Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. News is still somewhat scattered. Maliki announced a special meeting of the Council of Ministers. He said the cabinet decided to hold a package of economic reforms, administrative, and set term limits of 4 to 5 years for some government officials. Sadr held Maliki responsible for the situation in Iraq and urged him not to disregard the responsibilities
2. The List warned against eliminating the National Council saying it will create a big problem that will engulf the political process. However, a National Alliance MP noted that Sistani doesn’t want the GOI to add a new position in government. In other government news, the List said they are seeking to apply time limits to the implementation of the agreements signed by the political blocs in Erbil. It was noted that 14 days have passed since Maliki said he would turn over the 3 security minister names to Parliament, but he still has not done so. Also, it was reported that the delays in the security minister positions are related to mutual distrust between political parties. Once again, the List threatened to leave the government due to the absence of political parties’ compliance with all agreements
3. A member of the National Alliance said that Iraq is at a critical stage and added that it has great difficulties ahead concerning decisions that must be made on the rationalization of government as well as the reform of the political system
4. In other news, the UN secretary general said that Iraq and Kuwait stand at the threshold of a new dawn of peaceful coexistence. He also welcomed the steps the two countries have made to resolve outstanding issues within the framework of the UN resolutions. The still need to resolve the issues of compensation, Kuwait’s position on Iraq emerging from Chapter 7, the border issues, and the missing Kuwaitis. Also, Melkert met with Zabari to discuss a number of activities undertaken by the Mission of UNAMI as well as the role UNAMI will play in assisting Iraq with putting an end to all outstanding issues in the Security Council
5. The CBI said that Iraq’s economic transactions are not affected by they disorders occurring in some of the Arab countries
6. On the rumor front, Steve I’s sources tell him that parliament will be voting on the 3 ministry positions today. His contacts still believe this week will see the RV. Someone’s Baghdad course said the RV will occur by June of this year. He said that rumor has it the rate will be between .56 and $1. Another person outlined the most common dates when the UN would accept an RV. If the RV is not in March, then he cited April 1, May 1, or Jun 30th as possible dates for the RV. Eagle stated that because this is a complete revaluation of the dinar, it will not be subjected to the UN dates and will not be pre-announced. Night is saying that Iraq must RV and feels they will RV sometime this week. He said that the RV is tied to the budget and that Shabibi said he would adjust the exchange rates to address the gap in the budget. He confirmed the announcement Steve I talked about that took place in Baghdad. His UN sources who attended the meeting to monitor it provided the confirmation
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3. February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
4. February 25 -- Large demonstration
5. February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
6. March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011
7. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
8. May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
9. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
10. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. Although the news is somewhat scattered, there is a concentration of news related to the government responding to the demands of the citizens. They appear to narrowly focused on meeting the demands of the citizens, which is a good thing. However, there still is no progress on the security ministry positions as well as the issues surrounding the National Council. In fact, today’s news suggests that we’re sliding backwards again with Allawi threatening to leave the government and the National Alliance dismissing Allawi’s demand to have the vote on the National Council go to parliament. Then again, we’ve seen Allawi threaten to leave numerous times, and we’ve seen the National Alliance constantly taking a stand against Allawi and the National Council. It’s not new, but it just suggests they are not moving forward. Apart from this, the news has been really dull lately! It seems there was a big push to get the budget and government done. Once the budget was near finished, the news was overtaken by the demonstrations and the government formation activities have almost stopped. That is unfortunate as the news states Maliki still has not given over the 3 candidates for the security ministries. I hope everything is done as so many say it is
2. Concerning the budget, there seems to be a general consensus that tomorrow will reveal the RV because the budget becomes effective. That means they can begin paying the companies/contracts. It is also said to mean they must RV because they cannot pay with dinars, and because they wouldn’t want to pay out all the dinars only to RV. That would be a waste of money on Iraq’s part since they would have paid too much for the contracts. Tomorrow is only hours away. Let’s hope everyone is right about that. While it sounds good, I keep thinking about how Iraq has seemed to jump over every hurdle we’ve placed in front of them (i.e., Iraq must RV because of this….or that…and so on). Can anyone find the silver bullet?! Maybe this hurdle will be the last
