Facts:
5. Central Bank: the right to request the Parliament of borrowing from the reserve in times of crisis.
Rumors:
Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):
The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):
Where Are We At?
1. In government formation news, the National Alliance today said that there is a sub-committee of political blocs setup to resolve the disputes in the Political Council. He said that the National Council of the policies will soon be the subject followed by the security ministries. The List said it ruled out the possibility of Parliament receiving the 3 security ministers for a vote this week. He said Maliki is in control of this and that the List already submitted their candidates and is waiting for a response. He added that the 3 ministries should be resolved by end of month. The big news of the day, however, is that Parliament canceled this week’s meetings until the 28th. It was first reported the meetings were canceled because of arguments, but it was later reported that Nujaifi instructed all members of parliament to get out into their neighborhoods and listen to the demands of the people. A number of members of Parliament said they will be joining the demonstrations with the people. In other news, a member of the National Alliance said the names given out by the media for the 3 security ministries are not accurate. He said the political blocs did not meet on this subject and that Maliki is on the file and that there is no specific timeframe to hand over the candidates for a vote in the House. He further stated that Maliki giving the names over this week or next is pure speculation
2. In budget news, the budget was ratified!
3. In other news, the CBI said that legislative authority will decide whether to allow the GOI to borrow from cash reserves in the event of a financial crisis. Saleh also stated that Iraq is witnessing a crisis that could escalate on the 25th of this month. He said the CBI is linked to parliament and parliament will decide whether to borrow from the CBI in the event of a crisis
4. Today’s news reported that the real purpose of Maliki’s visit in Kuwait was to make arrangements with Kuwait for his family’s escape from Iraq in the event of the break-out of a revolution in the country. The article stated that Maliki tried to establish an urgent meeting with Obama while in the US embassy in Kuwait, but Obama declined the meeting saying that Maliki wasn’t following proper protocol. Maliki was angered by Obama’s response. The article stated that Obama’s response to Maliki indicates that the US administration is no longer siding with Maliki for his failure in meeting the conditions upon which the current government was formed. In other news not logged, it was reported that Maliki is trying to buy journalist in an attempt to have them write positive articles about him in an effort to try to reduce the possibilities of having a violent demonstration on the 25th
5. On the rumor front, Frank is suggesting that the final budget numbers implies they need a rate between $3-$4 to make the numbers work. He said that Maliki has not turned in the 3 security minister candidates. Joe P said that the Foreign Exchange Commission demanded the ceasing of sales of dinar effective 3/1. He postulated that the GOI may turn the large demonstration on the 25th into a celebration. He says since the budget is done, we could see the RV anytime. Night said that the Iraqi’s will see the RV first. He said that the budget and the government need to be activated by Maliki. He said that he believes Maliki was told the RV will happen either with or without him. Finally, Night is reminding us that Muhammed Allawi is looking to bring Maliki down with allegations of corruption etc
What’s left?
1. Ratification of budget – Done!
2. Closure on Security positions (3 in total)
3. Formal announcement of government
5. Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)
6. RV/RI
7. HCL
Important Dates
1. February 17 – GCC Meeting (no news of this yet)
2. February 20 – Vote on budget : Done!
3. February (sometime after the budget is voted on) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies
4. February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government
5. February 25 -- Large demonstration online
6. March 1 -- Sales of dinar must cease per Foreign Exchange Commission
7. March 29-30 – Arab Summit
8. May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies
9. May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires
10. June 30 – DFI expires
What’s It All Mean?
1. Beginning with the government formation news, if the news of the sub-committees is true, we need to watch for a ruling on the National Council policies before we can expect to see Maliki hand over the 3 candidates for the security ministries. That said, this linkage was never made before. The only thing that the National Council policies has been linked to recently is the budget. It was reported that a vote on the National Council policies would come after the budget was approved. But, we’ve since seen news of a committee deciding that the vote on the National Council would not go to parliament, and of course, Allawi’s response to that was not positive. Now, we’re also seeing news from the National Alliance that there is no pressing need to complete the security ministries and that a vote either this week or next week on them is pure speculation. Well, to that I say you can’t always trust what the National Alliance has to say. We’ve also heard Maliki speak of the security ministries in a similar manner suggesting that there is no hurry. Unfortunately, he made that statement a reality, but that strategy appears to have backfired given the sentiment of protesters regarding their views of Maliki
2. Regarding the demonstration on the 25th, Nujaifi’s move to postpone Parliament meetings for an entire week was really puzzling. Med thinks it was a brilliant move on his part and suggests it is being done so that members of parliament can effectively separate themselves from Maliki, who is not in good graces with demonstrators these days. Remember, demonstrators recently called for his ousting. One thing is certain, Maliki is feeling the heat from the demonstrations. Why else would he seek to secure his family and create an escape route in the event of the demonstrations on the 25th going terribly south? But, the other thing that is certain is that Maliki still hasn’t completed the government by handing over the 3 security ministries. Why not? What does he have to gain besides control over the security ministries? Why did he expect support from the US/Obama? Can’t be because he did the right thing. Obama’s message was pretty clear. Why hold out when you fear for your life and your family’s life? Night has been saying that an RV won’t be enough. He has said that Maliki and his cronies will need to go. Perhaps he’s right on this. The people are not happy with Maliki at all. The RV should have been done long ago to avert any public uprising. But, that’s not where we’re at today
3. Regarding the rumors, the rumor from PD is interesting—especially when we see the news of late. The news is confusing! It’s not that the news is far fetched, but I look at the ME situation and think to myself that no one can be so dumb as to intentionally drag things out right up against, and perhaps even beyond, a HUGE demonstration where the chance of it turning violent is really high. While Nujaifi’s intentions are good regarding the cancelation of the Parliament meetings so that members of parliament could talk to people and get their input, wouldn’t it be far better to have pushed Maliki and others to hand over the names of the security ministers prior to the demonstration and form the final government? Seems that would have been better, unless the people of Iraq know something we don’t, which is not a far fetched possibility either. Nujaifi is too smart. So I find it hard to believe that he would choose this option. On the other hand, if things are further along than we are lead to believe, then I agree with Med. This is a smart move on his part. Joe P seems to think that an RV announcement is a possibility just prior to the 25th. Then, the demonstrations on the 25th would certainly be peaceful. In fact, it would likely be celebratory. As I write this, I see that Delta just received a call from the CBI saying that Friday’s demonstration will very likely be a celebration. I hope Joe P and Delta have different sources, and I hope they are all right for Iraq’s sake. I’d much rather read about a celebration on the 26th than violence and bloodshed.
