1-25-11 Recap of the day's events/posts

Facts:

1.     CBI auction results

2.     Netdania showing $1.36 for USD/IQD

3.     We seek to approve oil and gas law

4.     File federal budget on Sunday

5.     Iraqi demands to speed up security in naming of ministers

6.     Supreme Court’s decision did not contradict the Federal independent bodies

7.     Maliki returns control of CBI back to the House

8.     The government is facing major challenges

9.     Kurds upbeat on end of Iraqi oil hangups

10.  Maliki may accept the captain and minister of defense

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Chief V rumor

2.     Frank26  notes from CC yesterday

3.     Okie Oil Man rumor

4.     PD recorded CC notes

5.     Night chat

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     Buckeye rumor from last night

2.     Okie Oil Man rumor from yesterday

3.     Skype chat rumor

4.     Bank rumor just in

Where Are We At?

1.     The big news today in regards to the government was that Maliki returned control of the CBI to Parliament.  It was suggested in the article that Maliki didn’t fully understand the risks associated with Iraq losing its assets to foreign creditors should it face a lawsuit.  There were also positive articles regarding the oil and gas law and the possibilities of it being approved soon.  Also, it appears that there is progress on the budget and that it will be received in the House on Sunday.  Finally, Netdania began showing the pairing of USD/IQD fluctuate live.  For the entire trading period today, it showed a rate of $1.36.  Keep in mind that the volume for the USD/IQD pair was zero.  This means that nothing was being traded.  We’re just seeing more testing.  But, it is interesting nonetheless.

2.     In the rumor mill, the general theme revolves around the RV/RI happening anytime between now and the end of this week.  There are some who believe the RV/RI will happen sometime between 2/1 – 2/15.  In terms of bank rumors, we’re seeing more domestic rumors.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).

2.    Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.     Starting with the big news, the CBI is back under the control of Parliament.  Is this truly because Maliki slipped up not realizing the exposure to the country’s assets?  Or, is this because the UN stepped in (and possibly others per Night’s chats)?  It’s hard for me to tell and maybe we’ll just never know.  In either case, it is certainly better for the country that the CBI is not under Maliki’s control given his clear dictatorship tendencies.  What do we know as fact about Maliki and him owning full control?  We know he hasn’t done enough for his people and his country.  We know that money and assets seemed to have disappeared.  We know that he has strong ties with Iran.  We know that he hasn’t kept his promises.  Given the little that I know about him and what he has done or has not done, I for one wouldn’t trust him with the power and control he is trying to obtain now.  I can’t help but believe that the people in Iraq feel ten times more adamant about it than I do.

2.     With regards to the rumors, they sound promising.  Yet, we still don’t have a government and we still don’t have an RV/RI.  As the days go by and the deadlines pass for the rumored RV/RI, the linkage between no government and the RV/RI grows stronger.  We’ll know for sure what this linkage is when the government is formed and formally announced.  It is clear that they are working towards resolving the government issues.  We see it everyday in the news.  Yes there was a setback with Maliki’s move to consolidate power.  But, other open issues continue to be discussed and worked on according to the news.  Back to the rumors.  I often hear that everything is done.  Delta even reported that Iraqi TV is reporting the same.  Is this fact?  Or, is this rumor?  If it is fact, our wait should be short.  If it is rumor, then we wait as usual.

1-25-11 Nighthk11 chat

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this chat on J4D

1. Events coming to light should make it clear that Maliki needs to go
2. Maliki allowed Iranian private security (quds force) on Iraqi territory with weapons
3. Only a coup or a vote of no confidence will remove Maliki
4. GOI members are speaking out in numbers now and some are advocating direct action to put him in check
5. Night believes the Federal Court will dissolve or be replaced
6. General consensus is is that they will not progress forward towards stated goals with him there
7. Some of the conversations here in the US is that they want him gone
8. It is clear he is trying to circumvent democracy and carry out the wishes of the Iranian government
9. Everything Maliki has done and is trying to do helps Iran
10. A weak Iraq is in Iran's best interest. In this way, they get around sanctions by using the wealth of Iraq
11. From Night's conversation, the State Department will use the GOI to deal with Maliki. This will be done to give the appearance of this being an "Iraqi decision"
12. If they do not resolve the final positions of government this coming week because of Maliki, they will vote to dismiss his government
13. Night also believes that in the next few months we will see many members of parliament dismissed
14. Maliki will be taking a regional tour on Sunday. The decision may be made while he is out of country
15. Many governments have re-established while the head was "on tour"
16. The Iraqi people Night has spoken with don't like Maliki and want him gone
17. Maliki has the court in his pocket, wants to control the Iraqi money supply, and has control of the military and police. Who would oppose him?
18. The Strategic Council would have oversight over Maliki and that is why he is stalling on that Council to be headed by Allawi
19. There will be no armed takeover. General Austin already delivered that message to Maliki from Obama and Biden
20. Night is looking for news this week that this has been resolved
21. Easy way out = Maliki goes on vacation, and they fire him and replace him with someone else
22. Why would Maliki leave when Parliament is re-convening Sunday?

Note: Today's news stated that the CBI will be returned to the control of the House. Perhaps this is the news Night is looking for?

1-25-11 Iraq List: Maliki may accept the captain and minister of defense

<b>Highlights/Thoughts</b>
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article on TCN

1. The List said that Maliki will accept their candidate for the Federal Ministry of Defense

1-17-11 Kurds upbeat on end of Iraqi oil hangups

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. Leaders of the Kurdish north said they hoped disputes with the central government over oil will be settled soon
2. Barzani said he felt that end of the bilateral dispute was near

1-25-11 Zebari: “The government is facing major challenges in the political, economic and security

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. Foreign Minister Zabari said there are significant challenges facing the current government, especially in the political, economic, and security area
2. He said that one of the most important challenges is filling the security ministries and dealing with exiting Chapter VII
3. He said the economic challenge will be in the government demonstrating its ability to develop Iraq's oil wealth and gas through the contracts signed by Iraq last year with a number of foreign companies
4. Zebari said that the Arab summit may possibly be held at the end of March

Related article where Shabibi discusses the importance of CBI's independence

1-25-11 Maliki returns control of CBI back to the House

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Maliki was working on all the important institutions he is in control over, and wanted to put them where they will ensure his survival and control of power
2. Maliki returned control of the CBI back to the House
3. He returned the CBI because he wasn't aware of the risk associated with the potential of losing all the assets to foreign creditors

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After al-Maliki put his hand on him .. Central Bank Warns of Khosar Iraq to foreign assets and exposure to financial crisis

Baghdad - working the Prime Minister of the Green Zone, Nuri al-Maliki to reference all the important institutions of his hand exclusively, to put them that will ensure his survival and control of power, after that the establishment of the Electoral Commission and integrity under the control has returned today to put the Central Bank of Iraq under the control of the House of Representatives controlled is it.

It seems that al-Maliki did not study this step well, with warnings issued from the bank that this step would lead to the exposure of foreign assets to seizure by creditors.

An official at the Iraqi Central Bank's decision to al-Maliki of Iraq would lose its responsibility to protect its assets and deposits abroad. "The independence, enshrined in law, was and remains the only guarantee for non-submission of financial resources of the Central Bank of Iraq outside of Iraq with the procedures for seizure and confiscation by international creditors.

" The Supreme Court ruled in Iraq has developed a number of important institutions under the supervision of the independent government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, rather than parliament. Among these institutions, the Central Bank and the Electoral Commission and the Anti-Corruption Commission.

The text of the law set in 2004 on the independence of the central bank, giving the bank the task of ensuring price stability at home, and building a stable financial system and competitive, and market-based, and aimed to promote sustainable growth and employment and prosperity in Iraq.

Source
aknews

1-25-11 PD recorded conference call notes

Athena:

• ·         Have serveral sources
• ·         Ex-executive banker and Forex trader – should see it Monday or Tuesday
• ·         Forex manager – said we are supposed to be seeing it this week
• ·         Received call from lawyer he knows; they buy Dinars in Nebraska; normally pays $36 for 25k note, but they wanted $68k for that same note; they are not cashing in, but selling for $68k; very good friend of his
• ·         Everything is pointing positive to where we want to be
• ·         Supposed to watch for today during Obama’s speech; it has something to do with it
• ·         Athena was given the exact same information from GW below

Dan on Obama speech

• ·         Anyone in that seat will take credit for it
• ·         He will take credit for it with Allawi and Talabani
• ·         They got on the phone tha thas contacts (secuirty-wise)

o    They read the speech

o    It could be related

o    Powerfull speech

GW

• ·         Have been corresponding with someone who communicates with a high-level, government person in the ME
• ·         Been told since last Thursday that it was supposed to go down last Thursday night
• ·         Was pushed off until Monday, with an outside date of Wed
• ·         As of this morning, there is no change in the information given so far

Dan

• ·         GW and Athena are in different parts of the country and didn’t know each other prior to this meeting

Chief V

• ·         He has contacts in the ME
• ·         One of his sources contacted him early last night
• ·         Military put out that they are allowed to ship Dinar via mail, registered and documented for IRS purposes.  This is effective immediately
• ·         This was always not allowed

Tony

• ·         Mr C called him yesterday regarding 5/3^rd bank
• ·         They said they can buy it, but the teller told him that he shouldn’t sell it
• ·         Another person called him from 5/3^rd and said they just had a meeting about the Dinar and she is not supposed to say anything (this happened during the time they were recording this call)

Joe

• ·         Don’t call to confirm any of this information
• ·         It could disrupt the flow of information and get people in trouble

Ron

• ·         Know who GW’s sources are
• ·         Because of those sources, he was able to get in touch with an entirely separate source who is very credible
• ·         What GW and Athena heard is what he was told

Dan

• ·         Lots of things happening right now
• ·         China visits
• ·         Canada releasing the Dinar from their OFAC list
• ·         TK and Okie have been dead on with their intel, but they made the mistake of giving the date and rate.  The wind shifted on them

Joe

• ·         Best decision we can take on last week’s activities on Forex is expect the new rate
• ·         They synched up all the boards across the board
• ·         Interesting things going on with regards to the Beta (Netdania); seems to be pulling or pushing data for multiple sources
• ·         Most interesting thing regarding Netdania is that Jeff and Joe got booted
• ·         Ron was looking from an Apple platform and saw something different from Joe and Jeff
• ·         Joe got a message saying that he’s not allowed to look at the table (after he got back in)
• ·         Checkbox next to Forex being ready and primed; thinks you can have confidence in it

Tony

• ·         What does blog really mean Chief?
• ·         Chief: it is either done or not; 1 says it’s done; we’ll find out the next day

1-25-11 Okie Oil Man rumor

 [OKIE_OIL_MAN] Obama had 4 separate speeches and dependent on what occurred today will determine which speech will be used--congress is voting on going back to 2008 spending era--today's events--will be a direct reflection on the r/v-Iraq is ready and waiting for the signal--more to follow
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] obama will not address specifically the r/v--only elude to global economic developments and promises of a better future thru education
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] obama will address the recent meetngs of worlds goverments regarding economies and stress the co-operation of all concerned
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] later-with more hopefully--dependant on source availability--senate and congress in session---nuff said 

1-25-11 Bank rumor just in

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Person's bank who has always said No to IQD told him they will exchange dinar when it revalues
2. They showed him the book they will use to verify the IQD
3. They told him to come in anytime to discuss investments

***********************************************************************************
[*****] This just in... Bank in NC who before said... No! No! No! to IQD... Basically told me today... Yes we will exchange my dinar when it revalues... Showed me the book that they would use to verify. Also told me anytime I wanted to come in and talk about investments just let them know.. Maybe had to do with the trunk load of dinar i showed them? Ya'll think?
[*******] ********** you are the third person that saw a book. something is happening big,

1-25-11 Skype chat rumor

[*****] "I have very reliable intel that has never given me a date and ALWAYS said it will not be in 2010, just got off the phone with him and he said he will be floored if it is not today and says to watch around 9 pm Baghdad time." That is in about 1/2 hour so we will know soon if this is reliable info.

1-25-11 The Supreme Judicial: Court’s decision did not contradict the Federal independent bodies

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. Spokesman denied that there is a contradiction between the Supreme Council and the Federal Court's recent ruling on the independent bodies as well as the related ruling in 2006
2. The Judge said that the Federal Court's ruling is consistent with the constitutional provisions
3. The Judge said that the work of the independent bodies in the last year was a mistake and away from the Iraqi state
4. He said that the Federal Court confirmed that the independent bodies are related to the structure of the Iraqi state
5. A member of the National Coalition said that the Federal Court decision issued in 2006 confirmed that the Integrity Commission is an independent body and that it is under the House
6. Chapter IV on independent bodies in Article (102) says that independent bodies are controlled by the House of Representatives

1-25-11 Iraqi demands to speed up security in the naming of Ministers

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. A spokesman for the List is saying the government needs to speed up nominations for the security positions because the delay is not in the interest of the political process
2. The security situation is deteriorating and the government needs to reconsider studying all elements of security in order to know the loyalty of the forces
3. He said that criminal organizations have capabilities beyond the security forces because of the support and access to confidential information, and because of the financial support from the people they deal with
4. He said that the security forces have already infiltrated to restructure these devices

1-25-11 Finance Committee: File federal budget on Sunday

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. A member of the Finance Committee and MP for the Kurdish blocs said the standing committee will receive the federal budget on Sunday
2. The House completed the first reading, and the process of approving it will begin after the holiday

1-24-11 Member of the Committee on Energy: We seek to approve oil and gas law

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of this article

1. A member of the Oil and Energy Committee said that their priority is to endorse the oil and gas law
2. The oil and gas law is expected to be discussed in the House in the next period
3. The former oil minister said that the law can not pass because the formula is old and doesn't take into account recent developments and changes
4. The House failed to adopt the law because of the political differences between Baghdad and Arbil

1-25-11 Frank26 notes from CC yesterday

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get to the details of the notes on DD

1. What Frank shared yesterday will carry us through until Sunday
2. Maliki took over the CBI
3. They appear to be in turmoil that Maliki may come in and the Kurds have more seats
4. Frank asked two people if they thought what Maliki did was a bad thing, and they said no
5. Frank mentioned that there is NO resistance and Shabibi hasn't said anything
6. In April of 2010, Maliki started to take control and fight the authors of the plan and the citizens
7. Maliki is trying to take control of the CBI because it's good
8. He is doing it because we can't fight him
9. Parliament and the people are not protesting this
10. They want him to do this so that he can release the rate
11. Maliki wants to do this so that he can be the "good Saddam"
12. Everyone is bowing to Maliki and not throwing a fit
13. Canada finished testing their banking system with a rate of .28
14. 18 currencies are due to change
15. Iraq TV says the CBI is looking into the Supreme Court decision
16. The Supreme Court is under Maliki, but the Kurds are in charge
17. No reason for Frank to share anymore information for 7-8 days. Iraq is "having a walk about"
18. TV said they are working on the budget and the ministries this week
19. They will pass the budget this week
20. Frank will begin watching them carefully 2/1, and will no longer watch Shabibi. He will be watching Maliki
21. RV is a 5 step process. We are on step 3. Audit was turned in. This is step 3 and they are still working on the audit.
22. Step 4 is to give the finance report to Maliki, which is not required anymore due to what Maliki did
23. Step 5 is when Maliki gives everything to the IMF
24. No confidence vote cannot happen because Allawi doesn't have the power. It was stolen just like the powers were stolen from Shabibi, or maybe Shabibi gave in
25. The world is not coming to an end and the USD is about to bounce back ASAP
26. Delta says they will RV the currency no matter who owns the CBI
DELTA conversation:
27. Why did the CBI delay? Greed. They made $50 billion from the auctions. They delayed this to get more money
28. The CBI gave the excuse they needed the GOI to be seated, and that's a lie because the CBI is independent of the GOI
29. Maliki is powerful. Everyone tried to take him out, but they could not
30. People say that Maliki is Iran's puppet. He listens to no one
31. Allawi is a complainer and we don't see the guy
32. TV said all the remaining ministries are done
32. Maliki told all that he has enough chairs to pass the GOI
33. Maliki also said that the budget is done
34. Delta says everything should be passed and done next week
35. The banks are testing the rate
36. No investment contract will be active until there is an approved budget and a GOI
37. Frank thinks that Maliki is trying to scare the CBI to RV immediately, and the opportunity may come this Sunday
38. Oil is down again as they are waiting for Maliki to RV

Ok.  I just have to say this.  This is a world's record entry for my blog.  Very long posting....sheesh!

1-25-11 Netdania showing USD/IQD at $1.35

Highlights/Thoughts

Use the search box in the lower left screen to search on USD/IQD. Then, show the Quote.

Please note that this is likely testing.  If you look at the volume, it shows zero.  This means that it is not being traded, and it is not being traded because it can't.  The IQD is not yet a globally traded currency.  If you look at the tabs, you'll also notice that the rate in the chart is still in the 1170 range.  

1-25-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1821)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 25-JAN-2011. The results were as follows:

Details	Notes
Number of banks	12
Auction price selling dinar / US$	1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$	-----
Amount sold at auction price (US$)	50,153,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)	-----
Total offers for buying (US$)	50,153,000
Total offers for selling (US$)	-----

Exchange rates
Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets

FROM PD:

[*****] I would say my source shared with me some very interesting info on why the auction was so light today but i am not going to be sharing this info, sorry. I will say this make sure your plan is ready and your ready to execute. We are not far off from this blessing.  

1-25-11 Chief V rumor from last night

Received word from Iraq that soldiers and civilians alike are now allowed to send IQD home, via registered mail, documented amounts etc. For IRS purposes.

This means one of two things...

1. It's done and over and now they don't care how much they send as they've paid dearly for it....lol

2. I'll leave this one up to you to figure out...

1-25-11 Okie Oil Man rumor from yesterday

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Should not have to wait much longer
2. Everything is done
3. He cannot tell us all of the information

Sounded like he signed a confidentiality agreement in order to get the information.
********************************************************************************

[OKIE_OIL_MAN] i'm not going to be on here long enough to answer questions--have new intel just recently received--there are a confidentiality
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] agreement that i have made--suffice to say that those of of today that was dis-appointed will not be dis-appointed very much longer--is is done and expect this week may be a wonderful week for all of us--lets see what develpopes--sure looking good right now
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] greg-call
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] wish i could tell all-but have to honor my word--if your word is no good --neither are you (myself i'm referring too
[cobra] OKIE_OIL_MAN thanks! I've been wondering how Obama would use his influence and if it was better for RV before his speech or after...
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] gankans--will happen sooner than expected--as per source 5 minutes ago

FULL CHAT:

11:51 PM [gankans] The RV has to be certain to happen, but the US would not RV until the settlements checks are confirmed... 11:52 PM

[gankans] Understand this... 11:52 PM

[OKIE_OIL_MAN] gankans-there are so many issues relating to this that it would take you all night just to skirt partial issues--details will confuse populas 11:52 PM [gankans] The US or federal resserve has had a pentalty of 5 billion a day until they release the settlement checks. Wow!... 1:53 PM

[gankans] I was told the pentalty was halted! Yeh! ... 11:53 PM

[gankans] Great news! ... 11:53 PM

[gankans] That means.... 11:53 PM

[gankans] Yes, the RV is on its way! Enough said... 11:53 PM

[OKIE_OIL_MAN] part of hold up was president wanting credit for this--give him the credit--i'll take the cash--heh heh::::

 That was from last night

[thedogmom] perladelmare thanksgrouphug1 [perladelmare] ::::11:18 PM [OKIE_OIL_MAN] I'm not going to be on here long enough to answer questions--have new intel just recently received--there are a confidentiality... 11:19 PM [OKIE_OIL_MAN] agreement that i have made--suffice to say that those of of today that was disappointed will not be disappointed very much longer--it is done and expect this week may be a wonderful week for all of us--lets see what develops--sure looking good right now... 11:20 PM

[OKIE_OIL_MAN] bad spelling and hit enter button too soon--should have 1 post instead of 2 11:26 PM

[OKIE_OIL_MAN] wish i could tell all-but have to honor my word--if your word is no good --neither are you (myself i'm referring too):::

11:48 PM [gankans] Ok, since we all know that bankers can't be trusted.... 11:48 PM [gankans] why would we start now... 11:49 PM

[gankans] The federal reserve is very deceptive and untruthful operation to put it lightly... 11:49 PM

[OKIE_OIL_MAN] please do not moderate my last post--its relevant--thnx... 11:50 PM [gankans] The Chinese made certain tat the US Federal Reserve was going to release the settlement checks 1st, because...

11:50 PM [gankans] if they didn't do it before the Rv, the federal reserve and the people who own it would have never released the...

11:50 PM [gankans] settlement checks...

11:51 PM [gankans] The RV has to be certain to happen, but the US would not RV until the settlements checks are confirmed...

11:52 PM [gankans] Understand this...

11:52 PM [OKIE_OIL_MAN] gankans-there are so many issues relating to this that it would take you all night just to skirt partial issues--details will confuse populas 11:52 PM [gankans] The US or federal resserve has had a pentalty of 5 billion

1-25-11 Buckeye rumor from last night

Highlights/Thoughts

1. Buckeye had 2 conversations with high sources, who are not related in any way
2. Sources come from different parts of the world
3. Was told that the RV will happen prior to the state of the union address today

**********************************************************************************

10:34 PM [BUCKEYE] I have Had two Conversations Tonight... this comes from the highest sources... I will tell you they are not related whatsoever... to each other they come from different parts of the world... I have had 2 confirmations in the last 2 hours that is going down before the state union address... O wants to look good folks this is happening