2-20-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     CBI auction results

2.     Barzani happy: security a fundamental pillar of democracy and economic progress

3.     Finance Committee: the federal budget does not include financial allocations for the Policy Board

4.     Government calls on Parliament to address the financial for the launch of appointments

5.     Adjournment due to delay of the Finance Committee

6.     Witness confirmed the Kuwaiti newspaper on the existence of a deal between Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki

7.     Source for Iyad Allawi Rejects Presidency of the National Council of Strategic Policies

8.     Differences within the House of Representatives about the allocation of funds for the Peshmerga from the current year budget

9.     UPDATE 1-Iraqi lawmakers pass 2011 budget of $82.6 bln

10.  Meeting of the National Security Council this evening

11.  Iraq List Invites the Government to Implement Its Government After Ratification of the Budget

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Ray Post: Peoples Dinar 2/20/11

2.     Viper1 Rumor: Peoples Dinar 2/20/11

3.     Steve1 Post: Peoples Dinar 2/20/11

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     Skype chat - Okie Oil Man rumor

2.     Athena Update 2/20/11

Where Are We At?

1.     Of course, the big news of today is that Parliament approved the budget!  There were plenty of articles today that referenced the budget and its details, but the most important thing for us is that it was approved and that’s all I want to say about the budget!

2.     In government formation news, a parliamentary source said that Allawi refused to take the Presidency of the Council position after the political blocs decided to convert the vote on the policy board to one that is outside of parliament.  The source said Allawi hadn’t yet released a formal announcement.  Lastly, the List invited the GOI to implement its government after the budget is ratified

3.     In other news, Barzani said the delays in the implementation of Article 140 may expose the social ladder to danger and cause extensive damage to the people of the areas.  He said there are opportunistic terrorist parties who seized the opportunity to not solve the outstanding political problems in the areas in order to create chaos and spread fear.   Regarding Kuwait, a member of the International Red Cross said the Kuwait government made a deal with Maliki during his visit to their country.  He said the deal was to bring down the Iraqi debt to Kuwait in exchange for the inclusion of the stateless Iraqis to the Iraqi people.

4.     Regarding rumors,  Okie said that he was told Shabibi would adjust the exchange rate to reflect the new budget numbers.  Ray’s contact told him that they will vote on the 3 ministries tomorrow.  Steve said Ray’s contact was in the meeting with the Treasury and MOF.  In the meeting, it was said that if the budget was passed and the 3 security positions were filled and voted on, the MOF would be authorized to activate the RV within 24-48 hours.  Viper said that Maliki put out a statement saying all non-diplomats are not allowed to come back into Iraq.  This applied not only to DOD workers but the oil industry workers as well.  He said that top level people from a company and congress have been in talks with the Ambassador and Vice Ambassador for the past 2 days trying to work this out.  More information will be forthcoming

What’s left?

1.    Vote on budget - Done!

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)

3.    Formal announcement of government

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.     February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)

2.     February 20 – Vote on budget : Done!

3.     February (but sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 

4.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

5.     February 25  -- Large demonstration online

6.     March 29-30 – Arab Summit

7.     May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies

8.     May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

9.     June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.     Beginning with the government formation information, if Allawi truly does resign, it could slow things down for us as there would need to be a pretty big shuffle in the cabinet as well as the political blocs.  On the other hand, Night has suggested that something like this may help speed things up.  That said, we appear to be very close.  So, a shakeup like this could only delay it further in my opinion.  Let’s hope that the rumors about Maliki and Allawi being in agreement is true

2.      In terms of rumors, it’s interesting that Okie received the information about Shabibi adjusting the exchange rate.  That is exactly what Shabibi said he would do in a recent article.  Concerning Ray’s information, we’ll see shortly whether his source is correct on the vote for the 3 security ministries.  Recall from yesterday’s news that Allawi was not happy about the possibility of Maliki not accepting his candidate for the Defense Ministry.  So, we’ll have to see how the events unfold tomorrow as it relates to the 3 security ministries.  I’m not sure what to make of Viper’s information.  The timeframe of 24-48 hours is a pretty tight window to get the 3 ministries voted on and to give a minimum of 24 hours for the MOF to RV.  Iraq, as we know, isn’t good at doing things quickly.  But, I suppose there’s always a first time!  Let’s hope!