Hello everyone,
This will be my last posting on this site. There are a few reasons for this. First, my schedule has been pretty hectic and I haven't been able to get to all of the articles that I feel you should know about. That has bothered me a lot. It make me feel guilty! Second, this obviously takes a lot of time, and it means time away from the family. Last, I believed for quite some time now that everything was finished. I was told this a while back before I started this blog. Since that time, I've written about quite a few news articles.
Much of what I've seen either made no sense or seemed like old news rehashed. When I say the articles didn't make sense, I don't mean that I didn't understand them. Rather, something just didn't seem right. Simply put. The news seemed made up. Today's news about Maliki meeting with the 3 security ministers was somewhat of the tipping point for me.
I think that news is GREAT on the one hand because we're really close to them actually admitting the GOI is done. On the other hand, being told that everything is done by a reliable source and reading and writing about these made up articles doesn't seem right because I don't believe the articles.
I've enjoyed helping those who benefited from the time I've spent on this site, and I've really enjoyed exchanging messages with some of you have emailed me. This has been a great experience in the short time it lasted. However, the better half of me just can't write another entry on articles that really aren't leading us to the truth. This is not to say that 100% of the articles are incorrect or false. But, it's my belief that enough are false such that we can't piece things together accurately enough to bring this home.
If you don't believe that, look at the best analysts there are out there. There are many. Each one of them has been wrong at one time or another. Every "RV must happen marker" has been wrong. It's not that they are bad analysts. In my opinion, it's just that we're given a very small amount of hidden and obscure truths and a lot of untruths. The net effect is that it makes it impossible for anyone to use articles to piece the puzzle together and get it right. Of course, the "Iraq factor" makes a liar out of the best of the analysts/gurus!
Given that, I'm left with just waiting for the moment! This journey has a positive end. I just don't know when it will end. But, when it does happen, I'll be happy that you all were patient and smart enough to wait this out so that you get to benefit from your investment. Of course, I'll be happy with my investment too! Be smart with your money and enjoy it for the rest of your lives! Lastly, don't forget that it is better to give than it is to receive!
Take care,
Justwaitingforit
Friday, March 4, 2011
3-4-11 Recap of the day's events/postings
Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1. None
Where Are We At?
1. Another scattered news day! The only theme we have is related to the protests. So I’ll start there. Hundreds of citizens in Baghdad were protesting poor services and demanding the elimination of corruption. Toops sealed off the scurity of all ports of entry and exit to the areas surrounding the green zone, and Baghdad Operations Command imposed a curfew on cars, motorcycles, and bicycles from midnight until further notice. It was reported they were expecting massive demonstration and that curfews were put in place in other provinces. No acts of violence or riots were reported at the end of the demonstrations. However, 45 Arab companies decided not to participate in the Erbil Internation Expo due to the unrest in the Kurdistan region
2. Iraq’s oil minister said that Iraq aimed to explort more than 2.2 million bpd in March and that they are building new facilities for exporting oil that will allow them to export an additional 1.8 million bpd
3. Nujaifi discussed with Kuwait’s Amabassador the relations between the two countries and the works of the Joint Committee formed to settle the outstanding issues. They also discussed Nujaifi’s upcomming visit to Kuwait
4. Concering Article 140, it was reported the plan for the disbursement of compensation to the entrants and deportees is in the 2011 budget. A commission on the implementation of 140 was informed of the progress and performance. They decided to pay compensation to farmers who had their contracts canceled, and they formed a committee for the purpose of preparing controls about how to include divorced and widowed women
5. In government formation news, the List said they are looking for a replacement for Allawi for the presidency of the National Council. He said the List is keen on the formation of this Council to undertake correcting past mistakes, whether at the level of the government or parliament. It was reported today that Allawi led an elaborate scheme designed to remove Maliki from power. The plan was reported as being supported by the US, Britain, Saudis, and in coordination with many media leaders and members of the army and other security agencies. The plan detailed how they would coordinate the demonstrations across the cities and what the demonstrators would do. The plan expected that Maliki and others would be killed during the demonstrations held on the 25th. It was reported that Maliki became aware of the plot and contacted Sadr, who then told his followers not to participate in the demonstrations. The plan’s first attempt was thwarted, but there are many plans for settling accounts with Maliki. The plans include a military coup
6. Today, it was reported that Maliki met with the three ministers of security
7. A deputy from the National Alliance said the Council of Representatives decided not to discuss the law of the National Council and 3 oil laws due to the conditions on the street. Instead, they discussed the reasons for its upcomming events
8. Concerning rumors, Night feels we will either hear bout the 3 security ministries being filled this weekend, or Maliki will be removed by force, if necessary. He said that Maliki is on his own now and does not have US support given that he did not follow through on the Barzani agreements. In other rumor news, someone reported on the status of the votes for the security ministers. 2 of the 3 were approved
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3. February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
4. February 25 -- Large demonstration
6. March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011
7. March 5 – Maliki may hand over the 3 security ministry candidates and Parliament may vote on them
8. May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
9. May 15 – Arab Summit
10. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
11. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. In government formation news, it appears that the List will move forward with filling the presidency of the National Council. While the news of Allawi’s plan to remove Maliki from power was surprising and interesting, it’s a single data point as far as I’m concerned for now. I’m not suggesting that it can’t be real, but I’m choosing to wait for more evidence that it is true. That said, there was news today from two members of the List. One said that it is too early for a vote of no confidence for Maliki. The other said just the opposite. This combined with the pressure from Allawi’s recent moves to activate agreements with Sadr and Hakim definitely puts pressure on him to perform. Maliki will also continue to be pressed by the weekly demonstrations
2. In other news, we continue to see Iraq working on Article 140 and the outstanding issues concerning Kuwait. These are important issues that need to be resolved. That said, this is not to mean that they must be resolved prior to the RV
3. Concerning the news of Maliki meeting with the 3 security ministers, how is that possible? On 2/13, it was reported that Parliament voted on 8 ministers. However, it was reported that the 3 security ministers were not voted on and that Maliki has been the acting minister for the 3 security ministries. Nothing has changed since that was reported on the news, which means that Maliki should still be the acting minister for the 3 security ministries. But, he met with the 3 security ministries today. How? I can only think of one way. They were selected already. Now, is it possible that Parliament is just now getting around to voting on them? Maybe, but one thing is certain, if he did meet with them today, they have to be in the positions. This also means we’re real close to being done with the government formation! But, this also means they have not been giving us the truth in the news….for a while. That’s actually not surprising. After all, we were told they finished the GOI at 12:30 on 2/2. Don’t remember? Read here The same person who said this also said recently that Maliki will stay on as the PM for the full term, the US is backing him, and that we should see the RV in the middle of this month. Crossing my fingers!
3-4-11 Muqtada al-Sadr frustrates Allawi plot to topple al-Maliki?
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Well informed sources, documents, and unequivocal evidence of the existence of an elaborate scheme lead by Allawi, supported by the US and Britain, Saudi, and in coordination with many media leaders and member of the army and other security agencies have been developing a plan in London during the various meetings attended by many of the parties
2. The plan was designed to complete the anger of the masses and rally the people so that they would be angry and resentful of the lack of services during the demonstrations on the 25th of February
3. The article describes how the demonstrations would be coordinated in such a way that some of them would provoke clashes with security forces
4. It was agreed with the groups that the center of the demonstrators would withdraw from Tahrir to the top of the bridge of the Republic and then penetrate the bridge
5. Another would then control the masses in a peaceful way to buy time until the afternoon of that day
6. The first evening of large groups of conspirators would kindle fire in all public places and markets to create terror and penetrate the green zone
7. The were to burn the Council of Ministers and the occupation of embassies, destroy and burn the Baghdad Provincial Council and seize the radio stations
8. They were then to announce the fall of the Maliki government and the formation of an emergency government and attribute the invitation of Allawi to form the Government of National Salvation to the US
9. They expected that Maliki and several officials would be killed by military and security leaders loyal to Allawi
10. Maliki was aware of this plot
11. The article talks about Allawi's previous failed attempts at executing the plan
12. Maliki's efforts to pay the security authorities to contain the protests by dispersing them thwarted some of the schemes
13. But what foiled the plot in full is the success of Maliki's agreement with Sadr to take a position
14. Maliki sent a private jet to Iran and offered him schemes, evidence, documents, and copies of the maps that were distributed to groups
15. When Sadr returned, he told his followers not to adopt the demonstration and postpone it after 6 months and only by popular referendum in the fight against corruption and public service
16. The article states the first episode was thwarted but it may not end because there are so many plans for settling accounts with Maliki
17. They talk about seizing power from Maliki through military coup
Maliki's broadened powers seen as a threat
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Well informed sources, documents, and unequivocal evidence of the existence of an elaborate scheme lead by Allawi, supported by the US and Britain, Saudi, and in coordination with many media leaders and member of the army and other security agencies have been developing a plan in London during the various meetings attended by many of the parties
2. The plan was designed to complete the anger of the masses and rally the people so that they would be angry and resentful of the lack of services during the demonstrations on the 25th of February
3. The article describes how the demonstrations would be coordinated in such a way that some of them would provoke clashes with security forces
4. It was agreed with the groups that the center of the demonstrators would withdraw from Tahrir to the top of the bridge of the Republic and then penetrate the bridge
5. Another would then control the masses in a peaceful way to buy time until the afternoon of that day
6. The first evening of large groups of conspirators would kindle fire in all public places and markets to create terror and penetrate the green zone
7. The were to burn the Council of Ministers and the occupation of embassies, destroy and burn the Baghdad Provincial Council and seize the radio stations
8. They were then to announce the fall of the Maliki government and the formation of an emergency government and attribute the invitation of Allawi to form the Government of National Salvation to the US
9. They expected that Maliki and several officials would be killed by military and security leaders loyal to Allawi
10. Maliki was aware of this plot
11. The article talks about Allawi's previous failed attempts at executing the plan
12. Maliki's efforts to pay the security authorities to contain the protests by dispersing them thwarted some of the schemes
13. But what foiled the plot in full is the success of Maliki's agreement with Sadr to take a position
14. Maliki sent a private jet to Iran and offered him schemes, evidence, documents, and copies of the maps that were distributed to groups
15. When Sadr returned, he told his followers not to adopt the demonstration and postpone it after 6 months and only by popular referendum in the fight against corruption and public service
16. The article states the first episode was thwarted but it may not end because there are so many plans for settling accounts with Maliki
17. They talk about seizing power from Maliki through military coup
Maliki's broadened powers seen as a threat
3-4-11 Maliki heads a security meeting
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Maliki headed an urgent meeting with the 3 security ministries: interior; defense; national security
2. They discussed the implications of today's events in terms of security
3. It wasn't revealed what mechanism may be employed to overcome the mistakes of the security forces in dealing with the demonstrations last Friday, and it was said those mistakes would not be repeated
4. Baghdad Operations Command announced a ban on vehicles roaming
This article says Maliki is the acting minister for the 3 security positions
What 3 security ministers?! Did he meet with himself? Did he set up 3 mirrors? Or, were those ministries done back in February as someone suggested?
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Maliki headed an urgent meeting with the 3 security ministries: interior; defense; national security
2. They discussed the implications of today's events in terms of security
3. It wasn't revealed what mechanism may be employed to overcome the mistakes of the security forces in dealing with the demonstrations last Friday, and it was said those mistakes would not be repeated
4. Baghdad Operations Command announced a ban on vehicles roaming
This article says Maliki is the acting minister for the 3 security positions
What 3 security ministers?! Did he meet with himself? Did he set up 3 mirrors? Or, were those ministries done back in February as someone suggested?
3-4-11 i parliament will discuss the causes of events in its upcoming session
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on TCN
1. A deputy of the National Alliance said that the Council of Representatives will discuss the reason for its upcoming events
2. He said they were supposed to discuss the law of the National Council and 3 oil laws, but the conditions on the street and demonstrations made the Council suspend those discussions
3. The remainder of the article provides an historical perspective on the government and their responses to the demonstrations
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on TCN
1. A deputy of the National Alliance said that the Council of Representatives will discuss the reason for its upcoming events
2. He said they were supposed to discuss the law of the National Council and 3 oil laws, but the conditions on the street and demonstrations made the Council suspend those discussions
3. The remainder of the article provides an historical perspective on the government and their responses to the demonstrations
3-4-11 45 Arab companies withdrew from Erbil expo fearing turmoil
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on
1. The general director for Erbil international expos said that due to the unrest in the Kurdistan region, Iraq, and the Arab world 45 Arab companies withdrew from the fourth International Exhibition for the Construction Industry in Erbil
2. The expo is currently underway in the Kurdistan Region
3. 50 companies registered
4. 5 decided to stay while the other 45 opted out
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on
1. The general director for Erbil international expos said that due to the unrest in the Kurdistan region, Iraq, and the Arab world 45 Arab companies withdrew from the fourth International Exhibition for the Construction Industry in Erbil
2. The expo is currently underway in the Kurdistan Region
3. 50 companies registered
4. 5 decided to stay while the other 45 opted out
3-4-11 The end of the Friday demonstrations in Baghdad
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The demonstrations in Baghdad ended after the protesters delivered their demands
2. They demonstrators called on the government to disclose the money spent on the ration card
3. They demanded better services and provision of ration card items, elimination rampant corruption in the joints of the state, and sacking of the governor of Baghdad and the President of the provincial council
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The demonstrations in Baghdad ended after the protesters delivered their demands
2. They demonstrators called on the government to disclose the money spent on the ration card
3. They demanded better services and provision of ration card items, elimination rampant corruption in the joints of the state, and sacking of the governor of Baghdad and the President of the provincial council
3-4-11 Washington Post: Protesters say Maliki is using special security forces to shut down demonstrations in
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Iraqi protesters are seeking to reform a democratically elected government, not topple an autocrat
2. But protesters, human rights workers, and security officials say Maliki has responded to Iraq's demonstrations with force
3. Witnesses in Baghdad and as far north as Kirkuk described watching last week as security forces attacked protesters, rounded up others from cafes and hamoes, and hauled them off blindfolded to army detention centers
4. Entire neighborhoods--primarily Sunni areas where residents are generally opposed to Maliki, where blockaded to prevent residents from joining the demonstrations, and journalists were beaten
5. A human rights activist said by someone that Maliki is starting to act like Saddam Hussein by using fear against those who criticize him
6. He said the US must feel embarrassed right now. They promised a modern and democratic state, but in reality?
7. The US officials issued a statement saying they were deeply troubled about Maliki's response to the demonstrations
8. Maliki has been criticized for showing an authoritarian streak, in particular for maintaining a shadow security force outside the regular chains of command. He strongly denies this
9. Maliki denied detaining any protesters, apart from four jounalist who were beaten and released
10. He said the violence would be investigated and blamed some of it on the journalist, former members of Saddam, and al-Qaeda operatives
11. Those who were targeted say Maliki is increasingly using special security forces to punish critics and political opponents
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Iraqi protesters are seeking to reform a democratically elected government, not topple an autocrat
2. But protesters, human rights workers, and security officials say Maliki has responded to Iraq's demonstrations with force
3. Witnesses in Baghdad and as far north as Kirkuk described watching last week as security forces attacked protesters, rounded up others from cafes and hamoes, and hauled them off blindfolded to army detention centers
4. Entire neighborhoods--primarily Sunni areas where residents are generally opposed to Maliki, where blockaded to prevent residents from joining the demonstrations, and journalists were beaten
5. A human rights activist said by someone that Maliki is starting to act like Saddam Hussein by using fear against those who criticize him
6. He said the US must feel embarrassed right now. They promised a modern and democratic state, but in reality?
7. The US officials issued a statement saying they were deeply troubled about Maliki's response to the demonstrations
8. Maliki has been criticized for showing an authoritarian streak, in particular for maintaining a shadow security force outside the regular chains of command. He strongly denies this
9. Maliki denied detaining any protesters, apart from four jounalist who were beaten and released
10. He said the violence would be investigated and blamed some of it on the journalist, former members of Saddam, and al-Qaeda operatives
11. Those who were targeted say Maliki is increasingly using special security forces to punish critics and political opponents
3-4-11 Skype chat: Status of security ministries
Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS
1. 1 person is seated for sure
2. Another is in the hot seat
3. The other hasn't gotten his turn yet
4. No one like the person in the hot seat except for Maliki
5. Parliament will break until the afternoon
Update:
1. The number 2 person is agreed on
*************************************************************************
Ok 2 calls in 2 calls back...my peeps are saying 100% 1 fore shure is seated.....one other is in the hot seat said he is being beat down like a card on a bicicle wheel...the other hasent got his turn yet....guess nobody likes him except M..wonder y.... o and ther slowing down ther tired little boys.....dude said that some are falling asleep wile there sitting there..he said it was said that if they got this guy seated they were gona break till the aftrenoon evening there today...there day...... My understanding is VOTED on....be back in a bit got to feed my self....
Update:
Ok here goes ...just in!!!!!!the number 2 is AGREED on and they taking a sleepy time..and gona seat when thy get back together..in the evening. ...that's what I got for now.... With info I'm given abot thing to transpier this weekend...I'm gona stick my neck out there and say.....wensday or Thursday afternoon here....leaning mor tword Thursday...because of the hours thing with the cbi needing to be shut down after the rv... so we know s has his " paper work" in to the world bank.we know atleast 1 is seatedfor shure 2 aproved to be seated later this afternoon there time we now M head is on the choping block.A has back up because he is a sissy...and he " steped down"..lolyea right...acording to my peeps.....id say depending on the protest. It will be intersting .....to see wat hapends my peeps say its not gona be good...
PLEASE IGNORE IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS
1. 1 person is seated for sure
2. Another is in the hot seat
3. The other hasn't gotten his turn yet
4. No one like the person in the hot seat except for Maliki
5. Parliament will break until the afternoon
Update:
1. The number 2 person is agreed on
*************************************************************************
Ok 2 calls in 2 calls back...my peeps are saying 100% 1 fore shure is seated.....one other is in the hot seat said he is being beat down like a card on a bicicle wheel...the other hasent got his turn yet....guess nobody likes him except M..wonder y.... o and ther slowing down ther tired little boys.....dude said that some are falling asleep wile there sitting there..he said it was said that if they got this guy seated they were gona break till the aftrenoon evening there today...there day...... My understanding is VOTED on....be back in a bit got to feed my self....
Update:
Ok here goes ...just in!!!!!!the number 2 is AGREED on and they taking a sleepy time..and gona seat when thy get back together..in the evening. ...that's what I got for now.... With info I'm given abot thing to transpier this weekend...I'm gona stick my neck out there and say.....wensday or Thursday afternoon here....leaning mor tword Thursday...because of the hours thing with the cbi needing to be shut down after the rv... so we know s has his " paper work" in to the world bank.we know atleast 1 is seatedfor shure 2 aproved to be seated later this afternoon there time we now M head is on the choping block.A has back up because he is a sissy...and he " steped down"..lolyea right...acording to my peeps.....id say depending on the protest. It will be intersting .....to see wat hapends my peeps say its not gona be good...
3-4-11 Nighthk11 11:20pm 3/3/11 Chat
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DV (membership required)
1. Night thinks that we will see Iraq calling for Maliki's dismissal
2. He sees them lining up to challenge him once and for all and will likely have Parliament behind them to get rid of him
3. We should hear something about the last position being filled
4. If we do not, he will be removed by force of arms
5. Night does not think that with all the prep that has been done this will cause a delay in the RV
6. If Maliki names the last ministers, they might keep him until he does something else
7. Night doesn't feel they can go another week without the RV given what has come out
8. Sadr, Hakim, and Allawi are planning much larger organized demonstrations now
9. They will be country-wide and there are also threats of shutting down oil production among other issues...so Maliki is really in a corner
10. The RV will be good for them and allow the three to get their stuff together
11. What is being said by Barzani, Allawi, Sadr, and Hakim is that Maliki lied and had no intention of adhering to the agreement and they are tired of his mess
12. The Kurds put the troops there around Kirkuk for a reason--may have something to do with security or they know what the three are planning
13. However their internal issues play out, there will be an RV
14. The troops in Kirkuk may have something to do with Art 140, which Maliki agreed to but has done nothing yet to see it done as promised
15. He believes that with the demonstrations taking place and those planned it will be enough for him to understand he must act
16. Maliki has been given too many chances and now it appears to be over with their patience of him
17. Night is looking for concrete action this week to finalize the government
18. From what he reads and sees, actions are being done to support Allawi, Sadr, and Hakim in their quest to dislodge Maliki from power
19. Parliament may just vote no confidence in his government
20. Night said there was some talk today about the US backing Maliki
21. His info states that Maliki is on his own after the mess with Kuwait and not adhering to the Barzani initiative, which Maliki signed
22. That initiative was approved by the US, UNSC, and the Secretary General
23. Maliki's agenda (most likely from Iran) has backfired
24. Allawi stepped out of the presidency of the National Council position to free himself up to become the PM, should they dismiss Maliki
25. The treasury and justice department are still in Iraq and will remain there until after the RV
26. Night considers the group that Allawi formed an alliance with very powerful because they have the backing of the people
27. Maliki is buying time with the RV
28. Night believes that they realize he will never keep his word and so they will get rid of him
29. The stage is being set for the showdown at Parliament
30. Allawi is backed by the Sunni's, the Emir of Kuwait, and the King of Saudi, who are all Sunnis
31. If the security position is not filled this weekend, they will ask for a vote next week
32. Sadr and Hakim are organizing and calling for huge demonstrations in all cities in the 18 provinces including the Kurd territory
33. They are also threatening to shut down all government facilities and mostly OIL PRODUCTION
34. The call for a vote will be instituted by a bloc within parliament. Then they will vote. If there is 2/3rd majority, Maliki will be done. 2/3rd is needed because he is the head of governemnt
35. Night was told that even Maliki's Dawa party are not happy with him as he has been found to be lying to them--most notably about his "escape plans"
36. If Allawi and his new group stir up the people enough, Parliament will not be able to ignore their calls for his removal
37. Even if Maliki RVs, it will likely not stop the calls for his removal
38. If Maliki is forced to step down, Talabani will have no choice except to give the nod to the next largest bloc, which will be the List headed by Allawi and he will form within 48 hours
39. Allawi cannot head the council and the PM
40. Right now, Night sees Allawi's move as pressure to get Maliki to fulfill his agreements and get things going
41. The 100 days is not 100 ... the DFI protection runs out in June and will not be extended
42. All in the GOI will not be replaced. The GOI is already formed but not complete
43. There are alternatives to replace those who leave or are dismissed
44. Due to the time factor we are seeing it is either make or break for Iraq
45. Religion is paramount in Iraq. Remember, Iran is a theocracy led by the Mullah's and Sadr aspires to take Sistani's place as the primary cleric in Iraq...another theocracy?
46. Night sees no other reason for Sadr's return and immediately stirring up trouble with Maliki as his focus. He thinks Iran has decided they cannot do what they want
47. Hakim also has strong ties to Iran
48. Things have gotten hot for Maliki and Night can see the RV....nothing else will buy Maliki time
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DV (membership required)
1. Night thinks that we will see Iraq calling for Maliki's dismissal
2. He sees them lining up to challenge him once and for all and will likely have Parliament behind them to get rid of him
3. We should hear something about the last position being filled
4. If we do not, he will be removed by force of arms
5. Night does not think that with all the prep that has been done this will cause a delay in the RV
6. If Maliki names the last ministers, they might keep him until he does something else
7. Night doesn't feel they can go another week without the RV given what has come out
8. Sadr, Hakim, and Allawi are planning much larger organized demonstrations now
9. They will be country-wide and there are also threats of shutting down oil production among other issues...so Maliki is really in a corner
10. The RV will be good for them and allow the three to get their stuff together
11. What is being said by Barzani, Allawi, Sadr, and Hakim is that Maliki lied and had no intention of adhering to the agreement and they are tired of his mess
12. The Kurds put the troops there around Kirkuk for a reason--may have something to do with security or they know what the three are planning
13. However their internal issues play out, there will be an RV
14. The troops in Kirkuk may have something to do with Art 140, which Maliki agreed to but has done nothing yet to see it done as promised
15. He believes that with the demonstrations taking place and those planned it will be enough for him to understand he must act
16. Maliki has been given too many chances and now it appears to be over with their patience of him
17. Night is looking for concrete action this week to finalize the government
18. From what he reads and sees, actions are being done to support Allawi, Sadr, and Hakim in their quest to dislodge Maliki from power
19. Parliament may just vote no confidence in his government
20. Night said there was some talk today about the US backing Maliki
21. His info states that Maliki is on his own after the mess with Kuwait and not adhering to the Barzani initiative, which Maliki signed
22. That initiative was approved by the US, UNSC, and the Secretary General
23. Maliki's agenda (most likely from Iran) has backfired
24. Allawi stepped out of the presidency of the National Council position to free himself up to become the PM, should they dismiss Maliki
25. The treasury and justice department are still in Iraq and will remain there until after the RV
26. Night considers the group that Allawi formed an alliance with very powerful because they have the backing of the people
27. Maliki is buying time with the RV
28. Night believes that they realize he will never keep his word and so they will get rid of him
29. The stage is being set for the showdown at Parliament
30. Allawi is backed by the Sunni's, the Emir of Kuwait, and the King of Saudi, who are all Sunnis
31. If the security position is not filled this weekend, they will ask for a vote next week
32. Sadr and Hakim are organizing and calling for huge demonstrations in all cities in the 18 provinces including the Kurd territory
33. They are also threatening to shut down all government facilities and mostly OIL PRODUCTION
34. The call for a vote will be instituted by a bloc within parliament. Then they will vote. If there is 2/3rd majority, Maliki will be done. 2/3rd is needed because he is the head of governemnt
35. Night was told that even Maliki's Dawa party are not happy with him as he has been found to be lying to them--most notably about his "escape plans"
36. If Allawi and his new group stir up the people enough, Parliament will not be able to ignore their calls for his removal
37. Even if Maliki RVs, it will likely not stop the calls for his removal
38. If Maliki is forced to step down, Talabani will have no choice except to give the nod to the next largest bloc, which will be the List headed by Allawi and he will form within 48 hours
39. Allawi cannot head the council and the PM
40. Right now, Night sees Allawi's move as pressure to get Maliki to fulfill his agreements and get things going
41. The 100 days is not 100 ... the DFI protection runs out in June and will not be extended
42. All in the GOI will not be replaced. The GOI is already formed but not complete
43. There are alternatives to replace those who leave or are dismissed
44. Due to the time factor we are seeing it is either make or break for Iraq
45. Religion is paramount in Iraq. Remember, Iran is a theocracy led by the Mullah's and Sadr aspires to take Sistani's place as the primary cleric in Iraq...another theocracy?
46. Night sees no other reason for Sadr's return and immediately stirring up trouble with Maliki as his focus. He thinks Iran has decided they cannot do what they want
47. Hakim also has strong ties to Iran
48. Things have gotten hot for Maliki and Night can see the RV....nothing else will buy Maliki time
3-4-11 Vice in Iraq: We look for a replacement for Allawi to head the Strategic Council
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. An MP for the List said they will list a person to choose a replacement for Allawi for the presidency of the National Council for strategic policies
2. He said they agreed on the composition and nature of the work, the structure, and its role in the political process under the Barzani initiatives
3. He added that the List is keen on the formation of this Council to undertake correcting past mistakes, whether at the level of government or parliament
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. An MP for the List said they will list a person to choose a replacement for Allawi for the presidency of the National Council for strategic policies
2. He said they agreed on the composition and nature of the work, the structure, and its role in the political process under the Barzani initiatives
3. He added that the List is keen on the formation of this Council to undertake correcting past mistakes, whether at the level of government or parliament
3-4-11 Commission on the implementation of Article 140:: a plan for the disbursement of compensation to the entrants and deportees in the budget year 2
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. A plan for the disbursement of compensation to the entrants and deportees is in the budget for 2011
2. The formation of a committee for the purpose of the preparation of special controls on how the inclusion of divorced women and widowed will be the decisions of the Commission
3. The Commission on the Implementation of Article 140 informed of the progress and performance of their offices and the Committee decided to conduct a visit to the offices to review the flaws in their work and the obstacles they face
4. The Committee discussed the topics on the agenda and took the necessary recommendations
5. They decided to pay compensation to farmers who had their contracts canceled under the decision of the Commission and the Commission's budget for the year 2011
6. The Committee also developed a plan for the disbursement of compensation to entrants and deportees in the 2011 budget and in all offices
7. They formed a committee for the purpose of preparing controls about how to include divorced and widowed women
8. The Commission also decided to form an ad hoc committee in Diwaniyah to cancel agricultural contracts covered by item 2 of the Resolution No. 7 of the Committee in all provinces in central and southern Iraq
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. A plan for the disbursement of compensation to the entrants and deportees is in the budget for 2011
2. The formation of a committee for the purpose of the preparation of special controls on how the inclusion of divorced women and widowed will be the decisions of the Commission
3. The Commission on the Implementation of Article 140 informed of the progress and performance of their offices and the Committee decided to conduct a visit to the offices to review the flaws in their work and the obstacles they face
4. The Committee discussed the topics on the agenda and took the necessary recommendations
5. They decided to pay compensation to farmers who had their contracts canceled under the decision of the Commission and the Commission's budget for the year 2011
6. The Committee also developed a plan for the disbursement of compensation to entrants and deportees in the 2011 budget and in all offices
7. They formed a committee for the purpose of preparing controls about how to include divorced and widowed women
8. The Commission also decided to form an ad hoc committee in Diwaniyah to cancel agricultural contracts covered by item 2 of the Resolution No. 7 of the Committee in all provinces in central and southern Iraq
3-4-11 Nijaifi, Kuwait’s Ambassador discuss Joint Committee’s work, outstanding issues
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Nujaifi discussed with Kuwait's Ambassador to discuss the relations between the two countries and the works of the Joint Committee formed to settle outstanding issues as well as the ongoing preparations for Nujaifi's upcoming visit to Kuwait, which was postponed because of events in Iraq
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Nujaifi discussed with Kuwait's Ambassador to discuss the relations between the two countries and the works of the Joint Committee formed to settle outstanding issues as well as the ongoing preparations for Nujaifi's upcoming visit to Kuwait, which was postponed because of events in Iraq
3-4-11 Hundreds demonstrate in Tahrir Square in central Baghdad to protest the government’s actions
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on TCN
1. Hundreds of citizens in Baghdad protested against poor services and demanded the elimination of corruption
2. They chanted slogans against the action taken by the Iraqi government to meet the demands of previous demonstrations
3. Baghdad Operations Command announced yesterday a curfew on cars, motorcycles, and bicycles in the capital of Baghdad, starting from midnight until further notice
4. Troops sealed off the security of all ports of entry and exit to the areas surrounding the green zone
5. It is expected that today will see massive demonstrations to demand better services and standards of living
6. Security forces imposed a curfew in the provinces of Nineveh, Diyala, Kirkuk, Babil, and Salaheddin
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on TCN
1. Hundreds of citizens in Baghdad protested against poor services and demanded the elimination of corruption
2. They chanted slogans against the action taken by the Iraqi government to meet the demands of previous demonstrations
3. Baghdad Operations Command announced yesterday a curfew on cars, motorcycles, and bicycles in the capital of Baghdad, starting from midnight until further notice
4. Troops sealed off the security of all ports of entry and exit to the areas surrounding the green zone
5. It is expected that today will see massive demonstrations to demand better services and standards of living
6. Security forces imposed a curfew in the provinces of Nineveh, Diyala, Kirkuk, Babil, and Salaheddin
3-4-11 Iraqi Oil Minister: OPEC could cover the shortfall in the production of Libya
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Allabi said the current global oil prices are acceptable and do not affect the global economy
2. He said that there is a concern that Libyan oil exports are limited and OPEC has spare production capacity beyond what is produced by Libya
3. He added that he did not expect a significant increase in oil prices in two or three weeks ahead as Saudi Arabia can pump more oil to put a ceiling on prices when necessary
4. He said that Iraq aimed to export more than 2.2 million barrels per day in March and is building new facilities for export bye 1.8 million barrels a day
5. Exports from Iraq in February were 2.202 million barrels per day, which is up from 2.16 million bpd in January, which was the highest since 2003
Go Iraq!
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Allabi said the current global oil prices are acceptable and do not affect the global economy
2. He said that there is a concern that Libyan oil exports are limited and OPEC has spare production capacity beyond what is produced by Libya
3. He added that he did not expect a significant increase in oil prices in two or three weeks ahead as Saudi Arabia can pump more oil to put a ceiling on prices when necessary
4. He said that Iraq aimed to export more than 2.2 million barrels per day in March and is building new facilities for export bye 1.8 million barrels a day
5. Exports from Iraq in February were 2.202 million barrels per day, which is up from 2.16 million bpd in January, which was the highest since 2003
Go Iraq!
Thursday, March 3, 2011
3-3-11 Recap of the day's event's/postings
Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. Today was an extremely busy news day, and unfortunately, I could not get to all the news that I wanted to due to my schedule. So I apologize about that. I will say more about this another time. Let’s start with Allawi. News reported that he did abandon the post for the presidency of the Supreme Council. He faults Maliki for procrastination and not implementing the agreements. While he won’t run for the presidency seat, he made it clear that the List will still participate in the government. Then, the news reported that hours after his announcement, Allawi met with Sadr. He then met with the Supreme Islamic Council to discuss activating agreements reached among different political parties. He reported that “they” want to activate the national partnership to respond to the people’s demands and to take a unified position in Parliament and government to satisfy the people. Also, the Sadr front threatened to stop supporting Maliki’s government if he keeps up with his weak performance and failures. They hinted they will ally with Allawi to form a parliamentary majority in case the government fails to provide the people with what they need. Finally, the National Alliance said that the Federal Council would be a suitable alternative for Allawi in the absence of him getting the presidency for the National Council. He said the Liberals from the Sadrist movement agree that it would be appropriate for Allawi to chair the Federal Council, which parallels the Presidency of the Council of Representatives. It was noted that the Iraqi constitution stipulates that the federal legislative power shall consist of the House and the Federal Council, which will be aimed at link the House with the provincial councils, but that the Council did not yet enact a law
2. In other news, Talabani and Maliki met to discuss politics in Iraq and the Arab regions and the need to complete the Cabinet for the security ministers. They also discussed the demonstrations and the need for government to meet the needs of the protester’s demands
3. The minister of Human Rights visted Iraq for the purpose of reviewing Iraq’s progress in a number of different areas. The minister expressed the hope to support Iraq’s efforts in the area of the missing Kuwaitis, and he noted that this is important in ending the procedures of Chapter 7 sanctions on Iraq
4. A media spokesman for the ministry of electricity said that they asked China to give them a soft loan for the establishment of a major project to provide energy. In return, Iraq would grant China the right to a large project to establish maintenance centers, the transfer of national power grids to air and ground to organize the distribution of power stations, distribution centers, and establishment of sophisticated communications
5. On the rumor front, Med said that Shabibi has been busy eliminating debt behind the scenes. He also suggested that a mini coup is taking place where the Sadrists and the Islamic Council are teaming up with the List to move the power from Maliki to Allawi. Ray talked with Ali about the ration cards and was told that a one time arrangement has been made that allows citizens to get three times their normal monthly rations. He also said that Parliament is looking at candidates again and will make an annoucement next week on who is selected, and they will vote on the HCL next week
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3. February – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies (not sure if this will happen now that Allawi stepped out)
4. February 25 -- Large demonstration
6. March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011
7. March 5 – Maliki may hand over the 3 security ministry candidates and Parliament may vote on them
8. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
9. May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
10. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
11. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. Yesterday, I rattled off a few options with regard to what I thought might happen with Allawi’s decision to not take the presidency of the National Council. Option 4, which was for Allawi to return, was my choice. I just didn’t think he’d return that quickly! He’s clearly not interested in taking the presidency seat for the National Council. Instead, it appears that he’s “activating” agreements made with other political blocks in an attempt to either put serious pressure on Maliki to do what he’s supposed to do, or he’s working with the other blocs to gain control over Maliki through Parliament and majority. The combination of the List, Sadrits, and the Supreme Islamic Council will mean that Allawi will control the majority in Parliament. Also, Nujaifi said recently that Parliament is the supreme authority. When you look at all that has happened recently, it is clear that Allawi negotiated these arrangements a while ago. He knew he would need a plan C if his earnest attempts to get Maliki to comply by getting Barzani’s and the US’ assistance failed. Plan C then, was to gain agreement with the Sadrists and the SIC. Then, we see Nujaifi’s statement about Parliament being the supreme authority. Nice setup. Allawi steps out, “activates” prior agreements with the Sadrist and SIC, and they publicly begin to put pressure on Maliki. The Sadrists threaten to leave Maliki’s party if the doesn’t meet the demands of the people. They publicly announce they activated their agreement to form a uniform party. Then, we see recommendations from the Sadrists and the National Alliance about Allawi being suitable for the chair of the Federal Council, which has equal powers to the Presidency of the Council of Representatives. Maliki knows what this all could mean for him, and I have to believe he’s not feeling real comfortable about what he’s seeing.
2. In other matters, Iraq is moving forward on many fronts, which will help them rebuild and grow their country. There is news about banking reform, news of them obtaining loans from China to expand their ability to provide more electricity to the citizens, news of Maliki asking the MOF to find ways of eliminating the debt of their citizens, news of them eliminating their non-Paris club debt, news of them setting up an international trust fund that will be used to fund the reconstruction efforts, and the approval of the IMF on the accession of Iraq to the general system for the dissemination of data. These are all good and necessary steps required to create a stable and strong economy
3. This weekend will be an interesting weekend. Maliki is supposed to hand over the 3 security ministries either Saturday or Sunday, and Parliament should be able to vote on them. Maliki has said this many times. So, all we can do at this point is wait to see if he actually does it. Allawi is out of the way for now. However, as mentioned above, Allawi, the Sadrists, and the SIC are likely applying even more pressure for Maliki to complete the government now that they’ve joined together and basically voiced their displeasure with Maliki’s performance and failures. But, that’s all about this weekend. Tomorrow being Friday should be a slow news day, but we’ll see
3-3-11 Skype chat: Update from Ray (PD)
Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS/OPINIONS
1. Ray talked with Ali
2. He asked about the ration cards that Joe P wanted to know about
3. Ali said Parliament fixed the problem last night
4. Iraqis will get a one time triple portion
5. Every person will get a card worth 250 dinar
6. They will take the card to the store and receive 3 times the normal portion of food items
7. A few months ago, there was a shortage of food items so the people were not able to get their monthly rations
8. This is a one time thing
9. He said Parliament is looking at candidates again and will make an announcement next week on who was selected
10. Parliament will also voting on various laws next week, including the HCL
11. He said Allawi made an announcement that he is supporting the current government 100$, and Ray thought this was huge news
*****************************************************************************
Steve,
Just got off the phone with Ali. Here is the latest he told me. I asked him about the ration cards that JoeP wanted to know about. Ali told me that Parliament fixed the problem last night. All the people will get a one time triple portion. He explained to me how it works. Every person gets a card with $250 dinar on it. This includes the children too. They take their card to the store and they receive so much rice, flour, oil and sugar. A few months ago there was a shortage of these food stuffs so people were not able to get their monthly rations. This month when they go to the store they will get three months of food instead of one month of food. As he said, this is a one time thing.
He also said that Parliament is looking at the candidates again and will make an announcement next week on who they selected. They are also going to be voting on various laws next week, including the oil and gas law. The money changer is hoping that they will announce the RV late next week.
In passing, he also said that Allawi made an announcement that he is supporting the current government 100%. I think this is huge news and he just said it in passing.
That is all for now. Will keep you and everyone posted when I hear more.
God Bless,
Ray
PLEASE IGNORE THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS/OPINIONS
1. Ray talked with Ali
2. He asked about the ration cards that Joe P wanted to know about
3. Ali said Parliament fixed the problem last night
4. Iraqis will get a one time triple portion
5. Every person will get a card worth 250 dinar
6. They will take the card to the store and receive 3 times the normal portion of food items
7. A few months ago, there was a shortage of food items so the people were not able to get their monthly rations
8. This is a one time thing
9. He said Parliament is looking at candidates again and will make an announcement next week on who was selected
10. Parliament will also voting on various laws next week, including the HCL
11. He said Allawi made an announcement that he is supporting the current government 100$, and Ray thought this was huge news
*****************************************************************************
Steve,
Just got off the phone with Ali. Here is the latest he told me. I asked him about the ration cards that JoeP wanted to know about. Ali told me that Parliament fixed the problem last night. All the people will get a one time triple portion. He explained to me how it works. Every person gets a card with $250 dinar on it. This includes the children too. They take their card to the store and they receive so much rice, flour, oil and sugar. A few months ago there was a shortage of these food stuffs so people were not able to get their monthly rations. This month when they go to the store they will get three months of food instead of one month of food. As he said, this is a one time thing.
He also said that Parliament is looking at the candidates again and will make an announcement next week on who they selected. They are also going to be voting on various laws next week, including the oil and gas law. The money changer is hoping that they will announce the RV late next week.
In passing, he also said that Allawi made an announcement that he is supporting the current government 100%. I think this is huge news and he just said it in passing.
That is all for now. Will keep you and everyone posted when I hear more.
God Bless,
Ray
3-3-11 Al-Iraqiya Leader, Iraq’s Supreme Islamic Council’s Chairman, Discuss Activation of Agreements Among Political Blocs
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The chairman of the supreme Iraqi islamic council (SIIC) and Allawi discussed the activation of the agreements reached among different Iraqi political parties
2. They want to activate the national partnership to respond to the people's demands
3. Both sides discussed the most important political issues in Iraq as well as the necessity to activate the agreements concluded among different Iraqi political parties
4. They want to activate the agreements to take a unified position in Parliament and government to satisfy the people
5. The agreed on the creation of a real partnership that will carry out its commitments towards their people and aimed at achieving their demands
6. Adel Abdul-Mahdi also attended the meeting
This article talks about Allawi confirming his support for Sadr's demands for services and demonstrations
Allawi is clearly not out of the picture. He may have bowed out of the presidency for the Council, but he's busy activating agreements with SIIC and Sadr in a likely attempt to gain control in Parliament. Recall that Parliament said just a few days back that they are the supreme authority. That means Maliki is not. If Allawi is successful in garnering support away from Maliki and gets majority backing in Parliament, he will be in control and Maliki will not. Game is not over I guess.
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The chairman of the supreme Iraqi islamic council (SIIC) and Allawi discussed the activation of the agreements reached among different Iraqi political parties
2. They want to activate the national partnership to respond to the people's demands
3. Both sides discussed the most important political issues in Iraq as well as the necessity to activate the agreements concluded among different Iraqi political parties
4. They want to activate the agreements to take a unified position in Parliament and government to satisfy the people
5. The agreed on the creation of a real partnership that will carry out its commitments towards their people and aimed at achieving their demands
6. Adel Abdul-Mahdi also attended the meeting
This article talks about Allawi confirming his support for Sadr's demands for services and demonstrations
Allawi is clearly not out of the picture. He may have bowed out of the presidency for the Council, but he's busy activating agreements with SIIC and Sadr in a likely attempt to gain control in Parliament. Recall that Parliament said just a few days back that they are the supreme authority. That means Maliki is not. If Allawi is successful in garnering support away from Maliki and gets majority backing in Parliament, he will be in control and Maliki will not. Game is not over I guess.
3-3-11 Iraq’s Electricity Minister asks China for soft loans to finance the energy project
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The media spokesman for the ministry of electricity said asked China to give them a soft loan for the establishment of a major project to provide energy
2. Last month, the ministry of electricity announced its intention to launch licensing rounds for investment in the electricity sector in the country
3. The project includes the establishment of maintenance centers and the transfer of national power grids to air and ground to organize the distribution of power stations, distribution centers, and the establishment of sophisticated communications
4. He explained that if the Chinese government approved, the project will estimate the proportion of the loan, and the project will be granted to Chinese companies
5. They are waiting for a response from China on the soft loan
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The media spokesman for the ministry of electricity said asked China to give them a soft loan for the establishment of a major project to provide energy
2. Last month, the ministry of electricity announced its intention to launch licensing rounds for investment in the electricity sector in the country
3. The project includes the establishment of maintenance centers and the transfer of national power grids to air and ground to organize the distribution of power stations, distribution centers, and the establishment of sophisticated communications
4. He explained that if the Chinese government approved, the project will estimate the proportion of the loan, and the project will be granted to Chinese companies
5. They are waiting for a response from China on the soft loan
3-3-11 Med Chats (2): Dinar Speculator 3/3/11 1:30 & 6am
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD
1. Interesting moves in the world of Iraqi politics
2. Most of were thinking Shabibi was not doing anything because the RV or removal of zeros has not hit the net in a while
3. Shabibi has been busy making deals with thousands of companies and individuals to pay off that debt internationally and to protect the assets abroad
4. It had to be no small task
5. Med was thinking the government was not the hold up
6. Now he is certain it is not
7. It looks like a mini political coup may be brewing against Maliki
8. The Sadrist (40 seats) and the Islamic Counsel (18 seats), and who are both part of the National Alliance, are not happy with Maliki
9. It looks like they are both making deals with the List to move the power from Maliki to Allawi
10. Med is not sure what else needs to be done to finish this
11. It might be implementing the free market or the things they are resolving now before the free market can be implemented
12. Time is on our side--not Maliki's
13. The fate of Maliki's government is in the fold and the economy has to move
14. The economy won't survive another year
15. Given the choice, they either move to a free market or flounder
16. Maliki gave them a timeline of 100 days
17. If his government does not produce the results, he will not see 101
18. Violations of constitutional rights will be his downfall
19. For government to be successful, they must provide power, water, jobs
20. USD is not allowed for use by the Iraqi people
21. Contractors on military bases are paid by the US Govt
22. If contractors are in Iraq for the Iraqi government, the government has USD to pay them
23. One issue many in Iraq are having with Shabibi is that he promised an RV in 2010
24. Many economist in Iraq are not happy he didn't give it
25. Now he says for sure in 2011; he said he was fine tuning things
26. Astro believes the hold up on the RV is procedural and not related to the 3 ministries
Chat 2
1. This thing with Allawi dumping the strategic counsel and mending fences with Sadr and with Hakim is piquing Med's curiosity
2. It's like Allawi didn't want the counsel. He wants the PM
3. The investigation going on could get serious and Med thinks it will hit the Daiwa party hard
4. Maliki is trying to control what is going on in the country by stopping twitter and facebook from being used
5. That is definitely a violation of the constitutional rights
6. Med does not see twitter and facebook helping Maliki
7. Maliki is backed into a corner and has half of Parliament against him
8. His countrymen are not calling for him to get the boot yet, but it is not far from going from a small fire to an inferno
9. The private sector and jobs will be the turning point
10. Med thinks they are in a real bind and they cannot get the water and electricity done in 100 days
11. If they tell the people they won't get things done in another year or two, that will put things over the top and there will be some type of major revolution
12. Could be by parliament or by major protests followed by a move by parliament against Maliki
13. If Shabibi is working on whatever is needed to ensure some type of success quickly in the private sector, stopping rising inflation, and moving to the free market, the dinar will have to change
14. Med believes that the move to the free market is not a long-term goal, but more about getting it done to settle debts and protect the assets abroad
15. This probably consumed all of Shabibi's time since December when he was told to start
16. Not much more to discuss as much is the same...unhappy people, discontent with the political scene, and their demands are the same
17. Parliament will be back in session and we will see what they do
18. If Parliament continues to postpone sessions, the people will not have confidence in Parliament and render them worthless
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD
1. Interesting moves in the world of Iraqi politics
2. Most of were thinking Shabibi was not doing anything because the RV or removal of zeros has not hit the net in a while
3. Shabibi has been busy making deals with thousands of companies and individuals to pay off that debt internationally and to protect the assets abroad
4. It had to be no small task
5. Med was thinking the government was not the hold up
6. Now he is certain it is not
7. It looks like a mini political coup may be brewing against Maliki
8. The Sadrist (40 seats) and the Islamic Counsel (18 seats), and who are both part of the National Alliance, are not happy with Maliki
9. It looks like they are both making deals with the List to move the power from Maliki to Allawi
10. Med is not sure what else needs to be done to finish this
11. It might be implementing the free market or the things they are resolving now before the free market can be implemented
12. Time is on our side--not Maliki's
13. The fate of Maliki's government is in the fold and the economy has to move
14. The economy won't survive another year
15. Given the choice, they either move to a free market or flounder
16. Maliki gave them a timeline of 100 days
17. If his government does not produce the results, he will not see 101
18. Violations of constitutional rights will be his downfall
19. For government to be successful, they must provide power, water, jobs
20. USD is not allowed for use by the Iraqi people
21. Contractors on military bases are paid by the US Govt
22. If contractors are in Iraq for the Iraqi government, the government has USD to pay them
23. One issue many in Iraq are having with Shabibi is that he promised an RV in 2010
24. Many economist in Iraq are not happy he didn't give it
25. Now he says for sure in 2011; he said he was fine tuning things
26. Astro believes the hold up on the RV is procedural and not related to the 3 ministries
Chat 2
1. This thing with Allawi dumping the strategic counsel and mending fences with Sadr and with Hakim is piquing Med's curiosity
2. It's like Allawi didn't want the counsel. He wants the PM
3. The investigation going on could get serious and Med thinks it will hit the Daiwa party hard
4. Maliki is trying to control what is going on in the country by stopping twitter and facebook from being used
5. That is definitely a violation of the constitutional rights
6. Med does not see twitter and facebook helping Maliki
7. Maliki is backed into a corner and has half of Parliament against him
8. His countrymen are not calling for him to get the boot yet, but it is not far from going from a small fire to an inferno
9. The private sector and jobs will be the turning point
10. Med thinks they are in a real bind and they cannot get the water and electricity done in 100 days
11. If they tell the people they won't get things done in another year or two, that will put things over the top and there will be some type of major revolution
12. Could be by parliament or by major protests followed by a move by parliament against Maliki
13. If Shabibi is working on whatever is needed to ensure some type of success quickly in the private sector, stopping rising inflation, and moving to the free market, the dinar will have to change
14. Med believes that the move to the free market is not a long-term goal, but more about getting it done to settle debts and protect the assets abroad
15. This probably consumed all of Shabibi's time since December when he was told to start
16. Not much more to discuss as much is the same...unhappy people, discontent with the political scene, and their demands are the same
17. Parliament will be back in session and we will see what they do
18. If Parliament continues to postpone sessions, the people will not have confidence in Parliament and render them worthless
3-3-11 Sadr Front threatens to ally with Allawi
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The Sadr front threatened to stop supporting Maliki's government if he keeps up with his weak performance and failures
2. They front even hinted they will ally with Allawi to form a parliamentary majority in case the government fails to provide the people with the needed services within the 6 month deadline Sadr set
3. The Sadr front believes the 6 month deadline is more realistic compared to the 100 day deadline set by Maliki
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The Sadr front threatened to stop supporting Maliki's government if he keeps up with his weak performance and failures
2. They front even hinted they will ally with Allawi to form a parliamentary majority in case the government fails to provide the people with the needed services within the 6 month deadline Sadr set
3. The Sadr front believes the 6 month deadline is more realistic compared to the 100 day deadline set by Maliki
3-3-11 National Alliance: a proper replacement for the Federal Council on Allawi Policy Council
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The head of the Alohraarvi Alttiaralsdri affiliated with the National Council said that Allawi abandon the presidency of the Council of strategic policies because he is convinced that the political blocs are not serious about enacting the Law of the Council
2. He said that the presidency of the Federal Council would be a suitable alternative for Allawi in the absence of the enactment of the Policy Board
3. He said the Board policies faced great difficulty for approval to enact the Law of the Council because there is no position like it in the Constitution
4. He said the Liberals from the Sadrist movement also agree that it would be appropriate for Allawi to chair the Federal Council which is parallel to the Presidency of the Council of Representatives
5. It was noted in the article that the Iraqi constitution stipulates that the federal legislative power shall consist of the House and the Federal Council, which will be aimed at linking the House of Representatives with the provincial councils in order to coordinate and resolve a lot of problems and outstanding issues, but that the Council did not enact a law so far
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The head of the Alohraarvi Alttiaralsdri affiliated with the National Council said that Allawi abandon the presidency of the Council of strategic policies because he is convinced that the political blocs are not serious about enacting the Law of the Council
2. He said that the presidency of the Federal Council would be a suitable alternative for Allawi in the absence of the enactment of the Policy Board
3. He said the Board policies faced great difficulty for approval to enact the Law of the Council because there is no position like it in the Constitution
4. He said the Liberals from the Sadrist movement also agree that it would be appropriate for Allawi to chair the Federal Council which is parallel to the Presidency of the Council of Representatives
5. It was noted in the article that the Iraqi constitution stipulates that the federal legislative power shall consist of the House and the Federal Council, which will be aimed at linking the House of Representatives with the provincial councils in order to coordinate and resolve a lot of problems and outstanding issues, but that the Council did not enact a law so far
3-3-11 Minister meets the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross and with him looking file missing Kuwaitis
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The minister of human rights visited Iraq for the purpose of reviewing progress in the area of prisoners, missing persons, liberty of the blind people, and cooperation in the draft of blind person's freedoms
2. The minister said he is prepared to cooperate with any international organization specializing in the area of prisons and detention centers and that Iraq will seek to complete legislative action on the agreement
3. He also expressed the hope to support Iraq's efforts in the area of the missing Kuwaitis
4. It was stated that #3 is important in ending the procedures of Chapter 7 sanctions on Iraq
5. He said it isn't logical to keep this file on hold forever since Iraq has been working on all of the capabilities of what is in the resolution of this file (Chapter 7)
Iraq continues its work on getting out of the remaining sanctions in Chapter 7. We see this with all the news relating to Kuwait as well as in this article.
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. The minister of human rights visited Iraq for the purpose of reviewing progress in the area of prisoners, missing persons, liberty of the blind people, and cooperation in the draft of blind person's freedoms
2. The minister said he is prepared to cooperate with any international organization specializing in the area of prisons and detention centers and that Iraq will seek to complete legislative action on the agreement
3. He also expressed the hope to support Iraq's efforts in the area of the missing Kuwaitis
4. It was stated that #3 is important in ending the procedures of Chapter 7 sanctions on Iraq
5. He said it isn't logical to keep this file on hold forever since Iraq has been working on all of the capabilities of what is in the resolution of this file (Chapter 7)
Iraq continues its work on getting out of the remaining sanctions in Chapter 7. We see this with all the news relating to Kuwait as well as in this article.
3-3-11 Talabani and Al-Maliki Confirmed Eligibility by Offering Services ... And Discuss the Security Crisis Ministries
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Maliki met with Talabani and discussed the political side in Iraq and Arab regions as well as the need to complete the Cabinet for the security minters
2. They also discussed the demonstrations and the need for government to meet the needs of the protester's demands
3. Talabani stressed the meeting was positive and addresse all issues concerning the political process in Iraq
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Maliki met with Talabani and discussed the political side in Iraq and Arab regions as well as the need to complete the Cabinet for the security minters
2. They also discussed the demonstrations and the need for government to meet the needs of the protester's demands
3. Talabani stressed the meeting was positive and addresse all issues concerning the political process in Iraq
3-3-11 Allawi announced he has abandoned the presidency of the Supreme Council policies
Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Allawi gave up the presidency of the National Council due to Maliki's procrastination on the related legislation and implementation of the agreements from Erbil
2. Allawi stressed that this does not mean the List will withdraw from the political process
3. Barzani's agreement stipulated that the legislation of the Law of the National Council was to be completed one month after the formation of the government, but that didn't happen
4. The media office of the National Accord movement, led by Allawi, confirmed that he did give up the presidency and that the MPs from the list will remain in their places to exert the oversight role of government work
5. The remainder of the article provided historical reference on this
Hours after Allawi backs out, he met with Sadr
Allawi seeks to build positive relations with the Sadrists, the SCIRI, and the Kurds
The news of Allawi building relations with the Sadrists, SCIRI, and the Kurds tells me he's not out for good. I wonder if he's just mustering up support for when Maliki's government fails? Remember that Allawi said without his involvement in government, he gives Maliki about 6 months before his government crumbles. One thing to note about Allawi is that his track record on dates is not too shabby.
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article
1. Allawi gave up the presidency of the National Council due to Maliki's procrastination on the related legislation and implementation of the agreements from Erbil
2. Allawi stressed that this does not mean the List will withdraw from the political process
3. Barzani's agreement stipulated that the legislation of the Law of the National Council was to be completed one month after the formation of the government, but that didn't happen
4. The media office of the National Accord movement, led by Allawi, confirmed that he did give up the presidency and that the MPs from the list will remain in their places to exert the oversight role of government work
5. The remainder of the article provided historical reference on this
Hours after Allawi backs out, he met with Sadr
Allawi seeks to build positive relations with the Sadrists, the SCIRI, and the Kurds
The news of Allawi building relations with the Sadrists, SCIRI, and the Kurds tells me he's not out for good. I wonder if he's just mustering up support for when Maliki's government fails? Remember that Allawi said without his involvement in government, he gives Maliki about 6 months before his government crumbles. One thing to note about Allawi is that his track record on dates is not too shabby.
3-2-11 CBI auction results
Currency Auctions
Announcement No. (1847)
The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 3-MAR-2011. The results were as follows:
| DETAILS | NOTES |
| Number of banks | 17 |
| Auction price selling dinar / US$ | 1170 |
| Auction price buying dinar / US$ | ----- |
| Amount sold at auction price (US$) | 156,289,000 |
| Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) | ----- |
| Total offers for buying (US$) | 156,289,000 |
| Total offers for selling (US$) | ----- |
Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
3-2-11 Recap of the day's event's/postings
Facts:
5. Maysoon al-: al-Maliki and his advisors and the law of the National Council of dragging their heels
12. Maliki: Everyone must respect the election; Continue the process of construction and reconstruction.
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1. None
Where Are We At?
1. In government formation news today, Allawi said he will not participate in the national council and that his decision is final. In other news, it was reported that Allawi asked Maliki for a new round of negotiations regarding the security ministries. However, this news is somewhat offset by other news where it was reported that The List and the state of law are not in agreement over where the vote for the forming the National Council should be held. The news also reported a difference between the two parties on the decision of de-Bathification in the election of the presidency. The state of law wants to abolish the decision while The List wants to implement the decisions before the formation of the new government. In other news, it was reported by someone close to Allawi that Maliki and his office are dragging their heels on the legislation related to the National Council. However, a member of the Liberal bloc of the Sadrist movement brought up Sistani’s statement where he says the government should not develop non-essentional positions, including Allawi’s National Council. The president of the Islamic Supreme Council, al-Hakim met with Allawi and discussed the necessity of activating the agreements concluded by the political parties, national partnerships, and the demands of the people. In other related news, an MP said there is a real crisis between all parties as well as within each party because there is conflict and conflicting views causing confusion. The confusion is that most of the blocs are facing a situation where there is a dual between participation of power and the demands of the streets. The article mentioned that Allawi was warned not to implicate himself in the Council because it has no powers
2. In reform news, Parliament agreed to give Maliki the power to dismiss any minister who fails to perform their duties. Also, Parliament today agreed to approve the implementation of foreign companies to assist with infrastructure projects costing $70 billion. It was said that earlier Parliament denied the request in their previous session, but today they approved it. In other news, Maliki spoke of the government’s responsibility in rebuilding and reconstructions, and in meeting the demands of the citizens
3. Regarding the Arab summit, it was reported that it will be postponed until May
4. Concerning the investment law, a member of the economic investment commission said the investment law in force is good, but has problems related to its implementation and how it deals with investors. The problems were reported as being related to security and administrative corruption as well as the administrative system
5. In other news, parliament will meet this Saturday to discuss a range of political issues and parliamentary elections
6. Concerning rumors, Frank asserted that Maliki gave the green light to Shabibi, who is supposed to start the currency and economic reform ASAP. He says there is no way they can release 30% of the budget to the ministers with the 1170 rate. He also talked about inflation jumping up and suggested that an RV rate of $3+ would help. Med suggested that news these days is boring. He said that Iraq seems to be sitting around waiting for a miracle and that their main problem is that they don’t have qualified people running the government. He doesn’t see why they are holding up the RV
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3. February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
4. February 25 -- Large demonstration
6. March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011
7. March 5 – Maliki may hand over the 3 security ministry candidates and Parliament may vote on them
8. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
9. May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
10. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
11. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. On the subject of Allawi stepping out, I find it interesting that a search about this news consistently brings up the same article with the exact same text. Perhaps only one article was distributed from one news agency and everyone is just reposting that news? Rather odd to me. In any case, there are undoubtedly numerous possibilities as to what can happen at this point. A few that come to mind are: 1) Allawi backs out and the List chooses another person; 2) Maliki’s government crumbles because there is not enough support in Parliament. Parliament issues a vote of no confidence and they start over; 3) Maliki and his camp leverages Sistani’s statements about Allawi’s National Council being non-essential and eliminates it altogether and carries on running the government in his current capacity; 4) This move by Allawi is just like all his others … it’s not real and he’ll return possibly due to outside pressure (i.e., the UN just announced all parties need to participate in the government). Given Allawi’s record, I’ll opt for 4 first. If that fails, then my pick is 3. Given where things stand with the unrest in the Middle East, I don’t think anyone, including the Iraqi government, could stomach seeing their government crumble and having to start over again. The Iraqi people wouldn’t stand for and we can probably guess what would happen if they felt it would take another year or more for a government to be formed while their basic needs go unmet. Actually, I think that’s all I want to say about the government formation tonight! The rest of the related news wasn’t too positive and tonight I don’t feel like discussing what’s been in the news about the Maliki and Allawi over and over again! There’s nothing new there
2. Parliament meets this Saturday and one of the items on the agenda is parliamentary elections. They say they are to discuss parliamentary elections. However, Maliki is supposed to hand over the 3 security ministries in the next Parliamentary meeting and Parliament is supposed to vote. So, will they be discussing parliamentary elections, or will they be voting? Perhaps a discussion of parliamentary elections is related to the early elections? I’m hoping for a vote!
3. In regards to rumors, I spoke too soon this morning when I said I agreed with Med that news was boring. Today was somewhat of a weird news day, but it wasn’t boring! Allawi’s news sure did throw things off for me. But, I’m hoping it all works out in the end despite that news. My belief is that Allawi is not a good leader and that Iraq is probably better off without him. He travels too much, doesn’t fight hard enough, and quits too easily. I sure wouldn’t want a leader like that. Maliki isn’t my favorite guy, but he’s shrewd and if Allawi did throw in the towel, Maliki sure did play his cards right….right up to the end just the way he may have foreseen it playing out if he just withheld on forming the government. In any case, I’m hoping that Frank’s information is correct and that the RV has been set in motion. If true, it could mean that we see the RV in a matter of days, but most likely after the vote on the 3 ministries
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)