Monday, February 28, 2011

2-28-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
2.     Nighthk11 chat

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

Where Are We At?
1.     News is still somewhat scattered.  Maliki announced a special meeting of the Council of Ministers.  He said the cabinet decided to hold a package of economic reforms, administrative, and set term limits of 4 to 5 years for some government officials. Sadr held Maliki responsible for the situation in Iraq and urged him not to disregard the responsibilities
2.     The List warned against eliminating the National Council saying it will create a big problem that will engulf the political process.  However, a National Alliance MP noted that Sistani doesn’t want the GOI to add a new position in government.  In other government news, the List said they are seeking to apply time limits to the implementation of the agreements signed by the political blocs in Erbil.  It was noted that 14 days have passed since Maliki said he would turn over the 3 security minister names to Parliament, but he still has not done so.  Also, it was reported that the delays in the security minister positions are related to mutual distrust between political parties.  Once again, the List threatened to leave the government due to the absence of political parties’ compliance with all agreements
3.     A member of the National Alliance said that Iraq is at a critical stage and added that it has great difficulties ahead concerning decisions that must be made on the rationalization of government as well as the reform of the political system
4.     In other news, the UN secretary general said that Iraq and Kuwait stand at the threshold of a new dawn of peaceful coexistence.  He also welcomed the steps the two countries have made to resolve outstanding issues within the framework of the UN resolutions.  The still need to resolve the issues of compensation, Kuwait’s position on Iraq emerging from Chapter 7, the border issues, and the missing Kuwaitis.  Also, Melkert met with Zabari to discuss a number of activities undertaken by the Mission of UNAMI as well as the role UNAMI will play in assisting Iraq with putting an end to all outstanding issues in the Security Council
5.     The CBI said that Iraq’s economic transactions are not affected by they disorders occurring in some of the Arab countries
6.     On the rumor front, Steve I’s sources tell him that parliament will be voting on the 3 ministry positions today.  His contacts still believe this week will see the RV.  Someone’s Baghdad course said the RV will occur by June of this year.  He said that rumor has it the rate will be between .56 and $1. Another person outlined the most common dates when the UN would accept an RV.  If the RV is not in March, then he cited April 1, May 1, or Jun 30th as possible dates for the RV.  Eagle stated that because this is a complete revaluation of the dinar, it will not be subjected to the UN dates and will not be pre-announced.  Night is saying that Iraq must RV and feels they will RV sometime this week.  He said that the RV is tied to the budget and that Shabibi said he would adjust the exchange rates to address the gap in the budget.  He confirmed the announcement Steve I talked about that took place in Baghdad.  His UN sources who attended the meeting to monitor it provided the confirmation
What’s left?
1.    Vote on the budget – Done!
2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3.    Formal announcement of government
4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6.    RV/RI
7.    HCL

Important Dates
1.     February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2.     February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3.     February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 
4.     February 25  -- Large demonstration
5.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
6.     March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011
7.     March 29-30 – Arab Summit
8.     May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
9.     May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
10.  June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?
1.     Although the news is somewhat scattered, there is a concentration of news related to the government responding to the demands of the citizens.  They appear to narrowly focused on meeting the demands of the citizens, which is a good thing.  However, there still is no progress on the security ministry positions as well as the issues surrounding the National Council.  In fact, today’s news suggests that we’re sliding backwards again with Allawi threatening to leave the government and the National Alliance dismissing Allawi’s demand to have the vote on the National Council go to parliament.  Then again, we’ve seen Allawi threaten to leave numerous times, and we’ve seen the National Alliance constantly taking a stand against Allawi and the National Council.  It’s not new, but it just suggests they are not moving forward.  Apart from this, the news has been really dull lately!  It seems there was a big push to get the budget and government done.  Once the budget was near finished,  the news was overtaken by the demonstrations and the government formation activities have almost stopped.  That is unfortunate as the news states Maliki still has not given over the 3 candidates for the security ministries.  I hope everything is done as so many say it is
2.     Concerning the budget, there seems to be a general consensus that tomorrow will reveal the RV because the budget becomes effective.  That means they can begin paying the companies/contracts.  It is also said to mean they must RV because they cannot pay with dinars, and because they wouldn’t want to pay out all the dinars only to RV.  That would be a waste of money on Iraq’s part since they would have paid too much for the contracts.  Tomorrow is only hours away.  Let’s hope everyone is right about that.  While it sounds good, I keep thinking about how Iraq has seemed to jump over every hurdle we’ve placed in front of them (i.e., Iraq must RV because of this….or that…and so on).  Can anyone find the silver bullet?!  Maybe this hurdle will be the last

2-28-11 Nighthk11 chat

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DV (membership required)

1. The demonstrations really scared the politicians and they will RV
2. They talked about being ready, but were not
3. Many currencies are due to RV on 3/1
4. Night was told the dinar is one of them
5. Night has seen some posting of the rate being .56 - .86
6. He believes it will be in the $3.10 - $3.30 range
7. If they follow the UN mandate, then we should see the movement tonight our time on the CBI site
8. They MUST RV
9. The UN mandate with information from the IMF requires countries to regulate their currencies to be in line with world prices for commodities that they are either trading or importing
10. This tool is used to stabilize the world's currencies so that fair market trading is achieved
11. China is not a member of the IMF and this is why it has been difficult to get them to raise the value of their yuan
12. There should not be anymore stalls as the RV must be done now
13. The pressure inside Iraq will not subside. Nor will the assistance from outside entities to follow through and get this done
14. Maliki most likely already released the 3 security minister names
15. The RV, according to Shabibi, is tied to the budget since they have a shortfall
16. He indicated they would fix that by adjusting the exchange rate and by borrowing
17. One of the keys here is paying the contractors in dinars--can't do that unless the dinar is international
18. The March 1 date for their budget is in line with the UN revaluation of currencies
19. Ration cards are to be loaded with the new dinar on the 2nd of March
20. If they plan to go from 250,000 down to 25,000, they must raise the value of the dinar to reflect that
21. We are still on track for tonight
22. Banks are ready
23. The US is in serious financial trouble--we need this RV as much as they do
24. Night has confirmation of the meeting in Baghdad and said the meeting did take place
25. The meeting was for minor politicians from the region and CEO's of companies doing large volumes of business
26. The information was given to him by people working in the UN. They were there to monitor
27. Maliki is not an issue--Parliament is the supreme authority as Nujaifi stated
28. When they missed the RVs in the past, it was internal. It's now global
29. We should see the RV this week

2-28-11 Patric4all Post: Peoples Dinar 2/28/11 (w/ Eagle’s Comments)

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS/OPINIONS

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. The UN Treasury listing shows that they seldom RV or update the rate of exchange for a country during the month
2. The person found that RVs in December usually happen on the 31st
3. Jan through May is usually on the 1st
4. June has 3 days that they can RV, usually on the 30th but on some occasions on the 16th and 17th
5. If Iraq moves the effective date of their budget, it will definitely not RV during the month of March
6. We'd be looking Apr 1st, May 1st, or Jun 30th
7. Eagle commented saying that countries listed on the UN Operational Rates typically go through minor currency adjustments
8. He states Iraq will be going through a complete revaluation
9. In his opinion, the usual dates of the announcement of the UN Operational Rates will not apply to the dinar
10. The reason why it won't apply is because the WILL NOT pre-announce the change in advance as they normally do; hedge funds will buy up the dinar if they know in advance

2-28-11 CBI: The Tensions in the Arab Arena Does Not Affect Trading in the Country's Cconomic

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The adviser to the CBI said that Iraq' economic transactions are not affected by the disorders occurring in some Arab countries
2. Saleh said the CBI has taken measures to prevent monetary and fiscal impact from the wave of disturbances that are taking place in the Middle East
3. He said the CBI is responsible for monetary policy and the prevention of vulnerability to external variables that fundamentally overthrow regimes, dealing with inflation, maintaining prcies, implementation of policy in oil prices, the management of the financial reserves of the State, and the issuance of the dinar

2-28-11 Zebari Mlkrt discuss how to end the outstanding issues on Iraq, the Security Council

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Zebari met with the special envoy of the Secretary-General of the UN to discuss various activities undertaken by the Mission of UNAMI
2. They also discussed the role of UNAMI in assisting Iraq with putting end to all outstanding issues in the Security Council

2-28-11 Exchange of Accusations Between Iraq and the Rule of Law is Responsible for Delaying the Implementation of Political Agreements

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The List threatened to leave the government again due to the absence of political parties' compliance with all agreements
2. The concerns they have are related to the national policies, rules of procedure of the Council of Ministers and deputies, general command of the armed forces, and national reconciliation and partnership issues
3. He said the List will soon agree with political blocs on developing a deadline for implementing the political agreements
4. A member of the state of law coalition lead by Maliki said the issues raised by the List are not new and that the issue of voting on the national strategic policy in the house should be dismissed and debated
5. He also denied the accusations of the security forces being given the commands to shoot demonstrators to disperse the crowd

2-28-11 Rumor from 1 Dinar

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of posting on 1 Dinar (membership required)

1. Person's Baghdad source says the RV will occur by June 2011
2. Maliki and his men have 100 days to get the act together and improve the citizen's lives
3. Everything is done: government; budget; security
4. Contact says that they are waiting for the new cash reserves of small bills that have more of the Kurdish representation on them
5. Kurdish representation is critical
6. There can be no RV until the banks get the small bills
7. A source inside the De La Rue mint says the new bills are being designed right now and some of the plates have been made. Printing will start soon
8. Some of the proofs may be shown behind closed doors at the Arab summit
9. Focus of the next 100 days is security and this will be achieved by working with the citizens
10. Security will occur when the population is appeased as ground is broken for all the civil projects to improve their lives
11. When the citizens see that work has begun security will increase dramatically
12. Rumor has it the rate is .56 IQD to $1 USD and this rate is approved bye the IMF and all other stakeholders
13. The timing of this coincides with the US assurance that full fledged membership into the WTO will happen by the end of this year
14. Source says RV is not necessary for the WTO entry as a full-fledged member, but it is necessary for security
15. Source says a lop is out of the question
16. Source says look for the CBI to stop auctioning IQD
17. When the auctions are halted, the RV is very near

2-28-11 Sadr: Maliki accountable for Iraq situation

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Sadr holds Maliki accountable for the situation in Iraq
2. He urged Maliki not to disregard his responsibilities and to put forth immediate solutions
3. Sadr started a week lon referendum to inquire about people's needs and demands

2-28-11 Sherwan Al-waeli: Mutual Distrust Between Political Blocs is a Major Cause of Delay in Naming Cabinet Security

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. An attorney attributed the delay in the National Alliance for their security minister candidates to mutual distrust between political forces as well as differences in views between the security minister representing the political bloc or a particular component
2. He said they need to accelerate the resolution of this issue and vote on the candidates as soon as possible

2-28-11 Iraqi List seeks to set deadline for implementation of Barzani agreements

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. A spokesman for the List said today that they are seeking to apply time limits to the implementation of the agreements signed by the political blocs in Erbil
2. He said although they have submitted candidates for the defense ministry, they still have not received a response
3. He noted that 14 days have passed since Maliki said he would resolve the security ministries within days
4. He accused the National Coalition of stalling on the issues of the unallocated security ministries as well as the leadership position of the National Council, which should be given to Allawi
5. The List has been critical of Maliki's government formation to date and has accused him several times of contravening the agreements

2-28-11 SteveI Post: Peoples Dinar 2/27/11 (Ray’s Update)

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of posting on DD

1. Their sources tell them that parliament will be voting on the 3 ministry positions either today tor tomorrow, and then will address the HCL immediately following
2. Maliki gave the MPs 100 days to get their act together, or be fired
3. Their contacts sill believe this week is on the table for an RV
4. Steve expects parliament will be busy over the next couple weeks executing projects with contractors to start new jobs for the unemployed
5. Steve is not promising this week for the RV, but isn't ruling it out

This article says the HCL is on the agenda for the House

2-28-11 UN: Iraq and Kuwait stand at the threshold of a new dawn in relations

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. The UN Secretary-Genearl said that Iraq and Kuwait stand at the threshold of a new dawn of peaceful coexistence and friendly relations
2. He said he welcomed the steps the two countries have made to resolve outstanding issues within the framework of the UN resolutions
3. The article mentions there are a lot of outstanding issues, the most prominent of the issues being the issue of compensation paid by Iraq, Kuwait's position on Iraq emerging from Chapter VII, the demarcation of the border between the 2 countries, and the missing Kuwaitis

2-28-11 Abdel-Latif: The Parliament today in a very critical stage

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. A member of the National Alliance said that Iraq is at a critical stage because the parliament is not yet completed
2. He added that the parliament has great difficulties head concerning decisions that must be made on the rationalization of government as well as the reform of the political system
3. He called for cutting and accelerating the need to hold elections for provincial councils and district councils, aspects in addition to legislation, and important laws relating to the salaries of the 3 governing bodies

2-28-11 Iraqi List: Failure to create National Council for the Strategic Policies will be a major imbalance in the political process

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. The list warned that the worldwide abolition of the non-formation of the National Council will create a big problem that will engulf the political process
2. An MP from the National Alliance noted Sistani's statement about the GOI not developing non-essential positions, including the National Council

2-28-11 Maliki announced decisions of the special meeting of the Council of Ministers

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. On a news conference, Maliki announced a special meeting of the Council of Ministers
2. He said the cabinet decided to hold a package of economic reforms, administrative, and set term limits of 4 to 5 years for the director-general and inspector generals in the ministries
3. He said this would force the minister to bear the responsibility for combating corruption within his ministry before they are audited
4. He wants to reduce the retirement age to provide additional employment opportunities for youth and graduates, and he wants to hold accountable those found guilty of bribery for the purpose of obtaining a degree and career
5. He also announced the Council of Ministers decided to launch projects to serve the process of reconstruction and services, agriculture, industry, reviewing the investment law, advocacy for law reform, provinces solving the municipal councils, affirming its support for early elections to provincial councils, and districts and areas in response to the demands of citizens
6. He stressed the rights of citizens to demonstrate peacefully

2-28-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1844)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 28-FEB-2011. The results were as follows:
DETAILSNOTES
Number of banks21
Auction price selling dinar / US$1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$-----
Amount sold at auction price (US$)137,609,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)-----
Total offers for buying (US$)137,609,000
Total offers for selling (US$)-----
Exchange rates
Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets