Monday, January 24, 2011

1-24-11 Recap of the day's events/postings


Facts:

Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1.    Rumor from PD
3.    PD chat rumor

Where Are We At?
1.    Today, the government formation news heated up!  While you couldn’t tell from the list of articles in the Facts section, there were many articles in the news about the Federal Court’s ruling and how members of Parliament or the CBI didn’t agree with the ruling.  Because they all were the same in terms of the message, I chose not to post all of them in the Facts section.  Nevertheless, I can tell you that today was all about everyone’s dissatisfaction with the Federal Court’s ruling.  One person went as far as suggesting that the Federal Court is really not constitutional because Parliament didn’t form it.  To make a long story short, Maliki and the Federal court are tied up in a bad decision that has those affected by the ruling upset.  Essentially, Maliki made a power play to try to consolidate independent bodies of the government (i.e., the CBI) underneath him and away from Parliament.  Not only is are some in the government upset, but there was news of the UN stepping in, and according to Nighthk11, the IMF and World Bank are getting involved.  The next few days should be real interesting.
2.    Other than the main focus of government news, there was news of Allawi and Barzani meeting to resolve the issues over the legal committee.  However, there was also another article stating that Allawi didn’t meet with Barzani because he is on vacation in Jordan.  There is also news of the security ministries expecting to be resolved in the next week.
3.    The other big news of the day was related to Sadr and his unexpected departure from Iraq.  It was said that he left for a regional tour, but he didn’t disclose where he was going or when he would return. 
4.    In terms of rumors, we’re still seeing bank related rumors.  Although, I’m seeing more domestic related bank rumors these days.  But, the more interesting rumors are in Night’s chats.  His information is directly tied into they critical events happening right now, and his connections always bring interesting perspectives and insights into current events as well as rumors regarding why things are happening and what to look for next.

What’s Left?
1.    Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).
2.    Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)
3.    Formal announcement of government
4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6.    RV/RI
7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?
1.    There clearly is a trend developing here with regards to the Federal Court ruling.  More and more government officials are speaking out against the ruling.  The fact that the UN is getting involved (it is rumored the WB, IMF, and US Justice officials are also getting involved) should indicate the seriousness of the decision.   The UN and others should not need to intervene in the affairs of a sovereign government.  Big mistake on Maliki’s and the Federal Court’s part. 
2.    Why did Sadr leave unexpectedly?  No news of when he’ll return?  Does this really sound like something he would do on his own?  This sounds to me like someone on the run from someone.  Rumor has it that Iran was upset because Sadr was demonstrating against Maliki.   If that’s true, what does that say about the Iranian ties with Maliki?  Perhaps Night was right about the Iranian’s being responsible for the recent Court Rulings etc.?  
3.  If Night's information is correct, we should see 2 security positions filled and Shabibi immediately RV, and this should happen anytime between now and the 30th.  

No comments:

Post a Comment