1-21-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.      Maliki & Allawi meet again to resolve the crisis Policy Council and Security Bags

2.      Vice President presented his remarks: Finance committee on federal budget

3.      Barzani meets British Amb on federal government formation

4.      Talabani will determine who is 1^st and 2^nd VP

5.      Security Council Nineveh areas of conflict and stresses time to resolve differences

6.      Hashimi confirms agreement to manager the security file

7.      Maliki rejects interference file cabinet security

8.      Likely rise in goods during the week

9.      Maliki rejected a candidate from the List

10.  Inquiries for delaying naming major ministers

11.  Iraqi Cabinet cancels the powers of Maliki

12.  Iraq declares concern over fate of Policy Council

13.  Joe P’s info on Forex

14.  Milndollarbabe, Mstork, and Topguner chat

15.  Chat on changes in Forex

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.      Purtting global settlements connection down

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.      Nighthk11 chat

2.      BB&T rumor

3.      Okie Oil Man chat

4.      Forex rumor

Where Are We At?

1.      For me, today was all about the Forex.  When I got started, I could see people chattering about what had happened, and what was still happening with the Forex.  So, what did happen?  The IQD was fluctuating or updating far more than it normally does in a day.  Normally, the IQD value will only change from 1 – 3 times per day.  However, it was said that last night it was changing every minute.  You can look at the charts from last night to see the changes.  Not only was the value fluctuating, but the time stamp for the last update was the same on multiple sites.  That hasn’t happened before.  By the way, if you’re wondering why 13 – 15 are in the Facts section as opposed to being in the Rumors section, it is because it is a fact that the rates for the IQD are actually fluctuating.  I realize that there is some speculation in some of the related chats, but I am treating all of these as fact since it can be proven it is happening now.

2.      On the government formation front, the good news is that we can still see they are definitely working on government formation issues.  Barzani is continuing to work towards resolving issues so that he can complete his mission of completing the government formation.  On the flip side, much of the news today regarding the government formation was about their inability to fill the open ministry positions.  MPs are expressing deep concern over the reasons why the government hasn’t yet been formed, and initiating formal inquiries.  While Allawi and Maliki have met to resolve the open positions, it does not appear that any progress has been made as the issues and positions are still open.

3.      There was an article that mentioned that prices of goods and services would increase due to the import tax, and that the consumer would bear the burden of the increases.  Also, in almost all of the articles where it was discussed that there is no resolution to the open security positions, there was mention of escalating violence in the streets. 

What’s Left?

1. Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).
2. Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI

What’s It All Mean?

1.      I’ll start with Forex since that is how my day started.  What could this mean?  It could just mean that they are doing additional testing.  We’ve seen pings before.  Maybe this is the next step in testing where they are testing coordinated pings across multiple Forex site to ensure they are updating simultaneously?  Maybe all of the Forex sites that were showing the same time stamps are using the same service for displaying current rates?  They don’t all subscribe to the same service.  Whatever the case may be, this is the first time this has happened in the time I’ve been in this investment, which has been years.

2.      Regarding the rise in consumer prices of goods and services, I’m not sure how consumers can absorb price increases.  Many of the people there are living in pretty severe poverty.  Even with smartcards loaded with 250 Dinar, consumers would not be able to purchase much prior to the increases.  The increases, of course, only make this situation worse.  So, what can the people do?  They can demonstrate and voice their dissatisfaction with the government, and that is exactly what is happening.  Sadr is organizing peaceful demonstrations and will continue to do so until the people can significantly rise above poverty.  The violence and demonstrations will continue to put pressure on the government to form quickly.  They cannot have violence and demonstrations during the Arab Economic Summit.  The worse the violence and demonstrations become, I am sure the more reluctant the Arab nations will become regarding coming to Baghdad for the summit.

3.      #2 above is a good lead in for the government formation discussion.  As I mentioned earlier, there was a lot of talk about MPs wanting to initiate formal inquiries into why the government hasn’t yet been formed.  This is likely happening due to the pressures of what is happening on the streets in terms of demonstration and the escalating violence, and because they truly are running out of time before the economic summit.  The GOI could be trying to prevent another Tunisia situation in Iraq. We could also be witnessing the MPs throwing Maliki a more than mild hint that they will give him a vote of no confidence if he does not form the government sooner rather than later.