2-13-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     CBI auction results

2.     It is not right to have a two Vice President of the Republic

3.     Iraq parliament approves 8 new ministers

4.     House of Representatives vote on the eight ministers and completed the second reading of budget

5.     Allawi will meet with Barzani in Arbil in a surprise visit today

6.     Maliki’s intelligence threatens protestors by sending random SMS

7.     Agreement between the Coalition and Iraqi national security ministries candidates

8.     Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will decide today or tomorrow on the candidates from the security ministries and security and the law of the National Council for strategic policy

9.     Al-Maliki Visit Wednesday for Kuwait

10.  KUWAIT: Kuwaiti opposition MPs refused to organize their ranks to drop Iraq debt

11.  The Prime Minister asked the House of Representatives quickly approved the budget for fear of street agitation

12.  Allawi Maliki meeting cancelled for unknown reasons

13.  Maliki vows in front of the House of Representatives to meet the demands of the demonstrators

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Email from Daniel

2.     Nighthk11 chat from this afternoon

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     Okie Oil Man

Where Are We At?

1.     I haven’t commented on the CBI auctions lately, but today I will.  The CBI auctions have clearly resumed back to normal.  Today’s volume was $147,756,000

2.     In government formation news, Parliament did not allow the National Alliance to have a 2^nd VP in the Republic.  However, they did vote 2 VPs in today during the Parliament meeting.  Parliament also voted in 8 new ministers of the 9 that were vacant.  It was reported today from the List that there is an agreement on the list of candidates on the national security ministers, and that the agreement was made 5 days before the candidates on the defense and interior were identified.  In other news, Allawi and Maliki were scheduled to meet, but Allawi unexpectedly left to meet with Barzani to discuss outstanding issues as well as government formation related topics.  Meanwhile, the List said that Maliki will decide either today or tomorrow on the candidates for the security ministries as well as the Law of the National Council for strategic policy.  However, a member of the state law said that Maliki did not choose the security minister candidates from the list of candidates given to him by the parties.

3.     In other news, it was said that Maliki ordered his intelligence group to send text message to protesters threatening to jail them should they decide to take part in demonstrations.  However, an article published this evening said that Maliki vowed in the House to meet the demands of Iraqi demonstrators in the coming days. 

4.     On the Kuwaiti front, Maliki is scheduled to go to Kuwait to discuss outstanding issues, including getting Iraq out of Chapter 7.  The meeting is scheduled for this Wednesday.  Also, it was reported that Talabani went to Kuwait to discuss debt relief, but Kuwait is not willing to forgive Kuwait the $23 bil that is owed to them.  Kuwait said they might consider eliminating some of that debt, however.

5.     In rumor news, Okie is still saying that the RV should be happening anytime.  Night had a long chat that cannot be summarized in a sentence or two.  That said, some of the important things he mentioned is that Maliki must finish the government and the budget by Tuesday, or he will be out.  He also said that the drafting of the law limiting the Supreme Federal Court has crippled Maliki.  Last, but not least, he said that Parliament has the full backing of the UNSC, the Secretary General, Obama, and Biden.  Further, he said they have the power to remove Maliki, if he doesn’t do what he is supposed to do.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the third time (again!)

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (1)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.     February (on/after Tuesday) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies    

2.     February 15 – 3rd reading of the budget

3.     February 16-17 – GCC Meeting

4.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

5.     February 25  -- Large demonstration online

6.     March 6 – Tariff law goes into effect

7.     March 29-30 – Arab Summit

8.     May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies

9.     May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

10.  June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.     I’m starting with the budget news today since that is puzzling!  As of the 8^th of this month, Parliament completed the 2^nd reading of the budget.  Then, there were articles that mentioned they were working on amendments, but not modifications.  There were no articles that I saw between the 8^th and yesterday where it stated that they modified the budget and needed to redraft it.  Therefore, I was expecting today’s reading to be the 3^rd and final reading.  I was surprised to see that the article said they met for the 2^nd reading of the budget.  Something is not right!  That said, I’ll leave the status on the budget where it is at since they said they read it for the 2^nd time today.

2.     The big news in government formation is the fact that Parliament gave a no vote to Maliki’s party regarding the 3^rd VP, or the 2^nd VP of the Republic for the National Alliance.  That is a pretty big deal for them.  Night said that Parliament has the backing of the Secretary General, UNSC, Obama, and Biden.  Perhaps that is true?  Ever since the Federal Court ruling, Parliament has shown a very different side.  This should send a message to Maliki should he stay in as PM in some capacity.  Apart from this news, I find it interesting that Allawi unexpectedly declined to meet with Maliki and instead met with Barzani.  Could it be that Allawi doesn’t believe that his meeting with Maliki would be productive?  Could it be that Allawi feels that meeting with Barzani would produce the results he needs?  Could it be that Allawi thinks Maliki will not play a significant role, or any role at all?  The meeting between the two was stated as being the much needed meeting that would put an end to the outstanding government formation issues.  Why would Allawi so casually brush this meeting aside?

3.     On the rumor end, I found Daniel’s email interesting.  He questioned whether it is realistic to expect Iraq to RV sooner rather than later, if they don’t RV this week.  If we look at the CBI auctions over the past few days, it doesn’t indicate they are preparing for an RV given how high the auctions have been.  It is rumored that just before an RV, the CBI auctions would be low, or they won’t have any at all days prior to an RV.  Given that, Night is suggesting that everything needs to be done by Tuesday.  Today’s auction is pretty normal.  Perhaps we’ll see a low auction for tomorrow?  But going back to Daniel’s email, if they don’t care to RV for the GCC, what would make them think it’s an important thing to do for the Arab summit?    It’s hard to understand their line of thinking.  On the other hand, it’s very easy for us to drum up a million reasons why they need to RV.  We haven’t been right yet.