Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. Big news for today definitely has to be Maliki’s announcement in a public forum that he will hand over the 3 security ministry candidates to Parliament at their first meeting in the next week. He also said they will vote on them. In that same announcment, he also talked about the reforms the government will make to address corruption as well as their plans for the addressing the resolution of the municipal councils of the districts and areas the demonstrators complained about. Finally, Maliki stated that the Arab summit will be held in Baghdad and there is nothing to prevent it. However, he also said that the matter is subject to the decisions of the Arab Foreign Ministers. In related news, the Arab Foreign Ministers are scheduled to meet tomorrow. On this topic, Maliki also said that he doesn’t mind if the decision is made to postpone the Arab summit as long as it is held in Baghdad where he said it is secure and stable compared to surrounding Arab countries
2. In economic news, it was reported today by the CBI that Iraq’s core inflation accelerated to 5.3% mainly due to the new price of electricity. Also, it was reported that higher oil prices will add 8 billion dollars to Iraq’s budget and that they will likely use the monies for more service projects across the country. It was reported that oil reached $108.31 per barrel last week
3. Regarding ration cards, the Baghdad governor confirmed they will pay the ration card within days. He said approximately 7.214 mil people will receive a total of 108,223,000 dinar
4. In more reform news, Maliki launced new reforms to upgrade the living standards of Iraq as well as to eradicate corruption. He stated in a press conference that every minister should be held accountable for corruption and that he is willing to dismiss any minister who doesn’t cut it after the 100 day deadline he gave his Cabinet recently
5. Concerning protests, it was reported that there will be another demonstration this Friday in Najaf. The civil society organization called for peaceful protests in order to voice their demands to serve the interest of the people
6. On the rumor front, Night gave a long chat today regarding the state of where we are today as well as his thoughts on what the ruling elite’s plans for world is. He still feels the RV will happen this week and he warned that the dollar will devalue and we will experience high inflation. Steve provided an update regarding the banks. They are still holding large reserves, and his BoA branch manager said it is costly for them to do that but they were told to hold the reserves until further notified. Frank from PD (not Frank26) reported that the green light was given to authorities at the CBI to go ahead and execute the plan. No date and rate was given, but he said it could go today or tomorrow. He said Maliki ordered the RV to be executed, or for the plan to be activated
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3. February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
4. February 25 -- Large demonstration
6. March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011
7. March 5 – Maliki may hand over the 3 security ministry candidates and Parliament may vote on them
8. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
9. May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
10. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
11. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. In government formation news, if Maliki hands over the names of the 3 security ministries in the next Parliament meeting, and they vote on them, they can complete the government. Is that enough for Shabibi? I hope so, but the question really is what does Shabibi define as a “seated government”? Remember, Shabibi said he would “RV” directly after the government is seated. That said, rumors have it that Maliki gave the order to Shabibi to execute the RV as soon as possible. Perhaps we’ll see the RV “directly” after the GOI is seated just as Shabibi said a while ago. In either case, Shabibi recently said he would adjust the exchange rate to fit the budget. So, we’re not too far away one way or another. I have to imagine that the increase in inflation won’t sit well with demonstrators. It will just add to their frustrations, and since the government is in the mood to appease the demonstrators these days, what better way is there to address this problem than giving them significantly more purchasing power?!
2. Speaking of the government responding to protesters demands, that news still seems to be pretty prevalent these days. The obvious impact is that much of the government’s time is being spent on addressing the concerns of the people, or that is the appearance given what we’re seeing in the news. This is also likely the reason why we’re not seeing a lot of “normal” news, but if they are addressing the people’s needs, that’s a good thing. They definitely deserve to have their basic needs addressed
3. Regarding rumors, Delta and Rich Queen seem to be saying the same things. Delta said that Maliki gave the order, and Rich Queen said the point of no return has been passed. The end result is that both are expecting to see an RV shortly. This news combined with the fact that the banks are trained in the dinar, holding high reserves, and are waiting for the dinar to revalue sure does sound good! All we need is for one person to be right regarding the RV, and I don’t really care who ends up being right! ;)
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