Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Night thinks that we will see Iraq calling for Maliki's dismissal
2. He sees them lining up to challenge him once and for all and will likely have Parliament behind them to get rid of him
3. We should hear something about the last position being filled
4. If we do not, he will be removed by force of arms
5. Night does not think that with all the prep that has been done this will cause a delay in the RV
6. If Maliki names the last ministers, they might keep him until he does something else
7. Night doesn't feel they can go another week without the RV given what has come out
8. Sadr, Hakim, and Allawi are planning much larger organized demonstrations now
9. They will be country-wide and there are also threats of shutting down oil production among other issues...so Maliki is really in a corner
10. The RV will be good for them and allow the three to get their stuff together
11. What is being said by Barzani, Allawi, Sadr, and Hakim is that Maliki lied and had no intention of adhering to the agreement and they are tired of his mess
12. The Kurds put the troops there around Kirkuk for a reason--may have something to do with security or they know what the three are planning
13. However their internal issues play out, there will be an RV
14. The troops in Kirkuk may have something to do with Art 140, which Maliki agreed to but has done nothing yet to see it done as promised
15. He believes that with the demonstrations taking place and those planned it will be enough for him to understand he must act
16. Maliki has been given too many chances and now it appears to be over with their patience of him
17. Night is looking for concrete action this week to finalize the government
18. From what he reads and sees, actions are being done to support Allawi, Sadr, and Hakim in their quest to dislodge Maliki from power
19. Parliament may just vote no confidence in his government
20. Night said there was some talk today about the US backing Maliki
21. His info states that Maliki is on his own after the mess with Kuwait and not adhering to the Barzani initiative, which Maliki signed
22. That initiative was approved by the US, UNSC, and the Secretary General
23. Maliki's agenda (most likely from Iran) has backfired
24. Allawi stepped out of the presidency of the National Council position to free himself up to become the PM, should they dismiss Maliki
25. The treasury and justice department are still in Iraq and will remain there until after the RV
26. Night considers the group that Allawi formed an alliance with very powerful because they have the backing of the people
27. Maliki is buying time with the RV
28. Night believes that they realize he will never keep his word and so they will get rid of him
29. The stage is being set for the showdown at Parliament
30. Allawi is backed by the Sunni's, the Emir of Kuwait, and the King of Saudi, who are all Sunnis
31. If the security position is not filled this weekend, they will ask for a vote next week
32. Sadr and Hakim are organizing and calling for huge demonstrations in all cities in the 18 provinces including the Kurd territory
33. They are also threatening to shut down all government facilities and mostly OIL PRODUCTION
34. The call for a vote will be instituted by a bloc within parliament. Then they will vote. If there is 2/3rd majority, Maliki will be done. 2/3rd is needed because he is the head of governemnt
35. Night was told that even Maliki's Dawa party are not happy with him as he has been found to be lying to them--most notably about his "escape plans"
36. If Allawi and his new group stir up the people enough, Parliament will not be able to ignore their calls for his removal
37. Even if Maliki RVs, it will likely not stop the calls for his removal
38. If Maliki is forced to step down, Talabani will have no choice except to give the nod to the next largest bloc, which will be the List headed by Allawi and he will form within 48 hours
39. Allawi cannot head the council and the PM
40. Right now, Night sees Allawi's move as pressure to get Maliki to fulfill his agreements and get things going
41. The 100 days is not 100 ... the DFI protection runs out in June and will not be extended
42. All in the GOI will not be replaced. The GOI is already formed but not complete
43. There are alternatives to replace those who leave or are dismissed
44. Due to the time factor we are seeing it is either make or break for Iraq
45. Religion is paramount in Iraq. Remember, Iran is a theocracy led by the Mullah's and Sadr aspires to take Sistani's place as the primary cleric in Iraq...another theocracy?
46. Night sees no other reason for Sadr's return and immediately stirring up trouble with Maliki as his focus. He thinks Iran has decided they cannot do what they want
47. Hakim also has strong ties to Iran
48. Things have gotten hot for Maliki and Night can see the RV....nothing else will buy Maliki time
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