Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. The big news today in regards to the government was that Maliki returned control of the CBI to Parliament. It was suggested in the article that Maliki didn’t fully understand the risks associated with Iraq losing its assets to foreign creditors should it face a lawsuit. There were also positive articles regarding the oil and gas law and the possibilities of it being approved soon. Also, it appears that there is progress on the budget and that it will be received in the House on Sunday. Finally, Netdania began showing the pairing of USD/IQD fluctuate live. For the entire trading period today, it showed a rate of $1.36. Keep in mind that the volume for the USD/IQD pair was zero. This means that nothing was being traded. We’re just seeing more testing. But, it is interesting nonetheless.
2. In the rumor mill, the general theme revolves around the RV/RI happening anytime between now and the end of this week. There are some who believe the RV/RI will happen sometime between 2/1 – 2/15. In terms of bank rumors, we’re seeing more domestic rumors.
What’s left?
1. Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).
2. Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
What’s It All Mean?
1. Starting with the big news, the CBI is back under the control of Parliament. Is this truly because Maliki slipped up not realizing the exposure to the country’s assets? Or, is this because the UN stepped in (and possibly others per Night’s chats)? It’s hard for me to tell and maybe we’ll just never know. In either case, it is certainly better for the country that the CBI is not under Maliki’s control given his clear dictatorship tendencies. What do we know as fact about Maliki and him owning full control? We know he hasn’t done enough for his people and his country. We know that money and assets seemed to have disappeared. We know that he has strong ties with Iran. We know that he hasn’t kept his promises. Given the little that I know about him and what he has done or has not done, I for one wouldn’t trust him with the power and control he is trying to obtain now. I can’t help but believe that the people in Iraq feel ten times more adamant about it than I do.
2. With regards to the rumors, they sound promising. Yet, we still don’t have a government and we still don’t have an RV/RI. As the days go by and the deadlines pass for the rumored RV/RI, the linkage between no government and the RV/RI grows stronger. We’ll know for sure what this linkage is when the government is formed and formally announced. It is clear that they are working towards resolving the government issues. We see it everyday in the news. Yes there was a setback with Maliki’s move to consolidate power. But, other open issues continue to be discussed and worked on according to the news. Back to the rumors. I often hear that everything is done. Delta even reported that Iraqi TV is reporting the same. Is this fact? Or, is this rumor? If it is fact, our wait should be short. If it is rumor, then we wait as usual.
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