi has threatened this very same threat several times. He typically does this to get his way.

2-4-11 Nominate Talabani and Abdul-Mahdi and Hashimi as Vice Khuzai Has Officially

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A spokesman from the List said that Talabani will present the names of the 3 candidates (Mahdi, Khuzaie, and al-Hashemi) for the deputies to the House tomorrow
2. He expects the head of the Republic of the House to approve the nomination of the fourth VP, for the Turkmen
3. He stressed that the House passed a law that would allow the president's nomination of 3 VPs only
4. The Turkmen demands the position of VP of the Republic

2-4-11 Iraqi Government warns of obstructing the implementation of the political agreement

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Voice of Iraq said Iraqi parties called for mass participation in government to implement and document the political agreement under the initiative of Barzani to realize the principle of partnership in administering the country
2. It warned Iraqi parties involved in attempts to obstruct the implementation of a political agreement which provides for the formation of the National Council of
strategic policy
3. The spokeswoman said that leaders in the list are attempting to delay the agreement

2-4-11 Abdul Karim al-Maliki choose Aftan to take over the Ministry of Electricity

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Sr source said Maliki chose Abd al-Karim Aftan for the ministry of electricity
2. Maliki said the rest of the vacant ministries will be filled next week with the exception of the security ministries

2-4-11 * $14 dinar per barrel price debunked?: G.E.T.

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. The article referencing 14 iqd per barrel was translated by two people
2. They said the 14 is not in reference to dinar. It is in reference to 14% and the budget deficit

2-4-11 A source reveals that Allawi, Barzani invited to mediate to resolve the problem of the Council of the Strategic Policy

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Allawi telephoned Barzani to intervene in solving the problem of the formation of the National Council for Higher Strategic policies and other pending matters
2. Barzani was asked to come to Baghdad for talks with leaders of political blocs, or to invite them to Arbil to end the problem of forming the Council
3. The remainder of the article is historical reference to the making of the draft policy

2-4-11 National Alliance: Maliki still studying ministry candidates for National Security, Defense, and Interior

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Deputy for the National Alliance says Maliki is studying the candidates for the security ministries
2. Maliki is still studying biographies of candidates for the security ministries
3. When he completes his review, the names will be put to vote in the House
4. Maliki gave the names of candidates for the ministry of trade, electricity, and women's affairs to Nujaifi yesterday
5. Maliki vowed to give the names of the candidates for the proxy ministries, but it didn't happen because there were differences between the blocs on some of the names
6. Biden was again said to be in charge of the security files

2-4-11 Demonstration in central Baghdad raises images of Che Guevara and demands to change the country’s policies

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Hundreds of activists and young people in the middle of the Iraqi capital were demanding a change in policy in the country, and a change in the methodology and application of promises from the members of the House during the election period
2. They want improvements in services and called on members of Parliament to fulfill their promises they made to people during the elections
3. The House denounced the use of bullets in a demonstration yesterday, which led to the killing and wounding of four civilians
4. Demonstrators carried photographs of Che Guevara and chanted slogans such as "leave leave parliament is unable, for security" and "Kandahar, Baghdad will not be"
5. There was another demonstration in the courtyard of paradise in Baghdad where families of were rejecting what they called "state terrorism" and waved placards reading "No to violations of privacy"

2-4-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1828)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 3-FEB-2011. The results were as follows:
Details Notes
Number of banks 19
Auction price selling dinar / US$ 1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$ -----
Amount sold at auction price (US$) 181,187,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) -----
Total offers for buying (US$) 181,187.000
Total offers for selling (US$) -----
Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets