1-18-11 Recap from the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.       Kurds threaten to file suit regarding budget

2.       Committees elected but leaders undecided

3.       24^th session discusses 2^nd budget reading

4.       CBI Auction results

5.       Allawi and Maliki to meet to resolve issues of the Supreme Council

6.       House decides to view budget for 2^nd reading

7.       Iraq is looking for ways to speed up resolution to Kuwait issues

8.       Kurds will prepare report asking for budget to be redrafted

9.       Security ministries will be resolved prior to Arab Summit

10.   Parliament split on ministries and budget

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.       GET Conference Call

2.       Homeland security

3.       Nightk11 chat from last night

4.       Okie chat 1

5.       Okie chat 2

6.       Okie and TK call tonight

7.       Scooter chat

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.       Skype chat rumor from yesterday

2.       TK chat

3.        Bank rumor

4.       Bank rumor 2

5.       China holds the cards

Where Are We At?

1.       Gee.  If I could sum today’s news up, I’d say it was confusing!  First we saw that the 2^nd reading might have taken place.  Then we saw that it did take place, which I thought was great.  But, the Kurds stole the show today with their knockout punches to the draft budget.   The confusion did not stop here, however.  There is now discussion/confusion over whether the ministry positions plus the budget will be voted on as one.  To top it all off, there was an article that couldn’t be more confusing which described that Parliament will be on break starting on the 1/26.  They will reconvene sessions on the 30^th. 

2.       As it relates to the National Security positions, we are still holding out for nominations and votes.  There was more news of the security positions being completed by the time the Arab Summit takes place.

3.       In the rumor mill, we still have people making assertions that the rumors about the RV happening in the ME are true.  I still see people in chat say they are not.  On a brighter note, Night believes that the budget does not need to be completed before the RV.  He also says that the vacant seats have been decided upon during Biden’s visit.  According to Night, we just need to see them finalize the government and we should see the RV/RI immediately.  Okie believes that we should see the RV/RI anytime.  Finally, there was one rumor about China causing the RV/RI holdup.  According to the poster, the US and China must resolve the inflation issues.  Once both parties agree, we should see the RV/RI.
4.   Recently, I heard that Iraq was not at fault for the delays.  If you look at the notes on global settlements, and 1 and 2 above, there is a common theme.....delays. Global settlements were delayed.  Iraq's government continues to be delayed.  The budget is delayed.  Everything is delayed and for reasons that don't make much sense.  Often, we say that's smoke just as I am suggesting in 1 above.  We'll know shortly if the global settlements is truly the cause of all these strange delays.

What’s left?

1. Reading of the budget for the second time.
2. Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (7)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Announcement of agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of Chapter 7
6. RV/RI

What’s It All Mean?

1.       The Kurds were really flexing their muscles today.  What puzzles me is that if they are the ones who are in control of this, how in the world did they let themselves get into this position where the budget is concerned?  How does that happen?  Hmmmmm….they either were very negligent, or maybe this is all just smoke?  Food for thought. 

2.       Regarding the rates of exchange, the only thing I’ve seen is what Scooter said today.  He mentioned that OANDA changed the IQD to float because of the SDR changes, which caused changes to pairings in Forex.  I haven’t had the opportunity to verify if the new rates are being displayed.  But, Scooter speaks in the past tense.  Perhaps they have changed.

3.       With regards to the RV/RI, the fact of the matter is that we don’t have a formal government, and we don’t have a finalized budget.  Yet, we have lots of rumors or expectations about an RV/RI any day.  The rumors haven’t changed much.  There’s always tomorrow, and we always seem to find another reason why the RV/RI didn’t happen along with what else must be done before it does.  Today, I discovered yet another reason why the RV has been delayed: Global Settlements.  I’ve been hearing this now for weeks, but I never took the time to understand it and how it is related to the RV.  After listening to a lady who works with global settlements through the firm responsible for devising the master plan, I now know the linkage.  It’s actually pretty simple.  When the global settlements go out, the RV for 19 different countries must happen.  Why must they happen?  They must happen because it is all a part of re-balancing the countries around the world that will be impacted by the global settlements.  This topic is too vast to document in a short summary.  I suggest you read the notes from the call posted here. 
4.   If global settlements is truly the cause of all these hard to explain delays related to Iraq's government formation and budget, we'll find out soon enough.  I hope this all comes to an end soon.