Facts:
1. CBI auctions
12. Commission for Public Integrity: We have the names of the corrupt leaders of the teams and brigades
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
1. None
Where Are We At?
1. In government formation news, the National Alliance said there is no linkage between the National Council and the candidates for the security positions. In other words, they said the security positions do not need to be settled prior to the law of the National Council being formalized and aprpoved. Also, the leader of the colation of state law said that Chalabi, a candidate for the Interior posting, will be scrutinized along with other candidates (the List was reported as supporting Chalabi for the Interior posting). He also said Maliki will likely choose figures outside the political agreements to fill the security ministries. He added that al-Hassani, a member of the rule of law, will be chosen by Maliki to fill the Defense portfolio. In related news, a member of the Kurdish bloc reported that Parliament will likely be voting on the 3 security ministries next week
2. Nujaifi announced the formation of 2 commissions of inquiry to find out the fate of the 40 billion dollars withdrawn from the DFI. He also asked the Council of Ministers of the CBI to open accounts immediately for the transfer of funds from the DFI before the first of May. In related news, a deputy from the Kurdish bloc said that Nujaifi ordered the formation of a special committee to investigate the Finance Ministry’s expenditures from the DFI. The article mentions that $34 mil is not accounted for, and the $34 mil was spent by the Finance Ministry with Maliki’s consent. Also, a member of the Parliamentary Integrity Committee and a member of the List said that the leaders of the teams and brigades from the Interior and Defense ministries are accused of corruption. He said that they have the names of the people who stole money and will take legal action against them. He further stated that the names of the people have great influence in the political parties
3. In other news, Parliament approved the draft law on salaries and allowances of the President of the Republic and his deputies, the PM and his deputies, and the ministers and deputy ministers. They also authorized the general secretariate to prepare a draft law that would suspend the custom tariff law until further notice
4. Regarding the demonstrations, the organizers of the upcoming demonstration on the 25th said it will be a peaceful demonstration. They also warned those who might try to incite violence or chaos. They said they will have special committees to carry out delicate inspections to make sure that demonstrators do not carry weapons and that they avoid clashes with Armed Forces. Finally, they reiterated that they do not aim to force the downfall of the regime or target certain political personalities, but they aim to reform the system. In related news, it was reported that many of the deputies who represent the different political blocs traveled out of the country or to their home provinces. The source witnessed many officials and their families at the airport in the last two days. Those who went to their home provinces were supposed to talk with people before the protests on the 25th. Also, it was reported that the airport suspended the granting of visa to enter Iraq effective tomorrow. There was no reason given, and there is no date for when they will resume granting of visas
5. In budget news, a member of the Iraqi Greens said he was surprised that funds were not allocated from the budget for the Law of the National Council for Higher Strategic policy, and he noted that this didn’t fit with the Arbil agreements. He said that the non-allocation of funds is due to lack of satisfying some of the parties involved in the political process of this legislation on the grounds that he would oppose the powers of Maliki. He said they must adhere to the promises they made to the Iraqi people and that they need to stop procrastinating on forming the National Council
6. Regarding rumors, someone posted something about the RV this week or never. The person explains that Iraqi politicians have watched the events unfolding in the surrounding countries and have had plenty of time to complete all necessary details for the RV announcement, but they haven’t. He/she states that if there was ever a reason to believe they are facing an emergency situation, this is it and that the RV might be able to save the government. He/she goes on to say that we are looking at an RV for this week or never. Night thinks that Maliki is out of power and was told that the ball is totally in Shabibi’s hands. He says that no matter what happens in the demonstration of the 25th, the RV will go through this time. He also reiterated that if Maliki is removed from his PM post, Allawi will step in and form a government within 48 hours. Night’s sources are even more sure the RV will be in the $3 range since Shabibi is in control and has stated that the will adjust the exchange rate to stay in line with the budget. Frank also commented on what Shabibi said, but he added a little more color to it by saying that Shabibi is saying that the rate is late and that Shabibi will have to make the RV compatible with the budget. Frank also suggests that Shabibi hints that he wants to give the rate over the weekend. Frank is also of the belief that Maliki already turned over the 3 names for the security ministry, and he noted an article where it mentioned the Interior and Defense ministers were working on security for the demonstrations on the 25th. He also said that Maliki is the cause of all the delays and that the “powers that be” are sending him a message. Delta received a call from someone close to the CBI. He was told that Friday may be a day of celebration
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3. February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
4. February 25 -- Large demonstration
5. February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
6. March 1 – Foreign Exchange Commission says sales of dinar must cease
7. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
8. May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
9. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
10. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. Today seemed like witch hunt day! Nujaifi set off a fire storm, and I doubt that even Maliki will be able to stop it. If there is one thing that Nujaifi has shown me, it is that he means business and he means what he says. He is behind the investigations that will turn up all those responsible for stealing from the government. He gave orders and a timeline, and I have no doubt he will execute on that plan. If I were a bad guy, I think I’d pack my bags, leave the country, and never return. Night said they would begin to release news of corruption and those responsible. We’re definitely beginning to see this
2. Regarding government formation news, without Parliament meeting this week, we can’t expect them to fill the 3 security positions and get them voted on. If the security positions are done as some are saying, then of course, we only need to see an announcement of the GOI followed by the RV. There is also Allawi’s position that needs to be settled. Today’s news still shows there is disagreement between Allawi and Maliki on the National Council. Until these two either come to an agreement, or are forced to come to agreement, the bickering and deal breaking will continue as it has for so long now. In either case, if it is true they need a full government to RV and they must RV by 3/1, they both don’t have many days left. So let’s hope we see ground breaking progress on this within the next few days
3. On the demonstrations, I agree with what the person said regarding the demonstration on the 25th. It doesn’t matter what their best intents are, if the demonstrators show up in anywhere near the numbers estimated, there is no way they will be able to control the chaos and violence that will break out. It will only take one bad apple, and we know there are many there, to spark off a huge flame in that environment. Those politicians that left the country with their families were smart. Could this turn into a celebration instead due to an RV announcement? Maybe, but that would require that the government is truly finished, and it would require them to announce the government prior to the demonstration. If they were smart, they won’t wait until the day of the demonstration to do this
4. Regarding rumors, I think the reality of our situation is somewhere in between what the person wrote about the RV this week or never and Night’s information. We’re seeing a lot of negative news these days, and most of it is focused around what may happen should the demonstrations go south in a bad way. It’s easy to see why one would think that if they don’t RV this week, they will never RV. However, there are good things going on that is being overshadowed by the news of the upcoming demonstration. Look at all the work the US Treasury Department is doing to help them grow their banking and finance sector, their economy, and to help them move towards a market economy. They’ve been there for days and Night says they aren’t leaving until they RV. He said they are there to ensure it happens. If the US really believed this country offered no promise whatsoever, they wouldn’t invest their money, resources, and time to help it rejoin the world community in a capacity that allows them to freely trade globally. The RV will happen despite what happens with the demonstration on the 25th, just as Night suggests. Often, we look at what is given to us in the news as well as from rumors and set artificial deadlines for them to finish the RV. Someone knows the date, but it clearly isn’t any one of us. That said, and given all that is going on, it doesn’t seem that we’re in a situation where it will never happen if it doesn’t happen by this Friday. That, of course, is just my opinion.
"The RV will happen despite what happens with the demonstration on the 25th, just as Night suggests. Often, we look at what is given to us in the news as well as from rumors and set artificial deadlines for them to finish the RV. Someone knows the date, but it clearly isn’t any one of us."
ReplyDeleteHow true this is. I'm keeping an open mind and am enjoying watching it all unfold.