Monday, February 21, 2011

2-21-11 Med chats (2): Dinar Speculator 2/21/11

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMOR

For longer chats, I'm only going to highlight the statements of importance.

1. There will be no announcement this week
2. It's great the budget passed, but there is no GOI
3. A currency is only as strong as the government that backs it
4. Something has to happen that makes the Iraqi people say ok that is what we are looking for and we will accept it and work with you
5. What is bad is that Allawi and Maliki had good meetings followed by good news
6. Then, as usual, someone breaks the agreement
7. This is no longer a normal situation in Iraq
8. The entitled are no longer untouchable
9. Governments are no longer safe and the people will not wait
10. Maliki will be the fall guy if others do not get onboard
11. Med thinks Maliki's next move will depend on the feedback they get regarding the upcoming demonstration
12. If it's a thunderstorm, he may change
13. If it's an Egyptian Tsunami, then he may move on it
14. The people don't believe much of what is said in their news
15. Med believes Maliki is out of time
16. He thinks he won't get a vote of no confidence, but the demonstrations could get so ugly he will be forced out
17. The one thing that is good is that despite all the problems with the government, Shabibi kept the dinar stable
18. On where we are at, Med thinks that Maliki is a death row inmate and Friday is his day of execution
19. He is looking for a call from the governor to give him a stay of execution
20. Med has no clue what would stop the mass demonstration
21. Med does not think they can come out with an RV under the current situation, but he believes they can come out around Saudia Arabia ($.30) and make it work
22. Then, they can let the market move it as confidence grows
23. Med thinks there is a possibility of an RV in mid-March

Med's morning chat:
1. Med thought that Zebari should have gone to Kuwait instead of Maliki
2. He thought it was strange Maliki was going to negotiate the Kuwaiti compensation files
3. Now we know why Maliki went, and this is a major blow to him
4. If there is no civil disobedience, he has to answer for this to Parliament and to the people of Iraq
5. How do you face your country as a leader when you were planning your escape?
6. The good news is that some were angry over it, but the decision by Nujaifi to close parliament was a stroke of genius
7. The reason is because it removes them from the past 5 years under Maliki
8. Sending the MPs to meet with the people they represent to know the immediate needs and not stopping social benefits for Maliki and Talabani
9. Some parliament members will also march with the demonstrators
10. Med sees that Shabibi wants things to move now and wants the private sector funding now to get things moving
11. Med is happy about Obama rejecting Maliki's request for an urgent meeting
12. Med is infers that Obama said,"You didn't listen and our patience wore out on you. You made your bed. Now lie in it"
13. We are not abandoning Iraq...not in the least
14. If we were, we would not have met with the economic reform committees

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