Facts:
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. Today’s news was not like yesterday’s news. We’re back to normal today. It started with Osman saying that Allawi, Maliki, and Jaafari are all to blame for the delays in the government formation. He said there lacks transparency and a desire to bring the government formation issues to the House for resolution. Then, we see Maliki reject Allawi’s candidates for the Defense Ministry….again. But, Allawi’s camp responds back and says they have another candidate, and even more candidates if their candidate is rejected…again. Then, the State of Law said that the List did not provide candidates for the ministry of Defense and stressed that these reports were not accurate! With regards to the strategic policy council, Maliki’s bloc said that Allawi cannot have it voted on in Parliament, and they “invited” Allawi to change the law so that it is acceptable to all parties. Allawi shot back an article where he said that he hopes the lack of commitment by the political blocs (referring to Maliki’s blocs) to Barzani’s agreements is a result of a well intended mistake. He then went on to say that the country doesn’t need any additional problems and that they need to fully address the issues. In related news, Nujaifi is scheduled to visit Sistani to discuss a number of outstanding issues, including those issues related to the government formation and services for citizens. Also, Barzani, Gen. Austin, and Jeffrey met to discuss issues related to the political and security situation. They stressed the need to resolve the issues quickly and before the Arab summit. In other news, 240 lawyers demanded the Federal Court decision be canceled and want an investigation.
2. The demonstrations continue in Iraq. People are protesting the lack of services, electricity, jobs, and living standards. In a somewhat related article, the GOI allocated 500 bil dinar for the purpose of meeting Maliki’s objective regarding giving people 15,000 dinar in compensation for the lack of ration cards.
3. More news of the tariff surfaced today. One article said the tariffs are angering people because it will increase prices. However, the GOI is saying the tariffs are being put in place to protect the local products. In other news not posted here, it was said the GOI might delay rolling out the second portion of the tariffs in March. Another article made it seem as if the decision was made to postpone it.
4. Regarding Chapter 7, an article stated that the British Ambassador strongly supports getting Iraq fully out of Chapter 7. He referred to their “new government” and said security there has improved considerably.
5. In rumor news, someone’s friend who lives in Iraq said there were no big screen TVs or platforms. But, they also said there were big screen TVs and platforms setup for the superbowl. Frank is saying that Maliki and Shabibi have been working together closely. He says that if they vote on the budget this Sunday, it requires a fully seated GOI to implement it. Another rumor stated that Iraqi sub-contractors said there are no ration cards, there are 4 seats to be filled for the government, they will be a new dinar and coins, and that Kuwait is the only country stopping Iraq from getting out of Chapter 7. Night suggests the IMF can force the RV, and he thinks that China might be stalling the RV. He also thinks that Iraq wasn’t ready and is playing catch up to meet the IMF, WB, and WTO requirements.
What’s left?
1. Reading of the budget for the third time
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (6)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 13 – 3rd reading of the budget
2. February 17 – GCC Meeting
3. February 28 – Constitutional deadline related to filling security ministries (mentioned in an article today, but I haven’t confirmed)
4. February 25th -- Large demonstration online
5. March 23 – Arab Summit
6. May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies
7. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. On the government formation, nothing will get accomplished unless Maliki and Allawi sit and address issues in earnest. Malik can’t keep rejecting all of Allawi’s candidates without justification and not expect some sort of adverse response. The news is already out there regarding Maliki’s desire to reject all candidates so that he can get his preferred candidates in. This is going to pose a problem because Barzani’s agreements include allowing Allawi some of the vacant ministries. On a brighter note, it was said in an article today that Allawi and Maliki seem to be coming to agreement. Let’s hope that’s really true. Clearly the demonstrations haven’t stopped, and with no progress on the government formation and many people in poverty, Iraq cannot escape what is happening to other Arab countries in the Middle East. That said, it is encouraging to see that Barzani, Jeffrey, and Gen. Austin met to discuss the government formation issues. It is also good to see that Nujaifi intends to meet with Sistani to discuss the same. These are important people and who can help move things forward.
2. One lawyer can do a lot of damage. I can’t imagine what 240 can do! If they are successful, we’ll see the Federal Court dissolve and get replaced. This will likely mean the ruling will be overturned and the independent bodies will become independent again. If this should happen, then as Night suggests, we may also see Parliament give a vote of no confidence to Maliki. We know where it goes from there.
3. The third reading of the budget is this Sunday. While I believe that the budget isn’t required for an RV, it understood that Iraq must have a full government to ratify the budget. Unless, they delay the ratification of the budget, the 13th is a day of interest. Following the 13th, Iraq meets with the GCC on the 17th. Frank said they need to RV prior to the meeting with the GCC. So, next week is a week to watch. The last day of interest is the end of this month. Today’s article suggested that Maliki has until the 28th to complete the ministries. Otherwise, he surpasses the Constitutional deadline. This would suggest that Talabani could call on someone else to take the PM spot and form the government.
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