2-19-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     In a demonstration demanding the resignation al-Maliki

2.     Allawi Refused the Presidency if Passed Outside of Parliament

3.     Iraq warns of dangerous consequences in the event of Maliki's nomination for an alternative candidate

4.     Thousands of protesters gathered Saturday morning in front of the Green Zone

5.     Parliament speaker insists on timely submission of federal budget in future

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Northwest Baldy Email to DD: Natinoal Banks Open During Federal Holiday

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     None

Where Are We At?

1.    And I thought news was slow yesterday!  Wow!  Well, the demonstrations continue and today was no exception.  There were hundreds of protesters walking in the streets after their morning prayer today.  They called for the elimination of the Senate, provisions of services, improved living conditions, and the dismissal of the Municipal Council.  More importantly, they called for the ouster of Maliki.  In other related news, thousands gathered in front of the green zone to protest against the violence and use of live ammunition stemming from security authorities.

2.    In government formation news, Allawi and Maliki are still at it.  Or rather, Maliki is still at it.  A committee decided that the vote on the President of the National Council will be outside of parliament.  The article mentioned that Allawi refuses to be president of the Council without winning a vote in Parliament.  Then, the List warned that there would be hazardous consequences in the event that Maliki rejects their candidate for the Defense Ministry.  Maliki stated that some of the blocs believe the ministries belong to them and said that the security ministries are independent and everyone is entitle to run.  Finally, the Sadrists threatened to withdraw from parliament over the Kut protest clashes if those behind the shootings of the demonstrators are not revealed.

3.    In budget news, Nujaifi said that the parliament will no longer accept late submission of the final accounts of the budget.  He said that the final accounts are always late and that the handling of the budget requires stricter time management in the future.  He also mentioned that the GOI will make a serious effort to renegotiate the agreement on the compensation payments to Kuwait, and suggested they could come to agreement

4.    In US bank news, many national banks across the state will be open on Monday.  Also, a bank manager on the MTT call last night said her bank would be open, but she wouldn’t divulge the reasons why they were going to be open

What’s left?

1.    Vote on the budget

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.     February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)

2.     February 20 – Vote on the budget

3.     February (but sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 

4.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

5.     February 25  -- Large demonstration online

6.     March 29-30 – Arab Summit

7.     May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies

8.     May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

9.     June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.     Starting with the government formation, I want to be sure we’re all on the same page about who is causing problems.  Maliki is causing the problems simply because he is not sticking with the agreements.  The news today of Maliki making the statement that the security ministries are independent and that everyone should be entitled to run for them is another way of him saying that he doesn’t plan to fill the security ministries according to the Barzani agreements.  Speaking of the Barzani agreements, in their meeting on 2-15, Barzani called Maliki in the presence of the US ambassador and Allawi to ask Maliki to complete what has been agreed upon regarding the National Council of the policies and the security ministries (read this article for a refresher on the details).  If you’re in the camp that believes that Allawi is causing the problems, why would the US attend a meeting with Barzani and Allawi and have Barzani tell Maliki to complete the agreements as agreed upon?  Wouldn’t it be the other way around where they would be telling Allawi to follow the agreements?  Allawi has been behind the scenes waiting for Maliki to do what he agreed to do in the Barzani agreements.  Maliki is clearly dragging things out and not doing what he was supposed to do, and in the process, he stands to lose his Federal Court.  He’s doing all of this because he doesn’t want Allawi to have powers over him.  This is why he doesn’t want the vote in Parliament for Allawi’s position.  He also doesn’t want Allawi to control the Defense Ministry, which is why he isn’t complying with those agreements.  He’s losing all his powers and is fighting hard to keep what little he can keep.  In the meantime, he’s stalling the government formation and people on the streets are getting angrier.  Not smart.  They are beginning to call for him to leave office.  Not sure what more it will take for him to get the messages.

2.     Let’s hope that they do what they’ve promised everyone they will do with the budget tomorrow….vote on it

2-19-11 Parliament speaker insists on timely submission of federal budget in future

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Nujaifi said that parliament will no longer accept the late submission of the final ccounts of the federal budget by government and its ministries
2. He sad that the final accounts of the budget are always late and that the handling of the budget requires stricter time management in the future
3. He said the accounts should be submitted early because the ratification of the budget requires integrated financial audit accounts with reports to determine the year's spending
4. He said they need to develop future strategies for the growing economy and that the economy should not be weak
5. Regarding the compensation payments to Kuwait, he said the government will make a serious effort to renegotiate the agreement
6. He explained they paid $31 bil in compensation to Kuwait leaving $22 bil
7. He said the 5% of oil exports for this year amounts to $5.23 bil and puts pressure on Iraq's federal budget for the year
8. He suggested that a new agreement could be reached in light of the positive atmosphere in the Iraq-Kuwait relations

2-19-11 Thousands of protesters gathered Saturday morning in front of the Green Zone

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Iraqi sources said a mass of demonstrators came out Saturday morning in front of the green zone to protest the security authority's use of violence and live ammunition to dispers the demonstrators
2. This lead to the deaths of many people in Sulaymaniyah, Wasit, and Diwanihyah as well as the continuation of arrests against protesters
3. This is being carried out by government forces on the orders of Maliki
4. The demonstrators are also protesting the corruption, lack of services, and are calling for government to expedite the provision of services as well as for them to stop the corruption in all aspects of the state

Sadrist Current threaten to withdraw from parliament over Kut protest clashes if those behind the shootings of demonstrators during the protest in Kut are not revealed

2-19-11 Iraq warns of dangerous consequences in the event of Maliki's nomination for an alternative candidate

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The List warned today that there would be hazardous consequences in the case that Maliki rejects its candidate and the nomination of a replacement candidate for the Defense Ministry
2. They confirmed that the Defense Ministry was given to the List according to the Arbil agreements
3. They warned against attempts to take over the Ministry of Defense
4. Aldenbos stressed that Maliki can not undo the Arbil agreement and can not give the Defense Ministry to someone who is not a member of the List
5. Maliki said that if agreement is not reached on the candidates, he would take a set of names to the House
6. He noted that some of the blocs believe some of the ministries belong to them
7. He said that the security ministries are independent and that everyone is entitled to run

This appears to be another end around attempt on Maliki's part. Let's hope he doesn't truly try to avoid meeting the Arbil agreements by placing one of his candidates in the Ministry of Defense position. That would be a blatant violation of the agreements.

2-19-11 Allawi Refused the Presidency if Passed Outside of Parliament

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A source familiar with the political blocs said the committee agreed that the vote on the President of the National Council (Allawi's position) will be outside of parliament
2. The source also said that he knew Allawi was in agreement and refuses to be president of the Council without winning a vote in Parliament

This will be problematic. The only thing we can hope for is that this source is wrong. The source does not appear to be a member of parliament or a spokesperson for a political bloc. So, I'm taking this with a grain of salt until I see more news from official sources.

2-19-11 Northwest Baldy Email to DD: Natinoal Banks Open During Federal Holiday

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. Person went to Chase bank and was told they were going to be open on Monday
2. Banker didn't know why the bank would be open on Monday, but she said there were a lot of closed door meetings this week and said something is going to happen
3. Person called Wells Fargo, US Bank, and BoA and was told they all will be open on Monday
4. Person's local banks will be closed
5. Only the national banks will be open

Last night on the MTT call, I heard someone ask a branch manager whether her bank would be open on Monday, she said yes. When asked why, she hesitated and said that she really couldn't divulge the reason why.

2-19-11 In a demonstration demanding the resignation al-Maliki

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Hundreds of demonstrators walked the streets of the market calling the elimination of the Senate, provisions of services, improved living conditions of citizens, and the dismissal of the Municipal Council
2. They also called for the ouster of Maliki and threatened to storm the building of the Municipal Council in the event of non-implementation of their demands within 30 minutes