Facts:
3. Iraqi authorities seek to calm public anger; First thousand kilowatts of electricity free to Iraqis
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1. None
Where Are We At?
1. Not much news today, but it’s a Friday. In government news, Allawi said he is at a crossroads with Maliki regarding his Ministry of Defense position. A source in the List said that they failed to settle on the Ministry of Defense and are at crossroads on the non-implementation of related agreements.
2. Regarding the budget, Nujaifi met with the heads of the political blocs and the Finance Committee to resolve the financial budget, and he said the budget will go to vote this Sunday. The members of Parliament present in the meeting all agreed on the need to approve the budget on Sunday. They also agreed to support the ration card budget of 1 trillion dinar, which they already voted on today.
3. In other news, a number of Iraqi government experts and advisers and the Deputy US Treasury Department engaged in a joint technical cooperation in the field of economics, money, and energy. The head of the advisers to the Iraqi government said they are focused on the financial and banking sector as well as strengthening the role of the private banks, which they said are highly necessary in the current stage and the next stages. He also said the government is moving forward in the process of transition towards a market economy.
4. Concerning the Arab summit, Libya mentioned that the summit would be postponed, but Iraq news today reported that Secretary-General of the League of Arab States said it did not receive any formal request to change the date of the summit. It is still scheduled for 3/29-3/30
5. Iraqi politicians were reported to be nervous of the anti-government protest happening across the Middle-East. A Middle East analyst from HIS said that the steps taken by the GOI recently reveals they are nervous. He also said that Maliki is paranoid about the situation because he realizes he won the PM spot for a second term primarily through cunningness, stubbornness, and with the help of Tehran
6. The GOI affirmed today that it is working to join the WTO. They stressed the necessity of building up Iraq’s economy by encouraging investment, organizing trade, setting the general budget and ratifying the oil and gas law
7. On the rumor front, the banking news is back. There were two confirmations of Steve I’s information regarding the pre-announcement of the RV in Iraq. One of the confirmations came from Night, who said he was informed of the same. Topguner reported that a friend in his group went to a Wells Fargo where the bank manager reported they just received a De La Rue machine and confirmed they increased their reserves by a factor of 3 to 4 times their normal amount. He said they were told a big change was coming, but he didn’t know when. Butch provided an update and essentially targeted the RV for this Sunday, but said the cash in would come shortly after Sunday. He said the bank rate will be 5+ and the CBI rate will be 6+.
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget
3. February (but sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
4. February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
5. February 25 -- Large demonstration online
6. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
7. May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies
8. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
9. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. Beginning with the GCC meetings, I’ve seen nothing yet that says Iraq attended any GCC meetings. Maybe this is because news is a few days late for us? Not sure, but one thing is certain, they haven’t yet announced an RV to the world. It was rumored that Iraq would surely want to RV prior to the GCC meeting. Perhaps they did RV and haven’t announced it yet? Also, perhaps they’ve met with the GCC and we just haven’t heard the news yet? I guess we’ll just have to wait another day or two to see if any news of the GCC meeting surfaces
2. Regarding the government formation and today’s news of Allawi complaining about being in a crossroads with Maliki over the Defense Ministry and the related agreements, you would think those two don’t read the news, talk to anyone, or venture out of the comforts of their homes. If they did any of those things, I don’t think they’d be putting out news right now that might incite even more violence from the protestors—especially since we are nearing the 2/25 date. On 2/25, it is being reported that there will be a huge mass of protestors (up to a million is what I’ve heard). That’s a lot of people any way you look at it. I sure wouldn’t want to give them anything to be upset about right now. I certainly wouldn’t want them to think they’re a long way off from seeing a government formed and a budget passed. Yet, we see today’s news saying that Maliki and Allawi still can’t work together. Amazing!
3. On a brighter note, it does appear that the budget will be approved on Sunday. Given yesterday’s news, it wasn’t as clear. But today’s news made it very clear the budget will be voted on this Sunday. The next thing that is needed is a full government, if it doesn’t come on Saturday when Maliki may hand over the names of the 3 security ministries.
4. The other good news of the day is related to Iraq and Kuwait’s improving relationship. The re-opening of embassies is a pretty big deal. This to me is just another confirmation they have reached agreement on the outstanding issues. Also, the news of Iraq affirming it plans to join the WTO is good news. Remember, Iraq must close the gap between their currency and the USD in order to become a full member of the WTO. The news about the Deputy US Treasury meetings is also good stuff. Why would a country that has no plans of improving their economic situation be engaged in efforts to strengthen their financial and economic sectors? Iraq has big plans to make a LOT of money in various non-oil sectors. They cannot progress very far with a currency that isn’t globally traded and has very little value. But not to worry! Today’s article said the government is moving forward in the process of transitioning towards a market economy that will include an agricultural and private sector. Market economy…..another good reason to revalue and have a global currency. Still not convinced? Why would any company (private sector) want to invest in Iraq when their currency isn’t worth much and isn’t globally accepted? They won’t, but they are today. Why would they do this? They know what is about to happen.
