Facts:
13. Sabah al-Saadi: Maliki intends to build devices belonging to him before naming security ministries
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. In government formation news, the National Alliance said that the leaders of the political blocs are discussing the 3 security positions. The article stated that 80% of them agree on the 2nd candidate and 60% do not agree on a 4th candidate. The 1st and 3rd candidate was not discussed. In the same article, it was mentioned that Maliki said yesterday that he will announce the names of the 3 candidates in the next few days. In other news, it was reported that Maliki and Allawi met with Barzani, and he telephoned James Jeffrey into the call. They discussed Barzani’s agreement and the related issues as well as the political situation in Iraq. Barzani told Maliki to complete what was agreed upon regarding the National Council as well as the security ministries. The article stated that since the Jeffrey was in the meeting, the US was insistent on the implementation of partnership agreements between Allawi and Maliki. In a related artcile, the List said that Allawi would take office as the President of the Supreme Council after the Arab summit. Finally, the National Alliance said that the nomination of the candidates for the ministries of security is the highest priority. He said that the National Council vote and the submission of the security ministers are linked. He explaned this is why there is a delay on selecting the security ministries. Regarding the vote on the 3 presidencies, the List is still saying they will not vote on the proposal for a fourth VP. They believe that the National Alliance should give up the 3rd VP (they have 2 VPs) and allow the 3rd position to go to the Turkman.
2. There was a lot of budget news today. Today is the 15th, but we didn’t see news of the budget passing as they promised. Instead, the Kurdish bloc said they are interested and serious about passing the budget this week. He noted they were supposed to pass the budget today, but the House did not finish discussing it yesterday due to the lack of a quorum. Also, the Economic Committee said they will end the writing of the final report of the budget today. There will be new amendments related to the distribution of the financial allocations in the investment budget to the provinces producing oil. The VP of the Finance Committtee said they amended a number of items contained in the budget and will present it at the next meeting. There were amendments to salaries and reductions in the operating expenses. A senior source reported that Maliki agreed with Saleh on the number of points that were preventing the Kurdistan Alliance from voting on the budget. Lastly, a member of the National Coalition said that parliament will remain in session without interruption until they vote on the budget Thursday (17th).
3. Today’s news confirmed that the tariffs are postponed indefinitely
4. The Ministry of Planning and Development said the average inflation rate rose by 2% in the previous month. He cited the reason for the increase is due to higher rental rates and higher food prices (imported foods).
5. In Kuwaiti news, Maliki’s meeting with Kuwait is confirmed and set for the 15th. They will be discussing the files that are stuck, including those on security, economy, border demarcation, debt, and compensation. An MP from the National Alliance said that Maliki’s visit was scheduled for last month, but maybe was postponed due to the work involved with filling the ministries, which he said this would contribute significantly to solving the outstanding issues between the 2 countries.
6. On the rumor front, there were a number of rumors, but I only had a chance to report on 2. One confirmed that there were cash outs earlier and suggested something big was about to happen. Then, Okie reported that great things are going to happen this week according to what he was told. Blaino discussed a major US bank sending a memo out saying that they needed to prepare for significant cash transactions within 48 hours of Monday.
What’s left?
1. Reading of the budget for the third time
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (1) – Please note yesterday’s post incorrectly reported (6) instead of (1). The correct number is 1. There are 4 positions in total that remain to be filled.
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February (on/after Tuesday, but sometime this week) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
2. February 15 – Maliki meets with Kuwait
3. February 16 – 3rd reading of the budget
4. February 17 – Vote on the budget
5. February 17 – GCC Meeting
6. February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
7. February 25 -- Large demonstration online
8. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
9. May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies
10. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
11. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. Things continue to move forward as it relates to the government formation. Maliki and Allawi are finally working together and moving things forward. There is definitely outside pressure from the US to force both to implement Barzani’s agreements as evidenced by Jeffrey being involved in their meetings, and Barzani seems to be stepping up by telling Maliki to basically “get it all done”. What is interesting is the news about Maliki’s visit to Kuwait. The interesting part is what the MP said about Maliki’s first visit being delayed because the ministries were not filled. Furthermore, he states that filling the ministries would go a long way to solving the outstanding issues between the 2 countries. If I interpret that correctly, it might mean that they filled the ministry positions. Otherwise, why not reschedule the Wednesday meeting since the filling of the ministries seemed to be a priority for Kuwait? Another way to look at it might be to suggest that Kuwait told Maliki to have a full government before you come to Kuwait to talk about getting out of Chapter 7 etc. Maybe? Why would a complete government go a long way to resolving the outstanding issues with Kuwait? Maybe $23 billion owed to them? Having a government might suggest they can RV/RI. It would certainly give Kuwait far more confidence about Iraq’s ability to repay them with real money.
2. Regarding the issues related to the National Council, it was mentioned in the article today that the delays on the National Council were the cause of the delays on the security ministries. As we saw today, Barzani told Maliki to implement what was agreed in Barzani’s agreement. That includes the National Council and the ministry positions. Yesterday’s news said that there would be a vote on a draft law on the National Council in the next session. Tomorrow is that “next session”.
3. The news of inflation is going to cause a stir amongst the protesters. I’m sure they already know about it, but Iraqi news is now acknowledging it. All the cutting of salaries etc. isn’t going to help if the Iraqi’s don’t get what they need now. This is just going to create more pressure on the GOI to form sooner rather than later.
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