Monday, February 14, 2011

2-14-11 Steve I Update from PD

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on PD (membership required)

1. Steve has always said that: 1) the budget is done and put into law; 2) the GOI is seated
2. He bases his opinion on his involvement in Iraq and trusted friends that have shared information that aligns with facts
3. DesertDog contacted him this weekend and shared that the staff working at a bank across the street from the CBI met with high ranking bank officials from Russia and Brazil on Friday
4. They were in town for a special presentation (ceremony)
5. The bleachers and podium were in fact real and used this weekend
6. DesertDog's contacts called and told them the ceremony did take place, Shabibi was there, he announced the rate to the leaders at the event, and he announced the timelines
7. Steve knows for a fact the rate was announced
8. Last night his contacts said that Iraq TV stations were telling everyone that Iraq will be joining the WTO in March, and there were many positive things ahead
9. DesertDog's contacts assured them that the end is near and said that there was a long meeting into the night between the MOF and a representative of the US Treasury
10. The "new money" at the ceremony was introduced and it looked similar to the larger bills but without the zeros

2-14-11 Recap of the day's events/postings


Facts:
1.       CBI auction results

Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

Where Are We At?
1.       In government formation news today, it was reported that Parliament postponed its meeting today to Wednesday.  They said the reason for postponing the meeting is because of the opposition to the vote on the issue of the VPs of the Republic.  In other news, it appears that Maliki and Allawi have finally met.  It was reported that the meeting was positive and that they discussed all the topics agreed upon in the Barzani agreement.  Another article reported on their meeting and reported that Maliki confirmed the need to implement and abide by the agreement, and he noted that they need to apply the agreements through a national partnership to elect chairs, different positions, and by making decisions. Both parties were reported to agree on the need to complete the agreements as soon as possible.  Finally, in a third article about the meeting between Allawi and Maliki, it was said that they discussed the formation of the ministries as well as the Council of the strategic policies.  It also said that Allawi said only 6 of the 9 agreements have been complied with.  Lastly, a mini-committee will be submitting a draf law of the National Council to Parliament for a vote.  In a related article, it was stated that the vote in Parliament on the draft law will take place some time this week.
2.       The CBI auciton results today remain high
3.       In budget news, it was reported that all the issues have been resolved and that the budget should be approved soon.  No date was given.
4.       The Minister of Trade met with the US Department Treasury Secretary as well as other groupls to discuss a strategic partnership between the US and Iraq and a partnership that will build a vibrant Iraq econmy.  They also discussed implementing modern economic policies to integrate Iraq’s economy with the international economy and markets.  Finally, the discussed the requirements that should be in place for Iraq to join the WTO.
5.       On tariff’s, Iraq has postponed the implementation of the tariffs indefinitely
6.       In Kuwaiti news, Melkert met with a permanent representative of Iraq on 2/10.  They discussed the upcomming meeting with Maliki and Kuwait, and Melkert expressed optimism that Maliki’s visit to Kuwait would result in important decisions and solutions to some outstanding issues, including waterways, land borders, and oil investments in common.  He further stated that he felt both sides would reach a satisfactory agreement.

What’s left?
1.    Reading of the budget for the third time
2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)
3.    Formal announcement of government
4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6.    RV/RI
7.    HCL

Important Dates
1.      February (on/after Tuesday, but sometime this week) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 
2.      February 15 – 3rd reading of the budget
3.      February 16-17 – GCC Meeting
4.      February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
5.      February 25  -- Large demonstration online
6.      March 6 – Tariff law goes into effect : Postponed indefinitely
7.      March 29-30 – Arab Summit
8.      May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies
9.      May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
10.  June 30 – DFI expires


What’s It All Mean?
1.       The big news of today has to be the news of the US Department of Treasury meeting with Iraq.  One of the primary outcomes of this working group will be trade between the US and Iraq.  Further, they are actually discussing the requirements for Iraq to enter the WTO!  Based on these two things, what can be infered is that they simply must increase the value of their currency, or RV/RI.  Why?  First of all, we know that the WTO stated in an article that Iraq can become a full member of the WTO, but they stated Iraq must first close the gap between their currency and the USD.  Second, they discussed trade between the US and Iraq, among other things.  Trade between the US and Iraq?  Will Iraq want to trade with the US, or any other country for that matter, using a currency of so little value?  Imagine Iraq never increasing the value of their dinar and spending trillions up on trillions to trade with other countries.  They would get so little, but they would be spending a huge amount.  That scenario is not sustainable from so many different economic perspectives.  They have to increase the value of their currency if they are serious about trading with other countries.  Today’s article noted that Iraq said they are serious about trade.  There are many other reasons why their meetings all point to an RV, but I think those two reasons are enough.
2.       Although I did not post entries about demonstrations, they have not stopped.  In fact, the big demonstration on the 25th of this month seems to be scarrying the GOI more and more everyday.  This is good because we are seeing the GOI take measures to appease the people of Iraq.   They see the protests in Iraq, they see what’s happening around them, and they do not like their prospects.  The tariffs were likely postoponed primarily because of the protests.  The pace of the government formation is definitely being impacted by the protests.  This is not just a perception as we see members of Parliament and politician state that they must form the government now.  Although there was a hiccup today regarding the postponment of today’s Parliament meeting, it was stated they are working outside of Parliament to come to agreement on the VP issue, which caused the cancelation of today’s Parliament meeting.  More importantly, we’re seeing news of Maliki and Allawi meeting, and there are reports that the meetings are positive!  Last but not least, we continue to see progress with regard to Iraq addressing the outstanding issues with Kuwait.  When you add it all up, things look good in terms of all the pressures being placed on them to complete the government and in terms of the progress Iraq is making on the things we think they need to do to RV.  Let’s hope that Shabibi sticks to what he said and RVs/Ris “directly after the government is formed”.
3.       On the rumor front, back in January, I remember Delta saying he thought the RI/RV would surface in the middle of this month.  Well, here we are!  Given the GCC meeting, the mounting pressures from Iraqi protestors and the situation in the ME, Delta’s prediction is looking good at least from the perspective of the GOI getting completed by the middle of this month.  Given that Joe P didn’t divulge what the new bank news is yet, I can’t really comment on it.  In regards to Cage’s rumor, if it is true, I would think it only adds additional pressure on the GOI to complete what they should have done almost a year ago.




2-14-11 guest post by: Daniel Carlson

Don't Forget About Iraq!
Disclaimer: Daniel is the owner of Dinar Profits, a site that sells and buys Dinar and offers other related services. This posting does not mean that I recommend you purchase anything from his site. To be clear, I get absolutely nothing in return from Daniel for placing his information on my site. I haven't earned not even a shaving of a penny since I started this site! But, earning money was never the intent and nothing has changed. I am simply posting this because Daniel's information may be of interest to you as it relates to our investment.

Guest post by: Daniel Carlson of Dinar Profits

Iraq has made great gains, but the United States must keep a keen eye on Iraq. Progress must continue, Iraq can't be forgotten as other issues arise in the Middle East and America. The stability of Iraq and the political confidence from the international community are essential for the dinar to increase and maintain its value.

Highlights of Iraq's Progress:

1. Violence is down 90% since 2006
2. U.S. Troops reduced from 170,000 to 50,000
3. Prime Minister Maliki in place
4. Appointment of most cabinet members
5. Dozens of oil contracts signed
6. 24% increase in proven oil reserves to 143.1 billion barrel
7. Huge foreign investments, especially from China: China has doubled the number of exports to Iraq
8. Aggressive domestic investments to rebuild infrastructure: electricity, housing and oil field machinery
9. Higher than expected oil prices

Highlights of Iraq's Further Need

1. Iraqi police training to maintain stability post U.S. Troop withdrawal
2. Filling of key cabinet posts, especially minister of defense
3. Stopping the increased threat of Al-Qaeda
4. Reliable electricity to all Iraqi citizens
5. Easing any frustrations from citizens, especially those influenced by Egypt
6. Political navigation with powerful Shiite cleric, Muqtada Sadr
7. Increased foreign trade so that the dinar becomes more widely traded
8. Fulfillment and execution of oil contracts to regain confidence of foreign investors

The United States has too much to lose not to pay close attention to Iraq. Economic and political relationships are at stake and the way Iraq is shaping up, it is going to be a major global player both economically and politically. In addition, the U.S. has already given too much to neglect its future relationship with Iraq. Nearly $800 billion have been spent, more than 4,400 American soldiers' lives have been lost and more than 32,000 have been wounded. While there are other pressing issues that are rising, America must not lose its focus on Iraq. A stable and secure Iraq benefits both the U.S. and the dinar.

2-14-11 Skyp chat - Update from Joe P

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

1. Stay grounded
2. Second call today added to yesterday's is very exciting and nerve racking
3. Joe feels better than ever before and is thrilled with the situation in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He believes both are good for Iraq and investors
4. There is new bank intel, and it is not recycled. It's different and better
5. They are trying to get 4 confirmations instead of 2
6. If what is shared is true, the RV is at hand

*********************************************************************************
[2:05:22 PM] FROM JOE P ON PD SITE: It's obvious they're a whole lot of varying emotions out there. First of all stay grounded. Never get too high or too low.

As far as who to trust, I know there are a few I don't and won't. I cannot name anyone. That would be slander and not my style.

I remember passing on Intel once before that the RV would happen the next day. Boy, did that not go over very well. Won't do that again.

The quality of conversations is much better. The second call today added to yesterday's is very exciting and nerve racking.

All in all, I feel better than ever before. I am thrilled with the Egypt and Saudi situations. Both are good for Iraq and investors.

There is new bank Intel flying around. And no, it is not recycled. It's different and better. Trying to get four confirmations instead of two.

Be cautiously excited. Be vigilant with your planning. Be prepared to narrow your circle.

If, underline IF, what is shared is true, our journey's climax is at hand. I want it to be accurate for all of us. But, I remain guardedly optimistic.

Hope that makes sense.

Best,
Joe P

2-14-11 Mini-Committee Agree to Submit the Draft Law on the Council Allawi to Vote in the Next Parliament Session

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A political source revealed that the political committee charged with preparing a mini-draft law of the National Council for higher strategic policies will provide the law to vote in the next parliamentary session
2. The source said that the meeting included both the Kurdistan Alliance and the National Alliance
3. The most important differences between the parties is the mechanism to select the President of the Council
4. The List demands the mechanism be voted in the House
5. The National Alliance rejects that demand and doesn't want the Council as oversight above Maliki
6. Another member of the List said that Barzani has vowed to follow up on the details of the application of his agreement
7. The remainder of the article covers the political party's perspectives related to the Council, which haven't changed

2-14-11 UN Iraq Rep to meet UNSC Melkert; Discuss Iraq-Kuwait relations

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Ad Melkert met with a permanent representative of Iraq in Geneva on 2/10
2. Maliki will meet with Kuwait and discuss issues to resolve outstanding issues between Iraq and Kuwait
3. Melkert expressed optimism that Maliki's upcoming visit to Kuwait would result in decisions of importance and reaching solutions to some outstanding issues, including waterways, land borders, and oil investments in common
4. The Executive Director of the UN Compensation Commission said he sees progress and a clear desire of both Iraq and Kuwait during the past few months to resolve remaining issues
5. The permanent representative stressed that Iraq is working continuously on the solution to the outstanding problems with Kuwait
6. He is expecting both sides to reach a satisfactory agreement for both sides

2-14-11 Al-Maliki and Allawi Discuss Strategic Policy Council

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Maliki and Allawi met to discuss political compromises and the resultant agreements
2. Maliki confirmed the need to implement and abide by the agreement and noted the need to apply the bulk of the agreements through a national partnership to elect chairs, different positions, and by making some decisions
3. Maliki emphasized the need to build the strategic policy council in light of the political agreements reached by the Cabinet
4. Allawi called on Maliki to return some of the points at issue on the formation of the Council
5. It was agreed on the need to complete the agreements as soon as possible

2-14-11 Allawi, Barzani asked to continue to bring the views of

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on 1 Dinar (membership required)

1. Barzani and Allawi met yesterday to discuss the political situation in the Iraqi arena
2. They discussed the necessity of complet5ing the formation of the ministries as well as the Council of the strategic policies and its role
3. Allawi confirmed that only 6 of the 9 agreements from Barzani's agreements have been met

2-14-11 * CAGEtrucker Post: G.E.T. Team 2/13/11

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. Cage was told by boots on the ground that Maliki's let injury is not bad
2. The assassin was blown away by the US forces because they thought they were under attack
3. Maliki is out of the hospital and has been in a few meetings
4. Shababi and Maliki are under US military escorts
5. Boots on the ground said Shabibi was on TV on Friday and he said Americans can expect good things by Tuesday
6. He also said some US dignitaries are to be arriving
7. He also said an airplane from a wealthy US business man left Baghdad yesterday and arrived late Friday
8. Last night, Cage said that his friend said there was another attempt on Maliki's life
9. He said Parliament was having a rapid session to finalize all and make some announcement by the end of the Iraq day
10. His friend's translator told him the rate was $3.96

2-14-11 The Iraqi government to freeze tariffs indefinitely

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The Ministry of Finance said they need to postpone the new tariff law
2. He said they are examining the possibility of suspending taxes on imports and noted that the House is the only one who can decide whether to postpone or not
3. He said a committee was formed to consider the possibility of applying the tariff law in an agreed upon timely manner, or to consider the possibility of postponing its application for a specific period
4. They will make a recommendation to the Cabinet within a week
5. The committee believes it should be postponed for a given period
6. There is discussion about delaying the law or reducing the percentage
7. They acknowledged the need for such legislation
8. An economic expert and deputy director of the CBI said the problem is that society is not aware of the requirements of an industrialized country, and they do not "buy" the requirements
9. He said they cannot raise the industrial sector with higher prices for production in the country and declining prices for imported goods
10. He also pointed out that the government will have to postpone the tariff law because of the failure of economic awareness in Iraq
11. He said the community will not tolerate increases
12. He said there is nothing wrong with postponing the law
13. He concluded that if Iraq wants industrial development, it must be at the expense of the consumer. They will not be able to develop happy consumers and industries at the same time

2-14-11 US-Iraq Joint Economic and Energy Committee; Discuss DFI, WTO, and Iraq trade

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A joint US-Iraq committee for the Economy and Energy met on Sunday
2. The Minister of Trade and the Deputy Treasury Secretary headed the meetings
3. There were 5 working groups: public financial management, trade and investment, oil and energy, electricity, industry and private sector development
4. The joint committees continued its joint meetings to enable a real strategic partnership that will build a vibrant Iraq economy
5. It will also implement modern economic policies to integrate Iraq's economy with the international economy and markets

6. Iraq's Minister of Trade stressed the seriousness of their government in enabling investments in their economic sector by undertaking administrative reforms, decreeing new laws, and facilitating investors
7. They discussed the movement of the businessmen and investors developing and enhancing Iraqi's banking systems to enable banks to provide advanced banking services
8. They discussed the DFI successor arrangements and the requirements that should be in place for Iraq to join the WTO

2-14-11 Issawi and Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary discuss the reform of the financial system of Iraq

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The Research and Finance Minister met with the Deputy US Treasury Secretary
2. He said that they will not need to reform the Iraqi financial system
3. Instead, they discussed the need for a mechanism of action to set the country in the right direction
4. The discussions involved addressing what was needed to encourage the private sector in Iraq in order to advance the economy and investment in the country

2-14-11 Frank26/Delta from yesterday

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WISH TO READ RUMORS

Delta report
1. Maliki gave 8 of the 9 ministers to the GOI
2. TV said this gave the GOI confidence
3. Maliki asked for 48 hours on TV
4. TV said MOF is studying the budget and wants it done by the 15th. Could take longer
5. Frank/Delta have said this will be done between the 13th and 15th back in January
6. TV said that the UST arrived to meet with Shabibi to discuss: 1.) Iraq bank reforms, which Delta thinks is done; 2.) How to bring investors to Iraq (contracts are due to be canceled); 3.) IQD monetary policies(first time Delta has seen this on TV)

**********************************************************************************
This is for You Family……..Delta Iraqi TV Report Sunday 13th 2011. Before I start…………I know what other sites are saying and I………….Could care less. With that said……..Here goes. M gave 8 or 9 minister to the GOI today. TV said it gave the GOI confidence. (IMO......not to do a conf vote against him) BUT M did NOT turn in the same three that have been missing. They mentioned the three ministers …………Then M came on TV and said to give him 48 hours. (what did we say about a complete GOI….13th to the 15th……When did we say this…last week of January.) TV said MoF is studying the budget/audit and wants it all done by Tuesday the 15th. BUT ALSO said if it takes longer ……….Then it will. This is the part I was looking for Family…TV said UST ( 6 of them ) and deputy advisors arrived to meet with DR SHABIBI and Vice P. M. today to discuss three topics. 1.) Iraq bank reforms. (IMO…….Done)2.) How to bring investors to Iraq. (due to cancel contracts) 3.) IQD monetary policies. ( FIRST TIME I HAVE SEEN THIS IN IRAQ W

2-14-11 Rep. Ashwaq dry site Fayhaa TV: all the differences over the 2011 budget have been resolved and approve as soon as

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. An MP from the Kurdistan Alliance said that all the disputes relating to the budget have been resolved and that the House would continue to read the budget
2. She hinted the budget would be approved soon

2-14-11 The Iraqi List, describes a meeting of its leader, al-Maliki as positive

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on TCN

1. The List described the meeting with Maliki as positive and stressed that both sides discussed all the topics agreed upon in Irbil/Arbil/Erbil (this city has many different spellings...just wanted to point this out to sort out the confusion)
2. The meeting between Allawi and Maliki took place yesterday evening
3. Both sides also discussed the security ministries

Please note that Allawi and Maliki were scheduled to meet in the evening yesterday, but news came out saying that Allawi left unexpectedly to meet with Barzani. This news obviously contradicts yesterday's news saying they did not meet. Just goes to show that you can't always rely on news just as you can't always rely on rumors.

2-14-11 Iraqi List confirms parliament postponed due to differences regarding vote on deputies

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The List said a number of members of Parliament did not attend today's meeting because of opposition to the vote on the issue of the VPs of the Republic
2. The Deputy said there are talks outside the Parliament to reach a compromise
3. Today's agenda included the first reading to amend the draft Law on Election of one or more VPs, discussing the report of the Commission on Human Rights on the formation of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, 2nd reading of the draft law of the Federal Court, and the continuing discussion of the budget
4. Today's meeting is postponed until Wednesday

2-14-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1835)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 14-FEB-2011. The results were as follows:
Details Notes
Number of banks 16
Auction price selling dinar / US$ 1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$ -----
Amount sold at auction price (US$) 187,159,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) -----
Total offers for buying (US$) 187,159,000
Total offers for selling (US$) -----
Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets
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