Monday, January 24, 2011

1-24-11 Recap of the day's events/postings


Facts:

Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1.    Rumor from PD
3.    PD chat rumor

Where Are We At?
1.    Today, the government formation news heated up!  While you couldn’t tell from the list of articles in the Facts section, there were many articles in the news about the Federal Court’s ruling and how members of Parliament or the CBI didn’t agree with the ruling.  Because they all were the same in terms of the message, I chose not to post all of them in the Facts section.  Nevertheless, I can tell you that today was all about everyone’s dissatisfaction with the Federal Court’s ruling.  One person went as far as suggesting that the Federal Court is really not constitutional because Parliament didn’t form it.  To make a long story short, Maliki and the Federal court are tied up in a bad decision that has those affected by the ruling upset.  Essentially, Maliki made a power play to try to consolidate independent bodies of the government (i.e., the CBI) underneath him and away from Parliament.  Not only is are some in the government upset, but there was news of the UN stepping in, and according to Nighthk11, the IMF and World Bank are getting involved.  The next few days should be real interesting.
2.    Other than the main focus of government news, there was news of Allawi and Barzani meeting to resolve the issues over the legal committee.  However, there was also another article stating that Allawi didn’t meet with Barzani because he is on vacation in Jordan.  There is also news of the security ministries expecting to be resolved in the next week.
3.    The other big news of the day was related to Sadr and his unexpected departure from Iraq.  It was said that he left for a regional tour, but he didn’t disclose where he was going or when he would return. 
4.    In terms of rumors, we’re still seeing bank related rumors.  Although, I’m seeing more domestic related bank rumors these days.  But, the more interesting rumors are in Night’s chats.  His information is directly tied into they critical events happening right now, and his connections always bring interesting perspectives and insights into current events as well as rumors regarding why things are happening and what to look for next.

What’s Left?
1.    Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).
2.    Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)
3.    Formal announcement of government
4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6.    RV/RI
7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?
1.    There clearly is a trend developing here with regards to the Federal Court ruling.  More and more government officials are speaking out against the ruling.  The fact that the UN is getting involved (it is rumored the WB, IMF, and US Justice officials are also getting involved) should indicate the seriousness of the decision.   The UN and others should not need to intervene in the affairs of a sovereign government.  Big mistake on Maliki’s and the Federal Court’s part. 
2.    Why did Sadr leave unexpectedly?  No news of when he’ll return?  Does this really sound like something he would do on his own?  This sounds to me like someone on the run from someone.  Rumor has it that Iran was upset because Sadr was demonstrating against Maliki.   If that’s true, what does that say about the Iranian ties with Maliki?  Perhaps Night was right about the Iranian’s being responsible for the recent Court Rulings etc.?  
3.  If Night's information is correct, we should see 2 security positions filled and Shabibi immediately RV, and this should happen anytime between now and the 30th.  

1-24-11 Nighthk11 chat 2

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this chat on 1 Dinar (membership required)

1. Allowing Maliki to proceed will place in peril all economic advances that were made
2. Night was informed the the IMF, WB, and UN will intervene, but he doesn't know when they will do so
3. With Maliki in charge of the CBI, it leaves the RV at his discretion, which is not acceptable
4. THe question was raised as to whether Maliki can be replaced. YES
5. The GOI is on the verge of collapse because of his actions
6. Allawi, his nephew, and others are saying they want the Federal Court members replaced
7. Maliki's powerbase is just about gone
8. No matter what is in the press, there will be action that will result in the formation of the government
9. Night was informed that US Justice officials are heading to Iraq
10. Night believes the Iranian's are behind this
11. If this situation is allowed, the demands by countries to the UN for payment will be satisfied
12. This action may be the catalyst to get the final fire lit under the GOI
13. Night believes this is the last straw
14. Parliament can overturn the Federal Court's decision with an amendment, and they will--along with replacing all in the Federal Court
15. It doesn't matter if Maliki stays or goes, the RV must happen

1-24-11 PD chat rumor

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Person has a friend from Saudi Arabia
2. He is very well connected
3. The person from SA told his friend he'll be happy sooner than he thinks

*********************************************************************************
[*******] Listen up people, i have a friend from saudi arabi, he is a very wealthy man, i finally ran into him again today and he told me some very good news, I live in Tahoe and i met him a couple years ago playing cards at harveys, he gave me his email and he would never respond to my emails, well i seen him again today, i asked if he knew anything about the dinar from iraq... he replied to me and asked me what i knew about the dinar, I replied back and said that i was invested. I told him what i had and he said that i would be a very rich man soon, I asked more questions and he said he was very well connected and to believe what he is telling me, He says to be patient good things will happen sooner than you think... I am meeting with him wed night to have dinner with him and i will try to pry out some more info from him... until then thats all i can say...stay positive and this will come to the end soon...;)

1-24-11 Legal: Can not link the CBI with the Council of Ministers

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this posting on CNH

1. An expert in law said the the CBI can not be an independent body linked to the Council of Ministers
2. He also warned of the vulnerability of foreign assets being confiscated by Iraq's creditors
3. He said there should be no linkage to the government for the CBI
4. The CBI said in a statement issued today that their independence is the only thing that guarantees they are not subject to having their assets confiscated by their creditors

1-24-11 Bank assets abroad will be subject to confiscation by creditors

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Federal court's ruling to have the CBI under the Maliki constitutes a threat to the Iraqi funds
2. Their assets abroad could be subject to seizure by creditors
3. A spokesman of the Supreme Judicial Council said that the decision of the court is bound by all of the authorities and not subject to appeal

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المركزي: اصول البنك في الخارج ستكون عرضة للمصادرة من الدائنين BANK: Bank assets abroad will be subject to confiscation by creditors تم قراءة الموضوع 105 مرة Subject has been read 105 visits





24/01/2011 24/01/2011


انتقد قرار المحكمة الاتحادية الذي يربط الهيئات المستقلة برئاسة الوزراء Criticized the Federal Court decision which connects independent bodies under the chairmanship of Minister
بغداد- الصباح BAGHDAD - morning
انتقد البنك المركزي ، قرا المحكمة الاتحادية القاضي بربط الهيئات المستقلة برئاسة الوزراء وليس برئاسة البرلمان، مبينا أن ذلك يشكل خطرا على الاموال العراقية. Criticized the Central Bank, has read the Federal Court decision to link independent bodies under the chairmanship of cabinet and not under the chairmanship of the parliament, noting that it constitutes a threat to the Iraqi funds.
وقال البنك في بيان صدرعنه الاثنين وتلقت "الصباح" نسخة منه إن "وضعنا تحت إشراف الحكومة بحسب قرار المحكمة الاتحادية يجعل اصول البنك في الخارج عرضة للمصادرة من الدائنين". The bank said in a statement Sdranh Monday and received a "morning," a copy of which was that "we have developed under the auspices of the government according to the Federal Court decision makes the Bank's assets abroad are subject to seizure by creditors."
وأضاف البنك أن استقلاليته التي "ينص عليها القانون كانت وما زالت الشيء الوحيد الذي يضمن عدم تعرض موارد العراق المالية في الخارج لاجراءات مصادرة من الدائنين الدوليين"، بحسب تعبير البيان. The bank said that the independence that the "prescribed by law was and is still the only thing that guarantees are not exposed Iraq's financial resources abroad for procedures for the confiscation of international creditors," according to the statement.
وكانت المحكمة الاتحادية العليا أصدرت قرارا في 18 من الشهر الجاري يقضي بارتباط الهيئات المستقلة المشار إليها في الدستور العراقي من بينها البنك المركزي برئاسة الوزراء مباشرة، وليس برئاسة مجلس النواب، وجاء القرار بناء على طلب لتبيان ارتباط الهيئات من مكتب رئاسة الوزراء مقدم إلى المحكمة الاتحادية في الثاني من شهر كانون الأول الماضي . The Federal Supreme Court issued a decision in 18 of the month provides a link independent bodies referred to in the Iraqi constitution, including the Central Bank under the chairmanship of Prime Minister directly, not under the chairmanship of the House of Representatives, and the decision came at the request to show a link bodies of Cabinet Office submitted to the Federal Court in second week of December.
ولاقى قرار المحكمة الاتحادية ردود أفعال متباينة من قبل الكتل السياسية ، بعضها مؤيد للقرار وبعضها معارض له. The Federal Court's decision to mixed reactions by the political blocs, each supporter of the resolution and some of his shows.
وأكد مجلس القضاء الأعلى على لسان المتحدث باسمه عبد الستار البيرقدار أن "قرارات المحكمة ملزمة من قبل جميع السلطات ولا يجوز الطعن بأي قرار من قراراتها أو حل المحكمة وإعادة تعيين أشخاص آخرين"، لافتا إلى أن "كل جهة تنظر إلى أي قرار يصدر من المحكمة الاتحادية من زاوية مصالحها الحزبية أو الشخصية". The Supreme Judicial Council on the lips of his spokesman, Abdul Sattar Bayraktar that "the decisions of the court is bound by all the authorities not subject to appeal any decision of its decisions or to resolve the court and re-appointment of other persons," noting that "every point of consideration to any decision by the Federal Court from the standpoint of partisan or personal interests. "


http://translate.google.com/translate?js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=1&eotf=1&u=http://www.alsabaah.com/&sl=auto&tl=en

1-24-11 Skype chat bank rumor

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Person talked to his banking source
2. Banking person said they just brought in a tech to train on the De La Rue machine
3. Training was held this morning
4. Was told a change is coming within 48 hours

**********************************************************************************
.[****] I just came on before talking to my banking source
[ ****] Brought a tech in to train them on a de larue machine that was placed in a big city
[****] Had a training session this morning
[****] BEfore the banks actually opened:
[****] he told me a change was coming and
[****] 48 hrs.:
[****] This will be over
[****] THe rate is live and hot
[****] THe rate has not changed....its waiting
[****] THats why we should be happy...upbeat
[****] I Say by thur. I am sitting in the caribbean

1-24-11 Nighthk11 chat

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this posting on 1 Dinar

1. Appears that the IMF and the UN have stepped in to put Maliki in check
2. The Kurds and the List have secured most of the power, which is why Maliki made the move to consolidate power
3. It may have to be reiterated to him again to either get on-board or be removed
4. It is clear he still has the mindset of a dictator
5. This week should be a defining moment in terms of government formation as Night was told that Biden and team have already picked the names of choice for the vacant positions
6. Night asked today for clarification on the remaining posts and was told Security (both positions) will complete the government. The remaining positions, while important, fall under internal government control
7. The Federal Court is under fire for their poor decision in favor of Maliki, which clearly violates the constitution and the UN has had it with this situation
8. Something of great significance will take place, as was explained to him
8. The people that have spoken to him have been spot on with regards to the meeting of the big 4. They indicated that Maliki must go
9. Maliki's latest move concerning the CBI and the Federal Court have incensed powerful people and they have made a decision
10. Their decision remains to be seen, but he was told to watch the news from Iraq
11. Maliki and his gang have to go
12. Night was told that Obama is "pissed" and has had enough
13. The IMF is heading for Iraq now and Melkert is to deliver a personal message to Maliki from Moon
14. This weeks anything is possible
15. Whatever they do, Night was told the government will be formed
16. Obama wants to put the economy in overdrive with the help of China and Iraq. China is on-board with the plans because they were given more oil fields
17. MOF is in Kurdistan settling the budget issues with the Kurds
18. Night expects government to be done by 1/30
19. Cover story for Sadr is that he was forced out because of warrants and threats from one of his allies
20. Iranians got him out because he was inciting the people to demonstrate against Maliki and the GOI
21. The fact that Maliki's government is not formed is being discussed in terms of it being in direct violation of the constitution
22. Night thinks that if the US needs to get rid of Maliki, they will probably leverage 21 above
23. Othman's statements about Biden taking over the security files support what Night was told about the 30th

Related article about the UN on the Fed Court ruling

1-24-11 Rumor from PD

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Source said the RV will take place sometime tomorrow

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[*****] Just got off a great call with Utopia and a source to be left anonymous I had to promise to keep the source out of this info to be shared. This is "RUMOR" but I have to say that it was quiet convincing that this will take place at some point tomorrow. Again please treat as "RUMOR" if you knew who the contact was you would be completely beside yourself. I am floored personally, please stay grounded do not buy anymore dinar. It was important for Utopia and I to share with all of you.

Here is a follow-on to the chat from above:

[******] I know EXACTLY why (person above) is excited. Drop-dead date is tomorrow so between now and then we should see an RV. Stay calm, cool and collected everyone

One more follow-on:

ything else...   
[*****] (second person above) I just spoke personally to a bank that both buys and sales dinar. She said that she had checked the dinar this morning to see if the rate had changed and it had not, she then told me I wouldn't want to sell it right now because they were expecting a change. I cannot tell you the bank and I realize that this is hearsay, and you don't know me from Adam. But this was told to me 10 minutes ago.

1-24-11 MPs to discuss federal court ruling on parliamentary committees

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. An MP from the List said that they will discuss the recent federal court ruling that connects parliamentary and other independent committees directly to the Cabinet
2. The law and constitution are clear in their view of where the independent bodies should align under
3. Parliament will discuss all details of the ruling and will ask the Federal Court to provide rational justification for the decision
4. Mullah went as far as to challenge the constitutionality of the court by pointing out that it was formed by Paul Bremer and not by Parliament
5. The ruling effectively puts the parliamentary committees under Maliki and is being described as a "coup against the constitution".
6. The List spokesman said that it is time to activate Article 92 of the Iraqi Constitution, which demarcates the Federal Court, the nature of its work, and the terms of its references
7. Maliki's own cabinet of ministers claim they were not consulted on the issue of the independent committees

Maliki is clearly trying to consolidate power underneath him. This is not surprising behavior from Maliki as he has lead the country more by dictatorship than anything else. That said, this development comes at a bad time given that they really do need to form the government prior to the Arab summit in March, if they want to be viewed as a serious government capable of participating in economic trade within the Arab community.

1-24-11 Iraq calls for the formation of a committee to review the agreement Barzani and resolve outstanding items

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. The List will form a committee to review what Barzani has not yet accomplished
2. They will work on the remaining items

1-24 11 Deputy of the Kurdistan Alliance excludes the resolution of security bags candidates next week

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. Kurdish MP ruled out the possibility of the candidates for the security ministries being finalized next week due to the lack of agreement between political blocs
2. Negotiations are ongoing

1-24-11 Araji reveals the reasons for the departure of Moqtada al-Sadr to Iran?

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. Sadr left Iraq suddenly
2. He's going on a regional tour, but will not disclose where and for how long
3. He will return to Iraq when done

1-24-11 National Coalition Announces Commitment to Erbil Agreement with Allawi But Started to Increase Any Paragraph Which

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. National Alliance member said that Asadi still maintains his alliance on the agreement with the President of Iraqi Kurdistan Allawi
2. He said that there is no clause stating that the vote on the Chairman of the national strategic policies is required in Parliament
3. He said there is no need to vote in Parliament

1-24-11 Barzani and Allawi in talks over Legal Commitee

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Barzani is in talks with Allawi to resolve the the deadlock over who should chair the legal committee
2. KBC spokesman said the Kurds have a greater chance of chairing the committee
3. The Kurds have threatened to have this decision voted on in Parliament, in which case they would likely win

1-24-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1820)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 24-JAN-2011. The results were as follows:
Details Notes
Number of banks 14
Auction price selling dinar / US$ 1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$ -----
Amount sold at auction price (US$) 119,860,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) -----
Total offers for buying (US$) 119,860,000
Total offers for selling (US$) -----
Exchange rates
Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets