2-5-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     Maliki confirms news of oil contracts approval between GOI and Kurdistan

2.     Free block: I will not vote on the budget unless allocated 15% of the salaries of oil to the Iraqi people

3.     Parliament ends 29th session; Will reconvene Monday

4.     CBI warns of negative effects from delay in approving the budget in 2011

5.     Start The Kurdistan Alliance, confirms the second phase of the initiative Barzani soon

6.     Allawi, Jaafari to discuss with the Council for the high-level policy and complete the cabinet reshuffle

7.     Iraq Put the Name of a Former Colonel in the Army For the Post of Defense Minister

8.     Sources: Put Name of Baqir Jabr Al-Zubaidi, Vice President of Policy Board

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     None

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     Skype chat - RUMOR from Athena

2.     Blaino rumor

Where Are We At?

1.     Slow day today!  About the biggest news there was today in government formation is related to the fact that they met today in Parliament to discuss the first reading of the draft law of the Federal Court.  There seems to be much debate as to whether Parliament has the ability to submit draft laws and whether there is a violation of separation of powers between it and the executive branch.  Needless to say, there needs to be more discussion.  The next meeting is Monday.  Regarding the Council for the strategic policy, Allawi met with Jaafari to discuss ways to accelerate the completion of his cabinet and its role in supporting and developing the government.  Finally, more names are being submitted for open positions.

2.      In budget news, Saleh spoke out today about the delays.  He said the delays on passing the budget would weaken the economic growth of the country.  He said the budget was built according to an economic growth rate assumption of 10%.  The implication here is that they will not achieve the 10% growth due to the fact that they haven’t approved the budget; hence, they cannot start on major projects that will have a positive impact on the growth of the country.  In other budget related news, there were members of the Sadr bloc who demanded that 15% of the oil revenues go to the salaries of the people.  Another said he wanted 25%.  Both are saying they will not allow the budget to pass unless they get what they are asking for.

3.     On the rumor front, we have much of the same news.  Everything is done and we’re just waiting for the RV sometime this week.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the first third time

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.     From looking at the news regarding government formation, it still appears that there is a sense of urgency to get things done.  Yet, there are still outstanding issues that may take a little more time to resolve….meaning….no GOI within days.  More specifically, the issues between Allawi and Maliki on Allawi’s new branch of government may take some time to resolve.  Also, today’s news said that Allawi was calling on the Kurds to assist in resolving the issues between him and Maliki.  Could this get done in a day?  Maybe, but not likely.  I can see them spending another couple weeks at minimum just to get to the point where they are in agreement.  All this, of course, assumes the GOI is not done.  There are some who are saying they are being told it is.  I hope it is done for their sake.  If not, I hope they work hard to get it done within days and not weeks.  Remember, there is a GCC meeting on the 17^th of this month.  Frank said they would need to RV prior to the GCC meeting.  Otherwise, they would not be able to join the GCC.  But, to RV, Shabibi needs to see the government announced.  Less than 12 days to go.

2.     Regarding the budget, it has been days since we’ve heard news of the budget being read.  The last it was in Parliament, they reviewed the amendments.  It was then said that they would bring the budget to Parliament for a vote.  I haven’t seen any news on this.  It is rumored the budget is done and was already posted in the Gazette.   I find it interesting that there really is no news of the budget being voted on.  But wait!  They need a government to ratify it!  Maybe the budget is sitting on the table waiting for the GOI? 

3.     On the rumor front, I’m not seeing news line up with statements that everything is done.  Does this mean the rumors are not true?  Not necessarily.  Only time will tell, of course.  If we see an RV in the midst of all the news of Allawi and Maliki not agreeing on the government formation, then we know everything was done and those who said it were right.  If we do not see the RV, perhaps we need to pay more attention to what is being said in the news.