2-11-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     House of Representatives is determined to approve the budget next Tuesday

2.     House of Representatives plans to transfer assignments from door to door in the budget as approved

3.     Protestors head to green zone to stage sit-in

4.     Council policies will be presented to parliament next week

5.     KRG oil exports will resume soon, amid controversy about the contracts

6.     Maliki Agree on a Candidate, "Kurdistan" to Fill the Bag and the Ministry of Commerce

7.     $$Parliament Will Vote Sunday on Three Candidates for Posts of Vice-President of the Republic

8.     Deputy: Kurds Undecided on the Security Positions

9.     Meeting between Maliki, Allawi, soon … And refers to attempts to evade initiative Barzani

10.  Maliki Calls for the Transfer of Discussions on the Policy Board of Parliament

11.  Ismail thanked confirms intention Barzani visit Baghdad to resolve differences

12.  $$$ Confirm the Resolution of the Kurdish Intelligence Service, the Presidency Officially $$$

13.  Abdel Mahdi Talks With Barzani, in Erbil's Update

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Notes from Frank's call

2.     PD rumor - Wall Street on RV

3.     Chaplin Lindsy Williams on Voices of Wisdom

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     Skype chat – Okie Oil Man chat

Where Are We At?

1.     Somewhat of a busy news day for a Friday!  In government news, however, there wasn’t a lot.  First, Maliki agreed on the Kurdistan candidate for the ministry of commerce, and the Kurds provided the names of the candidates for the post of prime intelligence.  On Sunday, the House will vote on the three candidates for the post of VP of the Republic.  They will also review a report on the possibility adding a fourth VP for the Turkmen.  In regards to the Council policies, a second article has come out saying it will go to Parliament next week.  However, there was an article that stated Barzani might make a visit to Baghdad to resolve differences on a government formation issues, including the National Council policy.  That said, the article said he would only go if needed.  Also, Mahdi met with Barzani yesterday to discuss the latest developments in the political, security, and economic arena.  They agreed there is a need to close the gaps on development issues, unemployment, and services.  They also agreed on the fact that the GOI needs to fill the vacant ministries (all) promptly.  Lastly, an article came out that said Maliki and Allawi are scheduled to meet next week to discuss the formation of the National Council policy and the selection of candidates to fill the security ministries.

2.     In budget news, articles said that the budget would be approved on Tuesday.  There was also an article discussing amendments to the budget and the idea that the House will not allow for budget modifications.  They will only approve what they agreed to approve….the amendments. 

3.     In miscellaneous news, it was reported that the KRG oil exports will resume soon.  The same article clarified that confusion over what Sharistani said regarding Maliki’s perspective on the agreements.

4.     The protests continue, and more are planned. 

5.     In rumors, Frank has an Iraqi Supreme Court Judge contact that provided information to Frank’s team.  He is also saying that Maliki must do this by Sunday, or he will be facing a vote of no confidence.  There was a rumor from a reported top brass Wall Street employee who works with RVs worldwide.  He basically said it will happen.  Okie said the delay was caused because of a failed attempt on Maliki’s and Allawi’s lives.  He is suggesting Sunday will be the RV day.  Finally, there was a live internet radio broadcast where Lindsey Williams spoke about the ruling elite.  He says that they are the cause of what is happening in Egypt.  He is also saying that the elite’s plan is to sink the value of the US dollar.  The Euro will also sink and we’ll see this happen by the end of 2012.  Global settlements were acknowledged as something that will come into play, but he said it won’t happen for a long time.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the third time

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.     February (week of the 14^th) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies    

2.     February 15 – 3rd reading of the budget

3.     February 16-17 – GCC Meeting

4.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

5.     February 25  -- Large demonstration online

6.     March 6 – Tariff law goes into effect

7.     March 29-30 – Arab Summit

8.     May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies

9.     May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

10.  June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.     I’m going to start with rumors today because it seems to line up with what’s going on with the government formation news.  Frank reminded us that Maliki wanted this all done by the 15^th, and he said that it needed to be done by the start of the GCC meeting, which is the 16^th.  I recall a few weeks ago Delta had his eye on 13^th – 15^th.  Okie is saying that the RV should happen on the 13^th.  He also said a delay occurred because of an assassination attempt on both Allawi and Maliki.  Now onto the what’s happening with the government.

2.     Just as recent as yesterday, the budget was to be read on the 13^th.  Also, the National Council policy was to be voted on in Parliament on the 12^th.  Suddenly, both are moved out.  Now, the budget will be read, and hopefully ratified, on Tuesday.  Also, the National Council policy will be voted on sometime next week.  If the budget is going to be ratified on Tuesday, they must announce the government since the full GOI must ratify the budget.  If they want to have a globally recognized currency before the GCC meeting, they don’t have much time to complete the government, ratify the budget, and RV.  But, Maliki has stated that he can walk into Parliament with the names of the vacant ministries and be done with it.  So, it is possible it can happen.  I don’t see the vote on the National Council policy being an issue despite the news that Maliki and Allawi need to meet to discuss it.  We already see they will vote on it in Parliament.  It was scheduled for Saturday.  The hold up is the fact that Maliki hasn’t given the names for all of the ministries to Parliament.  As I said yesterday, it isn’t that he doesn’t have the names.  Slowly but surely, we are seeing more and more candidates being nominated.  Maliki himself has his own ideas about who should hold the ministerial seats.  Yet, he hasn’t brought the names to Parliament.  Finally, in regards to the protests, we’ve heard Night and others say it will not stop and it will get worse.  Lindsey says the cause of the ME problems are related to the ruling elite, and he says the Muslim Brotherhood wants to take over the entire ME region.  If Lindsey is right, Iraq needs to hurry because they will be hit.  But, going back to the rumored dates and the recent change of dates related to government formation news, things seem to be lining up well.  Let's hope we see the RV next week!