Facts:
10. Prime Minister of Kurdistan: Official Export Field Taukei Will Begin At the Territory's Oil Minister
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. They CBI auctions remain high.
2. Today brought mixed news regarding the government formation. On the one hand, it seemed that progress was being made because there was news of Maliki getting prepared to hand over names of candidates for the deputies, the ministries of electricity, trade, and women’s affairs. He also is reported to be studying the names of candidates for the security positions…again. Lastly, Maliki said he would fill all of the vacant ministries next week, with the exception of the security ministries. So all that news sounds like there is progress. On the other hand, it appears that Maliki and Allawi aren’t getting along again and are in need of Barzani’s assistance. We even saw news of Allawi threatening to pull out of government again.
3. With regards to the Federal Court ruling, Parliament will be reviewing the draft of the Federal Court Act tomorrow.
4. Regarding the rumor of the rate per barrel equaling 14 dinar, that information was debunked as 2 people translated the article where it appeared. The 14 was in reference to a 14% deficit in the budget—not the price per barrel.
5. In other important news, there were more demonstrations in Iraq today. People in Iraq are protesting the lack of services and the fact that members of the House haven’t fulfilled their promises they made to the people during their elections
6. The surprise news of the day had to do with Maliki asking the ministry of finance to reduce his salary by half and to deposit the savings into the treasury or use it in the budget.
7. On the rumor front, there was another bank rumor suggesting that the bank was prepared for an imminent RV. They ordered a currency machine and supposedly
What’s left?
1. Reading of the budget for the first third time
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
What’s It All Mean?
1. The demonstrations are clearly having a positive effect on the government formation. Maliki’s move to cut his salary today was likely a direct attempt, as Frank suggests, to appease the government and the people. More importantly, Maliki’s move sends a clear message that the members of government must make sacrifices, including him. Perhaps this will force Allawi to make concessions in order to complete the National Council of strategic policy issues, and the issues surrounding the security ministries. Let's hope Maliki's move really does put pressure on everyone to finish the government.
2. Next week, if Maliki does what he says he’ll do, we should see all the vacant ministries filled. It’s not clear yet when the security ministries will be settled. It has been rumored that Biden gave Maliki the names of the security ministries the last time he was there a few weeks back. However, we haven’t seen Maliki make any decisions yet. If he truly does have the names, and there is no disagreement, he should be able to bring the names to Parliament and settle it.
3. Regarding the budget, we should see the final reading this weekend. Once approved, it will need to be ratified, which requires a full government. So, even if the 3rd reading is completed, the ratification will need to wait for the announcement of the government.