2-12-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     Iraqi List: Maliki refused to confirm that the three candidates for the ministries within one week

2.     Iraqi reveal the main points of dispute which was resolved by the Council on strategic

3.     Kurdistan: Kurds need U.S. support for the implementation of constitutional article 140

4.     Maliki Might Resort to Parliament to Choose Cabinet Security

5.     The Supreme Council is expected the emergence of a new dictator in Iraq after the restoration of security and political situation

6.     Iraq: Less than 48 hours and parliament votes on candidates vacant ministries

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Athena Rumor: Peoples Dinar 2/11/11

2.     Topguner Chat: DV (Private Site) 2/12/11 12:45am

3.     Kar Post: One Dinar 2/12/11 (GOI Complete BEFORE RV… w/ Links)

4.     PD rumor

5.     PD: Eagle update

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     None

Where Are We At?

1.     In government news, an article stated the Maliki rejected 3 of the List’s candidates for the ministries within one week.  On the Council, the List said the controversial points have been resolved between the List and the political blocs.  He said Parliament will vote on the Law of the Council after the budget is approved.  Also, there was an article where it was stated the Supreme Council said they would rather side with the people than allow the emergence of a dictator in Iraq.  In other news, the National Alliance reported that Maliki would defer to the House on choosing the security ministers, if there is no agreement between the political blocs.  Finally, the List reported that there would be a vote on the non-security related ministries within 48 hours.

2.     On the rumor front, Athena explained the cause of the delays for the RV, explained the steps of the RV, and said we are now just waiting on the last step to finish.  Topguner is receiving intel telling him that everything is done and that we should see the RV anytime.  Then, from PD, there was a Wells Fargo rumor where the banker stated she received a call saying that WF branches will exchange dinar and that they are ready for us.  Finally, Eagle provided excerpts from an email from a high ranking military friend.  His military friend confirmed a number of things and said that outside pressures will make the government formation happen

3.     There was an article today where the Kurds stated that they need US assistance in implementing Article 140

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the first time (due to redraft).

2.    Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.     February (after budget approval) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies    

2.     February 15 – 3rd reading of the budget

3.     February 16-17 – GCC Meeting

4.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

5.     February 25  -- Large demonstration online

6.     March 6 – Tariff law goes into effect

7.     March 29-30 – Arab Summit

8.     May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies

9.     May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

10.  June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.     The government formation news was really good today!  While there is still news out there about Maliki or Allawi essentially not getting along, or Allawi threatening to leave the government, I remain focused on the fact that they intend to vote on the Council polices after the approval of the budget. The budget will be approved on Tuesday.  In yesterday’s summary, I noted that I am no longer concerned about the Council policies.  The reason is because they intend to vote on it and they mentioned that a couple days ago.  This told me they resolved all of the issues.  However, we are only now seeing the articles saying that they did resolve all the issues related to the Council policies.  News for us is days late!  They are moving and completing what they need to in order to complete the government.  It’s great seeing all of this news.  How about that article about them filling the non-security ministries within 48 hours?  The next few days are definitely going to be interesting to watch.  Let’s see if they really try to finish everything up they need to in order to go into the GCC meeting strong…a full government with a globally traded currency.

2.     The rumor information is still pretty consistent.  Everyone seems to think that the RV will happen within the week.  Is this because there are important dates that are coming up this week and we’re seeing people line up “intel” against the dates?  Or, is it because the intel everyone is receiving is actually right?  I hope they are receiving valid intel, and I hope we see the RV within a week’s time as they are suggesting.  If not, we can look at the events in the news and feel comfortable that the government will be formed shortly.  We can also see that they are working on Article 140/HCL.  Given the articles that state Shabibi will “RV” directly after the government is formed, it is reasonable to expect we’ll see the RV shortly after the formation of the government.  If you need a reminder on such articles, read Kar’s post.