Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. They CBI auctions returned to normal…drats!
2. On the government formation front, there really isn’t any change even though there were meetings yesterday. We still have Maliki standing firm and supporting the Federal Court ruling, and we still have blocs speaking out against the ruling. Further, Maliki and his bloc are still not in agreement with what to do with the National Council and Allawi. Maliki’s bloc doesn’t want Allawi to preside over Maliki, and they do not want the vote on the National Council to be held in Parliement. Allawi’s party, of course, wants just the opposite. In fact, yesterday we saw Allawi saying he would retreat from all political agreements if the vote on the National Council isn’t held in Parliament. With regard to CBI and the Federal Court ruling, we’re still seeing push back from the CBI. There was an article where a legal advisor to the government said the move would not affect the economic policy of the country. So, we’re still seeing both sides dig in. However, Melkert, from the UN, is asking the GOI to respect the Federal Court decision and focus on the next stage, which is economic recovery. Lastly, there was an article that said that Maliki signed a document with Allawi and Barzani on the formation of the Council. It also said that the issue of the National Council would not be resolved without naming the security ministries, which hasn’t been completed. The same article said the security ministries would be named within 2 weeks.
3. News of the budget wasn’t too much of a surprise for me given the news of some parties having oppositin to it as well as the fact that they haven’t reviewed the prior year’s financials. Today’s news on the budget spoke of Parliament deciding at the last minute not to read the budget for a 2nd time. Also, there was a proposal to redraft the budget and allow the House 15 days to review the draft, read it (3 times), and then vote on it.
4. On the rumor front, the banking rumors here in the US still seem to be consistent. No change. Just more rumors coming in from people who are talking with their own banks. There is a rumor out there that suggests that Iraq must RV/RI prior to the oil flowing in the Kurdistan region, which was rumored to be on 2/2. However, there was an article today that said that the oil will not resume flowing this week.
5. An MP from the List today said that the Arab summit should be postponed due to the events in Egypt.
What’s left?
1. Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft proposal).
2. Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
What’s It All Mean?
1. A smart person told me never to confuse motion with productivity. Nowhere is this more evident than in Iraq right?! I love how we keep seeing everyday that Maliki and Allawi will be meeting in 24 hours. Joking aside, and on a more serious note, I’m focused on what is happening with the disagreements regarding Allawi’s new position. If Allawi’s position is marginalized, it doesn’t achieve what it was supposed to do to begin with, which was place a check and balance over Maliki’s Prime Minister position. Maliki and the National Alliance came out today clearly showing that they do not want Allawi having oversight over Maliki. If Maliki gets his way, it could cause Allawi to pull out of the government. On the other hand, Night says this exact scenario may force an RV/RI sooner rather than later. If Allaw pulls out, Maliki’s government will crumble because he will not have enough support with Allawi leaving. This will force a situation where Maliki will have to be removed as he cannot form a government without Allawi. Perhaps a vote of no confidence would be issued thereby removing Maliki and placing Allawi in his spot. If this were to happen, Allawi has said he could form his government within 3 days. He has also made the RV a priority. So it is reasonable to expect we would see the RV/RI rather immediately.
It was interesting to me to see the UN’s response to the Federal Court’s decision. They asked the GOI to respect the Court’s decision thereby throwing their support behind Maliki. I believe Frank has been saying that the US/UN haven’t really spoken out against Maliki, even though you would expect them to do this. Are they (UN/US) supporting Maliki? If so, this would run counter to Night’s thinking that the UN/US/”Powers that be” want Maliki out as he is the cause of this problem. I haven’t seen much push back from the US. It will be interesting to see how this play out from the perspective of whether it goes as Night suggests, or whether it plays out as Frank thinks it might. Recall that Frank thinks that Maliki took control of the CBI because he wants the RV done right away, but the GOI has been a roadblock. Maliki, in a sense and according to Frank, is actually the good guy. I’m going to get a big bag of popcorn and watch!
2. Regarding the budget, there were a couple of articles that suggested the budget wouldn’t be completed until the end of the month. Not much we can do on this one but watch the related news.
3. Night’s information pretty remains the same. He is waiting for something to happen to Maliki. Whatever that may be, it should set the stage for a more immediate RV/RI. Also, Night believes that escalating unrest in the streets will speed up the RV/RI—especially if it causes a vote of no confidence in Maliki and his government. The rumors of the US bank remain consistent. It's encouraging. Consistency is good, but they have been wrong many times before. Let’s hope they get it right this time.
4. Regarding the RV/RI, besides the government formation being a trigger or driver, the Arab summit was thought to be a driver for the RV/RI in that Iraq would need to RV/RI prior to the summit. If it gets pushed out, and if it is true they must RV/RI prior to the summit, the delay could give Iraq more time. Unfortunately, we know what they do when they have more time. They take all of it and add more time. If Iraq was supposed to RV/RI prior to the oil exports resuming in the Kurdistan region, they now have more time since it was reported that the oil exports in that region will not resume this week.
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