Facts:
5. Maysoon al-: al-Maliki and his advisors and the law of the National Council of dragging their heels
12. Maliki: Everyone must respect the election; Continue the process of construction and reconstruction.
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1. None
Where Are We At?
1. In government formation news today, Allawi said he will not participate in the national council and that his decision is final. In other news, it was reported that Allawi asked Maliki for a new round of negotiations regarding the security ministries. However, this news is somewhat offset by other news where it was reported that The List and the state of law are not in agreement over where the vote for the forming the National Council should be held. The news also reported a difference between the two parties on the decision of de-Bathification in the election of the presidency. The state of law wants to abolish the decision while The List wants to implement the decisions before the formation of the new government. In other news, it was reported by someone close to Allawi that Maliki and his office are dragging their heels on the legislation related to the National Council. However, a member of the Liberal bloc of the Sadrist movement brought up Sistani’s statement where he says the government should not develop non-essentional positions, including Allawi’s National Council. The president of the Islamic Supreme Council, al-Hakim met with Allawi and discussed the necessity of activating the agreements concluded by the political parties, national partnerships, and the demands of the people. In other related news, an MP said there is a real crisis between all parties as well as within each party because there is conflict and conflicting views causing confusion. The confusion is that most of the blocs are facing a situation where there is a dual between participation of power and the demands of the streets. The article mentioned that Allawi was warned not to implicate himself in the Council because it has no powers
2. In reform news, Parliament agreed to give Maliki the power to dismiss any minister who fails to perform their duties. Also, Parliament today agreed to approve the implementation of foreign companies to assist with infrastructure projects costing $70 billion. It was said that earlier Parliament denied the request in their previous session, but today they approved it. In other news, Maliki spoke of the government’s responsibility in rebuilding and reconstructions, and in meeting the demands of the citizens
3. Regarding the Arab summit, it was reported that it will be postponed until May
4. Concerning the investment law, a member of the economic investment commission said the investment law in force is good, but has problems related to its implementation and how it deals with investors. The problems were reported as being related to security and administrative corruption as well as the administrative system
5. In other news, parliament will meet this Saturday to discuss a range of political issues and parliamentary elections
6. Concerning rumors, Frank asserted that Maliki gave the green light to Shabibi, who is supposed to start the currency and economic reform ASAP. He says there is no way they can release 30% of the budget to the ministers with the 1170 rate. He also talked about inflation jumping up and suggested that an RV rate of $3+ would help. Med suggested that news these days is boring. He said that Iraq seems to be sitting around waiting for a miracle and that their main problem is that they don’t have qualified people running the government. He doesn’t see why they are holding up the RV
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3. February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
4. February 25 -- Large demonstration
6. March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011
7. March 5 – Maliki may hand over the 3 security ministry candidates and Parliament may vote on them
8. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
9. May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
10. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
11. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. On the subject of Allawi stepping out, I find it interesting that a search about this news consistently brings up the same article with the exact same text. Perhaps only one article was distributed from one news agency and everyone is just reposting that news? Rather odd to me. In any case, there are undoubtedly numerous possibilities as to what can happen at this point. A few that come to mind are: 1) Allawi backs out and the List chooses another person; 2) Maliki’s government crumbles because there is not enough support in Parliament. Parliament issues a vote of no confidence and they start over; 3) Maliki and his camp leverages Sistani’s statements about Allawi’s National Council being non-essential and eliminates it altogether and carries on running the government in his current capacity; 4) This move by Allawi is just like all his others … it’s not real and he’ll return possibly due to outside pressure (i.e., the UN just announced all parties need to participate in the government). Given Allawi’s record, I’ll opt for 4 first. If that fails, then my pick is 3. Given where things stand with the unrest in the Middle East, I don’t think anyone, including the Iraqi government, could stomach seeing their government crumble and having to start over again. The Iraqi people wouldn’t stand for and we can probably guess what would happen if they felt it would take another year or more for a government to be formed while their basic needs go unmet. Actually, I think that’s all I want to say about the government formation tonight! The rest of the related news wasn’t too positive and tonight I don’t feel like discussing what’s been in the news about the Maliki and Allawi over and over again! There’s nothing new there
2. Parliament meets this Saturday and one of the items on the agenda is parliamentary elections. They say they are to discuss parliamentary elections. However, Maliki is supposed to hand over the 3 security ministries in the next Parliamentary meeting and Parliament is supposed to vote. So, will they be discussing parliamentary elections, or will they be voting? Perhaps a discussion of parliamentary elections is related to the early elections? I’m hoping for a vote!
3. In regards to rumors, I spoke too soon this morning when I said I agreed with Med that news was boring. Today was somewhat of a weird news day, but it wasn’t boring! Allawi’s news sure did throw things off for me. But, I’m hoping it all works out in the end despite that news. My belief is that Allawi is not a good leader and that Iraq is probably better off without him. He travels too much, doesn’t fight hard enough, and quits too easily. I sure wouldn’t want a leader like that. Maliki isn’t my favorite guy, but he’s shrewd and if Allawi did throw in the towel, Maliki sure did play his cards right….right up to the end just the way he may have foreseen it playing out if he just withheld on forming the government. In any case, I’m hoping that Frank’s information is correct and that the RV has been set in motion. If true, it could mean that we see the RV in a matter of days, but most likely after the vote on the 3 ministries
