Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. In government formation news, Maliki that both he an Allawi are committed to the Barzani agreements. More importantly, Maliki announced that he will present the names of the 3 security ministry candidate, and he says he has more candidates if there isn’t agreement. In other news, Jaafar al-Sadr submitted his resignation today in protest against the deterioration of services and the inability of the GOI to provide anything for the people
2. In regards to Kuwaiti news, Melkert said that he believes that all issues between Baghdad and Kuwait would be solved.
3. In budget news, there were several articles today suggesting that they were done with the discussions on the budget, but the date for the vote was not consistent. Some articles say the vote will be on Sunday. Others say the vote will be Monday or next week. Also, Parliament called on Kuwait to cancel the outstanding debt owed by Iraq to Kuwait. Additionally, they want the 5% of oil revenues they pay to Kuwait canceled. Finally, a deputy for the List said that the final accounts for the past year will not hold up the vote on the budget, and the CBI said that it would be in an awkward position if the budget isn’t passed.
4. In other news, Maliki held a press conference today to address the economic reforms, protests, and his meeting with Kuwait. Also, the Kurds demanded a reduction in fuel prices and the establishment of power stations, and they warned that demonstrations would spread. Finally, it was reported today that the draft law of the Federal Court is still under study with the Council of Representatives.
5. In rumor news, it was reported that the RV was done and that we should see it within 24 hours, but we won’t be able to cash in until Monday or Tuesday. Cagetrucker also reported the RV is done and said the UN was in an emergency meeting. He also said Kuwait agreed and the UN will lift all sanctions now. Frank reported that Maliki stated that the citizens will not have to pay for their electric bills from today forward. He also said they would not need to pay for speeding tickets until further notice. In his much longer report, Frank suggested that Kuwait’s meeting with Maliki a month ago resulted in Maliki telling him the value of the dinar would increase. This, Frank suggests, is what made the PM of Kuwait give 20% of his 2011 budget to the people, and tell them he would pick up their food tab until next year. Delta reporting on the US Treasury meeitngs and said he felt this is significant. He also reported on what TV in Iraq is saying now regarding the GOI’s rejection of the 4th VP, the demonstrations, and the budget. He said TV said there is a good possibility that when Maliki returns, he would give over the 3 names for the security ministries.
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February (on/after Tuesday, but sometime this week) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget
3. February 17 – GCC Meeting
4. February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
5. February 25 -- Large demonstration online
6. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
7. May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies
8. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
9. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. Beginning with the big news for me, which is related to Maliki’s meeting with Kuwait, Melkert’s statement that he thinks all issues between Kuwait and Baghdad would be solved is a big deal. The UN lifted all sanctions from Chapter 7 except those relating to Kuwait. What they essentially said is that in order for the remaining sanctions to be lifted, Kuwait and Baghdad would have to agree on the outstanding issues. The fact that there was so much positive news from both sides, a committee will be established to work on the issues beginning in March, and taking into consideration Melkert’s statement tells me they have agreement. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so on this one. What this means is that the remaining sanctions can now be lifted, if I am right. If we need to wait for the resolution of all the outstanding issues, then we will not see the RV until sometime after the middle of March. That said, I do not think this will end up being the case given that violence is escalating quickly in Iraq. They haven’t even finished their budget and they are giving away things almost every day. If they drag out the RV, there will be nothing left for them to give away.
2. What else could hold up the RV? The government formation, of course. However, things sped up after Maliki’s meeting with Kuwait. He’s now ready to hand over more than 3 names for the security positions, if necessary. So, this will not be the hold up. I also do not believe Parliament will feel inclined to drag out the nominations given that the blocs eligible to receive those positions have all provided their candidates, and because of the escalating violence. So I am expecting the three names any day now.
3. On the budget, it feels to me they’ve been done with this long ago, but it feels like they’ve had to drag this out until it was close to the time for them to RV. If that’s true, then we’ll see the RV shortly after they vote the budget in, and of course, after they have a full GOI. The vote is this Sunday, or sometime next week. Either way, there really isn’t much left for them to do on this budget.
4. On the rumor front, Frank’s sugestion about Kuwait’s reaction to their meeting with Maliki is interesting. Taking 20% out of your budget in an unplanned way would have a devastating impact on a country, if it couldn’t fill that gap. So maybe Frank is right? It makes sense to me from the perspective of Maliki’s short visit to Kuwait along with all the positive news that came out of that quick meeting. Was that a meeting to just seal the deal? Sure didn’t seem like they had any seriousl discussions, but Maliki came back ready to go, and he’s beginning to give away the Iraqi farm. Interesting. Regarding the other rumors, it remains to be seen whether those have legs or not.
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