1-22-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.    Barzani initiative includes agreement on Iraq security

2.    Maliki's visit to the state of Kuwait

3.    Biden hopes to see Iraq maintain security

4.    National Alliance reveals the launch of new candidates for the security ministries

5.    Iraq deputy minister to delay selection of security ministers

6.    Iraq calls on government to take urgent decision on security issues

7.    Iraqi lawmakers demanding an emergency session of Parliament to discuss deteriorating security

8.    Oil and gas law will be discussed after recess

9.    Leaders will meet to resolve ministry of National Security

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.    Boots on the ground

2.    KTF Wells Fargo bank rumor

3.    Interesting bank rumor

4.    Update on Panama HSBC cash in

5.    RV was done 1/11

 

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.    Kaperoni chat

Where Are We At?

1.      Today’s news was mainly focused on the government formation.  Barzani continues to implement his plan to complete the formation of the government. There is also news of Maliki working with Kuwait on their outstanding issues.   Since Parliament has taken recess, there has been news of the issues surrounding the security ministries.  This news continues today, but today is the first time I’ve seen the word “urgent” used.  In the general case, the government formation appears to have taken front and center.  The escalating violence in the streets appears to be putting pressure on the government to form, which is also likely related to their sense of urgency.  Also, Biden’s name was mentioned and within the context of helping Iraq with their security files, which means he will help them finalize the security ministry.  

2.      The oil and gas law has come up for a second time now.  There have been some who have said the HCL is done, but we are seeing news today where they are saying they need to discuss it in Parliament.  It appears that more work needs to be done.  Or, perhaps it is done and there are important items to be discussed. 

3.      In terms of rumors, the bank rumors are appearing from many and with more frequency.  They appear to be consistent.  I’m not sure if that is because much of the research and news of the bank activity rumors is coming from one group, or if it is because all the banks are truly doing the same things…..training and ordering large quantities of money. 

What’s Left?

1. Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).

2. Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)

3. Formal announcement of government

4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6. RV/RI

7. HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.      Given the escalating state of violence plus the upcoming Arab summit in March, Iraq must act with a high sense of urgency to complete the government.  I’ve seen nothing concrete that says that the summit will not take place if Iraq doesn’t have a government in place, but I do believe it makes sense that Iraq finalizes the security positions prior to the summit.  It has been said in the articles that the security ministry is critical to their economic, social, and political stability. 

2.      I have seen many bank rumors during the time I’ve been invested.  I’ve heard about how banks have trained their employees for foreign currency exchanges.  I’ve heard how bank employees were told they couldn’t take vacations for a few weeks.  What’s new?  I have not heard rumors of banks increasing their reserves.  I also have not seen anything persist like the cash in rumors reported to have happened in Kuwait, Jordan, Panama, and Hong Kong.  Further, I’ve never had any confidence in the past bank rumors.  But, on the Middle East cash outs, I know of at least a couple people who are adamant it has happened.  I also include Forex in the mix of the bank rumors.  For me, when I look at all the bank rumors now, I see a trend that I can’t ignore.  I can no longer ignore the bank rumors the way I have in the past.