Facts:
1. CBI auctions
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. Not a big news day today, and the news is pretty fragmented. In government formation news, it appears that Allawi was set to resign from the Presidency of the National Council, but then another article came out saying that outside pressure forced him to cancel his announcement speech. In related news, the List said that they are still waiting for a response from Maliki over the issue of security ministers. A member of the list said there is no justification for the delays given that Maliki has all the nominees. He also reiterated that per the Erbil agreements, the List is supposed to get the Defense Ministry. A member of the National Alliance said that we should see the 3 security ministries resolved and voted on next week
2. Regarding the demonstrations tomorrow, Iraq reported they expect a wave of demonstrations to take place throughout Iraq tomorrow. Iraq officials warned that insurgents may exploit the occasion and attack the rallies of demonstrators. During Maliki’s speech, he warned of the same and told people to stay away from the demonstrations because they are being organized by supporters of the Hessein and al-Qaida groups. In another article, it was reported that there are over 40 documents describing planned terrorist acts that are supposed to occur during the demonstrations tomorrow. In related news, Maliki was said to be upset over the officials who have fled Iraq instead of staying to listen to the demands of the demonstrators. It was reported that those fleeing trie dto take 1,000,200 thousand dollars out of Iraq
3. The good news for today is that it was reported that China will continue to give strong support for the completion of the requirements to lift Chapter 7 sanctions
4. On the rumor front, Frank reported that Maliki gave some of his powers to Allawi in order to share the blame that is coming from the demonstrators. He also said Allawi is in London and that Allawi said there will be a succession. Frank and team will be trying to find out what “succession” means. Frank reported that CNN said the IQD is about to RV. Someone else listening to the radio heard them say that the dinar is about to RV soon at a rate of $3.22. Also, someone who seems to be very well connected reported that the government was fully formed at 12:30 on Feb 2, including all the ministers. His/her sources know the exact date for when this will happen, but he/she does not know, but will be given a heads up. Peepaw was told by a former defense department that the government is fully formed too. He was told that the 3 security ministries are not needed before the RV and that since the budget is done, they will need to begin removing the 3 zeros as the CBI noted they would
What’s left?
1. Vote on the budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
4. Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues (I believe this is done)
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on the budget – Done!
3. February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
4. February 25 -- Large demonstration
5. February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
6. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
7. May 1 – CBI must have transfer DFI monies
8. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
9. June 30 – DFI expires
Note: I pulled out the March 1 date associated with Joe P's information about the Foreign Exchange Commission. A reader on this site, Tom, had a conversation with Ali about that. Ali said that information isn't true. Thanks Tom!
What’s It All Mean?
1. In terms of government formation, we absolutely have not made any ground. The 3 security minister positions seem to get moved out further and further. The same can be said of the issues over Allawi’s National Council position and group.
2. Regarding the demonstrations, it would have been nice to hear Maliki announce in his speech today the RV, but we didn’t see that. Not even a hint. It appears to me they will take their chances and let tomorrow fly by. I guess we’ll see what tomorrow’s news brings us
3. It was intersting seeing China pop up suddenly, but it’s good because whenever we see China and this investment, the news isn’t normally as positive. But today’s news was good. We want to see China giving full support to Iraq getting out of the sanctions, and that is exactly what they gave us today
4. In regards to rumors, I thought it was interesting that Frank mentioned CNN reported the dinar would RV, and the rumor of the person hearing the same on the radio. Is this just buzz getting around? Or, do they know something more than we do about the timing of the RV?
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