2-28-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.     CBI auction results

2.     Maliki announced decisions of the special meeting of the Council of Ministers

3.     Iraqi List: Failure to create National Council for the Strategic Policies will be a major imbalance in the political process

4.     Abdel-Latif: The Parliament today in a very critical stage

5.     UN: Iraq and Kuwait stand at the threshold of a new dawn in relations

6.     Iraqi List seeks to set deadline for implementation of Barzani agreements

7.     Sherwan Al-waeli: Mutual Distrust Between Political Blocs is a Major Cause of Delay in Naming Cabinet Security

8.     Sadr: Maliki accountable for Iraq situation

9.     Exchange of Accusations Between Iraq and the Rule of Law is Responsible for Delaying the Implementation of Political Agreements

10.  Zebari Mlkrt discuss how to end the outstanding issues on Iraq, the Security Council

11.  CBI: The Tensions in the Arab Arena Does Not Affect Trading in the Country's Cconomic

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Patric4all Post: Peoples Dinar 2/28/11 (w/ Eagle’s Comments)

2.     Nighthk11 chat

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     SteveI Post: Peoples Dinar 2/27/11 (Ray’s Update)

2.     Rumor from 1 Dinar

Where Are We At?

1.     News is still somewhat scattered.  Maliki announced a special meeting of the Council of Ministers.  He said the cabinet decided to hold a package of economic reforms, administrative, and set term limits of 4 to 5 years for some government officials. Sadr held Maliki responsible for the situation in Iraq and urged him not to disregard the responsibilities

2.     The List warned against eliminating the National Council saying it will create a big problem that will engulf the political process.  However, a National Alliance MP noted that Sistani doesn’t want the GOI to add a new position in government.  In other government news, the List said they are seeking to apply time limits to the implementation of the agreements signed by the political blocs in Erbil.  It was noted that 14 days have passed since Maliki said he would turn over the 3 security minister names to Parliament, but he still has not done so.  Also, it was reported that the delays in the security minister positions are related to mutual distrust between political parties.  Once again, the List threatened to leave the government due to the absence of political parties’ compliance with all agreements

3.     A member of the National Alliance said that Iraq is at a critical stage and added that it has great difficulties ahead concerning decisions that must be made on the rationalization of government as well as the reform of the political system

4.     In other news, the UN secretary general said that Iraq and Kuwait stand at the threshold of a new dawn of peaceful coexistence.  He also welcomed the steps the two countries have made to resolve outstanding issues within the framework of the UN resolutions.  The still need to resolve the issues of compensation, Kuwait’s position on Iraq emerging from Chapter 7, the border issues, and the missing Kuwaitis.  Also, Melkert met with Zabari to discuss a number of activities undertaken by the Mission of UNAMI as well as the role UNAMI will play in assisting Iraq with putting an end to all outstanding issues in the Security Council

5.     The CBI said that Iraq’s economic transactions are not affected by they disorders occurring in some of the Arab countries

6.     On the rumor front, Steve I’s sources tell him that parliament will be voting on the 3 ministry positions today.  His contacts still believe this week will see the RV.  Someone’s Baghdad course said the RV will occur by June of this year.  He said that rumor has it the rate will be between .56 and $1. Another person outlined the most common dates when the UN would accept an RV.  If the RV is not in March, then he cited April 1, May 1, or Jun 30^th as possible dates for the RV.  Eagle stated that because this is a complete revaluation of the dinar, it will not be subjected to the UN dates and will not be pre-announced.  Night is saying that Iraq must RV and feels they will RV sometime this week.  He said that the RV is tied to the budget and that Shabibi said he would adjust the exchange rates to address the gap in the budget.  He confirmed the announcement Steve I talked about that took place in Baghdad.  His UN sources who attended the meeting to monitor it provided the confirmation

What’s left?

1.    Vote on the budget – Done!

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.     February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)

2.     February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!

3.     February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 

4.     February 25  -- Large demonstration

5.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

6.     March 1 – Budget becomes effective retro to 1/1/2011

7.     March 29-30 – Arab Summit

8.     May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies

9.     May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

10.  June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.     Although the news is somewhat scattered, there is a concentration of news related to the government responding to the demands of the citizens.  They appear to narrowly focused on meeting the demands of the citizens, which is a good thing.  However, there still is no progress on the security ministry positions as well as the issues surrounding the National Council.  In fact, today’s news suggests that we’re sliding backwards again with Allawi threatening to leave the government and the National Alliance dismissing Allawi’s demand to have the vote on the National Council go to parliament.  Then again, we’ve seen Allawi threaten to leave numerous times, and we’ve seen the National Alliance constantly taking a stand against Allawi and the National Council.  It’s not new, but it just suggests they are not moving forward.  Apart from this, the news has been really dull lately!  It seems there was a big push to get the budget and government done.  Once the budget was near finished,  the news was overtaken by the demonstrations and the government formation activities have almost stopped.  That is unfortunate as the news states Maliki still has not given over the 3 candidates for the security ministries.  I hope everything is done as so many say it is

2.     Concerning the budget, there seems to be a general consensus that tomorrow will reveal the RV because the budget becomes effective.  That means they can begin paying the companies/contracts.  It is also said to mean they must RV because they cannot pay with dinars, and because they wouldn’t want to pay out all the dinars only to RV.  That would be a waste of money on Iraq’s part since they would have paid too much for the contracts.  Tomorrow is only hours away.  Let’s hope everyone is right about that.  While it sounds good, I keep thinking about how Iraq has seemed to jump over every hurdle we’ve placed in front of them (i.e., Iraq must RV because of this….or that…and so on).  Can anyone find the silver bullet?!  Maybe this hurdle will be the last

2-28-11 Nighthk11 chat

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DV (membership required)

1. The demonstrations really scared the politicians and they will RV
2. They talked about being ready, but were not
3. Many currencies are due to RV on 3/1
4. Night was told the dinar is one of them
5. Night has seen some posting of the rate being .56 - .86
6. He believes it will be in the $3.10 - $3.30 range
7. If they follow the UN mandate, then we should see the movement tonight our time on the CBI site
8. They MUST RV
9. The UN mandate with information from the IMF requires countries to regulate their currencies to be in line with world prices for commodities that they are either trading or importing
10. This tool is used to stabilize the world's currencies so that fair market trading is achieved
11. China is not a member of the IMF and this is why it has been difficult to get them to raise the value of their yuan
12. There should not be anymore stalls as the RV must be done now
13. The pressure inside Iraq will not subside. Nor will the assistance from outside entities to follow through and get this done
14. Maliki most likely already released the 3 security minister names
15. The RV, according to Shabibi, is tied to the budget since they have a shortfall
16. He indicated they would fix that by adjusting the exchange rate and by borrowing
17. One of the keys here is paying the contractors in dinars--can't do that unless the dinar is international
18. The March 1 date for their budget is in line with the UN revaluation of currencies
19. Ration cards are to be loaded with the new dinar on the 2nd of March
20. If they plan to go from 250,000 down to 25,000, they must raise the value of the dinar to reflect that
21. We are still on track for tonight
22. Banks are ready
23. The US is in serious financial trouble--we need this RV as much as they do
24. Night has confirmation of the meeting in Baghdad and said the meeting did take place
25. The meeting was for minor politicians from the region and CEO's of companies doing large volumes of business
26. The information was given to him by people working in the UN. They were there to monitor
27. Maliki is not an issue--Parliament is the supreme authority as Nujaifi stated
28. When they missed the RVs in the past, it was internal. It's now global
29. We should see the RV this week

2-28-11 Patric4all Post: Peoples Dinar 2/28/11 (w/ Eagle’s Comments)

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS/OPINIONS

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. The UN Treasury listing shows that they seldom RV or update the rate of exchange for a country during the month
2. The person found that RVs in December usually happen on the 31st
3. Jan through May is usually on the 1st
4. June has 3 days that they can RV, usually on the 30th but on some occasions on the 16th and 17th
5. If Iraq moves the effective date of their budget, it will definitely not RV during the month of March
6. We'd be looking Apr 1st, May 1st, or Jun 30th
7. Eagle commented saying that countries listed on the UN Operational Rates typically go through minor currency adjustments
8. He states Iraq will be going through a complete revaluation
9. In his opinion, the usual dates of the announcement of the UN Operational Rates will not apply to the dinar
10. The reason why it won't apply is because the WILL NOT pre-announce the change in advance as they normally do; hedge funds will buy up the dinar if they know in advance

2-28-11 CBI: The Tensions in the Arab Arena Does Not Affect Trading in the Country's Cconomic

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The adviser to the CBI said that Iraq' economic transactions are not affected by the disorders occurring in some Arab countries
2. Saleh said the CBI has taken measures to prevent monetary and fiscal impact from the wave of disturbances that are taking place in the Middle East
3. He said the CBI is responsible for monetary policy and the prevention of vulnerability to external variables that fundamentally overthrow regimes, dealing with inflation, maintaining prcies, implementation of policy in oil prices, the management of the financial reserves of the State, and the issuance of the dinar

2-28-11 Zebari Mlkrt discuss how to end the outstanding issues on Iraq, the Security Council

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of the article

1. Zebari met with the special envoy of the Secretary-General of the UN to discuss various activities undertaken by the Mission of UNAMI
2. They also discussed the role of UNAMI in assisting Iraq with putting end to all outstanding issues in the Security Council

2-28-11 Exchange of Accusations Between Iraq and the Rule of Law is Responsible for Delaying the Implementation of Political Agreements

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The List threatened to leave the government again due to the absence of political parties' compliance with all agreements
2. The concerns they have are related to the national policies, rules of procedure of the Council of Ministers and deputies, general command of the armed forces, and national reconciliation and partnership issues
3. He said the List will soon agree with political blocs on developing a deadline for implementing the political agreements
4. A member of the state of law coalition lead by Maliki said the issues raised by the List are not new and that the issue of voting on the national strategic policy in the house should be dismissed and debated
5. He also denied the accusations of the security forces being given the commands to shoot demonstrators to disperse the crowd

2-28-11 Rumor from 1 Dinar

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE IGNORE THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of posting on 1 Dinar (membership required)

1. Person's Baghdad source says the RV will occur by June 2011
2. Maliki and his men have 100 days to get the act together and improve the citizen's lives
3. Everything is done: government; budget; security
4. Contact says that they are waiting for the new cash reserves of small bills that have more of the Kurdish representation on them
5. Kurdish representation is critical
6. There can be no RV until the banks get the small bills
7. A source inside the De La Rue mint says the new bills are being designed right now and some of the plates have been made. Printing will start soon
8. Some of the proofs may be shown behind closed doors at the Arab summit
9. Focus of the next 100 days is security and this will be achieved by working with the citizens
10. Security will occur when the population is appeased as ground is broken for all the civil projects to improve their lives
11. When the citizens see that work has begun security will increase dramatically
12. Rumor has it the rate is .56 IQD to $1 USD and this rate is approved bye the IMF and all other stakeholders
13. The timing of this coincides with the US assurance that full fledged membership into the WTO will happen by the end of this year
14. Source says RV is not necessary for the WTO entry as a full-fledged member, but it is necessary for security
15. Source says a lop is out of the question
16. Source says look for the CBI to stop auctioning IQD
17. When the auctions are halted, the RV is very near

2-28-11 Sadr: Maliki accountable for Iraq situation

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Sadr holds Maliki accountable for the situation in Iraq
2. He urged Maliki not to disregard his responsibilities and to put forth immediate solutions
3. Sadr started a week lon referendum to inquire about people's needs and demands

2-28-11 Sherwan Al-waeli: Mutual Distrust Between Political Blocs is a Major Cause of Delay in Naming Cabinet Security

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. An attorney attributed the delay in the National Alliance for their security minister candidates to mutual distrust between political forces as well as differences in views between the security minister representing the political bloc or a particular component
2. He said they need to accelerate the resolution of this issue and vote on the candidates as soon as possible

2-28-11 Iraqi List seeks to set deadline for implementation of Barzani agreements

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. A spokesman for the List said today that they are seeking to apply time limits to the implementation of the agreements signed by the political blocs in Erbil
2. He said although they have submitted candidates for the defense ministry, they still have not received a response
3. He noted that 14 days have passed since Maliki said he would resolve the security ministries within days
4. He accused the National Coalition of stalling on the issues of the unallocated security ministries as well as the leadership position of the National Council, which should be given to Allawi
5. The List has been critical of Maliki's government formation to date and has accused him several times of contravening the agreements

2-28-11 SteveI Post: Peoples Dinar 2/27/11 (Ray’s Update)

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of posting on DD

1. Their sources tell them that parliament will be voting on the 3 ministry positions either today tor tomorrow, and then will address the HCL immediately following
2. Maliki gave the MPs 100 days to get their act together, or be fired
3. Their contacts sill believe this week is on the table for an RV
4. Steve expects parliament will be busy over the next couple weeks executing projects with contractors to start new jobs for the unemployed
5. Steve is not promising this week for the RV, but isn't ruling it out

This article says the HCL is on the agenda for the House

2-28-11 UN: Iraq and Kuwait stand at the threshold of a new dawn in relations

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. The UN Secretary-Genearl said that Iraq and Kuwait stand at the threshold of a new dawn of peaceful coexistence and friendly relations
2. He said he welcomed the steps the two countries have made to resolve outstanding issues within the framework of the UN resolutions
3. The article mentions there are a lot of outstanding issues, the most prominent of the issues being the issue of compensation paid by Iraq, Kuwait's position on Iraq emerging from Chapter VII, the demarcation of the border between the 2 countries, and the missing Kuwaitis

2-28-11 Abdel-Latif: The Parliament today in a very critical stage

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. A member of the National Alliance said that Iraq is at a critical stage because the parliament is not yet completed
2. He added that the parliament has great difficulties head concerning decisions that must be made on the rationalization of government as well as the reform of the political system
3. He called for cutting and accelerating the need to hold elections for provincial councils and district councils, aspects in addition to legislation, and important laws relating to the salaries of the 3 governing bodies

2-28-11 Iraqi List: Failure to create National Council for the Strategic Policies will be a major imbalance in the political process

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. The list warned that the worldwide abolition of the non-formation of the National Council will create a big problem that will engulf the political process
2. An MP from the National Alliance noted Sistani's statement about the GOI not developing non-essential positions, including the National Council

2-28-11 Maliki announced decisions of the special meeting of the Council of Ministers

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. On a news conference, Maliki announced a special meeting of the Council of Ministers
2. He said the cabinet decided to hold a package of economic reforms, administrative, and set term limits of 4 to 5 years for the director-general and inspector generals in the ministries
3. He said this would force the minister to bear the responsibility for combating corruption within his ministry before they are audited
4. He wants to reduce the retirement age to provide additional employment opportunities for youth and graduates, and he wants to hold accountable those found guilty of bribery for the purpose of obtaining a degree and career
5. He also announced the Council of Ministers decided to launch projects to serve the process of reconstruction and services, agriculture, industry, reviewing the investment law, advocacy for law reform, provinces solving the municipal councils, affirming its support for early elections to provincial councils, and districts and areas in response to the demands of citizens
6. He stressed the rights of citizens to demonstrate peacefully

2-28-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1844)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 28-FEB-2011. The results were as follows:

DETAILS	NOTES
Number of banks	21
Auction price selling dinar / US$	1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$	-----
Amount sold at auction price (US$)	137,609,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)	-----
Total offers for buying (US$)	137,609,000
Total offers for selling (US$)	-----

Exchange rates
Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets

Copyright © 2011. Central Bank of Iraq. All rights reserved. Please read important disclaimer.

2-27-11 No summary tonight

Hi all!

I've been monitoring the news throughout the day today, but there just isn't much that is noteworthy. Since I haven't posted much at all today, I'm not going to create a summary tonight. Let's see if tomorrow brings us more interesting news, or better yet, the RV would certainly be better!

Take care,
J

2-27-11 Nujaifi calls for provincial elections in 90 days

Highlights/Thoughts
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1. Anti-government protests are set to continue across Iraq amid repeated calls for reform
2. Nujaifi called for new provincial elections within 3 months
3. Al Jazeera's Jane Arraf said that Nujaifi's comments are a sign that politicians in the country are taking notice of the protests
4. She also said it would be 2 years early to replace provincial councils
5. She added that anger from the protesters is mainly directed at local officials

2-27-11 RV FACTOIDS SUPPORTING 3/1/2011

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DV (membership required)

From PD, encouraging RV factoids supporting 3/1. Not summarized as this is a listing.

- UN revalues many nation’s currencies on the 1st of March 2011
- Government of Iraq (GOI) budget is now official and goes in effect on the 1st of March 2011
- Arab Summit is scheduled for the 29th of March 2011 (not the 23rd), Iraq needs to be a member one month prior (Feb 28th 2011)
- Iraq is hosting the Arab Summit on March 29th 2011 (Clear sign that they will do what it takes to become a member of the WTO )
- Iraq MUST RI or RV in order to become a member as per WTO special request on Iraq.
- It is confirmed that US banks have had extra physical cash in their vaults ready for IQD RV – they were going to return the reserves,
but were told by the Federal Reserve to cancel the return order. This is an indicator that it is imminent.
- The Iraqi budget for 2011 does not supply the contracts with the amount of money necessary for all the projects outlined pre-RV
(can’t pay them at 1170 or .00086 – 1/10 of a penny) – (82.6 billion dinars is not a lot of money pre-RV. Post RV, the new rate of
exchange will be sufficient monetary support all of the existing 3500 contracts as per Iraqi Government )
- China leaders signing off to the RV in Iraq on Feb 24th 2011, a huge indicator that everything is ready to go. ( US’ debt to China
will be paid off to some degree by this IQD RV as US holds 3 Trillion USD in their reserves. Confirmed! )
- With the hyper inflation rising in Iraq , come 1st of March, the large denominations will have to be recirculated again which will be
almost impossible since most, if not all large denominations recovered, were shredded by the CBI and they can’t afford to print new
bills AGAIN.
- Iraqi Borders are being strictly monitored for incoming and outgoing planes and anyone holding Iraqi Dinars which is a pre-cursor for
and RI or RV
- Protests in Iraq proves beneficial: The protests there have caused inflation in the country on many levels leaving the Government
with now choice but to RV their currency to regain stability otherwise it would be imperative to reissue the larger denominations.
- The US Treasurer and the World Bank were in Iraq this week to sign off on the RI or RV as well . Good news there!
- GOI positions are all filled — everything else is just smoke and mirrors otherwise the budget would have been approved and official
in the distant future. SAFE to note that the GOI is seated.
- The Iraqi dinar dealers are now focused on lower denominations being distributed as they are now available for investors.
- More Airports exchange boots are being set up by dealers for this upcoming RI/RV cash in process
- People all over the nation are changing their tune as to the Iraqi Dinar as a “scam” including Major Banks. — how many Us banks
would be buying and selling Iraqi dinars at 1170 without a nominal gain unless they know it will be of some worth in the near future?
- No one knows the rate, however, understanding oil, natural gas, and agriculture being their GDP (Gross Domestic Product), it would be
a huge disadvantage for Iraq to trade their resources with the rest of the world at that rate. Especially considering the fact that
Iraq is striving to regain its status in the world – The rate of exchange has to be at least a re-instated (pre-war rate) of 3.22.
- The IMF (Int’l Monetary Fund) has also been pressuring Iraqi Government to RV…the chances of an RI or RV happening mid-March is a
stretch that the IMF is NOT going to allow.
- Maliki will lose his position as Prime Minister if that happens. ( Rumor until confirmed )
- Maliki’s actual announcement on Thursday, Feb. 24th 2011 to the Iraqi people clearly indicated that Iraq has major plans to improve
on the infrastructure of the country. In order to do so, the country would greatly benefit from a re-valued currency higher than its
current rate of exchange. (We know things are very near) — It would be rather unwise for a Prime Minister to exclaim such plans and
time periods expecting that a 1170 rate of exchange will support his goals for a country as huge as Iraq.
- Maliki said he needed 15 months to get the electricity to everyone, more time for water and the sewers.
- The country has been exchanging oil and paying contractors in US Dollars because they didn’t have a government formed in the past.
Why would a newly formed Government continue to use another country’s currency (USD) dollars when they have their own newly printed
(IQD)? First of all it is very costly to print the initial denominations, and now lower denominations are being circulated. With
lower denominations value being so low, why would they print and circulate low denom’s without the RV near?
- All of the above supports the events about to occur in the very near future. Any time between today and the 2nd of March
- Tell your invested friends. The RV has to happen now!

2-2711 Prime Minister Nouri Kamil al-Maliki Address the Extraordinary Meeting of the Cabinet

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. During the emergency meeting of the Cabinet, Maliki selected a period of 100 days which they will wait before assessing the work of government and individual ministries to see how it succeeded or failed in the assignment of work from today's meeting
2. Maliki said he will make change in light of the outcome of the evaluation
3. He touched on sovereignty and ways to combat corruption, stressing it is the responsibility of each minister to know what is going on in his ministry before they reach the Integrity Commission and other relevant institutions that fight corruption
4. Maliki will announce appointments to the public and not restrict them in a certain department, making it difficult for the general public to see, which may lead to the deprivation of citizens who do not have the means to contact these departments
5. He stressed he would investigate some accidents and violations that occurred during the demonstrations
6. He will make changes in locations where demonstrators focused whether in the in the ministries, local governments, provincial, or municipal councils

2-27-11 CBI auction results

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1843)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 27-FEB-2011. The results were as follows:

DETAILS	NOTES
Number of banks	12
Auction price selling dinar / US$	1170
Auction price buying dinar / US$	-----
Amount sold at auction price (US$)	127,960,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)	-----
Total offers for buying (US$)	127,960,000
Total offers for selling (US$)	-----

Exchange rates
Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets

Copyright © 2011. Central Bank of Iraq. All rights reserved. Please read important disclaimer.

2-26-11 Recap of the day's event/postings

Facts:

1.     GOI Spokesman: Parliament to hold emergency meeting tomorrow

2.     Talabani meets with former British Prime Minister John Major in Kuwait

3.     Sistani hails Friday’s demonstrations; Warns GOI of the repercussions if they don’t continue efforts

4.     UN prepares comprehensive Briefing Book on Iraq

5.     Osman: Kurdistan will approve the nomination of Mr. Chalabi of the Ministry of the Interior if the offer for the position officially

6.     Arab League council holds session next Monday

7.     Baghdad and Beijing agree to develop economic cooperation

8.     Parliament decided to postpone Monday’s council meeting; To be held March 6, 2011

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.     Peoples Dinar Post: US Treasury’s Out-n-Out Opinion on the RV

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.     Frank26 Post: KTF Missions 2/25/11

2.     Skype chat - Okie Oil Man on MTT

Where Are We At?

1.     Another day of fragmented news.  The Council of Ministers plan to hold an emergency meeting tomorrow to activate the work of the ministries, governors, and to develop urgent operational plans.  In related news

2.     Talabani was reported to have met with the former British Minister John Major.  Talabani said Iraq has made considerable achievements after the liberation from dictatorship in the areas of politics, economy, development and social progress

3.     Sistani hailed the demonstrations and warned the government on the current approach in the management of the state.  He invited them to take critical decisions regarding canceling privileges of members of the House, provincial councils, senior officials, and he told them to refrain from the development of new government positions

4.     The UN prepared a comprehensive briefing book on Iraq.  In the Economic Development Recommendations section, the reports states they recommend Iraq implement an appropriate monetary and exchange rate policy framework to preserve hard-won gains in disinflation and de-dolarization

5.     In government formation news, a member of the Kurdistan coalition said Chalabi was never formally nominated for the Interior Minister.  Othman said he learned of Chalabi’s nomination through the media.  He also said that the ministries will be agreed upon during the close of the period, if not, the blocs would settle the matter

6.     In other news, the permanent representative to the Arab League Al-Harithi said the matter of whether the Arab summit in Baghdad will take place will be decided on during the upcoming meeting of the Arab foreign Ministers

7.     Regarding China, the Deputy of Foreign Affairs from China said that they seek to promote the work of Chinese companies in projects within the oil, electricity, construction and reconstruction underway in Iraq

8.     Parliament decided to postpone Monday’s meeting until 3/6.  The delay is to allow them to fully communicate with citizens and identify their needs, demands, and to provide feedback to the House

9.     On the rumor front, one person pretended to be part of media in an effort to talk with Neil Wollen regarding an article he wrote.  He didn’t get Neil, but he reported he spoke with the best friend of his assistant.  The lady told him that Iraq is seeking the highest rate and they will RV when they are read despite the outside pressures.  Okie says that the budget is now official and that the base rate is $3.22.  He said that since the budget is official, they can now spend the budget at the RV rate

What’s left?

1.    Ratification of budget – Done!

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)

3.    Formal announcement of government

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.     February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)

2.     February 20 – Vote on budget : Done!

3.     February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 

4.     February 25  -- Large demonstration online

5.     February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

6.     March 29-30 – Arab Summit

7.     May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies

8.     May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

9.     June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.     Whether Iraq is sincere or not, they are making it very clear their priorities are addressing the demands of the citizens; hence their desire to postpone Parliament’s meeting until 3/6 in order to spend time with the citizens listening to their demands.

2.     The most interesting news today was related to the UN briefing report.  To me, they made it clear that they want Iraq to implement the exchange rate mechanism (RV).  The next most interesting information from today was the rumor about the person impersonating media personnel.  Apart from this, it appears we may have a wait, unless Parliament works behind the scenes to finish the government.  That said, if the person who pretended to be associated with media is right, the government formation and announcement may not necessarily bring the RV given that Iraq must appear to be stable, self-sufficient, and sovereign.  Even if they passed these three tests, can they get the highest rate possible in today’s environment?  If they don’t think they will, and they will hold out until they can get the highest rate, then we will wait more

2-26-11 Peoples Dinar Post: US Treasury’s Out-n-Out Opinion on the RV

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. Person impersonated a member of the public media and tried to get in touch with Neil Wolin, the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, regarding an article that Neil posted
2. He didn't get Neil, but talked with a close friend of Neil's personal assistant
3. She said she talked with Neil's assistant all the time about the dinar
4. She said it will RV when it's good and ready and that the outside world can put as much pressure as they want, but they are trying to come out at the highest possible end of the rate as they can
5. The budget in place helps
6. The uprisings have made this a tough sale to foreign investors
7. The RV will be based on how sovereign, solvent, stable, and self-sufficient Iraq will appear to the world
8. Their goal is to come out at the highest end possible without disrupting the balance of the economic situation in the Middle East and world
9. She said our government feels that Iraq is testing the road of democracy and feel they are playing with fire and are pushing the envelope too far
10. They concluded that "this thing" is a walking time bomb waiting to explode...good or bad, and some think the GOI is getting greedy with the rate
11. The GOI doesn't want to have to go back and redo an RV....it can't be redone and they have just one shot at this
12. The world's governing bodies (WTO, IMF, UN, Kuwait, CBI) have to sign off on this and Iraq has to be able to sustain whatever rate they come out at

2-26-11 Parliament decided to postpone Monday’s council meeting; To be held March 6, 2011

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. Parliament decided to postpone the Council meeting to be held on Monday to Sunday of next week to allow more deputies for County services
2. The House issued a statement disseminated on the web saying the delay is to allow them to fully communicate with citizens and identify their needs, demands, and provide feedback to the House on Sunday the 6th
3. The remainder of the article discussed the demonstrations held on Friday

2-26-11 Baghdad and Beijing agree to develop economic cooperation

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

1. Baghdad and Beijing agreed to develop economic and trade cooperation during the next term
2. Talabani expressed his thanks for China's support for Iraq in the international forums, especially with regard to lifting of international sanctions
3. The Deputy of Foreign Affairs of China said China seeks to promote the work of Chinese companies in projects within the oil, electricity, construction and reconstruction underway in Iraq
4. Maliki and the Chinese Foreign Minister discussed bilateral relations and expanding cooperation between the two countries in all areas

2-26-11Arab League council holds session next Monday

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The important part of this article is related to the topic of the summit in Baghdad
2. The permanent representative to the Arab Leage Sheikh Khalfa bin Ali Al-Harithi said the matter of whether the summit will take place will be deicided on during the upcoming meeting of the Arab Foreign Ministers

This article makes it sound as if it is not yet a foregone conclusion that the summit will be held in Baghdad during March 28-29.

2-26-11 Osman: Kurdistan will approve the nomination of Mr. Chalabi of the Ministry of the Interior if the offer for the position officially

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A member of the House for the Kurdish coalition blocs said there is no formal offer for the nomination of Chalabi for the Interior Minister
2. Othman said he learned of Chalabi's nomination through the media noting that if he was nominated by the National Alliance, they will accept it to resolve the question of the security ministries
3. He said that Maliki announced the security ministries will be agreed upon during the close of the period, and if not, the blocs will settle the matter as he will offer several candidates for the positions
4. Maliki hasn't yet presented any candidates for the ministries
5. Othman said the political blocs must find a solution to the security ministries and said it is not reasonable to allow a full year to go by without forming a government

2-26-11 Skype chat - Okie Oil Man on MTT

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ RUMORS

1. Okie has been on the phone with Iraq for the last 2 hours
2. Base rate is $3.22
3. GOI is seated and budget is now official as of 2am
4. Next week is our week
5. Over 3,000 contractors paid
6. 30% of the budget was released today; they are spending money now
7. Okie is saying on the call that the UST is there to help them RV since they do not know how to do it
8. Since the budget is "official", they can now spend the budget at the RV rate

***************************************************************************

2:33 PM  Okie is saying this live on MTT [****] He has been on the phone with Iraq for 2 hours [****] Base rate 3.22 he says [****] The Gov is seated and Budget is passed and NOW official as of 2 am [****] He said Gov is seated and next week is our week and He prays it is true - because it is coming strate from Iraq with a translator for the last several hours [****] okie has been on phone with iraq - budget was only officially settled this morning at 2 am their time - base rate is approx $3.22 - parliament meeting this afternoon - smoke screens have been there - government is seated - budget is passed and made official at 2 am this morning - now paying in dinar to employees - loading smart cards tuesday - [****] [****] The official GOV has now been formed! Over 3000 contractors paid - Budget in effect NOW officially! It is an absolute that we will have an RV with in the next few days OKIE says! [****] Today they launched 30% of the Budget today - they are spending MONEY NOW!! [****] Okie says he is just the messenger - He has NO agenda but to deliver the NEWEST information given to all of us! [****] blueice114 does okie think we are good for next week [*****]  - Yes [****] Timeline tonight - Wed. 

 

2-26-11 Frank26 Post: KTF Missions 2/25/11

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on DD

The most important or interesting items from Frank's post are below

1. What happened with the demonstrations is good for our investments
2. TV said citizens in general were well behaved
3. TV interviewed Iraqis on the streets and 2 things were consistent.  They want their economy and currency to be strong
4. Iraqi's told TV they will do one demonstration per month until their demands are met by Maliki
5. Frank believes the violence will escalate with each demonstration
6. Frank is suggesting that Maliki's request for some leaders to resign is related to the idea that "sewers had to be cleaned"
7. Maliki told people on TV their ration cards would not be ready, but that he would give them 15,000 IQDs this coming Sunday
8. Maliki hints that the GOI spots are still being fought for and that he will give the 3 remaining ministries this Sunday
9. Delta says that the articles are exaggerating right now
10. The demonstrations asked 2 important questions during the noise...#3 above
11. On the 1st of March, the budget goes into effect.  It would be tragic if it were left at 1170

2-26-11 UN prepares comprehensive Briefing Book on Iraq

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The UN prepared a briefing book, which was created by international partners for the purpose of informing forthcoming discussions between Iraqi authorities and international partners on key areas of mutual interest
2. There are 2 parts:

• Part I addresses key policy issues, including: macroeconomic challenges; development planning and prioritization; governance and public sector reform; anti-corruption; private sector development; social protection; and the challenges of regional cooperation and internal disputed territories.
• Part II focuses on sectoral and cross-cutting issues, including: human rights protection, civil society and the media; gender mainstreaming; basic social services; water resources management; agriculture; environment; energy; transport and telecommunications; and cultural heritage.

3. An except from the Economic Development Challenges Recommendation section is below.

RECOMMENDATIONS
Continue to adhere to a sound monetary and exchange-rate policy framework. To preserve
hard-won gains in disinflation and de-dollarization, an appropriate monetary and exchange-rate
policy framework needs to be set in place. In that regard, maintaining a healthy level of
international reserves is crucial in preserving the stability of the Iraqi dinar, and in avoiding the
resurgence of currency substitution and inflation with accompanying socioeconomic effects,
particularly on the poor. To address this, monetary authorities should continue to carefully
monitor the emergence of possible inflationary pressures in the economy.

Isn't that interesting?  "To preserve had-won gains in disinflation and de-dollarization, an appropriate monetary and exchange rate framework needs to be set in place".  Please note there are many tools that can be used to support a country's monetary policy.   One such tool is exchange rates.  So, this recommendation is for Iraq to use exchange rates to support their monetary policy in order to preserve the gains in disinflation and de-dollarization (removal of US dollars).   The words "to be set in place" are also important because they tell us they obviously haven't yet put this exchange rate framework in place.  Now what could this all mean?  RV?

2-26-11 Sistani hails Friday’s demonstrations; Warns GOI of the repercussions if they don’t continue efforts

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. The religious authority, al-Sistani, hailed the demonstrations witnessed by the country on Friday
2. He warned the Iraqi government on the current approach in the management of the state and invited them to take critical decisions regarding canceling privileges of members of the House, past and present provincial councils, senior officials, and told them to refrain from the development of new government positions because of the large sums of money it will take to fund them
3. He called for the House and the GOI to take serious and concrete steps to improve public services and noted that these measures should improve the power and the ration card items, provide jobs, and fight against rampant corruption in various government departments

Sounds like he's referring to Allawi's National Council group?

2-26-11 Talabani meets with former British Prime Minister John Major in Kuwait

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. In Kuwait, Talabani met with 26 heads and former British Prime Minister John Major
2. Talabani said during his meeting that Iraq has made considerable achievements after the liberation from dictatorship in the areas of politics, economy, development and social progress in the country
3. In the same context, he also shed light on the political process and democracy emerging in Iraq, as well as the most important political and security challenges and other outstanding issues

2-26-11 GOI Spokesman: Parliament to hold emergency meeting tomorrow

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this posting on TCN

1. The Council of Ministers will hold an emergency meeting tomorrow to activate the work of the ministries, governors, and the development of urgent operational plans

2-25-11 Recap of the day's events/postings

Facts:

1.       Breaking news - violence in Iraq

2.       Iraq Trade Ministry: Iraq’s WTO ascension; Asking for US support over next few days

3.       Source: Maliki, Barzani, and Allawi to meet next week

4.       Economic Commission: Iraq’s budget deficit will be addressed by raising revenue

5.       Baghdad province: investment will be able to solve all the crises occurring in the country

6.       Commerce Minister announces the distribution of the amounts of compensatory early next week

7.       end demonstrations in Karbala and local governments are implementing demands

8.       9 dead and 120 wounded, the outcome of events Friday in Iraq's provinces

9.       Nujafi says iraq in new phrase and parliament is supreme

10.   Hasnawi: Parliament may pass a resolution Monday to suspend the first sacking of the provincial councils

11.   Basra governor resignation confirmed

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.       None

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.       Skype chat - Ray's update from Steve I

Where Are We At?

1.       It goes without saying that the big news of the day is the demonstrations.  At last count, 11 were killed, 51 policemen were wounded, and 120 people were wounded.  Also, buildings were burned, including the government building in Fallujah.  As a result of the demonstrations, Maliki asked for officials in some provinces to step down, and the governor of Basra announced his resignation.  Some officials received protestor’s demands at the end of the demonstration.  In related news, Parliament said they will be making the decisions on which government officials should either be suspended or be asked to step down

2.       In government formation news, it was reported that Maliki, Barzani, and Allawi will meet next week to discuss the security postions as well as the National Council

3.       On the budget, it was reported that the deficit would be closed by unplanned revenues from either increased oil production or the price of oil

4.       In miscellaneous news, Nujaifi said that Iraq is passing through a new phase which is developing plans for reform and pointed out that Parliament will take a new supreme authority in the country.  Also, it was reported by the trade minister that the distribution of compensatory payments for the ration card items will go out next week

5.       On the rumor front, Ray said that the TV said they will present the 3 security candidates in Parliament next week

What’s left?

1.    Vote on the budget – Done!

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total)

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.      February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)

2.      February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!

3.      February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 

4.      February 25  -- Large demonstration

5.      February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

6.      March 29-30 – Arab Summit

7.      May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies

8.      May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

9.      June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.       I read something where someone said that the demonstrations today were peaceful as expected.  Given the thousands that attended and the statistics above, I guess one could make that argument.  But, the demonstrations seemed pretty violent to me.  I watched some of it live and saw policement being pelted by all kinds of things.  They were also wielding their batons trying to hit demonstrators, and the demonstrators were doing their fair share of violent acts.  In any case, I think the demonstrations were effective in terms of getting the government to seriously focus on their demands.  Nujaifi’s comment about Iraq passing through a new phase which is developing plans for reform is likely related directly to this idea

2.       Regarding the government formation, the news and a rumor from Ray state that the security positions will be presented next week.  Iraq’s week starts on Sunday.  Also, if you look above, you’ll see there is a constitutional deadline of the 28^th for Maliki to form the government.  I’m not sure if that is truly the case, but it was stated in an article by a member of the state of law, which I have an entry for here.  On the 9^th of this month, he stated that the Constitution allows a commander to nominate the appropriate people to the post and resolve the security files by the end of the month.  Let’s hope Maliki, Allawi, and Barzani have that meeting before the 28^th

3.       Going back to Nujaifi’s comment about parliament taking a new supreme authority in the country, I find that interesting.  What does that mean?  What’s that mean in relation to Maliki?  Look what happened today when Maliki asked some officials to step down.  Parliament said they’d review those decisions and make the decisions on who will or will not step down.  That happened to Maliki?  Is he truly losing his power as some are suggesting?  Interesting.  The members of parliament are getting braver by the moment!