Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1. None
Where Are We At?
1. In government formation news, the Kurds and the National Alliance agreed that the vote on the National Council of the Supreme policies will go to the House this Saturday. That said, there were at least two articles on this today. The second article said the law would go to Parliament next week and didn’t specify a day. In other news, the List called on Maliki to speed up the nomination of the security ministers. The spokesman from the List warned that Iraq is sliding into a dangerous situation in light of low level of services and the weakness in security.
2. Speaking of low level of services, protests are still occurring. In fact, there were protests yesterday that were lead by lawyers and numbered in the 3,000. The protests were held throughout Iraq. An article today said that the protests in Egypt are inspiring anti-government demonstration in the streets of Iraq.
3. The Supreme Judicial Council said they didn’t receive any request from the House to clarify the Federal Court ruling!
4. Following the vote on the National Council, another article stated that the HCL would be voted on!
5. Lots of rumors today. Five of the rumors suggested an RV is imminent and were somewhat similar in nature. The other rumor was more of a confirmation of past rumors.
What’s left?
1. Reading of the budget for the third time
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 12 – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
2. February 13 – 3rd reading of the budget
3. February 17 – GCC Meeting
4. February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
5. February 25 -- Large demonstration online
6. March 6 – Tariff law goes into effect
7. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
8. May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies
9. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
10. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. In government news, the big news of the day has to be the news of the vote on the National Council of the Supreme Policies going to Parliament this Saturday (assuming it does go on this day). What this means is that Allawi’s new role will have executive powers. More importantly, it should mean that Allawi will preside over Maliki, and Allawi’s role will not be relegated to an adviser role only role to Maliki. Maliki fought long and hard on this one, but he clearly did not win this battle. This leaves Maliki with only one thing of true power, the security ministries. Keep in mind, however, Allawi’s bloc is entitled to the Defense ministry per the Erbil agreements. But, I’m sure Maliki will do what he can to try to retain power of the security ministries, which control the armed forces. Without the control of the security ministries, Maliki has nothing of significance to control. The other piece of news that goes hand-in-hand with the vote on the National Council is the HCL. The HCL is supposed to be approved right after the vote on the National Council. Now if Maliki would just hand over the names of all the vacant ministries on Saturday, they’d have a full government just in time for ratification of the budget on Sunday! We can only hope.
2. Today’s news seems to suggest big things are converging towards this weekend, and this lines up with the rumors we saw today. Maliki has said in previous articles that filling the vacant ministries would not be an issue. He said all he has to do is go to Parliament with the names and he’ll be done. We’ve heard that he has the names from news articles, but he just hasn’t announced who will fill the seats. We’ve heard that Biden gave him the names for the security ministries, but we haven’t seen him announce them. We also know that other blocs have handed over names for the security ministries, and we’ve seen Maliki reject them. I have to believe he has enough nominations and knows who can be slotted into the vacant ministries. It is, as he said, just a matter of walking into Parliament and handing over the names. Will he do that this weekend? I’m sure he could, and I hope he does. As I mentioned earlier, the news we have seems to suggest that this weekend could see a lot of big things happen. What could happen? The vote on the National Council in Parliament effectively establishing Allawi as the head and giving oversight powers above Maliki, a vote on the the HCL, and a vote on the budget. But, to ratify the budget, we need a full government. So, perhaps we’ll see Maliki walk into Parliament with all the names. It could all happen, and the good news is that it’s not too far fetched. But, the question is will it all happen. The rumors suggest everything is done and that we’ll see an RV anytime. This does line up well with what appears to be going on in the news. Whether we’ll see the RV this weekend or not, the news we’re seeing is really good and seems to suggests they are acting with a sense of urgency in everything they’re doing. We can’t be too far away from the RV.
