3-4-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     Iraqi Oil Minister: OPEC could cover the shortfall in the production of Libya

2.     Hundreds demonstrate in Tahrir Square in central Baghdad to protest the government’s actions

3.     Nijaifi, Kuwait’s Ambassador discuss Joint Committee’s work, outstanding issues

4.     Commission on the implementation of Article 140:: a plan for the disbursement of compensation to the entrants and deportees in the budget year 2

5.     Vice in Iraq: We look for a replacement for Allawi to head the Strategic Council

6.     Washington Post: Protesters say Maliki is using special security forces to shut down demonstrations in

7.     The end of the Friday demonstrations in Baghdad

8.     45 Arab companies withdrew from Erbil expo fearing turmoil

9.     i parliament will discuss the causes of events in its upcoming session

10.  Maliki heads a security meeting

11.  Muqtada al-Sadr frustrates Allawi plot to topple al-Maliki?

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Nighthk11 11:20pm 3/3/11 Chat

2.     Skype chat: Status of security ministries

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     None

Where Are We At?

1.     Another scattered news day!  The only theme we have is related to the protests.  So I’ll start there.  Hundreds of citizens in Baghdad were protesting poor services and demanding the elimination of corruption.  Toops sealed off the scurity of all ports of entry and exit to the areas surrounding the green zone, and Baghdad Operations Command imposed a curfew on cars, motorcycles, and bicycles from midnight until further notice.  It was reported they were expecting massive demonstration and that curfews were put in place in other provinces.  No acts of violence or riots were reported at the end of the demonstrations.  However, 45 Arab companies decided not to participate in the Erbil Internation Expo due to the unrest in the Kurdistan region

2.     Iraq’s oil minister said that Iraq aimed to explort more than 2.2 million bpd in March and that they are building new facilities for exporting oil that will allow them to export an additional 1.8 million bpd

3.     Nujaifi discussed with Kuwait’s Amabassador the relations between the two countries and the works of the Joint Committee formed to settle the outstanding issues.  They also discussed Nujaifi’s upcomming visit to Kuwait

4.     Concering Article 140, it was reported the plan for the disbursement of compensation to the entrants and deportees is in the 2011 budget.  A commission on the implementation of 140 was informed of the progress and performance.  They decided to pay compensation to farmers who had their contracts canceled, and they formed a committee for the purpose of preparing controls about how to include divorced and widowed women

5.     In government formation news, the List said they are looking for a replacement for Allawi for the presidency of the National Council.  He said the List is keen on the formation of this Council to undertake correcting past mistakes, whether at the level of the government or parliament.  It was reported today that Allawi led an elaborate scheme designed to remove Maliki from power.  The plan was reported as being supported by the US, Britain, Saudis, and in coordination with many media leaders and members of the army and other security agencies.  The plan detailed how they would coordinate the demonstrations across the cities and what the demonstrators would do.  The plan expected that Maliki and others would be killed during the demonstrations held on the 25^th.  It was reported that Maliki became aware of the plot and contacted Sadr, who then told his followers not to participate in the demonstrations.  The plan’s first attempt was thwarted, but there are many plans for settling accounts with Maliki.  The plans include a military coup

6.     Today, it was reported that Maliki met with the three ministers of security

7.     A deputy from the National Alliance said the Council of Representatives decided not to discuss the law of the National Council and 3 oil laws due to the conditions on the street.  Instead, they discussed the reasons for its upcomming events

8.     Concerning rumors, Night feels we will either hear bout the 3 security ministries being filled this weekend, or Maliki will be removed by force, if necessary.  He said that Maliki is on his own now and does not have US support given that he did not follow through on the Barzani agreements.  In other rumor news, someone reported on the status of the votes for the security ministers.  2 of the 3 were approved

What’s left?

1.    Vote on the budget – Done!

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.     February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)

2.     February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!

3.     February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 

4.     February 25  -- Large demonstration

5.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government; did not happen, unless it already happened and wasn’t made public

6.     March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011

7.     March 5 – Maliki may hand over the 3 security ministry candidates and Parliament may vote on them

8.     May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies

9.     May 15 – Arab Summit

10.  May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

11.  June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.     In government formation news, it appears that the List will move forward with filling the presidency of the National Council.  While the news of Allawi’s plan to remove Maliki from power was surprising and interesting, it’s a single data point as far as I’m concerned for now.  I’m not suggesting that it can’t be real, but I’m choosing to wait for more evidence that it is true.   That said, there was news today from two members of the List.  One said that it is too early for a vote of no confidence for Maliki.  The other said just the opposite.  This combined with the pressure from Allawi’s recent moves to activate agreements with Sadr and Hakim definitely puts pressure on him to perform.  Maliki will also continue to be pressed by the weekly demonstrations

2.     In other news, we continue to see Iraq working on Article 140 and the outstanding issues concerning Kuwait.  These are important issues that need to be resolved.  That said, this is not to mean that they must be resolved prior to the RV

3.     Concerning the news of Maliki meeting with the 3 security ministers, how is that possible?  On 2/13, it was reported that Parliament voted on 8 ministers.  However, it was reported that the 3 security ministers were not voted on and that Maliki has been the acting minister for the 3 security ministries.  Nothing has changed since that was reported on the news, which means that Maliki should still be the acting minister for the 3 security ministries.  But, he met with the 3 security ministries today.  How?  I can only think of one way.  They were selected already.  Now, is it possible that Parliament is just now getting around to voting on them?  Maybe, but one thing is certain, if he did meet with them today, they have to be in the positions.  This also means we’re real close to being done with the government formation!  But, this also means they have not been giving us the truth in the news….for a while.  That’s actually not surprising.  After all, we were told they finished the GOI at 12:30 on 2/2.  Don’t remember?  Read here  The same person who said this also said recently that Maliki will stay on as the PM for the full term, the US is backing him, and that we should see the RV in the middle of this month. Crossing my fingers!