2-15-11 Translation of PDF - Postpone the opening of trading on the shares of Company Bank of the Middle East to the meeting Tuesday, 02/15/2011

Highlights/Thoughts


Update 2-16-11:
Kaperoni had his friend translate the article, and this is what he sent back to Kap:

Hey Kap,
 

I did look at the Stock Exchange PDF and I think all these translations are a bit off. To me, what I understood is that whatever company or bank this is that was supposed to be listed on the stock exchange, they had a delay because of deciding how much they were going to charge per share of stock in the company/bank. They said that they would be charging 1,070 Dinars per share (which just happens to be close to the current exchange rate per $1 US Dollar) and that they expect that the stock price would change up to 50%, depending on the exchange rate of the Iraqi Dinar, which they expect to go up. Even in Arabic, the way it was worded was weird and so this is what I got from it, that they were using the Iraqi Dinar exchange rate as a basis for deterring their stock price and that they would adjust the stock price depending on any changes in the rate of the Iraqi Dinar. Sounds positive, but I don't think this is directly linked to the RV per say. But maybe they know something we don't and that they know that the Dinar's exchange rate will be changing soon. Just a guess on my part, but certainly possible.

 

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Vintage sent me the email just below the line.  The url includes a link to a PDF, which Vintage referenced.  Thanks to Daniel, the PDF was translated by Peter and Grace.  Here is Daniel's reply to me in the email that he sent which contains the translations:

What I don't see are the pairings. They are stating a starting rate and meeting, but not saying the rate compared to a currency. Is it assumed to be against US dollars? Is it against Kuwait? Euro? It just doesn't say. However, it does say that the meeting is happening today. So that is good news. Also, on the bottom of the page, Grace told me that it included a list of "cc'd" agencies. Take this how you will, but on the inside of the GOI, this notice is semi-public because it was passed on to several agencies. 

Daniel raises excellent questions about the rate.  Nevertheless, it is interesting to see the Dinar expressed as a decimal number.  Furthermore, it is VERY interesting to see that a Middle East Iraqi currency exchange has been setup and has met with investors and brokers today.  What did they meet about?  The rate of the Dinar initially set at 1.070 with a change of up to 50%.  Given this is their first meeting, it's reasonable to expect that they are gearing up for trading the Dinar with investors.  Interesting.  Interesting timing too given what's happening in Iraq, the government formation, HCL, Kuwaiti files, etc.

Thank you Vintage, Daniel, Grace, and Peter!
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(Note: If you click on the url above, you will need to find the article with the title 'Postpone the opening of trading on the shares of Company Bank of the Middle East to the meeting Tuesday, 02/15/2011' and click on it.)

Hello.  I'm one of the many hopefuls out there and read your blog regularly.  I see many people mentioning February 15 as being an important date.  But, I've not seen anyone mention the included link postponing the Bank of the Middle East opening on the ISX.  I cannot translate the PDF, but perhaps one of the other readers can.  It may just be a coincidence, but those things seem to be watched closely.  I have no connections or anything like that.


Translations of the PDF:

Grace's Translation:

Gifting you our best regards. . .

This is to inform you that the first meeting/seating to discuss and negotiate the invested shares of the Middle East Iraqi currency excahnge will be now on Tuesday,, February 15, 2011 vs Sunday.  This is due to the need to complete the necessary proceedures  between the investors and the brokers at the main center of exhange.

Notice that the current rate is projected at  1.070 Dinar and in the first meeting, it will be decided that the rate will be increased by 50% from the projected rate; which will be higher.This increase will take place ONLY during the frst meeting

With appreciation

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Peter's Translation

Gifting you our best regards. . .

This is to inform you that the first meeting/seating to discuss and negotiate the invested shares of the Middle East Iraqi currency excahnge will be now on Tuesday,, February 15, 2011 vs Sunday.  This is due to the need to complete the necessary proceedures between the investors and the brokers at the main center of exhange.

Notice that the current rate is projected at 1.070 Dinar and A CHANGE OF UP TO 50% MAXIMUM COULD BE DECIDED UPPON IN THE FIRST MEETING ONLY.

With appreciation

2-15-11 Recap of today's events/postings

Facts:

1.       No CBI auction  due to holiday

2.       Abbasi: Agreement and a large proportion of three candidates to fill the security ministries

3.       Mahmoud Othman: the political blocs was seriously interested in passage of the budget end of the week

4.       Finance Minister announces postponement of work the new customs tariff indefinitely

5.       Parliamentary Finance Committee: will be to reduce the salaries of those with special grades and increase the salaries of staff

6.       Economic Commission for parliamentary reveal its report on the federal budget

7.       Iraq announces rise in the inflation rate by 2% last month

8.       Msdermtalaa reveals deal with the Kurds, al-Maliki to pass a federal budget for the current year

9.       Barzani, in the presence of al-Maliki telephoned Allawi adherence to agreements Erbil

10.   Iraqiya deems fourth vice president burden for treasury Tuesday, February 15th 2011 2:23 PM

11.   Khalid Al-Maliki to visit Asadi: Kuwait will contribute significantly to solving security and economic boundaries, debt and reparations

12.   Nabil Hrbo: Iyad Allawi will take over the presidency of the policy after the Baghdad

13.   Sabah al-Saadi: Maliki intends to build devices belonging to him before naming security ministries

14.   Alfalh: Parliament will be held without interruption until the vote on the budget

Rumors:

Of Interest (rumors that I find of particular interest either because of who said it or because of how I think it relates to what is happening right now):

1.       Skype chat : Rumor from nameless

The Rest (doesn’t mean these are not happening):

1.       Skype chat - Blaino/Okie rumors

Where Are We At?

1.       In government formation news, the National Alliance said that the leaders of the political blocs are discussing the 3 security positions.  The article stated that 80% of them agree on the 2^nd candidate and 60% do not agree on a 4^th candidate.  The 1^st and 3^rd candidate was not discussed.  In the same article, it was mentioned that Maliki said yesterday that he will announce the names of the 3 candidates in the next few days.  In other news, it was reported that Maliki and Allawi met with Barzani, and he telephoned James Jeffrey into the call.  They discussed Barzani’s agreement and the related issues as well as the political situation in Iraq.  Barzani told Maliki to complete what was agreed upon regarding the National Council as well as the security ministries.  The article stated that since the Jeffrey was in the meeting, the US was insistent on the implementation of partnership agreements between Allawi and Maliki.  In a related artcile, the List said that Allawi would take office as the President of the Supreme Council after the Arab summit.  Finally, the National Alliance said that the nomination of the candidates for the ministries of security is the highest priority.  He said that the National Council vote and the submission of the security ministers are linked.  He explaned this is why there is a delay on selecting the security ministries.  Regarding the vote on the 3 presidencies, the List is still saying they will not vote on the proposal for a fourth VP.  They believe that the National Alliance should give up the 3^rd VP (they have 2 VPs) and allow the 3^rd position to go to the Turkman.

2.       There was a lot of budget news today.  Today is the 15^th, but we didn’t see news of the budget passing as they promised.  Instead, the Kurdish bloc said they are interested and serious about passing the budget this week.  He noted they were supposed to pass the budget today, but the House did not finish discussing it yesterday due to the lack of a quorum.  Also, the Economic Committee said they will end the writing of the final report of the budget today.  There will be new amendments related to the distribution of the financial allocations in the investment budget to the provinces producing oil.  The VP of the Finance Committtee said they amended a number of items contained in the budget and will present it at the next meeting.  There were amendments to salaries and reductions in the operating expenses.  A senior source reported that Maliki agreed with Saleh on the number of points that were preventing the Kurdistan Alliance from voting on the budget.  Lastly, a member of the National Coalition said that parliament will remain in session without interruption until they vote on the budget Thursday (17^th).

3.       Today’s news confirmed that the tariffs are postponed indefinitely

4.       The Ministry of Planning and Development said the average inflation rate rose by 2% in the previous month.  He cited the reason for the increase is due to higher rental rates and higher food prices (imported foods).

5.       In Kuwaiti news, Maliki’s meeting with Kuwait is confirmed and set for the 15^th.  They will be discussing the files that are stuck, including those on security, economy, border demarcation, debt, and compensation.  An MP from the National Alliance said that Maliki’s visit was scheduled for last month, but maybe was postponed due to the work involved with filling the ministries, which he said this would contribute significantly to solving the outstanding issues between the 2 countries.

6.       On the rumor front, there were a number of rumors, but I only had a chance to report on 2.  One confirmed that there were cash outs earlier and suggested something big was about to happen.  Then, Okie reported that great things are going to happen this week according to what he was told.  Blaino discussed a major US bank sending a memo out saying that they needed to prepare for significant cash transactions within 48 hours of Monday.

What’s left?

1.    Reading of the budget for the third time

2.    Closure on Security positions (3 in total) and the remaining unfilled positions (1) – Please note yesterday’s post incorrectly reported (6) instead of (1).  The correct number is 1.  There are 4 positions in total that remain to be filled.

3.    Formal announcement of government

4.    Agreement on outstanding Kuwait issues

5.    Lifting of remaining Chapter 7 sanctions (Kuwait related)

6.    RV/RI

7.    HCL

Important Dates

1.      February (on/after Tuesday, but sometime this week) – Parliament votes on the National Council of Supreme policies 

2.      February 15 – Maliki meets with Kuwait

3.      February 16 – 3rd reading of the budget

4.      February 17 – Vote on the budget

5.      February 17 – GCC Meeting

6.      February 28 – Constitutional deadline to form government

7.      February 25  -- Large demonstration online

8.      March 29-30 – Arab Summit

9.      May 1 – CBI must be ready to transfer DFI monies

10.  May 22 – Presidential order 13303 expires

11.  June 30 – DFI expires

What’s It All Mean?

1.       Things continue to move forward as it relates to the government formation.  Maliki and Allawi are finally working together and moving things forward.  There is definitely outside pressure from the US to force both to implement Barzani’s agreements as evidenced by Jeffrey being involved in their meetings,  and  Barzani seems to be stepping up by telling Maliki to basically “get it all done”.  What is interesting is the news about Maliki’s visit to Kuwait.  The interesting part is what the MP said about Maliki’s first visit being delayed because the ministries were not filled.  Furthermore, he states that filling the ministries would go a long way to solving the outstanding issues between the 2 countries.  If I interpret that correctly, it might mean that they filled the ministry positions.  Otherwise, why not reschedule the Wednesday meeting since the filling of the ministries seemed to be a priority for Kuwait?  Another way to look at it might be to suggest that Kuwait told Maliki to have a full government before you come to Kuwait to talk about getting out of Chapter 7 etc.  Maybe?  Why would a complete government go a long way to resolving the outstanding issues with Kuwait?  Maybe $23 billion owed to them?  Having a government might suggest they can RV/RI.  It would certainly give Kuwait far more confidence about Iraq’s ability to repay them with real money.

2.       Regarding the issues related to the National Council, it was mentioned in the article today that the delays on the National Council were the cause of the delays on the security ministries.  As we saw today, Barzani told Maliki to implement what was agreed in Barzani’s agreement.  That includes the National Council and the ministry positions.  Yesterday’s news said that there would be a vote on a draft law on the National Council in the next session.  Tomorrow is that “next session”.

3.       The news of inflation is going to cause a stir amongst the protesters.  I’m sure they already know about it, but Iraqi news is now acknowledging it.  All the cutting of salaries etc. isn’t going to help if the Iraqi’s don’t get what they need now.  This is just going to create more pressure on the GOI to form sooner rather than later.

2-15-11 Skype chat - Blaino/Okie rumors

Highlights/Thoughts
PLEASE DO NOT READ THIS IF YOU DO NOT WISH TO READ RUMORS

1. Okie says this week appears to hold great things according to what he received last night
2. Blaino says a major US bank was told in a memo on Monday morning that they should take steps to prepare for significant cash transactions in the next 48 hours
3. Okie says that Shabibi released the rate last Thursday night
4. He also says Parliament is in session (holiday or not)

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[OKIE_OIL_MAN] just on here for a short time--this week appears to hold great things according to what i received last night
[Blaino] OK, if you all read your script... then you know that the most recent "REAL" intel from "Known good sources" is that a major US Bank (No, not The US Bank chain) was told in a memo on Monday morning that they should take steps to prepare for "significant cash transactions" in the next 48 hours... so that would infer thru Wednesday morning.
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] shabbi stated rate last thursday night---
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] sources states (not me) this is the week
[OKIE_OIL_MAN] holiday or not---parliment is in session

2-15-11 Alfalh: Parliament will be held without interruption until the vote on the budget

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. A member of the National Coalition said that parliament will remain in session without interruption until they vote on the budget on Thursday
2. He said with regards to the controversy related to the voting of the 3 presidencies, the heads of the blocs and the Speaker held a meeting and agreed to vote on the 3 VPs all at once
3. He said some of the deputies from the List and the Sadrist movement objected to a single vote and preferred to vote individually

2-15-11 Sabah al-Saadi: Maliki intends to build devices belonging to him before naming security ministries

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. An MP for the National Alliance said that Maliki intends to build devices before naming the security ministries
2. The MP promised that the nomination of the candidates for the ministries of security is the highest priority
3. He discussed the specific on the budget allocations for the armed forces as well as the presidencies
4. The leader of the List said there is a link between the submission of the security ministers and the vote on the National Council for strategic policy
5. The reason for the link is that everyone is conditional on the Erbil agreements. Consequently, this delayed vote on the Council for strategic policies has delayed the vote on the security ministers

2-15-11 Nabil Hrbo: Iyad Allawi will take over the presidency of the policy after the Baghdad

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. An MP for the List said that Allawi will take office as the President of the Supreme Council of strategic policies after the Arab summit conference

2-15-11 Khalid Al-Maliki to visit Asadi: Kuwait will contribute significantly to solving security and economic boundaries, debt and reparations

Highlights/Thoughts
Click on the title of this posting to get the details of this article

1. An MP from the National Alliance said that Maliki's visit to Kuwait will go a long way to resolving outstanding issues between the 2 countries
2. He said that Maliki's visit was scheduled for last month, but maybe was postponed due to the work involved with filling the ministries, which he said would contribute significantly to solving the outstanding issues between the 2 countries
3. Maliki's meeting with Kuwait is tomorrow
4. He explained there are files that are stuck, including those on security, economic, border demarcation, debt, and compensation
5. He stated that Iraq seeks to resolve all of the issues and wants to build a sophisticated relationship with them