Facts:
5. Member of Finance Committee: al-Issawi and promised to reach a satisfactory outcome on the budget
12. Election of Hasan al-Chairman of the Commission on Security and Defense Council of Representatives
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
4. Med chat
Where Are We At?
1. They CBI auctions
2. Today’s government formation news centered mostly on the Parliament meetings. Parliament met to discuss the Federal Court’s decision. Maliki is still defending the Court ruling and told the members of Parliament that the ruling is final. The opposition to the ruling from blocs still exists. In fact, the Kurds are opposed to the ruling, which could cause another political crisis. More importantly, the List is demanding that Parliament dissolve the Federal Court. An economic advisor to Maliki said that the CBI’s assets are not venerable. However, Shabibi continues to make the argument that the assets are venerable. In other related news, the Security Defense Committee elected two people into the Chairman and deputy roles.
3. In budget news, the big news of the day is that they completed the 2nd reading. Also, there was news that Parliament would read the budget for the 3rd time and ratify it by the end of the week. This is all surprising news given that the Kurds have expressed opposition to the budget.
4. News reported today that the oil will begin flowing in the Kurdistan region beginning today.
5. An MP said that the upcoming Arab summit will be held on schedule and will not be affected by the events in Egypt.
6. An article was published showing the Council resolutions. One of the resolutions was related to the CBI and the DFI. It stated that the CBI immediately process the opening of accounts and transferring money for the DFI, and it stated it must do this by 5/1/11.
7. Parliament’s next meeting is scheduled for Thursday
8. On the rumor front, Delta reported that Maliki said that he could walk into Parliament, if there are no more nominations for the ministries, and be done. He said we should look for more GOI news by the end of this week. Steve from PD is hearing things may be delayed a bit longer, and Night is still looking for something concrete to happen this week as it relates to Maliki. Med is also watching what is happing with Allawi and Maliki this week. Lastly, we’re still seeing rumors regarding banks preparing in the US, or bankers confirming there will be an RV of the IQD.
What’s left?
1. Reading of the budget for the third time
2. Closure on Security positions (5 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (4)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
What’s It All Mean?
1. The CBI auctions went back down again. Combine this with the news of the oil flowing in the Kurdistan region today or tomorrow, PD’s intel from last Friday saying there may be and RV anytime between last Friday and tomorrow, Maliki’s news that he can easily fill the ministries this week, and the pressure the List is putting on Parliament to dissolve the Federal Court, and maybe we’ll see serious action regarding the completion of the government. Or, better yet, maybe the RV?!
2. With regards to the government formation, the List’s demand on Parliament to dissolve the Federal Court will be something to watch. They can say as much as they want, but without action, everything will remain the same. On the other hand, if Parliament takes the request seriously and begins to take the necessary steps to dissolve the government, we could see Night’s scenario play out. More specifically, we might see Parliament initiate a vote of no confidence for Maliki, dissolve the Federal Court, and replace the judges with new people. This, of course, would mean that someone would step into the PM role. Nigh also suggests that this entire scenario would likely speed up the RV.
3. In regards to the budget, it’s great that it made it through the second reading despite opposition from the Kurds, or the reported opposition from the Kurds. This suggests that the issues are not large and that the Kurds really are ok with the budget. If this is the case, we should see the 3rd reading go smoothly. Barring any major issues, this budget looks like its going to be finalized, and it may possibly be finalized by the end of the week according to news.
4. The news of the CBI preparing for the end of the DFI by 5/1 is encouraging. This could mean that the RV will happen prior to 5/1, since Iraq would not want to find themselves in a situation where the DFI expired and their currency has little to no value. Remember, if this happens, creditors would be forced to go after their assets. This is not in the best interest of the CBI or the government, of course. Somewhat related to this is the upcoming Arab summit. Remember, it would be in the best interest of Iraq to form their government and RV prior to the summit in order to prove to the Arab countries that they are a viable trading partner….with a globally traded currency that has value. So, we have to outside dates of 3/23 and 5/1.
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