2-3-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.       CBI auction results

2.       Iraqi List: Strategic Policy Council law yet to be signed; Pressure by USA and President of Kurdistan to sign

3.       Iraqi Parliament holds session convenes to discuss Independent Commission’s situation

4.       Talabani calls for clarification in federal court ruling on independent bodies

5.       Amendment of the Constitution and a law of the Federal Court has become a necessity and legal

6.       Washington is betting on the ability of Nujaifi curb the influence of al-Maliki

7.       Karim Sinjari new head of Iraqi intelligence

8.       Source: National Alliance meet to choose a speaker and a Chalabi, the favorite of the Ministry of Interior

9.       Legal Adviser reveals a mechanism to compensate Kuwait and affected foreigners from the former regime

10.   News of Joe Biden's 7th visit is old - Biden not in Iraq

11.   Source: al-Maliki to submit Ngeevi afternoon the names of candidates for the ministries managed proxy

12.   Maliki, Nujaifi agree to form committee to activate Barzani agreement; Candidates of three ministries to be announced at next parliament meeting

13.   National Alliance deputy blames rising oil prices for budget delay

14.   Parliament adjourns session until Saturday

15.   Three shot as Iraqis protest power, food shortages

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.       Steve1 Update – Skype chat

2.       Rumor – budget done…everything done

3.       MTT update – from conference call

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.       RV Rumor - update from yesterday's posting

Where Are We At?

1.       CBI auctions are high again.  We need it to be low, or have no auctions at all.

2.       In government formation news, the US and the Kurds are applying pressure to get Maliki to approve the Law Council of Strategic Policy.  In related news, and later in the day, Maliki called on Nujaifi agreed to form a committee to implement Barzani’s initiatives.  Speaking of Nujaifi, the US has invited him to DC to discuss government formation.  It was mentioned in the article that Nujaifi is the only person they trust to influence Maliki.  Regarding the issue over the Federal Court decision, we’re still seeing news of Parliament having discussion on this topic.  We also saw Talabani call for clarification on the ruling, and an adviser of the List saying that amending the constitution is necessary.  One of the security ministry positions was filled today.  Karim Sinjari was selected to be the new head of Iraqi Intelligence.  Also, Chalabi was nominated by the National Alliance for the post of the Interior Minister.  Finally, it was reported that Maliki will present the names of the candidates for the ministerial positions that are currently managed by proxy.  There are 6 positions managed by proxy.  In that same article, it was said he will also resolve the security ministries in the coming days.  The next Parliament meeting is Saturday.

3.       The news of Biden visiting Baghdad unexpectedly is actually old news.   I put it in here to let everyone know that Biden isn’t in Baghdad as the article said.  The article that was posted today is exactly the same as the article posted in the middle of January.

4.       In budget news, there was a report that the budget was delayed because of the rising oil prices.  One article showed how much dinar a barrel of oil is worth.  It showed 14 dinar for a barrel that is worth $73 USD.  That equates to $5.21.

5.       There was news today of police firing shots into a crowd of 1,000 protestors.  3 people were injured.  The people were protesting the lack of services and food.

6.       On the rumor front, many of the sites are saying that the government is formed.  There are predictions for an RV tomorrow and Monday or later.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the third time (assuming it is not already done).

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

What’s It All Mean?

1.       In terms of where we stand with the government formation, the news today was good.  Probably better than good.  They filled one of the critical security ministries.  It was rumored that if they can fill the interior and national defense ministries, this would be enough for Shabibi to pull the trigger.  We still have one more to go.  That said, Maliki is supposed to fill the 6 vacant ministries this Saturday.  He is also supposed to resolve the remaining security positions “in the coming days”.  Let’s hope the latter means by this weekend.  The pressure from the US and Barzani should help speed things up.  Also, the pressure from the escalating violence in the streets from protesters should send a clear message to Iraq that Iraqis are restless just like the Egyptions and Tunisians.  They better move fast.  Lastly, it was interesting to me to note that the US invited Nujaifi to DC because they are essentionally impressed with thim and trust him.  Then, we see that Maliki agrees with Nujaifi to form a committee to implement Barzani’s initiatives.  Good sign.  Let’s hope Nujaifi is just as stern and effective with Maliki as he is with slacking members of Parliament.

2.       Not too much budget news today, but what we did see was interesting.  The 14 dinar per barrel rate equated to $5.21 USD when compared against the $73 / barrel rate.  Will the $5.21 rate be the rate we see at RV?  That remains to be seen.  Nevertheless, very interesting.  I’ll keep hoping!

3.       It’s interesting to see that so many Dinar sites are saying that everything is done.  What’s interesting to me is that the budget news and the government news seemed to go from making progress to making great strides and just about there (all of this within a very short period of time, which happens to coincide with the rumors of everything being done).  Coincidence?  I hope not.  Another observation is that we clearly do not have the RV yet, and we don't have a government or the budget completed.  I mentioned before that as the days go by without all of these things done, it becomes more evident to me that the government and the budget must be done before we see the RV.  Well, the good news is that both seem to be very close to being done as evidenced by the news we are reading.