2-2-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.       CBI auction results

2.       Iraqi: "al-Maliki to Reject All Candidates and Threatened to Choose His Own Minister

3.       Maliki: draft bill of the National Council for the strategic policy is contrary to the agreement Erbil

4.       Cabinet approves the recommendations of the Commission to ensure the protection of Iraqi funds

5.       Maliki: We will not waive the requirement for independent security ministries

6.       Sadrist movement calls for the disbanding the Iraqi parliament and hold new elections

7.       Barham Salih, confirms that the Kurdistan Region is preparing to re-export of oil very soon

8.       News for resolving the position of intelligence chief of the Kurdistan Alliance

9.       Iraqi Parliament asks Federal Court to reinterpret its resolution linking government independent bodies

10.   National Alliance: Ahmed Chalabi and the Interior Minister in the Maliki Government

11.   President of the Parliament, that all attempts to form a new federal court

12.   Iraq needs to quick fixes to guard against any popular revolt

13.   The Budget Law of the Council of Ministers to Amend

14.   Virginia Considers Dollar Collapse, Gold Currency

15.   Foreign (News): Senior GCC Official to Visit Iraq Thursday

16.   Barzani attendance to Baghdad meetings is not necessary: MP

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.       MTT rumor – South Korea land deal with Iraq

2.       PD rumor update on budget

3.       Skype chat rumor

4.       Okie Oil Man

5.       Okie Oil Man chat 2

6.       Topguner rumor

7.       MTT rumor

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.       PD rumor

2.       MTT rumor – Canadian RV this morning?

3.       Rumor regarding RV last night

Where Are We At?

1.       Looks like we’re on a CBI roller coaster ride.  Today’s auction was really high.

2.       In government formation news, it was reported that Maliki and Allawi’s disagreements are threatning to impede the completion of the government.  Also, it was said that Maliki sent  Allawi a letter letting him know that he was rejecting all the candidates for the ministries, including the security ministries.  Maliki is also still fighting the National Council formation saying that the draft violates the agreements made in Erbil.  He also said (again) that he is not in a hurry to fill the security ministries because he is no longer stuck (meaning there are no deadlines?).  However, in another article, Maliki said he will go to Parliament with the names of the candidates for the security ministries and will do that early in the month.  There was additional news about Parliament wanting to dismiss the Federal Court, but I think the news that came in late today is very interesting.  This news is about Barzani not needing to attend meetings in Baghdad because it isn’t necessary!  The article stated that the political blocs are in agreement regarding outstanding issues, and that the issues are minor and do not require mediation by Barzani.

3.       On the budget front, the news stated that the House will bring a draft budget law to the Council of Ministers on Thursday to modify (amendments) it.  It is then expected that the budget will be read and voted on by Paliament.

4.       On the rumor front, the rumors of an RV started early this morning.  It was rumored that Canada would be RVing followed by the US shortly after.  This did not happen.  However, there were additional rumors that the RV is tomorrow, and this is coming from many different sources.  Finally, on an MTT call, someone interrupted and said breaking news is that Nujaifi said that if the government isn’t formed, he will call for re-elections.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the third time (assuming it is not already done).

2.    Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.       If the article regarding Barzani not being needed any longer is true, this is good news.  It basically means that we are very close, if not already there, to seeing the government formed and formally announced.  Further, if the rumor of Nujaifi is true, this will put tremendous pressure on Maliki to finish the government ASAP.  He clearly wants to be a part of the government, but a move for new elections would force him out.  He will have no choice.  The other pressure point is Parliament’s strong desire to dissmiss the Federal Court.   This would likely result in a vote of no confidence in Maliki.  So, he loses either way.  It means he must finish if he doesn’t want to face either situation.  He must take what he can get and move on.

If neither of the rumors is true, then we’ll need to wait to see what happens with Barzani’s initiative.  This information to me is the most important information because Barzani was tasked to go to Baghdad to complete the government.  He’s been working on that for the past few weeks.  So, if he is not needed, this tells me they are closer to forming the government than would appear.  All of the other information about the disagreements over who should fill seats, and the information about Allawi’s new position cannot be too meaningful.  If it were, Barzani would have stayed to mediate discussion and bring those issues to closure.

2.       With regad to the budget, if it isn’t already approved as rumored, we’ll see Parliament complete the 3^rd reading followed by ratification.  Bear in mind, however, they need to have a full government to ratify the budget.